Real Options: A Tool for Managing Technical Risk in a Mine Plan

NPV is a static measure of project value which does not discriminate between levels of internal and external risk in project valuation. Due to current investment project?s characteristics, a much more complex model is needed: one that includes the value of flexibility and the different risk levels associated with variables subject to uncertainty (price, costs, exchange rates, grade and tonnage of the deposits, cut off grade, among many others). Few of these variables present any correlation or can be treated uniformly. In this context, Real Option Valuation (ROV) arose more than a decade ago, as a mainly theoretical model with the potential for simultaneous calculation of the risk associated with such variables. This paper reviews the literature regarding the application of Real Options Valuation in mining, noting the prior focus on external risks, and presents a case study where ROV is applied to quantify risk associated to mine planning.

The lead salt quantum dot intermediate band solar cell

We propose a new kind of quantum dot (QD) materials for the implementation of the intermediate band solar cell (IBSC) [1]. The materials are formed by lead salt QDs of the family IV-VI (PbTe, PbSe or PbS) embedded in a semiconductor of the family II-VI (Cd1-xMgxTe, CdxZn1-xTe, and CdS1-xSex or ZnSe1-xTex, respectively). These QDs are not nucleated due to lattice mismatch, as it is the case of the InAs/GaAs QD material system grown by the Stranski-Krastanov (S-K) mode. In these materials, the QDs precipitate due to the difference in lattice type: the QD lead salt material crystallizes in the rocksalt structure, while the II-VI host material has the zincblende structure [2]. Therefore, it is possible to use lattice-matched QD/host combinations, avoiding all the strain-related problems found in previous QD-IBSC developments. In this paper we discuss the properties of the lead salt QD materials and propose that they are appropriate to overcome the fundamental drawbacks of present III-V-based QD-IBSC prototypes. We also calculate the band diagram for some examples of IV-VI/II-VI QD materials. The detailed balance efficiency limit of QD-IBSCs based on the studied materials is found to be over 60% under maximum concentration.

An energy-efficient strategy for combined RSS-PDR indoor localization

We propose an optimization-based framework to minimize the energy consumption in a sensor network when using an indoor localization system based on the combination of received signal strength (RSS) and pedestrian dead reckoning (PDR). The objective is to find the RSS localization frequency and the number of RSS measurements used at each localization round that jointly minimize the total consumed energy, while ensuring at the same time a desired accuracy in the localization result. The optimization approach leverages practical models to predict the localization error and the overall energy consumption for combined RSS-PDR localization systems. The performance of the proposed strategy is assessed through simulation, showing energy savings with respect to other approaches while guaranteeing a target accuracy.

Modelling of quantum dot solar cells for concentrator PV applications

An equivalent circuit model is applied in order to describe the operation characteristics of quantum dot intermediate band solar cells (QD-IBSCs), which accounts for the recombination paths of the intermediate band (IB) through conduction band (CB), the valence band (VB) through IB, and the VB-CB transition. In this work, fitting of the measured dark J-V curves for QD-IBSCs (QD region being non-doped or direct Si-doped to n-type) and a reference GaAs p-i-n solar cell (no QDs) were carried out using this model in order to extract the diode parameters. The simulation was then performed using the extracted diode parameters to evaluate solar cell characteristics under concentration. In the case of QDSC with Si-doped (hence partially-filled) QDs, a fast recovery of the open-circuit voltage (Voc) was observed in a range of low concentration due to the IB effect. Further, at around 100X concentration, Si-doped QDSC could outperform the reference GaAs p-i-n solar cell if the current source of IB current source were sixteen times to about 10mA/cm2 compared to our present cell.

Si(100) versus Ge(100): Watching the interface formation for the growth of III-V-based solar cells on abundant substrates

We investigated the atomic surface properties of differently prepared silicon and germanium (100) surfaces during metal-organic vapour phase epitaxy/chemical vapour deposition (MOVPE/MOCVD), in particular the impact of the MOVPE ambient, and applied reflectance anisotropy/difference spectroscopy (RAS/RDS) in our MOVPE reactor to in-situ watch and control the preparation on the atomic length scale for subsequent III-V-nucleation. The technological interest in the predominant opto-electronic properties of III-V-compounds drives the research for their heteroepitaxial integration on more abundant and cheaper standard substrates such as Si(100) or Ge(100). In these cases, a general task must be accomplished successfully, i.e. the growth of polar materials on non-polar substrates and, beyond that, very specific variations such as the individual interface formation and the atomic step structure, have to be controlled. Above all, the method of choice to grow industrial relevant high-performance device structures is MOVPE, not normally compatible with surface and interface sensitive characterization tools, which are commonly based on ultrahigh vacuum (UHV) ambients. A dedicated sample transfer system from MOVPE environment to UHV enabled us to benchmark the optical in-situ spectra with results from various surfaces science instruments without considering disruptive contaminants. X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) provided direct observation of different terminations such as arsenic and phosphorous and verified oxide removal under various specific process parameters. Absorption lines in Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) spectra were used to identify specific stretch modes of coupled hydrides and the polarization dependence of the anti-symmetric stretch modes distinguished different dimer orientations. Scanning tunnelling microscopy (STM) studied the atomic arrangement of dimers and steps and tip-induced H-desorption proved the saturation of dangling bonds after preparati- n. In-situ RAS was employed to display details transiently such as the presence of H on the surface at lower temperatures (T <; 800°C) and the absence of Si-H bonds at elevated annealing temperature and also surface terminations. Ge buffer growth by the use of GeH4 enables the preparation of smooth surfaces and leads to a more pronounced amplitude of the features in the spectra which indicates improvements of the surface quality.

Roadmap towards efficiencies over 40% at ultra-high concentrations (> 1000 suns)

High efficiency solar cells working under ultra-high concentrations (>;1000X) have been shown to be a promising solution to decrease the cost of PV electricity, increase the efficiency and circumvent the material availability restrictions for massive PV penetration. A detailed analysis of the limitations of our current triple junction solar cell (36.2% at 700X), in the quest to maximize efficiency at 1000X, shows that the main improvements to tackle are: a) implementation of a high band gap tunnel junction; b) increase the band gap of the top cell; c) fine current matching tune; d) enhancement of the front contact process. This constitutes our roadmap to reach an efficiency over 41%

Optimizing Bottom Subcells for III-V-on-Si MultiJunction Solar Cells

Dual-junction solar cells formed by a GaAsP or GaInP top cell and a silicon bottom cell seem to be attractive candidates to materialize the long sought-for integration of III-V materials on silicon for photovoltaic applications. Such integration would offer a cost breakthrough for photovoltaic technology, unifying the low cost of silicon and the efficiency potential of III-V multijunction solar cells. In this study, we analyze several factors influencing the performance of the bottom subcell of this dual-junction, namely, 1) the formation of the emitter as a result of the phosphorus diffusion that takes place during the prenucleation temperature ramp and during the growth of the III-V layers; 2) the degradation in surface morphology during diffusion; and 3) the quality needed for the passivation provided by the GaP layer on the emitter.

A new approach for publishing workflows: abstractions, standards, and linked data

In recent years, a variety of systems have been developed that export the workflows used to analyze data and make them part of published articles. We argue that the workflows that are published in current approaches are dependent on the specific codes used for execution, the specific workflow system used, and the specific workflow catalogs where they are published. In this paper, we describe a new approach that addresses these shortcomings and makes workflows more reusable through: 1) the use of abstract workflows to complement executable workflows to make them reusable when the execution environment is different, 2) the publication of both abstract and executable workflows using standards such as the Open Provenance Model that can be imported by other workflow systems, 3) the publication of workflows as Linked Data that results in open web accessible workflow repositories. We illustrate this approach using a complex workflow that we re-created from an influential publication that describes the generation of 'drugomes'.

Desing of an Airport Surface Routing Evaluation Tool

There are many studies related with airport surface routing algorithms, based on different approaches and with different evaluation methods and metrics. So, the need of performing a balanced analysis and comparison using a common framework is evident. This paper presents an implementation of an evaluation tool for airport surface routing algorithms. The routing evaluation tool presented here is based in three basic pillars composed by the airport model, the model and generation of traffic and a comprehensive figure of merit function. The paper includes some example evaluations performed over Barajas Airport with representative traffic samples using several simple routing methods.

XPS as Characterization Tool for PV: From the Substrate to Complete III-V Multijunction Solar Cells

This contribution aims to illustrate the potential of the X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) technique as a tool to analyze different parts of a solar cell (surface state, heterointerfaces, profile composition of ohmic contacts, etc). Here, the analysis is specifically applied to III-V multijunction solar cells used in concentrator systems. The information provided from such XPS analysis has helped to understand the physico-chemical nature of these surfaces and interfaces, and thus has guided the technological process in order to improve the solar cell performance.

Statistical Calculation of the Main Reliability Functions of GaAs Concentrator III-V Solar Cells

This paper presents some of the results of a method to determine the main reliability functions of concentrator solar cells. High concentrator GaAs single junction solar cells have been tested in an Accelerated Life Test. The method can be directly applied to multi-junction solar cells. The main conclusions of this test carried out show that these solar cells are robust devices with a very low probability of failure caused by degradation during their operation life (more than 30 years). The evaluation of the probability operation function (i.e. the reliability function R(t)) is obtained for two nominal operation conditions of these cells, namely simulated concentration ratios of 700 and 1050 suns. Preliminary determination of the Mean Time to Failure indicates a value much higher than the intended operation life time of the concentrator cells.

Using combined static analysis and profiling for logic program execution time estimation

Predicting statically the running time of programs has many applications ranging from task scheduling in parallel execution to proving the ability of a program to meet strict time constraints. A starting point in order to attack this problem is to infer the computational complexity of such programs (or fragments thereof). This is one of the reasons why the development of static analysis techniques for inferring cost-related properties of programs (usually upper and/or lower bounds of actual costs) has received considerable attention.

Reduced certificates for abstraction-carrying code

Abstraction-Carrying Code (ACC) has recently been proposed as a framework for mobile code safety in which the code supplier provides a program together with an abstraction whose validity entails compliance with a predefined safety policy. The abstraction plays thus the role of safety certifícate and its generation is carried out automatically by a fixed-point analyzer. The advantage of providing a (fixedpoint) abstraction to the code consumer is that its validity is checked in a single pass of an abstract interpretation-based checker. A main challenge is to reduce the size of certificates as much as possible while at the same time not increasing checking time. We introduce the notion of reduced certifícate which characterizes the subset of the abstraction which a checker needs in order to validate (and re-construct) the full certifícate in a single pass. Based on this notion, we instrument a generic analysis algorithm with the necessary extensions in order to identify the information relevant to the checker. We also provide a correct checking algorithm together with sufficient conditions for ensuring its completeness. The experimental results within the CiaoPP system show that our proposal is able to greatly reduce the size of certificates in practice.

On the practicality of global flow analysis of logic programs

This paper addresses the issue of the practicality of global flow analysis in logic program compilation, in terms of both speed and precision of analysis. It discusses design and implementation aspects of two practical abstract interpretation-based flow analysis systems: MA3, the MOO Andparallel Analyzer and Annotator; and Ms, an experimental mode inference system developed for SB-Prolog. The paper also provides performance data obtained from these implementations. Based on these results, it is concluded that the overhead of global flow analysis is not prohibitive, while the results of analysis can be quite precise and useful.

Towards execution time estimation for logic programs via static analysis and profiling

Effective static analyses have been proposed which infer bounds on the number of resolutions or reductions. These have the advantage of being independent from the platform on which the programs are executed and have been shown to be useful in a number of applications, such as granularity control in parallel execution. On the other hand, in distributed computation scenarios where platforms with different capabilities come into play, it is necessary to express costs in metrics that include the characteristics of the platform. In particular, it is specially interesting to be able to infer upper and lower bounds on actual execution times. With this objective in mind, we propose an approach which combines compile-time analysis for cost bounds with a one-time profiling of the platform in order to determine the valúes of certain parameters for a given platform. These parameters calíbrate a cost model which, from then on, is able to compute statically time bound functions for procedures and to predict with a significant degree of accuracy the execution times of such procedures in the given platform. The approach has been implemented and integrated in the CiaoPP system.