Generación de modelos físicos personalizados y segmentación de la pared arterial y el trombo intraluminal en imágenes de aneurismas aórticos abdominales

Esta tesis doctoral está encuadrada dentro del marco general de la ingeniería biomédica aplicada al tratamiento de las enfermedades cardiovasculares, enfermedades que provocan alrededor de 1.9 millones (40%) de muertes al año en la Unión Europea. En este contexto surge el proyecto europeo SCATh-Smart Catheterization, cuyo objetivo principal es mejorar los procedimientos de cateterismo aórtico introduciendo nuevas tecnologías de planificación y navegación quirúrgica y minimizando el uso de fluoroscopía. En particular, esta tesis aborda el modelado y diagnóstico de aneurismas aórticos abdominales (AAA) y del trombo intraluminal (TIL), allí donde esté presente, así como la segmentación de estas estructuras en imágenes preoperatorias de RM. Los modelos físicos específicos del paciente, construidos a partir de imágenes médicas preoperatorias, tienen múltiples usos, que van desde la evaluación preoperatoria de estructuras anatómicas a la planificación quirúrgica para el guiado de catéteres. En el diagnóstico y tratamiento de AAA, los modelos físicos son útiles a la hora de evaluar diversas variables biomecánicas y fisiológicas de las estructuras vasculares. Existen múltiples técnicas que requieren de la generación de modelos físicos que representen la anatomía vascular. Una de las principales aplicaciones de los modelos físicos es el análisis de elementos finitos (FE). Las simulaciones de FE para AAA pueden ser específicas para el paciente y permiten modelar estados de estrés complejos, incluyendo los efectos provocados por el TIL. La aplicación de métodos numéricos de análisis tiene como requisito previo la generación de una malla computacional que representa la geometría de interés mediante un conjunto de elementos poliédricos, siendo los hexaédricos los que presentan mejores resultados. En las estructuras vasculares, generar mallas hexaédricas es un proceso especialmente exigente debido a la compleja anatomía 3D ramificada. La mayoría de los AAA se encuentran situados en la bifurcación de la arteria aorta en las arterias iliacas y es necesario modelar de manera fiel dicha bifurcación. En el caso de que la sangre se estanque en el aneurisma provocando un TIL, éste forma una estructura adyacente a la pared aórtica. De este modo, el contorno externo del TIL es el mismo que el contorno interno de la pared, por lo que las mallas resultantes deben reflejar esta particularidad, lo que se denomina como "mallas conformadas". El fin último de este trabajo es modelar las estructuras vasculares de modo que proporcionen nuevas herramientas para un mejor diagnóstico clínico, facilitando medidas de riesgo de rotura de la arteria, presión sistólica o diastólica, etc. Por tanto, el primer objetivo de esta tesis es diseñar un método novedoso y robusto para generar mallas hexaédricas tanto de la pared aórtica como del trombo. Para la identificación de estas estructuras se utilizan imágenes de resonancia magnética (RM). Deben mantenerse sus propiedades de adyacencia utilizando elementos de alta calidad, prestando especial atención al modelado de la bifurcación y a que sean adecuadas para el análisis de FE. El método tiene en cuenta la evolución de la línea central del vaso en el espacio tridimensional y genera la malla directamente a partir de las imágenes segmentadas, sin necesidad de reconstruir superficies triangulares. Con el fin de reducir la intervención del usuario en el proceso de generación de las mallas, es también objetivo de esta tesis desarrollar un método de segmentación semiautomática de las distintas estructuras de interés. Las principales contribuciones de esta tesis doctoral son: 1. El diseño, implementación y evaluación de un algoritmo de generación de mallas hexaédricas conformadas de la pared y el TIL a partir de los contornos segmentados en imágenes de RM. Se ha llevado a cabo una evaluación de calidad que determine su aplicabilidad a métodos de FE. Los resultados demuestran que el algoritmo desarrollado genera mallas conformadas de alta calidad incluso en la región de la bifurcación, que son adecuadas para su uso en métodos de análisis de FE. 2. El diseño, implementación y evaluación de un método de segmentación automático de las estructuras de interés. La luz arterial se segmenta de manera semiautomática utilizando un software disponible a partir de imágenes de RM con contraste. Los resultados de este proceso sirven de inicialización para la segmentación automática de las caras interna y externa de la pared aórtica utilizando métodos basado en modelos de textura y forma a partir de imágenes de RM sin contraste. Los resultados demuestran que el algoritmo desarrollado proporciona segmentaciones fieles de las distintas estructuras de interés. En conclusión, el trabajo realizado en esta tesis doctoral corrobora las hipótesis de investigación postuladas, y pretende servir como aportación para futuros avances en la generación de modelos físicos de geometrías biológicas. ABSTRACT The frame of this PhD Thesis is the biomedical engineering applied to the treatment of cardiovascular diseases, which cause around 1.9 million deaths per year in the European Union and suppose about 40% of deaths per year. In this context appears the European project SCATh-Smart Catheterization. The main objective of this project is creating a platform which improves the navigation of catheters in aortic catheterization minimizing the use of fluoroscopy. In the framework of this project, the specific field of this PhD Thesis is the diagnosis and modeling of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAAs) and the intraluminal thrombus (ILT) whenever it is present. Patient-specific physical models built from preoperative imaging are becoming increasingly important in the area of minimally invasive surgery. These models can be employed for different purposes, such as the preoperatory evaluation of anatomic structures or the surgical planning for catheter guidance. In the specific case of AAA diagnosis and treatment, physical models are especially useful for evaluating pressures over vascular structures. There are multiple techniques that require the generation of physical models which represent the target anatomy. Finite element (FE) analysis is one the principal applications for physical models. FE simulations for AAA may be patient-specific and allow modeling biomechanical and physiological variables including those produced by ILT, and also the segmentation of those anatomical structures in preoperative MR images. Applying numeric methods requires the generation of a proper computational mesh. These meshes represent the patient anatomy using a set of polyhedral elements, with hexahedral elements providing better results. In the specific case of vascular structures, generating hexahedral meshes is a challenging task due to the complex 3D branching anatomy. Each patient’s aneurysm is unique, characterized by its location and shape, and must be accurately represented for subsequent analyses to be meaningful. Most AAAs are located in the region where the aorta bifurcates into the iliac arteries and it is necessary to model this bifurcation precisely and reliably. If blood stagnates in the aneurysm and forms an ILT, it exists as a conforming structure with the aortic wall, i.e. the ILT’s outer contour is the same as the wall’s inner contour. Therefore, resulting meshes must also be conforming. The main objective of this PhD Thesis is designing a novel and robust method for generating conforming hexahedral meshes for the aortic wall and the thrombus. These meshes are built using largely high-quality elements, especially at the bifurcation, that are suitable for FE analysis of tissue stresses. The method accounts for the evolution of the vessel’s centerline which may develop outside a single plane, and generates the mesh directly from segmented images without the requirement to reconstruct triangular surfaces. In order to reduce the user intervention in the mesh generation process is also a goal of this PhD. Thesis to develop a semiautomatic segmentation method for the structures of interest. The segmentation is performed from magnetic resonance image (MRI) sequences that have tuned to provide high contrast for the arterial tissue against the surrounding soft tissue, so that we determine the required information reliably. The main contributions of this PhD Thesis are: 1. The design, implementation and evaluation of an algorithm for generating hexahedral conforming meshes of the arterial wall and the ILT from the segmented contours. A quality inspection has been applied to the meshes in order to determine their suitability for FE methods. Results show that the developed algorithm generates high quality conforming hexahedral meshes even at the bifurcation region. Thus, these meshes are suitable for FE analysis. 2. The design, implementation and evaluation of a semiautomatic segmentation method for the structures of interest. The lumen is segmented in a semiautomatic way from contrast filled MRI using an available software. The results obtained from this process are used to initialize the automatic segmentation of the internal and external faces of the aortic wall. These segmentations are performed by methods based on texture and shape models from MRI with no contrast. The results show that the algorithm provides faithful segmentations of the structures of interest requiring minimal user intervention. In conclusion, the work undertaken in this PhD. Thesis verifies the investigation hypotheses. It intends to serve as basis for future physical model generation of proper biological anatomies used by numerical methods.

Dynamic Studies of Shell and Spatial Structures

For the past 20 years, dynamic analysis of shells has been one of the most fascinating fields for research. Using the new light materials the building engineer soon discovered that the subsequent reduction of gravity forces produced not only the desired shape freedom but the appearance of ecologic loads as the first factor of design; loads which present strong random properties and marked dynamic influence. On the other hand, the technological advance in the aeronautical and astronautical field placed the engineers in front of shell structures of nonconventional shape and able to sustain substantialy dynamic loads. The response to the increasingly challenger problems of the last two decades has been very bright; new forms, new materials and new methods of analysis have arosen in the design of off-shore platforms, nuclear vessels, space crafts, etc. Thanks to the intensity of the lived years we have at our disposition a coherent and homogeneous amount of knowledge which enable us to face problems of inconceivable complexity when IASS was founded. The open minded approach to classical problems and the impact of the computer are, probably, important factors in the Renaissance we have enjoyed these years, and a good proof of this are the papers presented to the previous IASS meetings as well as that we are going to consider in this one. Particularly striking is the great number of papers based on a mathematical modeling in front of the meagerness of those treating laboratory experiments on physical models. The universal entering of the computer into almost every phase of our lifes, and the cost of physical models, are –may be- reasons for this lack of experimental methods. Nevertheless they continue offering useful results as are those obtained with the shaking-table in which the computer plays an essential role in the application of loads as well as in the instantaneous treatment of control data. Plates 1 and 2 record the papers presented under dynamic heading, 40% of them are from Japan in good correlation with the relevance that Japanese research has traditionally showed in this area. Also interesting is to find old friends as profesors Tanaka, Nishimura and Kostem who presented valuable papers in previous IASS conferences. As we see there are papers representative of all tendencies, even purely analytical! Better than discuss them in detail, which can be done after the authors presentation, I think we can comment in the general pattern of the dynamical approach are summarized in plate 3.

Numerical and experimental study of overtopping and failure of rockfill dams

This paper aims to present and validate a numerical technique for the simulation of the overtopping and onset of failure in rockfill dams due to mass sliding. This goal is achieved by coupling a fluid dynamic model for the simulation of the free surface and through-flow problems, with a numerical technique for the calculation of the rockfill response and deformation. Both the flow within the dam body and in its surroundings are taken into account. An extensive validation of the resulting computational method is performed by solving several failure problems on physical models of rockfill dams for which experimental results have been obtained by the authors.

Optimización del análisis best-estimate de un elemento combustible BWR con el código STAR-CCM+

The objective of the project is the evaluation of the code STAR-CCM +, as well as the establishment of guidelines and standardized procedures for the discretization of the area of study and the selection of physical models suitable for the simulation of BWR fuel. For this purpose several of BFBT experiments have simulated provide a data base for the development of experiments for measuring distribution of fractions of holes to changes in power in order to find the most appropriate models for the simulation of the problem.

Análisis comparativo y nuevas estimaciones de las tasas de rebase en obras marítimas en grandes profundidades

El rebase se define como el transporte de una cantidad importante de agua sobre la coronación de una estructura. Por tanto, es el fenómeno que, en general, determina la cota de coronación del dique dependiendo de la cantidad aceptable del mismo, a la vista de condicionantes funcionales y estructurales del dique. En general, la cantidad de rebase que puede tolerar un dique de abrigo desde el punto de vista de su integridad estructural es muy superior a la cantidad permisible desde el punto de vista de su funcionalidad. Por otro lado, el diseño de un dique con una probabilidad de rebase demasiado baja o nula conduciría a diseños incompatibles con consideraciones de otro tipo, como son las estéticas o las económicas. Existen distintas formas de estudiar el rebase producido por el oleaje sobre los espaldones de las obras marítimas. Las más habituales son los ensayos en modelo físico y las formulaciones empíricas o semi-empíricas. Las menos habituales son la instrumentación en prototipo, las redes neuronales y los modelos numéricos. Los ensayos en modelo físico son la herramienta más precisa y fiable para el estudio específico de cada caso, debido a la complejidad del proceso de rebase, con multitud de fenómenos físicos y parámetros involucrados. Los modelos físicos permiten conocer el comportamiento hidráulico y estructural del dique, identificando posibles fallos en el proyecto antes de su ejecución, evaluando diversas alternativas y todo esto con el consiguiente ahorro en costes de construcción mediante la aportación de mejoras al diseño inicial de la estructura. Sin embargo, presentan algunos inconvenientes derivados de los márgenes de error asociados a los ”efectos de escala y de modelo”. Las formulaciones empíricas o semi-empíricas presentan el inconveniente de que su uso está limitado por la aplicabilidad de las fórmulas, ya que éstas sólo son válidas para una casuística de condiciones ambientales y tipologías estructurales limitadas al rango de lo reproducido en los ensayos. El objetivo de la presente Tesis Doctoral es el contrate de las formulaciones desarrolladas por diferentes autores en materia de rebase en distintas tipologías de diques de abrigo. Para ello, se ha realizado en primer lugar la recopilación y el análisis de las formulaciones existentes para estimar la tasa de rebase sobre diques en talud y verticales. Posteriormente, se llevó a cabo el contraste de dichas formulaciones con los resultados obtenidos en una serie de ensayos realizados en el Centro de Estudios de Puertos y Costas. Para finalizar, se aplicó a los ensayos de diques en talud seleccionados la herramienta neuronal NN-OVERTOPPING2, desarrollada en el proyecto europeo de rebases CLASH (“Crest Level Assessment of Coastal Structures by Full Scale Monitoring, Neural Network Prediction and Hazard Analysis on Permissible Wave Overtopping”), contrastando de este modo la tasa de rebase obtenida en los ensayos con este otro método basado en la teoría de las redes neuronales. Posteriormente, se analizó la influencia del viento en el rebase. Para ello se han realizado una serie de ensayos en modelo físico a escala reducida, generando oleaje con y sin viento, sobre la sección vertical del Dique de Levante de Málaga. Finalmente, se presenta el análisis crítico del contraste de cada una de las formulaciones aplicadas a los ensayos seleccionados, que conduce a las conclusiones obtenidas en la presente Tesis Doctoral. Overtopping is defined as the volume of water surpassing the crest of a breakwater and reaching the sheltered area. This phenomenon determines the breakwater’s crest level, depending on the volume of water admissible at the rear because of the sheltered area’s functional and structural conditioning factors. The ways to assess overtopping processes range from those deemed to be most traditional, such as semi-empirical or empirical type equations and physical, reduced scale model tests, to others less usual such as the instrumentation of actual breakwaters (prototypes), artificial neural networks and numerical models. Determining overtopping in reduced scale physical model tests is simple but the values obtained are affected to a greater or lesser degree by the effects of a scale model-prototype such that it can only be considered as an approximation to what actually happens. Nevertheless, physical models are considered to be highly useful for estimating damage that may occur in the area sheltered by the breakwater. Therefore, although physical models present certain problems fundamentally deriving from scale effects, they are still the most accurate, reliable tool for the specific study of each case, especially when large sized models are adopted and wind is generated Empirical expressions obtained from laboratory tests have been developed for calculating the overtopping rate and, therefore, the formulas obtained obviously depend not only on environmental conditions – wave height, wave period and water level – but also on the model’s characteristics and are only applicable in a range of validity of the tests performed in each case. The purpose of this Thesis is to make a comparative analysis of methods for calculating overtopping rates developed by different authors for harbour breakwater overtopping. First, existing equations were compiled and analysed in order to estimate the overtopping rate on sloping and vertical breakwaters. These equations were then compared with the results obtained in a number of tests performed in the Centre for Port and Coastal Studies of the CEDEX. In addition, a neural network model developed in the European CLASH Project (“Crest Level Assessment of Coastal Structures by Full Scale Monitoring, Neural Network Prediction and Hazard Analysis on Permissible Wave Overtopping“) was also tested. Finally, the wind effects on overtopping are evaluated using tests performed with and without wind in the physical model of the Levante Breakwater (Málaga).

El color en la transfiguración del espacio: un estudio empírico de los dispositivos de transformación y configuración

La presente investigación analiza la capacidad del color de cualificar los espacios y propone una clasificación que ordene los diferentes dispositivos que actúan en este proceso. El objetivo de esta tesis es describir estos dispositivos estableciéndolos como parte inequívoca de cualquier proceso desencadenado por la presencia del binomio luz y color. El color ha sido objeto de estudio y experimentación a lo largo de la historia, en todas las artes y las distintas disciplinas relacionadas con la física, la percepción y la interacción. De este modo se realiza una aproximación teórica e histórica al color desde puntos de vista interdisciplinares, para llegar a comprender el modo en el que el color se acaba separando de la forma para pasar a formar parte de la configuración del espacio. Con el propósito de alcanzar este objetivo, se ha realizado un recorrido a través de diferentes teorías y manifestaciones artísticas realizadas en torno al color a lo largo de la Historia, para encontrar las claves de la relación del color con el espacio. Tomando de base este primer acercamiento al tema, se realiza un estudio empírico exhaustivo con modelos físicos con el fin de aislar los dispositivos que intervienen el este proceso en el que el color se pone en relación con el espacio; se analiza su variación a medida que fluctúan las características de los elementos que desencadenan los dispositivos. El objetivo es descubrir un orden, una taxonomía, que permita interpretar cualquier transformación producida por el color en el espacio. Posteriormente, se verifica la validez de esta clasificación estudiando siete espacios modelo en los que el color transfigura el espacio mediante la activación conjunta de varios de los dispositivos analizados. Se ha elegido este grupo de siete espacios debido a que, al tomarlos como suma, sus interiores engloban todos los fenómenos encontrados en el análisis previo. El conjunto de los dispositivos que actúan en cada espacio forma un sistema único e irrepetible que tiene que ver con su transfiguración espacial mediante la luz y el color. Estos sistemas constituyen parte de la génesis propia de cada espacio a través de una secuencia de dispositivos de transformación y configuración espacial que lo hace singular. Los dispositivos clasificados en esta investigación se encuentran en cualquier espacio en el que intervengan la luz y el color, agrupándose secuencialmente en sistemas determinados que cualifican el espacio arquitectónico. ABSTRACT This research analyzes the ability of the colour to qualify the spaces and proposes a classification to arrange the different devices that act in this process. The aim of this thesis is to describe these devices, unequivocally established as part of any process triggered by the presence of light and color pairing. Colour has been the subject of study and experimentation throughout history, in all the arts and disciplines related to physics, perception and interaction. Thus a theoretical and historical approach to the colour is developed from interdisciplinary points of view, in order to understand the way that colour separates from the form and is part of the space configuration. With the purpose of reaching this target, there has been a journey through the artistic movements and theories on colour throughout history, seeking for the key points of its relation with the space. Based on these first intuitions as a starting point, an exhaustive empirical study is made with physical models with the purpose of isolating the devices that participate in this process where colour is related with the space as well as analyzing their variation to the extent that the characteristics of the elements which cause them fluctuate. The objective is to discover an order, a taxonomy that allows to performing any transformation produced by the colour in the space. Afterwards, the validity of this classification is verified by studying seven model spaces in which the colour transfigures the space by the combined activation of several analyzed devices. These seven spaces were chosen due to all the phenomenon set in the previous analysis are included in their interior space. The group of devices that act on each space creates an unrepeatable and unique system that has to do with its spatial transfiguration by means of light and colour. These systems form part of the origin itself of each space through a sequence of devices of spatial transformation and configuration that make this space unique. The devices sorted in this research transform and configure any space in which light and colour participate, sequentially grouping together in determined systems that qualify the architectonic space.

Distributed models in P-Systems architectures to reduce computation time

Membrane systems are computational equivalent to Turing machines. However, their distributed and massively parallel nature obtains polynomial solutions opposite to traditional non-polynomial ones. At this point, it is very important to develop dedicated hardware and software implementations exploiting those two membrane systems features. Dealing with distributed implementations of P systems, the bottleneck communication problem has arisen. When the number of membranes grows up, the network gets congested. The purpose of distributed architectures is to reach a compromise between the massively parallel character of the system and the needed evolution step time to transit from one configuration of the system to the next one, solving the bottleneck communication problem. The goal of this paper is twofold. Firstly, to survey in a systematic and uniform way the main results regarding the way membranes can be placed on processors in order to get a software/hardware simulation of P-Systems in a distributed environment. Secondly, we improve some results about the membrane dissolution problem, prove that it is connected, and discuss the possibility of simulating this property in the distributed model. All this yields an improvement in the system parallelism implementation since it gets an increment of the parallelism of the external communication among processors. Proposed ideas improve previous architectures to tackle the communication bottleneck problem, such as reduction of the total time of an evolution step, increase of the number of membranes that could run on a processor and reduction of the number of processors.

Models for the prediction of handling damage in citrus and peaches grading lines, related to their physical properties.

Fruit damage during harvesting and handling is a standing problem, particularly for susceptible fruits like peaches and apricots. The resulting mechanical damage is a combination of fruit properties and damage inflicting effects due to procedures and to the equipment. Nine packing lines in the region of Murcia (SE Spain) have been tested with the aid of two different-size electronic fruits IS-100. Probabilities of impacts above three preset thresholds (50 g's, 100 g's and 150 g's) were calculated for each transfer point. Interaction fruit-packing line tests have been also performed in order to study the real incidence of packing lines on natural produce: apricots (1 variety), peaches (3 v.), lemons (1 v.) and oranges (3 v.). Bruises of handled and not handled samples of fruits were compared.

W-singularities in cosmological models

Recently a new type of cosmological singularity has been postulated for infinite barotropic index w in the equation of state p = wρ of the cosmological fluid, but vanishing pressure and density at the singular event. Apparently the barotropic index w would be the only physical quantity to blow up at the singularity. In this talk we would like to discuss the strength of such singularities and compare them with other types. We show that they are weak singularities

Refining predictions of iberian plant distribution: lessons from p. nigra and p. sylvestris palaeoecological-based habitat suitability models

In recent years, challenged by the climate scenarios put forward by the IPCC and its potential impact on plant distribution, numerous predictive techniques -including the so called habitat suitability models (HSM)- have been developed. Yet, as the output of the different methods produces different distribution areas, developing validation tools are strong needs to reduce uncertainties. Focused in the Iberian Peninsula, we propose a palaeo-based method to increase the robustness of the HSM, by developing an ecological approach to understand the mismatches between the palaeoecological information and the projections of the HSMs. Here, we present the result of (1) investigating causal relationships between environmental variables and presence of Pinus sylvestris L. and P. nigra Arn. available from the 3rd Spanish Forest Inventory, (2) developing present and past presence-predictions through the MaxEnt model for 6 and 21 kyr BP, and (3) assessing these models through comparisons with biomized palaeoecological data available from the European Pollen Database for the Iberian Peninsula.

In situ acoustic methods to estimate the physical and mechanical aging of oriented strand board

Following the success achieved in previous research projects usin non-destructive methods to estimate the physical and mechanical aging of particle and fibre boards, this paper studies the relationships between aging, physical and mechanical changes, using non-destructive measurements of oriented strand board (OSB). 184 pieces of OSB board from a French source were tested to analyze its actual physical and mechanical properties. The same properties were estimated using acoustic non-destructive methods (ultrasound and stress wave velocity) during a physical laboratory aging test. Measurements were recorded of propagation wave velocity with the sensors aligned, edge to edge, and forming an angle of 45 degrees, with both sensors on the same face of the board. This is because aligned measures are not possible on site. The velocity results are always higher in 45 degree measurements. Given the results of statistical analysis, it can be concluded that there is a strong relationship between acoustic measurements and the decline in physical and mechanical properties of the panels due to aging. The authors propose several models to estimate the physical and mechanical properties of board, as well as their degree of aging. The best results are obtained using ultrasound, although the difference in comparison with the stress wave method is not very significant. A reliable prediction of the degree of deterioration (aging) of board is presented.

Non-destructive methods to estimate physical aging of plywood

This paper studies the relationship between aging, physical changes and the results of non-destructive testing of plywood. 176 pieces of plywood were tested to analyze their actual and estimated density using non-destructive methods (screw withdrawal force and ultrasound wave velocity) during a laboratory aging test. From the results of statistical analysis it can be concluded that there is a strong relationship between the non-destructive measurements carried out, and the decline in the physical properties of the panels due to aging. The authors propose several models to estimate board density. The best results are obtained with ultrasound. A reliable prediction of the degree of deterioration (aging) of board is presented.

Factored Translation Models for improving a Speech into Sign Language Translation System

This paper proposes the use of Factored Translation Models (FTMs) for improving a Speech into Sign Language Translation System. These FTMs allow incorporating syntactic-semantic information during the translation process. This new information permits to reduce significantly the translation error rate. This paper also analyses different alternatives for dealing with the non-relevant words. The speech into sign language translation system has been developed and evaluated in a specific application domain: the renewal of Identity Documents and Driver’s License. The translation system uses a phrase-based translation system (Moses). The evaluation results reveal that the BLEU (BiLingual Evaluation Understudy) has improved from 69.1% to 73.9% and the mSER (multiple references Sign Error Rate) has been reduced from 30.6% to 24.8%.

Propuesta metodológica para la identificación de medidas de adaptación al cambio climático en sistemas de recursos hídricos

Esta tesis realiza una contribución metodológica en el estudio de medidas de adaptación potencialmente adecuadas a largo plazo, donde los sistemas de recursos hídricos experimentan fuertes presiones debido a los efectos del cambio climático. Esta metodología integra el análisis físico del sistema, basándose en el uso de indicadores que valoran el comportamiento de éste, y el análisis económico mediante el uso del valor del agua. El procedimiento metodológico inicia con la construcción de un conjunto de escenarios futuros, que capturan por un lado las características de variabilidad de las aportaciones de diversos modelos climáticos y, por otro, las características hidrológicas de la zona de estudio. Las zonas de estudio seleccionadas fueron las cuencas del Guadalquivir, Duero y Ebro y se utilizaron como datos observados las series de escorrentía en régimen natural estimadas por el modelo SIMPA que está calibrado en la totalidad del territorio español. Estas series observadas corresponden al periodo 1961-1990. Los escenarios futuros construidos representan el periodo 2071-2100. La identificación de medidas de adaptación se apoyó en el uso de indicadores que sean capaces de caracterizar el comportamiento de un sistema de recursos hídricos frente a los efectos del cambio climático. Para ello se seleccionaron los indicadores de calidad de servicio (I1) y de confiabilidad de la demanda (I2) propuestos por Martin-Carrasco et al. (2012). Estos indicadores valoran el comportamiento de un sistema mediante la identificación de los problemas de escasez de agua que presente, y requieren para su cuantificación el uso de un modelo de optimización. Para este estudio se ha trabajado con el modelo de optimización OPTIGES. La determinación de estos indicadores fue realizada para análisis a corto plazo donde los efectos del cambio climático no son de relevancia, por lo que fue necesario analizar su capacidad para ser usados en sistemas afectados por dichos efectos. Para este análisis se seleccionaron tres cuencas españolas: Guadalquivir, Duero y Ebro, determinándose que I2 no es adecuado para este tipo de escenarios. Por ello se propuso un nuevo indicador “Indicador de calidad de servicio bajo cambio climático” (I2p) que mantiene los mismos criterios de valoración que I2 pero que responde mejor bajo fuertes reducciones de aportaciones producto del cambio climático. La metodología propuesta para la identificación de medidas de adaptación se basa en un proceso iterativo en el cual se van afectando diversos elementos que conforman el esquema del sistema bajo acciones de gestión previamente identificadas, hasta llegar a un comportamiento óptimo dado por el gestor. Las mejoras de estas afectaciones son cuantificadas mediante los indicadores I1 e I2p, y de este conjunto de valores se selecciona la que se acerca más al comportamiento óptimo. Debido a la extensa cantidad de información manejada en este análisis, se desarrolló una herramienta de cálculo automatizada en Matlab. El proceso seguido por esta herramienta es: (i) Ejecución del modelo OPTIGES para las diferentes modificaciones por acciones de gestión; (ii) Cálculo de los valores de I1 e I2p para cada una de estas afectaciones; y (iii) Selección de la mejor opción. Este proceso se repite hasta llegar al comportamiento óptimo buscado, permitiendo la identificación de las medidas de adaptación mas adecuadas. La aplicación de la metodología para la identificación de medidas de adaptación se realizó en la cuenca del Guadalquivir, por ser de las tres cuencas analizadas bajo los indicadores I1 e I2p la que presenta los problemas más serios de escasez de agua. Para la identificación de medidas de adaptación se analizaron dos acciones de gestión: 1) incremento de los volúmenes de regulación y 2) reducción de las demandas de riego, primero bajo la valoración del comportamiento físico del sistema (análisis de sensibilidad) permitiendo identificar que la primera acción de gestión no genera cambios importantes en el comportamiento del sistema, que si se presentan bajo la segunda acción. Posteriormente, con la acción que genera cambios importantes en el comportamiento del sistema (segunda acción) se identificaron las medidas de adaptación más adecuadas, mediante el análisis físico y económico del sistema. Se concluyó que en la cuenca del Guadalquivir, la acción de reducción de las demandas de riego permite minimizar e incluso eliminar los problemas de escasez de agua que se presentarían a futuro bajo diferentes proyecciones hidrológicas, aunque estas mejoras implicarían fuertes reducciones en dichas demandas. Siendo las demandas más afectadas aquellas ubicadas en cabecera de cuenca. Los criterios para la reducción de las demandas se encuentran en función de las productividades y garantías con las que son atendidas dichas demandas. This thesis makes a methodological contribution to the study of potentially suitable adaptation measures in the long term, where water resource systems undergo strong pressure due to the effects of climate change. This methodology integrates the physical analysis of the system, by the use of indicators which assess its behavior, and the economic analysis by the use of the value of water. The methodological procedure begins with the building of a set of future scenarios that capture, by one hand, the characteristics and variability of the streamflow of various climate models and, on the other hand, the hydrological characteristics of the study area. The study areas chosen were the Guadalquivir, Ebro and Duero basins, and as observed data where used runoff series in natural regimen estimated by the SIMPA model, which is calibrated in the whole Spanish territory. The observed series are for the 1961-1990 period. The future scenarios built represent the 2071-2100 periods. The identification of adaptation measures relied on the use of indicators that were able of characterize the behavior of one water resource system facing the effects of climate change. Because of that, the Demand Satisfaction Index (I1) and the Demand Reliability Index (I2) proposed by Martin-Carrasco et al. (2012) were selected. These indicators assess the behavior of a system by identifying the water scarcity problems that it presents, and require in order to be quantified the use of one optimization model. For this study the OPTIGES optimization model has been used. The determination of the indicators was made for the short-term analysis where the climates change effect are not relevant, so it was necessary to analyze their capability to be used in systems affected by those these. For this analysis three Spanish basins were selected: Guadalquivir, Duero and Ebro. It was determined that the indicator I2 is not suitable for this type of scenario. It was proposed a new indicator called “Demand Reliability Index under climate change” (I2p), which keeps the same assessment criteria than I2, but responsive under heavy reductions of streamflow due to climate change. The proposed methodology for identifying adaptation measures is based on an iterative process, in which the different elements of the system´s schema are affected by previously defined management actions, until reach an optimal behavior given by the manager. The improvements of affectations are measured by indicators I1 e I2p, and from this set of values it is selected the affectation that is closer to the optimal behavior. Due to the large amount of information managed in this analysis, it was developed an automatic calculation tool in Matlab. The process followed by this tool is: Firstly, it executes the OPTIGES model for the different modifications by management actions; secondly, it calculates the values of I1 e I2p for each of these affectations; and finally it chooses the best option. This process is performed for the different iterations that are required until reach the optimal behavior, allowing to identify the most appropriate adaptation measured. The application of the methodology for the identification of adaptation measures was conducted in the Guadalquivir basin, due to this was from the three basins analyzed under the indicators I1 e I2p, which presents the most serious problems of water scarcity. For the identification of adaptation measures there were analyzed two management actions: 1) To increase the regulation volumes, and 2) to reduce the irrigation demands, first under the assessment of the physical behavior of the system (sensibility analysis), allowing to identify that the first management action does not generate significant changes in the system´s behavior, which there are present under the second management action. Afterwards, with the management action that generates significant changes in the system´s behavior (second management action), there were identified the most adequate adaptation measures, through the physical and economic analysis of the system. It was concluded that in the Guadalquivir basin, the action of reduction of irrigation demands allows to minimize or even eliminate the water scarcity problems that could exist in the future under different hydrologic projections, although this improvements should involve strong reductions of the irrigation demands. Being the most affected demands those located in basins head. The criteria for reducing the demands are based on the productivities and reliabilities with which such demands are meet.

Impact attribution models to evaluate drought effects: economic impacts, risk analyses and management strategies in Spain and Chile

La sequía es un fenómeno natural que se origina por el descenso de las precipitaciones con respecto a una media, y que resulta en la disponibilidad insuficiente de agua para alguna actividad. La creciente presión que se ha venido ejerciendo sobre los recursos hídricos ha hecho que los impactos de la sequía se hayan visto agravados a la vez que ha desencadenado situaciones de escasez de agua en muchas partes del planeta. Los países con clima mediterráneo son especialmente vulnerables a las sequías, y, su crecimiento económico dependiente del agua da lugar a impactos importantes. Para reducir los impactos de la sequía es necesaria una reducción de la vulnerabilidad a las sequías que viene dada por una gestión más eficiente y por una mejor preparación. Para ello es muy importante disponer de información acerca de los impactos y el alcance de este fenómeno natural. Esta investigación trata de abarcar el tema de los impactos de las sequías, de manera que plantea todos los tipos de impactos que pueden darse y además compara sus efectos en dos países (España y Chile). Para ello se proponen modelos de atribución de impactos que sean capaces de medir las pérdidas económicas causadas por la falta de agua. Los modelos propuestos tienen una base econométrica en la que se incluyen variables clave a la hora de evaluar los impactos como es una variable relacionada con la disponibilidad de agua, y otras de otra naturaleza para distinguir los efectos causados por otras fuentes de variación. Estos modelos se adaptan según la fase del estudio en la que nos encontremos. En primer lugar se miden los impactos directos sobre el regadío y se introduce en el modelo un factor de aleatoriedad para evaluar el riesgo económico de sequía. Esto se hace a dos niveles geográficos (provincial y de Unidad de Demanda Agraria) y además en el último se introduce no solo el riesgo de oferta sino también el riesgo de demanda de agua. La introducción de la perspectiva de riesgo en el modelo da lugar a una herramienta de gestión del riesgo económico que puede ser utilizada para estrategias de planificación. Más adelante una extensión del modelo econométrico se desarrolla para medir los impactos en el sector agrario (impactos directos sobre el regadío y el secano e impactos indirectos sobre la Agro Industria) para ello se adapta el modelo y se calculan elasticidades concatenadas entre la falta de agua y los impactos secundarios. Por último se plantea un modelo econométrico para el caso de estudio en Chile y se evalúa el impacto de las sequías debidas al fenómeno de La Niña. iv Los resultados en general muestran el valor que brinda el conocimiento más preciso acerca de los impactos, ya que en muchas ocasiones se tiende a sobreestimar los daños realmente producidos por la falta de agua. Los impactos indirectos de la sequía confirman su alcance a la vez que son amortiguados a medida que nos acercamos al ámbito macroeconómico. En el caso de Chile, su diferente gestión muestra el papel que juegan el fenómeno de El Niño y La Niña sobre los precios de los principales cultivos del país y sobre el crecimiento del sector. Para reducir las pérdidas y su alcance se deben plantear más medidas de mitigación que centren su esfuerzo en una gestión eficiente del recurso. Además la prevención debe jugar un papel muy importante para reducir los riesgos que pueden sufrirse ante situaciones de escasez. ABSTRACT Drought is a natural phenomenon that originates by the decrease in rainfall in comparison to the average, and that results in water shortages for some activities. The increasing pressure on water resources has augmented the impact of droughts just as water scarcity has become an additional problem in many parts of the planet. Countries with Mediterranean climate are especially vulnerable to drought, and its waterdependent economic growth leads to significant impacts. To reduce the negative impacts it is necessary to deal with drought vulnerability, and to achieve this objective a more efficient management is needed. The availability of information about the impacts and the scope of droughts become highly important. This research attempts to encompass the issue of drought impacts, and therefore it characterizes all impact types that may occur and also compares its effects in two different countries (Spain and Chile). Impact attribution models are proposed in order to measure the economic losses caused by the lack of water. The proposed models are based on econometric approaches and they include key variables for measuring the impacts. Variables related to water availability, crop prices or time trends are included to be able to distinguish the effects caused by any of the possible sources. These models are adapted for each of the parts of the study. First, the direct impacts on irrigation are measured and a source of variability is introduced into the model to assess the economic risk of drought. This is performed at two geographic levels provincial and Agricultural Demand Unit. In the latter, not only the supply risk is considered but also the water demand risk side. The introduction of the risk perspective into the model results in a risk management tool that can be used for planning strategies. Then an extension of the econometric model is developed to measure the impacts on the agricultural sector (direct impacts on irrigated and rainfed productions and indirect impacts on the Agri-food Industry). For this aim the model is adapted and concatenated elasticities between the lack of water and the impacts are estimated. Finally an econometric model is proposed for the Chilean case study to evaluate the impact of droughts, especially caused by El Niño Southern Oscillation. The overall results show the value of knowing better about the precise impacts that often tend to be overestimated. The models allow for measuring accurate impacts due to the lack of water. Indirect impacts of drought confirm their scope while they confirm also its dilution as we approach the macroeconomic variables. In the case of Chile, different management strategies of the country show the role of ENSO phenomena on main crop prices and on economic trends. More mitigation measures focused on efficient resource management are necessary to reduce drought losses. Besides prevention must play an important role to reduce the risks that may be suffered due to shortages.