Adverse aerodynamics effects of a high speed train under the influence of cross winds, analysis and optimization of wind fence

The research work that here is summarized, it is classed on the area of dynamics and measures of railway safety, specifically in the study of the influence of the cross wind on the high-speed trains as well as the study of new mitigation measures like wind breaking structures or wind fences, with optimized shapes. The work has been developed in the Research Center in Rail Technology (CITEF), and supported by the Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Spain.

Spectral-analysis-surface-waves-method in ground characterization

The prediction of train induced vibration levels in structures close to railway tracks before track construction starts is important in order to avoid having to implement costly mitigation measures afterwards. The used models require an accurate characterization of the propagation medium i.e. the soil layers. To this end the spectral analysis of surface waves (SASW) method has been chosen among the active surface waves techniques available. As dynamic source a modal sledge hammer has been used. The generated vibrations have been measured at known offsets by means of several accelerometers. There are many parameters involved in estimating the experimental dispersion curve and, later on, thickness and propagation velocities of the different layers. Tests have been carried out at the Segovia railway station. Its main building covers some of the railway tracks and vibration problems in the building should be avoided. In the paper these tests as well as the influence of several parameters on the estimated soil profile will be detailed.

Impact attribution models to evaluate drought effects: economic impacts, risk analyses and management strategies in Spain and Chile

La sequía es un fenómeno natural que se origina por el descenso de las precipitaciones con respecto a una media, y que resulta en la disponibilidad insuficiente de agua para alguna actividad. La creciente presión que se ha venido ejerciendo sobre los recursos hídricos ha hecho que los impactos de la sequía se hayan visto agravados a la vez que ha desencadenado situaciones de escasez de agua en muchas partes del planeta. Los países con clima mediterráneo son especialmente vulnerables a las sequías, y, su crecimiento económico dependiente del agua da lugar a impactos importantes. Para reducir los impactos de la sequía es necesaria una reducción de la vulnerabilidad a las sequías que viene dada por una gestión más eficiente y por una mejor preparación. Para ello es muy importante disponer de información acerca de los impactos y el alcance de este fenómeno natural. Esta investigación trata de abarcar el tema de los impactos de las sequías, de manera que plantea todos los tipos de impactos que pueden darse y además compara sus efectos en dos países (España y Chile). Para ello se proponen modelos de atribución de impactos que sean capaces de medir las pérdidas económicas causadas por la falta de agua. Los modelos propuestos tienen una base econométrica en la que se incluyen variables clave a la hora de evaluar los impactos como es una variable relacionada con la disponibilidad de agua, y otras de otra naturaleza para distinguir los efectos causados por otras fuentes de variación. Estos modelos se adaptan según la fase del estudio en la que nos encontremos. En primer lugar se miden los impactos directos sobre el regadío y se introduce en el modelo un factor de aleatoriedad para evaluar el riesgo económico de sequía. Esto se hace a dos niveles geográficos (provincial y de Unidad de Demanda Agraria) y además en el último se introduce no solo el riesgo de oferta sino también el riesgo de demanda de agua. La introducción de la perspectiva de riesgo en el modelo da lugar a una herramienta de gestión del riesgo económico que puede ser utilizada para estrategias de planificación. Más adelante una extensión del modelo econométrico se desarrolla para medir los impactos en el sector agrario (impactos directos sobre el regadío y el secano e impactos indirectos sobre la Agro Industria) para ello se adapta el modelo y se calculan elasticidades concatenadas entre la falta de agua y los impactos secundarios. Por último se plantea un modelo econométrico para el caso de estudio en Chile y se evalúa el impacto de las sequías debidas al fenómeno de La Niña. iv Los resultados en general muestran el valor que brinda el conocimiento más preciso acerca de los impactos, ya que en muchas ocasiones se tiende a sobreestimar los daños realmente producidos por la falta de agua. Los impactos indirectos de la sequía confirman su alcance a la vez que son amortiguados a medida que nos acercamos al ámbito macroeconómico. En el caso de Chile, su diferente gestión muestra el papel que juegan el fenómeno de El Niño y La Niña sobre los precios de los principales cultivos del país y sobre el crecimiento del sector. Para reducir las pérdidas y su alcance se deben plantear más medidas de mitigación que centren su esfuerzo en una gestión eficiente del recurso. Además la prevención debe jugar un papel muy importante para reducir los riesgos que pueden sufrirse ante situaciones de escasez. ABSTRACT Drought is a natural phenomenon that originates by the decrease in rainfall in comparison to the average, and that results in water shortages for some activities. The increasing pressure on water resources has augmented the impact of droughts just as water scarcity has become an additional problem in many parts of the planet. Countries with Mediterranean climate are especially vulnerable to drought, and its waterdependent economic growth leads to significant impacts. To reduce the negative impacts it is necessary to deal with drought vulnerability, and to achieve this objective a more efficient management is needed. The availability of information about the impacts and the scope of droughts become highly important. This research attempts to encompass the issue of drought impacts, and therefore it characterizes all impact types that may occur and also compares its effects in two different countries (Spain and Chile). Impact attribution models are proposed in order to measure the economic losses caused by the lack of water. The proposed models are based on econometric approaches and they include key variables for measuring the impacts. Variables related to water availability, crop prices or time trends are included to be able to distinguish the effects caused by any of the possible sources. These models are adapted for each of the parts of the study. First, the direct impacts on irrigation are measured and a source of variability is introduced into the model to assess the economic risk of drought. This is performed at two geographic levels provincial and Agricultural Demand Unit. In the latter, not only the supply risk is considered but also the water demand risk side. The introduction of the risk perspective into the model results in a risk management tool that can be used for planning strategies. Then an extension of the econometric model is developed to measure the impacts on the agricultural sector (direct impacts on irrigated and rainfed productions and indirect impacts on the Agri-food Industry). For this aim the model is adapted and concatenated elasticities between the lack of water and the impacts are estimated. Finally an econometric model is proposed for the Chilean case study to evaluate the impact of droughts, especially caused by El Niño Southern Oscillation. The overall results show the value of knowing better about the precise impacts that often tend to be overestimated. The models allow for measuring accurate impacts due to the lack of water. Indirect impacts of drought confirm their scope while they confirm also its dilution as we approach the macroeconomic variables. In the case of Chile, different management strategies of the country show the role of ENSO phenomena on main crop prices and on economic trends. More mitigation measures focused on efficient resource management are necessary to reduce drought losses. Besides prevention must play an important role to reduce the risks that may be suffered due to shortages.

Latest developments in data analysis tools for disruption prediction and for the exploration of multimachine operational spaces.

In the last years significant efforts have been devoted to the development of advanced data analysis tools to both predict the occurrence of disruptions and to investigate the operational spaces of devices, with the long term goal of advancing the understanding of the physics of these events and to prepare for ITER. On JET the latest generation of the disruption predictor called APODIS has been deployed in the real time network during the last campaigns with the new metallic wall. Even if it was trained only with discharges with the carbon wall, it has reached very good performance, with both missed alarms and false alarms in the order of a few percent (and strategies to improve the performance have already been identified). Since for the optimisation of the mitigation measures, predicting also the type of disruption is considered to be also very important, a new clustering method, based on the geodesic distance on a probabilistic manifold, has been developed. This technique allows automatic classification of an incoming disruption with a success rate of better than 85%. Various other manifold learning tools, particularly Principal Component Analysis and Self Organised Maps, are also producing very interesting results in the comparative analysis of JET and ASDEX Upgrade (AUG) operational spaces, on the route to developing predictors capable of extrapolating from one device to another.

Ingeniería de la conservación: Investigación aplicada para la conservación de la fauna mediterránea amenazada

El ser humano nunca ha tenido una capacidad semejante a la actual para alterar el medio en el que vive. A través fundamentalmente de cambios en el uso del hábitat, alteración de los ciclos biogeoquímicos, cambio climático y presencia de especies invasoras, la tasa de extinción de especies se ha acelerado enormemente. Al crecer más rápido la población humana dentro de las áreas en las que se concentra una mayor biodiversidad (biodiversity hotspots), las tasas de transformación son mayores, por lo que dicha biodiversidad se encuentra más amenazada. Entre los principales 25 biodiversity hotspots globales se encuentra la cuenca mediterránea. Las afecciones a la biodiversidad hacen por tanto que en dicha cuenca mediterránea sea necesario poner en práctica iniciativas innovadoras para su conservación. Pero además de una cuidadosa selección, es necesario el seguimiento y la evaluación de la eficacia y la eficienca de dichas medidas, para comprobar su idoneidad y mejorarlas cuando sea posible. Esta es la tarea de la ingeniería de la conservación. Esta Memoria busca analizar y proponer mejoras en cuatro acciones experimentales de conservación de la biodiversidad que tienen un marco común, la conservación de especies subrogadas del monte mediterráneo. En concreto de cinco especies amenazadas: conejo de monte (Oryctolagus cuniculus, especie llave), águila imperial ibérica (Aquila adalberti), águila perdicera (Aquila fasciata), cigüeña negra (Ciconia nigra) y lince ibérico (Lynx pardinus), todas ellas especies paraguas y bandera. Casi todas estas especies se enfrentan a amenazas comunes, como son la pérdida de la calidad del hábitat, la mortalidad de origen humano, la escasez de alimento o la falta de eficiencia en las técnicas de seguimiento. Las acciones destinadas a revertir o minimizar estas amenazas han tenido un marco geográfico y ecológico común, 49 fincas privadas de monte mediterráneo situadas en 9 espacios de la Red Natura 2000 del centro-occidental peninsular, en las que se ha podido trabajar merced a acuerdos de custodia del territorio. Dichas actividades han sido financiadas casi por completo con cargo a fondos LIFE Naturaleza de la Comisión Europea. El presente documento contribuye a aportar el conocimiento científico imprescindible para mejorar la eficacia y eficiencia de las medidas técnicas de gestión y conservación: la ingeniería de la conservación. Como resultados más relevantes se pueden citar que la selección del conejo de las zonas sembradas aumenta con la presencia tanto de isletas de matorral como de refugios y resulta inferior en las zonas de matorral más cerrado; que la electrocución es una de las principales causas de mortalidad de las rapaces amenazadas, así como que se ha detectado que la mortalidad se concentra en determinadas zonas que deben ser prioritarias para su corrección y que éstas deben pasar por las modificaciones estructurales; que la selección de zonas de alimentación por parte de la cigüeña negra se ve afectada por numerosos factores y que una adecuada ubicación y gestión de las charcas para ganadería y caza mayor puede favorecer no sólo la alimentación de esta especie, sino suponer un lugar de cría para diversas especies de anfibios y peces autóctonos, en franco declive; finalmente, hay que destacar que la mejora en el seguimiento de las poblaciones de lince ibérico pasa por la incorporación de métodos de seguimiento novedosos, como las cámaras infrarrojas en letrinas, dada la capacidad de aprendizaje de la especie. Abstract Nowadays the human being has reached its top ability to exchange its environment. Mainly through habitat change, altering biogeochemical cycles, climatic change and alien species, global extinction rate has increased dramatically. Population increases faster in biodiversity hotspots, thus change rates are higher. Mediterranean basin is included within the 25 most valuable biodiversity hotspots. Affections on biodiversity turns necessary to develop innovative actions to maintain the most threatened species in this hotspot. But further than a careful selection and implementarion, survey and evaluation of those practices is necessary to check its suitability. Those are actions for the conservation engineering. This Memory looks for to analyze and to put forward improvements in four experimental biodiversity conservation actions with a common framework: conservation of surrogate Mediterranean species. Those actions were specifically directed to five threatened species: the European wild rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus, key species), Spanish imperial eagle (Aquila adalberti) and Bonelli’s eagle (Aquila fasciata, both of the umbrella and flagship species), black stork (Ciconia nigra, umbrella and flagship species) and the Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus, umbrella and flagship species). Those species have common threats: habitat loss, maninduced mortality, food shortening and lack of surveying efficiency. Actions aimed to minimize those threats also had a common geographical frame: 49 privately owned states within 9 Natura 2000 areas in Southwestern Spain. Actions were developed through lands tewardship agreements, and were even wholly undertaken through European Commision LIFE’s fund. This document contributes to develop cientific knowledge necessary for increasing efficacy and efficiency for implementing technical measures devoted to conservation, the conservation engineering. One of the most outstanding result might be the necessity of including bushy islets or rabbit shelter within sowings when enhacing rabbit populations is the goal. Electrocution is one of the commonest man-induced death causes for raptors, especially for the threatened ones. Areas of concentration of this mortality have been detected, and when mitigation measures have been evaluated, only structural modifications had results. The black stork’s selection of feeding areas is influenced by several factors. An adequate location and management of livestock’s ponds can favour not only this species, but also creating new breeding places for amphibians and indigenous fish species, most of them in a sharp decline. Finally, improving the survey of the Iberian lynx might be achieved through implementing newly developed surveying systems, such as the infrared cameras in latrines.

Farm nitrogen balances in six European landscapes as an indicator for nitrogen losses and basis for improved management.

Improved management of nitrogen (N) in agriculture is necessary to achieve a sustainable balance between the production of food and other biomass, and the unwanted effects of N on water pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity deterioration and human health. To analyse farm N-losses and the complex interactions within farming systems, efficient methods for identifying emissions hotspots and evaluating mitigation measures are therefore needed. The present paper aims to fill this gap at the farm and landscape scales. Six agricultural landscapes in Poland (PL), the Netherlands (NL), France (FR), Italy (IT), Scotland (UK) and Denmark (DK) were studied, and a common method was developed for undertaking farm inventories and the derivation of farm N balances, N surpluses and for evaluating uncertainty for the 222 farms and 11 440 ha of farmland included in the study. In all landscapes, a large variation in the farm N surplus was found, and thereby a large potential for reductions. The highest average N surpluses were found in the most livestock-intensive landscapes of IT, FR, and NL; on average 202 ± 28, 179 ± 63 and 178 ± 20 kg N ha−1 yr−1, respectively. All landscapes showed hotspots, especially from livestock farms, including a special UK case with large-scale landless poultry farming. Overall, the average N surplus from the land-based UK farms dominated by extensive sheep and cattle grazing was only 31 ± 10 kg N ha−1 yr−1, but was similar to the N surplus of PL and DK (122 ± 20 and 146 ± 55 kg N ha−1 yr−1, respectively) when landless poultry farming was included. We found farm N balances to be a useful indicator for N losses and the potential for improving N management. Significant correlations to N surplus were found, both with ammonia air concentrations and nitrate concentrations in soils and groundwater, measured during the period of N management data collection in the landscapes from 2007–2009. This indicates that farm N surpluses may be used as an independent dataset for validation of measured and modelled N emissions in agricultural landscapes. No significant correlation was found with N measured in surface waters, probably because of spatial and temporal variations in groundwater buffering and biogeochemical reactions affecting N flows from farm to surface waters. A case study of the development in N surplus from the landscape in DK from 1998–2008 showed a 22% reduction related to measures targeted at N emissions from livestock farms. Based on the large differences in N surplus between average N management farms and the most modern and N-efficient farms, it was concluded that additional N-surplus reductions of 25–50%, as compared to the present level, were realistic in all landscapes. The implemented N-surplus method was thus effective for comparing and synthesizing results on farm N emissions and the potentials of mitigation options. It is recommended for use in combination with other methods for the assessment of landscape N emissions and farm N efficiency, including more detailed N source and N sink hotspot mapping, measurements and modelling.

High Fidelity Models for Near-Earth Object Dynamics

Motivado por los últimos hallazgos realizados gracias a los recientes avances tecnológicos y misiones espaciales, el estudio de los asteroides ha despertado el interés de la comunidad científica. Tal es así que las misiones a asteroides han proliferado en los últimos años (Hayabusa, Dawn, OSIRIX-REx, ARM, AIMS-DART, ...) incentivadas por su enorme interés científico. Los asteroides son constituyentes fundamentales en la evolución del Sistema Solar, son además grandes concentraciones de valiosos recursos naturales, y también pueden considerarse como objectivos estratégicos para la futura exploración espacial. Desde hace tiempo se viene especulando con la posibilidad de capturar objetos próximos a la Tierra (NEOs en su acrónimo anglosajón) y acercarlos a nuestro planeta, permitiendo así un acceso asequible a los mismos para estudiarlos in-situ, explotar sus recursos u otras finalidades. Por otro lado, las asteroides se consideran con frecuencia como posibles peligros de magnitud planetaria, ya que impactos de estos objetos con la Tierra suceden constantemente, y un asteroide suficientemente grande podría desencadenar eventos catastróficos. Pese a la gravedad de tales acontecimientos, lo cierto es que son ciertamente difíciles de predecir. De hecho, los ricos aspectos dinámicos de los asteroides, su modelado complejo y las incertidumbres observaciones hacen que predecir su posición futura con la precisión necesaria sea todo un reto. Este hecho se hace más relevante cuando los asteroides sufren encuentros próximos con la Tierra, y más aún cuando estos son recurrentes. En tales situaciones en las cuales fuera necesario tomar medidas para mitigar este tipo de riesgos, saber estimar con precisión sus trayectorias y probabilidades de colisión es de una importancia vital. Por ello, se necesitan herramientas avanzadas para modelar su dinámica y predecir sus órbitas con precisión, y son también necesarios nuevos conceptos tecnológicos para manipular sus órbitas llegado el caso. El objetivo de esta Tesis es proporcionar nuevos métodos, técnicas y soluciones para abordar estos retos. Las contribuciones de esta Tesis se engloban en dos áreas: una dedicada a la propagación numérica de asteroides, y otra a conceptos de deflexión y captura de asteroides. Por lo tanto, la primera parte de este documento presenta novedosos avances de apliación a la propagación dinámica de alta precisión de NEOs empleando métodos de regularización y perturbaciones, con especial énfasis en el método DROMO, mientras que la segunda parte expone ideas innovadoras para la captura de asteroides y comenta el uso del “ion beam shepherd” (IBS) como tecnología para deflectarlos. Abstract Driven by the latest discoveries enabled by recent technological advances and space missions, the study of asteroids has awakened the interest of the scientific community. In fact, asteroid missions have become very popular in the recent years (Hayabusa, Dawn, OSIRIX-REx, ARM, AIMS-DART, ...) motivated by their outstanding scientific interest. Asteroids are fundamental constituents in the evolution of the Solar System, can be seen as vast concentrations of valuable natural resources, and are also considered as strategic targets for the future of space exploration. For long it has been hypothesized with the possibility of capturing small near-Earth asteroids and delivering them to the vicinity of the Earth in order to allow an affordable access to them for in-situ science, resource utilization and other purposes. On the other side of the balance, asteroids are often seen as potential planetary hazards, since impacts with the Earth happen all the time, and eventually an asteroid large enough could trigger catastrophic events. In spite of the severity of such occurrences, they are also utterly hard to predict. In fact, the rich dynamical aspects of asteroids, their complex modeling and observational uncertainties make exceptionally challenging to predict their future position accurately enough. This becomes particularly relevant when asteroids exhibit close encounters with the Earth, and more so when these happen recurrently. In such situations, where mitigation measures may need to be taken, it is of paramount importance to be able to accurately estimate their trajectories and collision probabilities. As a consequence, advanced tools are needed to model their dynamics and accurately predict their orbits, as well as new technological concepts to manipulate their orbits if necessary. The goal of this Thesis is to provide new methods, techniques and solutions to address these challenges. The contributions of this Thesis fall into two areas: one devoted to the numerical propagation of asteroids, and another to asteroid deflection and capture concepts. Hence, the first part of the dissertation presents novel advances applicable to the high accuracy dynamical propagation of near-Earth asteroids using regularization and perturbations techniques, with a special emphasis in the DROMO method, whereas the second part exposes pioneering ideas for asteroid retrieval missions and discusses the use of an “ion beam shepherd” (IBS) for asteroid deflection purposes.

Planning and Management of Mobility in Natural Protected Areas

The paper describes some relevant results of an on-going research aiming to elaborate a methodology to help the mobility management in natural parks, compatible with their protection missions: it has been developed a procedure to reproduce the mobility-environment relationships in various operational conditions. The final purpose is the identification of: a) the effects of various choices in transport planning, both at long term and strategic level; b) the most effective policies of mobility management. The work is articulated in the following steps: 1) definition of protected area on the basis of ecological and socio-economic criteria and legislative constraints; 2) analysis of mobility needs in the protected areas; 3) reconstruction of the state of the art of mobility management in natural parks at European level; 4) analysis of used traffic flows measurement methods; 5) analysis of environmental impacts due to transport systems modelling (air pollution and noise only); 6) identification of mitigation measures to be potentially applied. The whole methodology has been tested and validated on Italian case studies: i) the concerned area has been zoned according to the land-use peculiarities; ii) the local situations of transport infrastructure (roads and parking), services (public transport systems) and rules (traffic regulations) have been mapped with references to physical and functional attributes; iii) the mobility, both systematic and touristic, has been represented in an origin-destination matrix. By means of an assignment model the flows have been distributed and the corresponding average speeds to quantify gaseous and noise emissions was calculated, the criticalities in the reference scenario have been highlighted, as well as some alternative scenarios, including both operational and infrastructural measures have been identified. The comparison between projects and reference scenario allowed the quantification of effects (variation of emissions) for each scenario and a selection of the most effective management actions to be taken.

Study of PM10 and PM2.5 levels in three European cities: Analysis of intra and inter urban variations

In the present paper, 1-year PM10 and PM 2.5 data from roadside and urban background monitoring stations in Athens (Greece), Madrid (Spain) and London (UK) are analysed in relation to other air pollutants (NO,NO2,NOx,CO,O3 and SO2)and several meteorological parameters (wind velocity, temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, solar radiation and atmospheric pressure), in order to investigate the sources and factors affecting particulate pollution in large European cities. Principal component and regression analyses are therefore used to quantify the contribution of both combustion and non-combustion sources to the PM10 and PM 2.5 levels observed. The analysis reveals that the EU legislated PM 10 and PM2.5 limit values are frequently breached, forming a potential public health hazard in the areas studied. The seasonal variability patterns of particulates varies among cities and sites, with Athens and Madrid presenting higher PM10 concentrations during the warm period and suggesting the larger relative contribution of secondary and natural particles during hot and dry days. It is estimated that the contribution of non-combustion sources varies substantially among cities, sites and seasons and ranges between 38-67% and 40-62% in London, 26-50% and 20-62% in Athens, and 31-58% and 33-68% in Madrid, for both PM10 and PM 2.5. Higher contributions from non-combustion sources are found at urban background sites in all three cities, whereas in the traffic sites the seasonal differences are smaller. In addition, the non-combustion fraction of both particle metrics is higher during the warm season at all sites. On the whole, the analysis provides evidence of the substantial impact of non-combustion sources on local air quality in all three cities. While vehicular exhaust emissions carry a large part of the risk posed on human health by particle exposure, it is most likely that mitigation measures designed for their reduction will have a major effect only at traffic sites and additional measures will be necessary for the control of background levels. However, efforts in mitigation strategies should always focus on optimal health effects.

Planning and management of mobility in natural protected areas

The final purpose is the identification of: a) the effects of various choices in transport planning, both at long term and strategic level; b) the most effective policies of mobility management. The preliminary work was articulated in the following steps: 1) definition of protected area on the basis of ecological and socio-economic criteria and legislative constraints; 2) analysis of mobility needs in the protected areas; 3) reconstruction of the state of the art of mobility management in natural parks at European level; 4) analysis of used traffic flows measurement methods; 5) analysis of environmental impacts due to transport systems modelling (limited to air pollution and noise); 6) identification of mitigation measures to the potentially applied. The whole methodology has been firstly tested on the case study of the National Park of ?Gran Sasso and Monti della Laga? and further validated on the National Park of ?Gargano?, both located Italy: i) the concerned area has been zoned according to the land-use peculiarities; ii) the local situations of transport infrastructure (roads and parking), services (public transport systems) and rules (traffic regulations) have been mapped with references to physical and functional attributes; iii) the mobility, both systematic and touristic, has been synthetically represented in an origin-destination matrix. By means of an assignment model it has been determined the distribution of flows and the corresponding average speeds to quantify gaseous and noise emissions. On this basis the environmental criticalities in the reference scenario have been highlighted, as well as some alternative scenarios including both operational and infrastructural measures have been identified. The comparison between the projects and the reference scenario allowed the quantification of the effects (variation of emissions) for each scenario and a selection of the most effective management actions to be taken.

Farmers behaviour on mitigation and adaptation to climate change: A case study in Kenya.

Farmers in Africa are facing climate change and challenging rural livelihoods while maintaining agricultural systems that are not resilient. By 2050 the mean estimates of production of key staple crops in Africa such as maize, sorghum, millet, groundnut, and cassava are expected to decrease by between 8 and 22 percent (Schlenker and Lobell 2010). In Kenya, although projections of rainfall do not show dramatic decreases, the distribution of impacts is clearly negative for most crops. As increases in temperature will lead to increases in evapotranspiration, a potential increase in rainfall in Kenya may not offset the expected increases in agricultural water needs (Herrero et al. 2010). In order to respond to these present and future challenges, potential mitigation and adaptation options have been developed. However, implementation is not evident. In addition to their benefits in either mitigating or reducing the vulnerability of climate change effects, many of these options do not have economic costs and even provide economic benefits (e.g. savings in the consumption of energy or natural resources). Nevertheless, it is demonstrated that even when there are no biophysical, technological or economic constraints and despite their potential benefits from either the economic or environmental climate change point of view, not all farmers are willing to adopt these measures. This reflects the key role that behavioural barriers can play in the uptake of mitigation and adaptation measures.

Towards mitigation of greenhouse gases by small changes in farming practices: understanding local barriers in Spain.

Small changes in agricultural practices have a large potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, the implementation of such practices at the local level is often limited by a range of barriers. Understanding the barriers is essential for defining effective measures, the actual mitigation potential of the measures, and the policy needs to ensure implementation. Here we evaluate behavioural, cultural, and policy barriers for implementation of mitigation practices at the local level that imply small changes to farmers. The choice of potential mitigation practices relevant to the case study is based on a literature review of previous empirical studies. Two methods that include the stakeholders? involvement (experts and farmers) are undertaken for the prioritization of these potential practices: (a) Multi-criteria analysis (MCA) of the choices of an expert panel and (b) Analysis of barriers to implementation based on a survey of farmers. The MCA considers two future climate scenarios ? current climate and a drier and warmer climate scenario. Results suggest that all potential selected practices are suitable for mitigation considering multiple criteria in both scenarios. Nevertheless, if all the barriers for implementation had the same influence, the preferred mitigation practices in the case study would be changes in fertilization management and use of cover crops. The identification of barriers for the implementation of the practices is based on the econometric analysis of surveys given to farmers. Results show that farmers? environmental concerns, financial incentives and access to technical advice are the main factors that define their barriers to implementation. These results may contribute to develop effective mitigation policy to be included in the 2020 review of the European Union Common Agricultural Policy.

Exploring strategic farming choices to respond to mitigation and adaptation to climate change

Las alteraciones del sistema climático debido al aumento de concentraciones de gases de efecto invernadero (GEI) en la atmósfera, tendrán implicaciones importantes para la agricultura, el medio ambiente y la sociedad. La agricultura es una fuente importante de emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero (globalmente contribuye al 12% del total de GEI), y al mismo tiempo puede ser parte de la solución para mitigar las emisiones y adaptarse al cambio climático. Las acciones frente al desafío del cambio climático deben priorizar estrategias de adaptación y mitigación en la agricultura dentro de la agenda para el desarrollo de políticas. La agricultura es por tanto crucial para la conservación y el uso sostenible de los recursos naturales, que ya están sometidos a impactos del cambio climático, al mismo tiempo que debe suministrar alimentos para una población creciente. Por tanto, es necesaria una coordinación entre las actuales estrategias de política climática y agrícola. El concepto de agricultura climáticamente inteligente ha surgido para integrar todos estos servicios de la producción agraria. Al evaluar opciones para reducir las amenazas del cambio climático para la agricultura y el medio ambiente, surgen dos preguntas de investigación: • ¿Qué información es necesaria para definir prácticas agrarias inteligentes? • ¿Qué factores influyen en la implementación de las prácticas agrarias inteligentes? Esta Tesis trata de proporcionar información relevante sobre estas cuestiones generales con el fin de apoyar el desarrollo de la política climática. Se centra en sistemas agrícolas Mediterráneos. Esta Tesis integra diferentes métodos y herramientas para evaluar las alternativas de gestión agrícola y políticas con potencial para responder a las necesidades de mitigación y adaptación al cambio climático. La investigación incluye enfoques cuantitativos y cualitativos e integra variables agronómicas, de clima y socioeconómicas a escala local y regional. La investigación aporta una recopilación de datos sobre evidencia experimental existente, y un estudio integrado sobre el comportamiento de los agricultores y las posibles alternativas de cambio (por ejemplo, la tecnología, la gestión agrícola y la política climática). Los casos de estudio de esta Tesis - el humedal de Doñana (S España) y la región de Aragón (NE España) - permiten ilustrar dos sistemas Mediterráneos representativos, donde el uso intensivo de la agricultura y las condiciones semiáridas son ya una preocupación. Por este motivo, la adopción de estrategias de mitigación y adaptación puede desempeñar un papel muy importante a la hora de encontrar un equilibrio entre la equidad, la seguridad económica y el medio ambiente en los escenarios de cambio climático. La metodología multidisciplinar de esta tesis incluye una amplia gama de enfoques y métodos para la recopilación y el análisis de datos. La toma de datos se apoya en la revisión bibliográfica de evidencia experimental, bases de datos públicas nacionales e internacionales y datos primarios recopilados mediante entrevistas semi-estructuradas con los grupos de interés (administraciones públicas, responsables políticos, asesores agrícolas, científicos y agricultores) y encuestas con agricultores. Los métodos de análisis incluyen: meta-análisis, modelos de gestión de recursos hídricos (modelo WAAPA), análisis multicriterio para la toma de decisiones, métodos estadísticos (modelos de regresión logística y de Poisson) y herramientas para el desarrollo de políticas basadas en la ciencia. El meta-análisis identifica los umbrales críticos de temperatura que repercuten en el crecimiento y el desarrollo de los tres cultivos principales para la seguridad alimentaria (arroz, maíz y trigo). El modelo WAAPA evalúa el efecto del cambio climático en la gestión del agua para la agricultura de acuerdo a diferentes alternativas políticas y escenarios climáticos. El análisis multicriterio evalúa la viabilidad de las prácticas agrícolas de mitigación en dos escenarios climáticos de acuerdo a la percepción de diferentes expertos. Los métodos estadísticos analizan los determinantes y las barreras para la adopción de prácticas agrícolas de mitigación. Las herramientas para el desarrollo de políticas basadas en la ciencia muestran el potencial y el coste para reducir GEI mediante las prácticas agrícolas. En general, los resultados de esta Tesis proporcionan información sobre la adaptación y la mitigación del cambio climático a nivel de explotación para desarrollar una política climática más integrada y ayudar a los agricultores en la toma de decisiones. Los resultados muestran las temperaturas umbral y la respuesta del arroz, el maíz y el trigo a temperaturas extremas, siendo estos valores de gran utilidad para futuros estudios de impacto y adaptación. Los resultados obtenidos también aportan una serie de estrategias flexibles para la adaptación y la mitigación a escala local, proporcionando a su vez una mejor comprensión sobre las barreras y los incentivos para su adopción. La capacidad de mejorar la disponibilidad de agua y el potencial y el coste de reducción de GEI se han estimado para estas estrategias en los casos de estudio. Estos resultados podrían ayudar en el desarrollo de planes locales de adaptación y políticas regionales de mitigación, especialmente en las regiones Mediterráneas. ABSTRACT Alterations in the climatic system due to increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) are expected to have important implications for agriculture, the environment and society. Agriculture is an important source of GHG emissions (12 % of global anthropogenic GHG), but it is also part of the solution to mitigate emissions and to adapt to climate change. Responses to face the challenge of climate change should place agricultural adaptation and mitigation strategies at the heart of the climate change agenda. Agriculture is crucial for the conservation and sustainable use of natural resources, which already stand under pressure due to climate change impacts, increased population, pollution and fragmented and uncoordinated climate policy strategies. The concept of climate smart agriculture has emerged to encompass all these issues as a whole. When assessing choices aimed at reducing threats to agriculture and the environment under climate change, two research questions arise: • What information defines smart farming choices? • What drives the implementation of smart farming choices? This Thesis aims to provide information on these broad questions in order to support climate policy development focusing in some Mediterranean agricultural systems. This Thesis integrates methods and tools to evaluate potential farming and policy choices to respond to mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The assessment involves both quantitative and qualitative approaches and integrates agronomic, climate and socioeconomic variables at local and regional scale. The assessment includes the collection of data on previous experimental evidence, and the integration of farmer behaviour and policy choices (e.g., technology, agricultural management and climate policy). The case study areas -- the Doñana coastal wetland (S Spain) and the Aragón region (NE Spain) – illustrate two representative Mediterranean regions where the intensive use of agriculture and the semi-arid conditions are already a concern. Thus the adoption of mitigation and adaptation measures can play a significant role for reaching a balance among equity, economic security and the environment under climate change scenarios. The multidisciplinary methodology of this Thesis includes a wide range of approaches for collecting and analysing data. The data collection process include revision of existing experimental evidence, public databases and the contribution of primary data gathering by semi-structured interviews with relevant stakeholders (i.e., public administrations, policy makers, agricultural advisors, scientist and farmers among others) and surveys given to farmers. The analytical methods include meta-analysis, water availability models (WAAPA model), decision making analysis (MCA, multi-criteria analysis), statistical approaches (Logistic and Poisson regression models) and science-base policy tools (MACC, marginal abatement cost curves and SOC abatement wedges). The meta-analysis identifies the critical temperature thresholds which impact on the growth and development of three major crops (i.e., rice, maize and wheat). The WAAPA model assesses the effect of climate change for agricultural water management under different policy choices and climate scenarios. The multi-criteria analysis evaluates the feasibility of mitigation farming practices under two climate scenarios according to the expert views. The statistical approaches analyses the drivers and the barriers for the adoption of mitigation farming practices. The science-base policy tools illustrate the mitigation potential and cost effectiveness of the farming practices. Overall, the results of this Thesis provide information to adapt to, and mitigate of, climate change at farm level to support the development of a comprehensive climate policy and to assist farmers. The findings show the key temperature thresholds and response to extreme temperature effects for rice, maize and wheat, so such responses can be included into crop impact and adaptation models. A portfolio of flexible adaptation and mitigation choices at local scale are identified. The results also provide a better understanding of the stakeholders oppose or support to adopt the choices which could be used to incorporate in local adaptation plans and mitigation regional policy. The findings include estimations for the farming and policy choices on the capacity to improve water supply reliability, abatement potential and cost-effective in Mediterranean regions.