Bases metodológicas para un sistema de apoyo a la selección de especies en la restauración de la vegetación

RESUMEN El apoyo a la selección de especies a la restauración de la vegetación en España en los últimos 40 años se ha basado fundamentalmente en modelos de distribución de especies, también llamados modelos de nicho ecológico, que estiman la probabilidad de presencia de las especies en función de las condiciones del medio físico (clima, suelo, etc.). Con esta tesis se ha intentado contribuir a la mejora de la capacidad predictiva de los modelos introduciendo algunas propuestas metodológicas adaptadas a los datos disponibles actualmente en España y enfocadas al uso de los modelos en la selección de especies. No siempre se dispone de datos a una resolución espacial adecuada para la escala de los proyectos de restauración de la vegetación. Sin embrago es habitual contar con datos de baja resolución espacial para casi todas las especies vegetales presentes en España. Se propone un método de recalibración que actualiza un modelo de regresión logística de baja resolución espacial con una nueva muestra de alta resolución espacial. El método permite obtener predicciones de calidad aceptable con muestras relativamente pequeñas (25 presencias de la especie) frente a las muestras mucho mayores (más de 100 presencias) que requería una estrategia de modelización convencional que no usara el modelo previo. La selección del método estadístico puede influir decisivamente en la capacidad predictiva de los modelos y por esa razón la comparación de métodos ha recibido mucha atención en la última década. Los estudios previos consideraban a la regresión logística como un método inferior a técnicas más modernas como las de máxima entropía. Los resultados de la tesis demuestran que esa diferencia observada se debe a que los modelos de máxima entropía incluyen técnicas de regularización y la versión de la regresión logística usada en las comparaciones no. Una vez incorporada la regularización a la regresión logística usando penalización, las diferencias en cuanto a capacidad predictiva desaparecen. La regresión logística penalizada es, por tanto, una alternativa más para el ajuste de modelos de distribución de especies y está a la altura de los métodos modernos con mejor capacidad predictiva como los de máxima entropía. A menudo, los modelos de distribución de especies no incluyen variables relativas al suelo debido a que no es habitual que se disponga de mediciones directas de sus propiedades físicas o químicas. La incorporación de datos de baja resolución espacial proveniente de mapas de suelo nacionales o continentales podría ser una alternativa. Los resultados de esta tesis sugieren que los modelos de distribución de especies de alta resolución espacial mejoran de forma ligera pero estadísticamente significativa su capacidad predictiva cuando se incorporan variables relativas al suelo procedente de mapas de baja resolución espacial. La validación es una de las etapas fundamentales del desarrollo de cualquier modelo empírico como los modelos de distribución de especies. Lo habitual es validar los modelos evaluando su capacidad predictiva especie a especie, es decir, comparando en un conjunto de localidades la presencia o ausencia observada de la especie con las predicciones del modelo. Este tipo de evaluación no responde a una cuestión clave en la restauración de la vegetación ¿cuales son las n especies más idóneas para el lugar a restaurar? Se ha propuesto un método de evaluación de modelos adaptado a esta cuestión que consiste en estimar la capacidad de un conjunto de modelos para discriminar entre las especies presentes y ausentes de un lugar concreto. El método se ha aplicado con éxito a la validación de 188 modelos de distribución de especies leñosas orientados a la selección de especies para la restauración de la vegetación en España. Las mejoras metodológicas propuestas permiten mejorar la capacidad predictiva de los modelos de distribución de especies aplicados a la selección de especies en la restauración de la vegetación y también permiten ampliar el número de especies para las que se puede contar con un modelo que apoye la toma de decisiones. SUMMARY During the last 40 years, decision support tools for plant species selection in ecological restoration in Spain have been based on species distribution models (also called ecological niche models), that estimate the probability of occurrence of the species as a function of environmental predictors (e.g., climate, soil). In this Thesis some methodological improvements are proposed to contribute to a better predictive performance of such models, given the current data available in Spain and focusing in the application of the models to selection of species for ecological restoration. Fine grained species distribution data are required to train models to be used at the scale of the ecological restoration projects, but this kind of data are not always available for every species. On the other hand, coarse grained data are available for almost every species in Spain. A recalibration method is proposed that updates a coarse grained logistic regression model using a new fine grained updating sample. The method allows obtaining acceptable predictive performance with reasonably small updating sample (25 occurrences of the species), in contrast with the much larger samples (more than 100 occurrences) required for a conventional modeling approach that discards the coarse grained data. The choice of the statistical method may have a dramatic effect on model performance, therefore comparisons of methods have received much interest in the last decade. Previous studies have shown a poorer performance of the logistic regression compared to novel methods like maximum entropy models. The results of this Thesis show that the observed difference is caused by the fact that maximum entropy models include regularization techniques and the versions of logistic regression compared do not. Once regularization has been added to the logistic regression using a penalization procedure, the differences in model performance disappear. Therefore, penalized logistic regression may be considered one of the best performing methods to model species distributions. Usually, species distribution models do not consider soil related predictors because direct measurements of the chemical or physical properties are often lacking. The inclusion of coarse grained soil data from national or continental soil maps could be a reasonable alternative. The results of this Thesis suggest that the performance of the models slightly increase after including soil predictors form coarse grained soil maps. Model validation is a key stage of the development of empirical models, such as species distribution models. The usual way of validating is based on the evaluation of model performance for each species separately, i.e., comparing observed species presences or absence to predicted probabilities in a set of sites. This kind of evaluation is not informative for a common question in ecological restoration projects: which n species are the most suitable for the environment of the site to be restored? A method has been proposed to address this question that estimates the ability of a set of models to discriminate among present and absent species in a evaluation site. The method has been successfully applied to the validation of 188 species distribution models used to support decisions on species selection for ecological restoration in Spain. The proposed methodological approaches improve the predictive performance of the predictive models applied to species selection in ecological restoration and increase the number of species for which a model that supports decisions can be fitted.

Molecular tools to improve chestnut management: El Bierzo as a case study

The European chestnut (Castanea sativa Mill.) is a multipurpose species that has been widely cultivated around the Mediterranean basin since ancient times. New varieties were brought to the Iberian Peninsula during the Roman Empire, which coexist since then with native populations that survived the last glaciation. The relevance of chestnut cultivation has being steadily growing since the Middle Ages, until the rural decline of the past century put a stop to this trend. Forest fires and diseases were also major factors. Chestnut cultivation is gaining momentum again due to its economic (wood, fruits) and ecologic relevance, and represents currently an important asset in many rural areas of Europe. In this Thesis we apply different molecular tools to help improve current management strategies. For this study we have chosen El Bierzo (Castile and Leon, NW Spain), which has a centenary tradition of chestnut cultivation and management, and also presents several unique features from a genetic perspective (next paragraph). Moreover, its nuts are widely appreciated in Spain and abroad for their organoleptic properties. We have focused our experimental work on two major problems faced by breeders and the industry: the lack of a fine-grained genetic characterization and the need for new strategies to control blight disease. To characterize with sufficient detail the genetic diversity and structure of El Bierzo orchards, we analyzed DNA from 169 trees grafted for nut production covering the entire region. We also analyzed 62 nuts from all traditional varieties. El Bierzo constitutes an outstanding scenario to study chestnut genetics and the influence of human management because: (i) it is located at one extreme of the distribution area; (ii) it is a major glacial refuge for the native species; (iii) it has a long tradition of human management (since Roman times, at least); and (iv) its geographical setting ensures an unusual degree of genetic isolation. Thirteen microsatellite markers provided enough informativeness and discrimination power to genotype at the individual level. Together with an unexpected level of genetic variability, we found evidence of genetic structure, with three major gene pools giving rise to the current population. High levels of genetic differentiation between groups supported this organization. Interestingly, genetic structure does not match with spatial boundaries, suggesting that the exchange of material and cultivation practices have strongly influenced natural gene flow. The microsatellite markers selected for this study were also used to classify a set of 62 samples belonging to all traditional varieties. We identified several cases of synonymies and homonymies, evidencing the need to substitute traditional classification systems with new tools for genetic profiling. Management and conservation strategies should also benefit from these tools. The avenue of high-throughput sequencing technologies, combined with the development of bioinformatics tools, have paved the way to study transcriptomes without the need for a reference genome. We took advantage of RNA sequencing and de novo assembly tools to determine the transcriptional landscape of chestnut in response to blight disease. In addition, we have selected a set of candidate genes with high potential for developing resistant varieties via genetic engineering. Our results evidenced a deep transcriptional reprogramming upon fungal infection. The plant hormones ET and JA appear to orchestrate the defensive response. Interestingly, our results also suggest a role for auxins in modulating such response. Many transcription factors were identified in this work that interact with promoters of genes involved in disease resistance. Among these genes, we have conducted a functional characterization of a two major thaumatin-like proteins (TLP) that belongs to the PR5 family. Two genes encoding chestnut cotyledon TLPs have been previously characterized, termed CsTL1 and CsTL2. We substantiate here their protective role against blight disease for the first time, including in silico, in vitro and in vivo evidence. The synergy between TLPs and other antifungal proteins, particularly endo-p-1,3-glucanases, bolsters their interest for future control strategies based on biotechnological approaches.

Microstructural and mechanical characterization of annealed tungsten (W) and potassium-doped tungsten foils

Here we show that potassium-doped tungsten foil should be preferred to pure tungsten foil when considering tungsten laminate pipes for structural divertor applications. Potassium-doped tungsten materials are well known from the bulb industry and show an enhanced creep and recrystallization behaviour that can be explained by the formation of potassium-filled bubbles that are surrounding the elongated grains, leading to an interlocking of the microstructure. In this way, the ultra-fine grained (UFG) microstructure of tungsten foil can be stabilized and with it the extraordinary mechanical properties of the foil in terms of ductility, toughness, brittle-to-ductile transition, and radiation resistance. In this paper we show the results of three-point bending tests performed at room temperature on annealed pure tungsten and potassium-doped tungsten foils (800, 900, 1000, 1100, 1200, 1300, 1400, 1600, 1800, 2000, 2200, and 2400 °C for 1 h in vacuum). The microstructural assessment covers the measurement of the hardness and analyses of fractured surfaces as well as a comparison of the microstructure by optical microscopy. The results show that there is a positive effect of potassium-doped tungsten foils compared to pure tungsten foil and demonstrate the potential of the doped foil

Short-term response of the Ca cycle of a montane forest in Ecuador to low experimental CaCl2 additions

The tropical montane forests of the E Andean cordillera in Ecuador receive episodic Sahara- dust inputs particularly increasing Ca deposition. We added CaCl2 to isolate the effect of Ca deposition by Sahara dust to tropical montane forest from the simultaneously occurring pH effect. We examined components of the Ca cycle at four control plots and four plots with added Ca (2 × 5 kg ha?1 Ca annually as CaCl2) in a random arrangement. Between August 2007 and December 2009 (four applications of Ca), we determined Ca concentrations and fluxes in litter leachate, mineral soil solution (0.15 and 0.30 m depths), throughfall, and fine litterfall and Al con- centrations and speciation in soil solutions. After 1 y of Ca addition, we assessed fine-root bio- mass, leaf area, and tree growth. Only < 3% of the applied Ca leached below the acid organic layer (pH 3.5?4.8). The added CaCl2 did not change electrical conductivity in the root zone after 2 y. In the second year of fertilization, Ca retention in the canopy of the Ca treatment tended to decrease relative to the control. After 2 y, 21% of the applied Ca was recycled to soil with throughfall and litterfall. One year after the first Ca addition, fine-root biomass had decreased significantly. Decreasing fine-root biomass might be attributed to a direct or an indirect beneficial effect of Ca on the soil decomposer community. Because of almost complete association of Al with dissolved organic matter and high free Ca2+ : Al3+ activity ratios in solution of all plots, Al toxicity was unlikely. We conclude that the added Ca was retained in the system and had benefi- cial effects on some plants.

Advanced morphometric techniques applied to the study of human brain anatomy

El desarrollo de las técnicas de imágenes por resonancia magnética han permitido el estudio y cuantificación, in vivo, de los cambios que ocurren en la morfología cerebral ligados a procesos tales como el neurodesarrollo, el envejecimiento, el aprendizaje o la enfermedad. Un gran número de métodos de morfometría han sido desarrollados con el fin de extraer la información contenida en estas imágenes y traducirla en indicadores de forma o tamaño, tales como el volumen o el grosor cortical; marcadores que son posteriormente empleados para encontrar diferencias estadísticas entre poblaciones de sujetos o realizar correlaciones entre la morfología cerebral y, por ejemplo, la edad o la severidad de determinada enfermedad. A pesar de la amplia variedad de biomarcadores y metodologías de morfometría, muchos estudios sesgan sus hipótesis, y con ello los resultados experimentales, al empleo de un número reducido de biomarcadores o a al uso de una única metodología de procesamiento. Con el presente trabajo se pretende demostrar la importancia del empleo de diversos métodos de morfometría para lograr una mejor caracterización del proceso que se desea estudiar. En el mismo se emplea el análisis de forma para detectar diferencias, tanto globales como locales, en la morfología del tálamo entre pacientes adolescentes con episodios tempranos de psicosis y adolescentes sanos. Los resultados obtenidos demuestran que la diferencia de volumen talámico entre ambas poblaciones de sujetos, previamente descrita en la literatura, se debe a una reducción del volumen de la región anterior-mediodorsal y del núcleo pulvinar del tálamo de los pacientes respecto a los sujetos sanos. Además, se describe el desarrollo de un estudio longitudinal, en sujetos sanos, que emplea simultáneamente distintos biomarcadores para la caracterización y cuantificación de los cambios que ocurren en la morfología de la corteza cerebral durante la adolescencia. A través de este estudio se revela que el proceso de “alisado” que experimenta la corteza cerebral durante la adolescencia es consecuencia de una disminución de la profundidad, ligada a un incremento en el ancho, de los surcos corticales. Finalmente, esta metodología es aplicada, en un diseño transversal, para el estudio de las causas que provocan el decrecimiento tanto del grosor cortical como del índice de girificación en adolescentes con episodios tempranos de psicosis. ABSTRACT The ever evolving sophistication of magnetic resonance image techniques continue to provide new tools to characterize and quantify, in vivo, brain morphologic changes related to neurodevelopment, senescence, learning or disease. The majority of morphometric methods extract shape or size descriptors such as volume, surface area, and cortical thickness from the MRI image. These morphological measurements are commonly entered in statistical analytic approaches for testing between-group differences or for correlations between the morphological measurement and other variables such as age, sex, or disease severity. A wide variety of morphological biomarkers are reported in the literature. Despite this wide range of potentially useful biomarkers and available morphometric methods, the hypotheses and findings of the grand majority of morphological studies are biased because reports assess only one morphometric feature and usually use only one image processing method. Throughout this dissertation biomarkers and image processing strategies are combined to provide innovative and useful morphometric tools for examining brain changes during neurodevelopment. Specifically, a shape analysis technique allowing for a fine-grained assessment of regional thalamic volume in early-onset psychosis patients and healthy comparison subjects is implemented. Results show that disease-related reductions in global thalamic volume, as previously described by other authors, could be particularly driven by a deficit in the anterior-mediodorsal and pulvinar thalamic regions in patients relative to healthy subjects. Furthermore, in healthy adolescents different cortical features are extracted and combined and their interdependency is assessed over time. This study attempts to extend current knowledge of normal brain development, specifically the largely unexplored relationship between changes of distinct cortical morphological measurements during adolescence. This study demonstrates that cortical flattening, present during adolescence, is produced by a combination of age-related increase in sulcal width and decrease in sulcal depth. Finally, this methodology is applied to a cross-sectional study, investigating the mechanisms underlying the decrease in cortical thickness and gyrification observed in psychotic patients with a disease onset during adolescence.

Estudio dinámico de cimentaciones en obras portuarias

Los diques de abrigo verticales son estructuras monolíticas que sirven para reflejar el oleaje creando, de este modo, una zona abrigada en el lado tierra. Son estructuras de contención de gravedad, es decir, su peso es el elemento resistente fundamental. Las solicitaciones sobre estas estructuras son de tipo dinámico (oleaje) y consisten, fundamentalmente, en un empuje frontal y una subpresión en la base que varían en el tiempo. Habitualmente, las acciones sobre los diques de abrigo se establecen mediante fórmulas empíricas, que se describen en la presente tesis si bien, para obras de especial importancia, suelen medirse en modelos reducidos de laboratorio. Cuando el cimiento en que han de apoyarse estas estructuras no presenta una resistencia al corte suficiente, el apoyo se realiza en banquetas que redistribuyen la carga y que están formadas por materiales granulares. En la práctica habitual para conocer la estabilidad de estas estructuras frente a un temporal, tras establecer las acciones de cálculo (empuje frontal y subpresión) se efectúa un cálculo pseudoestático en el que se consideran condiciones drenadas o no drenadas del cimiento en función de su permeabilidad. Se conoce que en los suelos saturados, bajo cargas cíclicas, tiende a producirse una elevación de las presiones intersticiales y una reducción de tensiones efectivas así como una degradación del módulo de deformación tangencial en función del número de ciclos de carga, pudiéndose producir el fenómeno conocido como licuefacción (arenas) o movilidad cíclica (suelos más finos). El objeto de la tesis es explorar la posibilidad, con la tecnología actual, de analizar la estabilidad de los diques de abrigo verticales en cuyo cimiento existen suelos blandos, proponiendo un procedimiento para evaluar la estabilidad dinámica en este tipo de obras. Para ello se han revisado los procedimientos actualmente utilizados para definir las acciones de cálculo, los principales modelos de comportamiento dinámicos de suelos saturados disponibles y los procedimientos de cálculo. Una vez investigado el estado del arte sobre este tema, se propone un procedimiento de cálculo en el que, utilizando el programa comercial FLAC, se establecen las acciones cíclicas sobre un dique de abrigo vertical tipo con distintas condiciones de apoyo, aplicando, para el cimiento, un modelo de comportamiento tipo hiperbólico con generación de presiones intersticiales cuyos parámetros pueden obtenerse de ensayos de campo y laboratorio. Por último, una vez descrito el procedimiento, se aplica a un caso real en el que se produjo un fallo en la cimentación que desembocó en el hundimiento de parte de un dique vertical situado en el puerto de Barcelona, presentándose los resultados obtenidos del análisis efectuado y comparándolos con los obtenidos utilizando los métodos de cálculo habituales. Vertical breakwaters are monolithic structures built to reflect sea waves, thereby providing a sheltered area on the land side. They are gravity retaining structures, that is, their own weight is their basic resisting mechanism. Loads acting on these structures are dynamic (waves) and consist essentially in a frontal thrust and an uplift pressure on the base, which both vary over time. Usually, actions in breakwater design are established by empirical formulas, which are described in this thesis. For works of particular importance, such forces are measured in small-scale laboratory tests. When there are no soils with enough shear strength under the planned vertical breakwaters, they usually rest on granular berms which redistribute the load. Nowadays, after establishing the acting forces on the breakwater (front push and uplift pressure), a pseudostatic calculation (with drained or undrained conditions depending on the foundation permeability) is normally done to analyze the stability of these structures against storm waves. It is known that pore pressures tend to rise in saturated soils under cyclic loading and, consequently, there is a reduction of effective stress. A degradation of the shear modulus also occurs depending on the number of load cycles. All of these effects can bring about the phenomenon known as liquefaction in sands or cyclic mobility in fine-grained soils. The aim of the thesis is to explore the possibility that current technology provides to analyze the stability of vertical breakwaters founded on soft soils, and to suggest a method to evaluate the dynamic stability in this type of works. To this end, a review has been made of procedures currently used to define the actions in calculations, the main models of dynamic behaviour of saturated soils available and of calculation procedures. Once the state of the art on this subject has been reviewed, a method of calculation is proposed that uses the commercial program FLAC and is applied to a typical vertical breakwater on a range of different foundation conditions. For the foundation soil, a hyperbolic constitutive model with pore pressure generation has been employed, whose parameters can be obtained from field and laboratory tests. Finally, the described procedure is applied to an actual case where a foundation failure occurred that led to the sinking of several caissons in a vertical breakwater located in the port of Barcelona. The results obtained with the proposed method are compared with those obtained using conventional methods.