Improving probabilistic flood forecasting through a data assimilation scheme based on genetic programming

Opportunities offered by high performance computing provide a significant degree of promise in the enhancement of the performance of real-time flood forecasting systems. In this paper, a real-time framework for probabilistic flood forecasting through data assimilation is presented. The distributed rainfall-runoff real-time interactive basin simulator (RIBS) model is selected to simulate the hydrological process in the basin. Although the RIBS model is deterministic, it is run in a probabilistic way through the results of calibration developed in a previous work performed by the authors that identifies the probability distribution functions that best characterise the most relevant model parameters. Adaptive techniques improve the result of flood forecasts because the model can be adapted to observations in real time as new information is available. The new adaptive forecast model based on genetic programming as a data assimilation technique is compared with the previously developed flood forecast model based on the calibration results. Both models are probabilistic as they generate an ensemble of hydrographs, taking the different uncertainties inherent in any forecast process into account. The Manzanares River basin was selected as a case study, with the process being computationally intensive as it requires simulation of many replicas of the ensemble in real time.

Desarrollo de un Laboratorio Virtual para la realización de e-comparisons en los ensayos de aislamiento acústico de fachadas según UNE-EN ISO 140-5

Actualmente son una práctica común los procesos de normalización de métodos de ensayo y acreditación de laboratorios, ya que permiten una evaluación de los procedimientos llevados a cabo por profesionales de un sector tecnológico y además permiten asegurar unos mínimos de calidad en los resultados finales. En el caso de los laboratorios de acústica, para conseguir y mantener la acreditación de un laboratorio es necesario participar activamente en ejercicios de intercomparación, utilizados para asegurar la calidad de los métodos empleados. El inconveniente de estos ensayos es el gran coste que suponen para los laboratorios, siendo en ocasiones inasumible por estos teniendo que renunciar a la acreditación. Este Proyecto Fin de Grado se centrará en el desarrollo de un Laboratorio Virtual implementado mediante una herramienta software que servirá para realizar ejercicios de intercomparación no presenciales, ampliando de ese modo el concepto e-comparison y abriendo las bases a que en un futuro este tipo de ejercicios no presenciales puedan llegar a sustituir a los llevados a cabo actualmente. En el informe primero se hará una pequeña introducción, donde se expondrá la evolución y la importancia de los procedimientos de calidad acústica en la sociedad actual. A continuación se comentará las normativas internacionales en las que se soportará el proyecto, la norma ISO 145-5, así como los métodos matemáticos utilizados en su implementación, los métodos estadísticos de propagación de incertidumbres especificados por la JCGM (Joint Committee for Guides in Metrology). Después, se hablará sobre la estructura del proyecto, tanto del tipo de programación utilizada en su desarrollo como la metodología de cálculo utilizada para conseguir que todas las funcionalidades requeridas en este tipo de ensayo estén correctamente implementadas. Posteriormente se llevará a cabo una validación estadística basada en la comparación de unos datos generados por el programa, procesados utilizando la simulación de Montecarlo, y unos cálculos analíticos, que permita comprobar que el programa funciona tal y como se ha previsto en la fase de estudio teórico. También se realizará una prueba del programa, similar a la que efectuaría un técnico de laboratorio, en la que se evaluará la incertidumbre de la medida calculándola mediante el método tradicional, pudiendo comparar los datos obtenidos con los que deberían obtenerse. Por último, se comentarán las conclusiones obtenidas con el desarrollo y pruebas del Laboratorio Virtual, y se propondrán nuevas líneas de investigación futuras relacionadas con el concepto e-comparison y la implementación de mejoras al Laboratorio Virtual. ABSTRACT. Nowadays it is common practise to make procedures to normalise trials methods standards and laboratory accreditations, as they allow for the evaluation of the procedures made by professionals from a particular technological sector in addition to ensuring a minimum quality in the results. In order for an acoustics laboratory to achieve and maintain the accreditation it is necessary to actively participate in the intercomparison exercises, since these are used to assure the quality of the methods used by the technicians. Unfortunately, the high cost of these trials is unaffordable for many laboratories, which then have to renounce to having the accreditation. This Final Project is focused on the development of a Virtual Laboratory implemented by a software tool that it will be used for making non-attendance intercomparison trials, widening the concept of e-comparison and opening the possibility for using this type of non-attendance trials instead of the current ones. First, as a short introduction, I show the evolution and the importance today of acoustic quality procedures. Second, I will discuss the international standards, such as ISO 145-5, as well the mathematic and statistical methods of uncertainty propagation specified by the Joint Committee for Guides in Metrology, that are used in the Project. Third, I speak about the structure of the Project, as well as the programming language structure and the methodology used to get the different features needed in this acoustic trial. Later, a statistical validation will be carried out, based on comparison of data generated by the program, processed using a Montecarlo simulation, and analytical calculations to verify that the program works as planned in the theoretical study. There will also be a test of the program, similar to one that a laboratory technician would carry out, by which the uncertainty in the measurement will be compared to a traditional calculation method so as to compare the results. Finally, the conclusions obtained with the development and testing of the Virtual Laboratory will be discussed, new research paths related to e-comparison definition and the improvements for the Laboratory will be proposed.

Ship manoeuvrability: full scale trials of colombian navy riverine support patrol vessel

Methodology and results of full scale maneuvering trials for Riverine Support Patrol Vessel “RSPV”, built by COTECMAR for the Colombian Navy are presented. !is ship is equipped with a “Pump – Jet” propulsion system and the hull corresponds to a wide-hull with a high Beam – Draft ratio (B/T=9.5). Tests were based on the results of simulation of turning diameters obtained from TRIBON M3© design software, applying techniques of Design of Experiments “DOE”, to rationalize the number of runs in di"erent conditions of water depth, ship speed, and rudder angle. Results validate the excellent performance of this class of ship and show that turning diameter and other maneuvering characteristics improve with decreasing water depth.

ACGT: advancing clinico-genomic trials on cancer - four years of experience.

The challenges regarding seamless integration of distributed, heterogeneous and multilevel data arising in the context of contemporary, post-genomic clinical trials cannot be effectively addressed with current methodologies. An urgent need exists to access data in a uniform manner, to share information among different clinical and research centers, and to store data in secure repositories assuring the privacy of patients. Advancing Clinico-Genomic Trials (ACGT) was a European Commission funded Integrated Project that aimed at providing tools and methods to enhance the efficiency of clinical trials in the -omics era. The project, now completed after four years of work, involved the development of both a set of methodological approaches as well as tools and services and its testing in the context of real-world clinico-genomic scenarios. This paper describes the main experiences using the ACGT platform and its tools within one such scenario and highlights the very promising results obtained.

Identifying the semantics of eligibility criteria of clinical trials based on relevant medical ontologies

An important objective of the INTEGRATE project1 is to build tools that support the efficient execution of post-genomic multi-centric clinical trials in breast cancer, which includes the automatic assessment of the eligibility of patients for available trials. The population suited to be enrolled in a trial is described by a set of free-text eligibility criteria that are both syntactically and semantically complex. At the same time, the assessment of the eligibility of a patient for a trial requires the (machineprocessable) understanding of the semantics of the eligibility criteria in order to further evaluate if the patient data available for example in the hospital EHR satisfies these criteria. This paper presents an analysis of the semantics of the clinical trial eligibility criteria based on relevant medical ontologies in the clinical research domain: SNOMED-CT, LOINC, MedDRA. We detect subsets of these widely-adopted ontologies that characterize the semantics of the eligibility criteria of trials in various clinical domains and compare these sets. Next, we evaluate the occurrence frequency of the concepts in the concrete case of breast cancer (which is our first application domain) in order to provide meaningful priorities for the task of binding/mapping these ontology concepts to the actual patient data. We further assess the effort required to extend our approach to new domains in terms of additional semantic mappings that need to be developed.