Development of a 3-Dimensional Mathematical Collision Risk Model Based on Recorded Aircraft Trajectories to Estimate the Safety Level in High Density En-Route Airspaces

Como en todos los medios de transporte, la seguridad en los viajes en avión es de primordial importancia. Con los aumentos de tráfico aéreo previstos en Europa para la próxima década, es evidente que el riesgo de accidentes necesita ser evaluado y monitorizado cuidadosamente de forma continúa. La Tesis presente tiene como objetivo el desarrollo de un modelo de riesgo de colisión exhaustivo como método para evaluar el nivel de seguridad en ruta del espacio aéreo europeo, considerando todos los factores de influencia. La mayor limitación en el desarrollo de metodologías y herramientas de monitorización adecuadas para evaluar el nivel de seguridad en espacios de ruta europeos, donde los controladores aéreos monitorizan el tráfico aéreo mediante la vigilancia radar y proporcionan instrucciones tácticas a las aeronaves, reside en la estimación del riesgo operacional. Hoy en día, la estimación del riesgo operacional está basada normalmente en reportes de incidentes proporcionados por el proveedor de servicios de navegación aérea (ANSP). Esta Tesis propone un nuevo e innovador enfoque para evaluar el nivel de seguridad basado exclusivamente en el procesamiento y análisis trazas radar. La metodología propuesta ha sido diseñada para complementar la información recogida en las bases de datos de accidentes e incidentes, mediante la provisión de información robusta de los factores de tráfico aéreo y métricas de seguridad inferidas del análisis automático en profundidad de todos los eventos de proximidad. La metodología 3-D CRM se ha implementado en un prototipo desarrollado en MATLAB © para analizar automáticamente las trazas radar y planes de vuelo registrados por los Sistemas de Procesamiento de Datos Radar (RDP) e identificar y analizar todos los eventos de proximidad (conflictos, conflictos potenciales y colisiones potenciales) en un periodo de tiempo y volumen del espacio aéreo. Actualmente, el prototipo 3-D CRM está siendo adaptado e integrado en la herramienta de monitorización de prestaciones de Aena (PERSEO) para complementar las bases de accidentes e incidentes ATM y mejorar la monitorización y proporcionar evidencias de los niveles de seguridad. ABSTRACT As with all forms of transport, the safety of air travel is of paramount importance. With the projected increases in European air traffic in the next decade and beyond, it is clear that the risk of accidents needs to be assessed and carefully monitored on a continuing basis. The present thesis is aimed at the development of a comprehensive collision risk model as a method of assessing the European en-route risk, due to all causes and across all dimensions within the airspace. The major constraint in developing appropriate monitoring methodologies and tools to assess the level of safety in en-route airspaces where controllers monitor air traffic by means of radar surveillance and provide aircraft with tactical instructions lies in the estimation of the operational risk. The operational risk estimate normally relies on incident reports provided by the air navigation service providers (ANSPs). This thesis proposes a new and innovative approach to assessing aircraft safety level based exclusively upon the process and analysis of radar tracks. The proposed methodology has been designed to complement the information collected in the accident and incident databases, thereby providing robust information on air traffic factors and safety metrics inferred from the in depth assessment of proximate events. The 3-D CRM methodology is implemented in a prototype tool in MATLAB © in order to automatically analyze recorded aircraft tracks and flight plan data from the Radar Data Processing systems (RDP) and identify and analyze all proximate events (conflicts, potential conflicts and potential collisions) within a time span and a given volume of airspace. Currently, the 3D-CRM prototype is been adapted and integrated in AENA’S Performance Monitoring Tool (PERSEO) to complement the information provided by the ATM accident and incident databases and to enhance monitoring and providing evidence of levels of safety.

3-dimensional binaural sound rendering using acoustic measurements stored in the SOFA format

Several groups all over the world are researching in several ways to render 3D sounds. One way to achieve this is to use Head Related Transfer Functions (HRTFs). These measurements contain the Frequency Response of the human head and torso for each angle. Some years ago, was only possible to measure these Frequency Responses only in the horizontal plane. Nowadays, several improvements have made possible to measure and use 3D data for this purpose. The problem was that the groups didn't have a standard format file to store the data. That was a problem when a third part wanted to use some different HRTFs for 3D audio rendering. Every of them have different ways to store the data. The Spatially Oriented Format for Acoustics or SOFA was created to provide a solution to this problem. It is a format definition to unify all the previous different ways of storing any kind of acoustics data. At the moment of this project they have defined some basis for the format and some recommendations to store HRTFs. It is actually under development, so several changes could come. The SOFA[1] file format uses a numeric container called netCDF[2], specifically the Enhaced data model described in netCDF 4 that is based on HDF5[3]. The SoundScape Renderer (SSR) is a tool for real-time spatial audio reproduction providing a variety of rendering algorithms. The SSR was developed at the Quality and Usability Lab at TU Berlin and is now further developed at the Institut für Nachrichtentechnik at Universität Rostock [4]. This project is intended to be an introduction to the use of SOFA files, providing a C++ API to manipulate them and adapt the binaural renderer of the SSR for working with the SOFA format. RESUMEN. El SSR (SoundScape Renderer) es un programa que está siendo desarrollado actualmente por la Universität Rostock, y previamente por la Technische Universität Berlin. El SSR es una herramienta diseñada para la reproducción y renderización de audio 2D en tiempo real. Para ello utiliza diversos algoritmos, algunos orientados a sistemas formados por arrays de altavoces en diferentes configuraciones y otros algoritmos diseñados para cascos. El principal objetivo de este proyecto es dotar al SSR de la capacidad de renderizar sonidos binaurales en 3D. Este proyecto está centrado en el binaural renderer del SSR. Este algoritmo se basa en el uso de HRTFs (Head Related Transfer Function). Las HRTFs representan la función de transferencia del sistema formado por la cabeza y el torso del oyente. Esta función es medida desde diferentes ángulos. Con estos datos el binaural renderer puede generar audio en tiempo real simulando la posición de diferentes fuentes. Para poder incluir una base de datos con HRTFs en 3D se ha hecho uso del nuevo formato SOFA (Spatially Oriented Format for Acoustics). Este nuevo formato se encuentra en una fase bastante temprana de su desarrollo. Está pensado para servir como formato estándar para almacenar HRTFs y cualquier otro tipo de medidas acústicas, ya que actualmente cada laboratorio cuenta con su propio formato de almacenamiento y esto hace bastante difícil usar varias bases de datos diferentes en un mismo proyecto. El formato SOFA hace uso del contenedor numérico netCDF, que a su vez esta basado en un contenedor más básico llamado HRTF-5. Para poder incluir el formato SOFA en el binaural renderer del SSR se ha desarrollado una API en C++ para poder crear y leer archivos SOFA con el fin de utilizar los datos contenidos en ellos dentro del SSR.

Three-dimensional spatial distribution of synapses in the neocortex: A dual-beam electron microscopy study

In the cerebral cortex, most synapses are found in the neuropil, but relatively little is known about their 3-dimensional organization. Using an automated dual-beam electron microscope that combines focused ion beam milling and scanning electron microscopy, we have been able to obtain 10 three-dimensional samples with an average volume of 180 µm(3) from the neuropil of layer III of the young rat somatosensory cortex (hindlimb representation). We have used specific software tools to fully reconstruct 1695 synaptic junctions present in these samples and to accurately quantify the number of synapses per unit volume. These tools also allowed us to determine synapse position and to analyze their spatial distribution using spatial statistical methods. Our results indicate that the distribution of synaptic junctions in the neuropil is nearly random, only constrained by the fact that synapses cannot overlap in space. A theoretical model based on random sequential absorption, which closely reproduces the actual distribution of synapses, is also presented.

Optimal Impulsive Collision Avoidance

The problem of optimal impulsive collision avoidance between two colliding objects in 3-dimensional elliptical Keplerian orbits is investigated with the purpose of establishing the optimal impulse direction and orbit location that give rise to the maximum miss distance following the maneuver. Closed-form analytical expressions are provided that predicts such distance and can be employed to perform a full optimization analysis. After verifying the accuracy of the expression for any orbital eccentricity and encounter geometry the optimum maneuver direction is derived as a function of the arc length separation between the maneuver point and the predicted collision point. The provided formulas can be used for high accuracy instantaneous estimation of the outcome of a generic impulsive collision avoidance maneuver and its optimization

Mixing Snapshots and Fast Time Integration of PDEs

A local proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) plus Galerkin projection method was recently developed to accelerate time dependent numerical solvers of PDEs. This method is based on the combined use of a numerical code (NC) and a Galerkin sys- tem (GS) in a sequence of interspersed time intervals, INC and IGS, respectively. POD is performed on some sets of snapshots calculated by the numerical solver in the INC inter- vals. The governing equations are Galerkin projected onto the most energetic POD modes and the resulting GS is time integrated in the next IGS interval. The major computa- tional e®ort is associated with the snapshots calculation in the ¯rst INC interval, where the POD manifold needs to be completely constructed (it is only updated in subsequent INC intervals, which can thus be quite small). As the POD manifold depends only weakly on the particular values of the parameters of the problem, a suitable library can be con- structed adapting the snapshots calculated in other runs to drastically reduce the size of the ¯rst INC interval and thus the involved computational cost. The strategy is success- fully tested in (i) the one-dimensional complex Ginzburg-Landau equation, including the case in which it exhibits transient chaos, and (ii) the two-dimensional unsteady lid-driven cavity problem

Coupling time-stepping numerical methods and standard aerodynamics codes for instability analysis of flows in complex geometries

The development of a global instability analysis code coupling a time-stepping approach, as applied to the solution of BiGlobal and TriGlobal instability analysis 1, 2 and finite-volume-based spatial discretization, as used in standard aerodynamics codes is presented. The key advantage of the time-stepping method over matrix-formulation approaches is that the former provides a solution to the computer-storage issues associated with the latter methodology. To-date both approaches are successfully in use to analyze instability in complex geometries, although their relative advantages have never been quantified. The ultimate goal of the present work is to address this issue in the context of spatial discretization schemes typically used in industry. The time-stepping approach of Chiba 3 has been implemented in conjunction with two direct numerical simulation algorithms, one based on the typically-used in this context high-order method and another based on low-order methods representative of those in common use in industry. The two codes have been validated with solutions of the BiGlobal EVP and it has been showed that small errors in the base flow do not have affect significantly the results. As a result, a three-dimensional compressible unsteady second-order code for global linear stability has been successfully developed based on finite-volume spatial discretization and time-stepping method with the ability to study complex geometries by means of unstructured and hybrid meshes

First passages in bounded domains: When is the mean first passage time meaningful?

We study the first passage statistics to adsorbing boundaries of a Brownian motion in bounded two-dimensional domains of different shapes and configurations of the adsorbing and reflecting boundaries. From extensive numerical analysis we obtain the probability P(ω) distribution of the random variable ω=τ1/(τ1+τ2), which is a measure for how similar the first passage times τ1 and τ2 are of two independent realizations of a Brownian walk starting at the same location. We construct a chart for each domain, determining whether P(ω) represents a unimodal, bell-shaped form, or a bimodal, M-shaped behavior. While in the former case the mean first passage time (MFPT) is a valid characteristic of the first passage behavior, in the latter case it is an insufficient measure for the process. Strikingly we find a distinct turnover between the two modes of P(ω), characteristic for the domain shape and the respective location of absorbing and reflective boundaries. Our results demonstrate that large fluctuations of the first passage times may occur frequently in two-dimensional domains, rendering quite vague the general use of the MFPT as a robust measure of the actual behavior even in bounded domains, in which all moments of the first passage distribution exist.

Wavelet-based image fusion in multi-view three-dimensional microscopy

Multi-view microscopy techniques such as Light-Sheet Fluorescence Microscopy (LSFM) are powerful tools for 3D + time studies of live embryos in developmental biology. The sample is imaged from several points of view, acquiring a set of 3D views that are then combined or fused in order to overcome their individual limitations. Views fusion is still an open problem despite recent contributions in the field. We developed a wavelet-based multi-view fusion method that, due to wavelet decomposition properties, is able to combine the complementary directional information from all available views into a single volume. Our method is demonstrated on LSFM acquisitions from live sea urchin and zebrafish embryos. The fusion results show improved overall contrast and details when compared with any of the acquired volumes. The proposed method does not need knowledge of the system's point spread function (PSF) and performs better than other existing PSF independent fusion methods.

Comparison of dynamic effects of high-speed traffic load on ballasted track using a simplified two-dimensional and full three-dimensional model.

The vertical dynamic actions transmitted by railway vehicles to the ballasted track infrastructure is evaluated taking into account models with different degree of detail. In particular, we have studied this matter from a two-dimensional (2D) finite element model to a fully coupled three-dimensional (3D) multi-body finite element model. The vehicle and track are coupled via a non-linear Hertz contact mechanism. The method of Lagrange multipliers is used for the contact constraint enforcement between wheel and rail. Distributed elevation irregularities are generated based on power spectral density (PSD) distributions which are taken into account for the interaction. The numerical simulations are performed in the time domain, using a direct integration method for solving the transient problem due to the contact nonlinearities. The results obtained include contact forces, forces transmitted to the infrastructure (sleeper) by railpads and envelopes of relevant results for several track irregularities and speed ranges. The main contribution of this work is to identify and discuss coincidences and differences between discrete 2D models and continuum 3D models, as wheel as assessing the validity of evaluating the dynamic loading on the track with simplified 2D models

The scaled-time test as an alternative to the pseudo-dynamic test

The stepped and excessively slow execution of pseudo-dynamic tests has been found to be the source of some errors arising from strain-rate effect and stress relaxation. In order to control those errors, a new continuous test method which allows the selection of a more suitable time scale factor in the response is proposed in this work. By dimensional analysis, such scaled-time response is obtained theoretically by augmenting the inertial and damping properties of the structure, for which we propose the use of hydraulic pistons which are servo-controlled to produce active mass and damping, nevertheless using an equipment which is similar to that required in a pseudo-dynamic test. The results of the successful implementation of this technique for a simple specimen are shown here.

A three-dimensional self-adaptive hp finite element method for the characterization of waveguide discontinuities

We propose the use of a highly-accurate three-dimensional (3D) fully automatic hp-adaptive finite element method (FEM) for the characterization of rectangular waveguide discontinuities. These discontinuities are either the unavoidable result of mechanical/electrical transitions or deliberately introduced in order to perform certain electrical functions in modern communication systems. The proposed numerical method combines the geometrical flexibility of finite elements with an accuracy that is often superior to that provided by semi-analytical methods. It supports anisotropic refinements on irregular meshes with hanging nodes, and isoparametric elements. It makes use of hexahedral elements compatible with high-order H(curl)H(curl) discretizations. The 3D hp-adaptive FEM is applied for the first time to solve a wide range of 3D waveguide discontinuity problems of microwave communication systems in which exponential convergence of the error is observed.

Implementation of the disruption predictor APODIS in JET Real Time Network using the MARTe framework

Disruptions in tokamaks devices are unavoidable, and they can have a significant impact on machine integrity. So it is very important have mechanisms to predict this phenomenon. Disruption prediction is a very complex task, not only because it is a multi-dimensional problem, but also because in order to be effective, it has to detect well in advance the actual disruptive event, in order to be able to use successful mitigation strategies. With these constraints in mind a real-time disruption predictor has been developed to be used in JET tokamak. The predictor has been designed to run in the Multithreaded Application Real-Time executor (MARTe) framework. The predictor ?Advanced Predictor Of DISruptions? (APODIS) is based on Support Vector Machine (SVM).

Fully 3-wave model to study the hard transition to chaotic dynamics in alfven wave-fronts

The derivative nonlinear Schrödinger (DNLS) equation, describing propagation of circularly polarized Alfven waves of finite amplitude in a cold plasma, is truncated to explore the coherent, weakly nonlinear coupling of three waves near resonance, one wave being linearly unstable and the other waves damped. No matter how small the growth rate of the unstable wave, the four-dimensional flow for the three wave amplitudes and a relative phase, with both resistive damping and linear Landau damping, exhibits chaotic relaxation oscillations that are absent for zero growth-rate. This hard transition in phase-space behavior occurs for left-hand (LH) polarized waves, paralleling the known fact that only LH time-harmonic solutions of the DNLS equation are modulationally unstable. The parameter domain developing chaos is much broader than the corresponding domain in a reduced 3-wave model that assumes equal dampings of the daughter waves

Matrix-free time-stepping methods for the solution of TriGlobal instability problems

La inmensa mayoría de los flujos de relevancia ingenieril permanecen sin estudiar en el marco de la teoría de estabilidad global. Esto es debido a dos razones fundamentalmente, las dificultades asociadas con el análisis de los flujos turbulentos y los inmensos recursos computacionales requeridos para obtener la solución del problema de autovalores asociado al análisis de inestabilidad de flujos tridimensionales, también conocido como problema TriGlobal. En esta tesis se aborda el problema asociado con la tridimensionalidad. Se ha desarrollado una metodología general para obtener soluciones de problemas de análisis modal de las inestabilidades lineales globales mediante el acoplamiento de métodos de evolución temporal, desarrollados en este trabajo, con códigos de mecánica de fluidos computacional de segundo orden, utilizados de forma general en la industria. Esta metodología consiste en la resolución del problema de autovalores asociado al análisis de inestabilidad mediante métodos de proyección en subespacios de Krylov, con la particularidad de que dichos subespacios son generados por medio de la integración temporal de un vector inicial usando cualquier código de mecánica de fluidos computacional. Se han elegido tres problemas desafiantes en función de la exigencia de recursos computacionales necesarios y de la complejidad física para la demostración de la presente metodología: (i) el flujo en el interior de una cavidad tridimensional impulsada por una de sus tapas, (ii) el flujo alrededor de un cilindro equipado con aletas helicoidales a lo largo su envergadura y (iii) el flujo a través de una cavidad abierta tridimensinal en ausencia de homogeneidades espaciales. Para la validación de la tecnología se ha obtenido la solución del problema TriGlobal asociado al flujo en la cavidad tridimensional, utilizando el método de evolución temporal desarrollado acoplado con los operadores numéricos de flujo incompresible del código CFD OpenFOAM (código libre). Los resultados obtenidos coinciden plentamente con la literatura. La aplicación de esta metodología al estudio de inestabilidades globales de flujos abiertos tridimensionales ha proporcionado por primera vez, información sobre la transición tridimensional de estos flujos. Además, la metodología ha sido adaptada para resolver problemas adjuntos TriGlobales, permitiendo el control de flujo basado en modificaciones de las inestabilidades globales. Finalmente, se ha demostrado que la cantidad moderada de los recursos computacionales requeridos para la solución del problema de valor propio TriGlobal usando este método numérico, junto a su versatilidad al poder acoplarse a cualquier código aerodinámico, permite la realización de análisis de inestabilidad global y control de flujos complejos de relevancia industrial. Abstract Most flows of engineering relevance still remain unexplored in a global instability theory context for two reasons. First, because of the difficulties associated with the analysis of turbulent flows and, second, for the formidable computational resources required for the solution of the eigenvalue problem associated with the instability analysis of three-dimensional base flows, also known as TriGlobal problem. In this thesis, the problem associated with the three-dimensionality is addressed by means of the development of a general approach to the solution of large-scale global linear instability analysis by coupling a time-stepping approach with second order aerodynamic codes employed in industry. Three challenging flows in the terms of required computational resources and physical complexity have been chosen for demonstration of the present methodology; (i) the flow inside a wall-bounded three-dimensional lid-driven cavity, (ii) the flow past a cylinder fitted with helical strakes and (iii) the flow over a inhomogeneous three-dimensional open cavity. Results in excellent agreement with the literature have been obtained for the three-dimensional lid-driven cavity by using this methodology coupled with the incompressible solver of the open-source toolbox OpenFOAM®, which has served as validation. Moreover, significant physical insight of the instability of three-dimensional open flows has been gained through the application of the present time-stepping methodology to the other two cases. In addition, modifications to the present approach have been proposed in order to perform adjoint instability analysis of three-dimensional base flows and flow control; validation and TriGlobal examples are presented. Finally, it has been demonstrated that the moderate amount of computational resources required for the solution of the TriGlobal eigenvalue problem using this method enables the performance of instability analysis and control of flows of industrial relevance.

A method for revealing phase space structures of general time dependent dynamical systems

In this paper we develop new techniques for revealing geometrical structures in phase space that are valid for aperiodically time dependent dynamical systems, which we refer to as Lagrangian descriptors. These quantities are based on the integration, for a finite time, along trajectories of an intrinsic bounded, positive geometrical and/or physical property of the trajectory itself. We discuss a general methodology for constructing Lagrangian descriptors, and we discuss a “heuristic argument” that explains why this method is successful for revealing geometrical structures in the phase space of a dynamical system. We support this argument by explicit calculations on a benchmark problem having a hyperbolic fixed point with stable and unstable manifolds that are known analytically. Several other benchmark examples are considered that allow us the assess the performance of Lagrangian descriptors in revealing invariant tori and regions of shear. Throughout the paper “side-by-side” comparisons of the performance of Lagrangian descriptors with both finite time Lyapunov exponents (FTLEs) and finite time averages of certain components of the vector field (“time averages”) are carried out and discussed. In all cases Lagrangian descriptors are shown to be both more accurate and computationally efficient than these methods. We also perform computations for an explicitly three dimensional, aperiodically time-dependent vector field and an aperiodically time dependent vector field defined as a data set. Comparisons with FTLEs and time averages for these examples are also carried out, with similar conclusions as for the benchmark examples.