Evaluación de la distribución de riesgos en los distintos modelos de asociación público-privada para la provisión de infraestructura carretera en México

México es de los pocos países en el mundo que ha realizado dos grandes programas para la construcción de autopistas en colaboración con el sector privado. El primero, fue realizado entre 1989 y 1994, con resultados adversos por el mal diseño del esquema de concesiones; y, el segundo con mejores resultados, en operación desde 2003 mediante nuevos modelos de asociación público-privada (APP). El objetivo de la presente investigación es estudiar los modelos de asociación público-privada empleados en México para la provisión de infraestructura carretera, realizando el análisis y la evaluación de la distribución de riesgos entre el sector público y privado en cada uno de los modelos con el propósito de establecer una propuesta de reasignación de riesgos para disminuir el costo global y la incertidumbre de los proyectos. En la primera parte se describe el estado actual del conocimiento de las asociaciones público-privadas para desarrollar proyectos de infraestructura, incluyendo los antecedentes, la definición y las tipologías de los esquemas APP, así como la práctica internacional de programas como el modelo británico Private Finance Initiative (PFI), resultados de proyectos en la Unión Europea y programas APP en otros países. También, se destaca la participación del sector privado en el financiamiento de la infraestructura del transporte de México en la década de 1990. En los capítulos centrales se aborda el estudio de los modelos APP que se han utilizado en el país en la construcción de la red de carreteras de alta capacidad. Se presentan las características y los resultados del programa de autopistas 1989-94, así como el rescate financiero y las medidas de reestructuración de los proyectos concesionados, aspectos que obligaron a las autoridades mexicanas a cambiar la normatividad para la aprobación de los proyectos según su rentabilidad, modificar la legislación de caminos y diseñar nuevos esquemas de colaboración entre el gobierno y el sector privado. Los nuevos modelos APP vigentes desde 2003 son: nuevo modelo de concesiones para desarrollar autopistas de peaje, modelo de proyectos de prestación de servicios (peaje sombra) para modernizar carreteras existentes y modelo de aprovechamiento de activos para concesionar autopistas de peaje en operación a cambio de un pago. De estos modelos se realizaron estudios de caso en los que se determinan medidas de desempeño operativo (niveles de tráfico, costos y plazos de construcción) y rentabilidad financiera (tasa interna de retorno y valor presente neto). En la última parte se efectúa la identificación, análisis y evaluación de los riesgos que afectaron los costos, el tiempo de ejecución y la rentabilidad de los proyectos de ambos programas. Entre los factores de riesgo analizados se encontró que los más importantes fueron: las condiciones macroeconómicas del país (inflación, producto interno bruto, tipo de cambio y tasa de interés), deficiencias en la planificación de los proyectos (diseño, derecho de vía, tarifas, permisos y estimación del tránsito) y aportaciones públicas en forma de obra. Mexico is one of the few countries in the world that has developed two major programs for highway construction in collaboration with the private sector. The first one was carried out between 1989 and 1994 with adverse outcomes due to the wrong design of concession schemes; and, the second one, in operation since 2003, through new public-private partnership models (PPPs). The objective of this research is to study public-private partnership models used in Mexico for road infrastructure provision, performing the analysis and evaluation of risk’s distribution between the public and the private sector in each model in order to draw up a proposal for risk’s allocation to reduce the total cost and the uncertainty of projects. The first part describes the current state of knowledge in public-private partnership to develop infrastructure projects, including the history, definition and types of PPP models, as well as international practice of programs such as the British Private Finance Initiative (PFI) model, results in the European Union and PPP programs in other countries. Also, it stands out the private sector participation in financing of Mexico’s transport infrastructure in 1990s. The next chapters present the study of public-private partnerships models that have been used in the country in the construction of the high capacity road network. Characteristics and outcomes of the highway program 1989-94 are presented, as well as the financial bailout and restructuring measures of the concession projects, aspects that forced the Mexican authorities to change projects regulations, improve road’s legislation and design new schemes of cooperation between the Government and the private sector. The new PPP models since 2003 are: concession model to develop toll highways, private service contracts model (shadow toll) to modernize existing roads and highway assets model for the concession of toll roads in operation in exchange for a payment. These models were analyzed using case studies in which measures of operational performance (levels of traffic, costs and construction schedules) and financial profitability (internal rate of return and net present value) are determined. In the last part, the analysis and assessment of risks that affect costs, execution time and profitability of the projects are carried out, for both programs. Among the risk factors analyzed, the following ones were found to be the most important: country macroeconomic conditions (inflation, gross domestic product, exchange rate and interest rate), deficiencies in projects planning (design, right of way, tolls, permits and traffic estimation) and public contributions in the form of construction works.

Microstructural and mechanical study of AL2O3/Er3Al5O12 eutectic rods grown by the laser floating zone method

Eutectic rods of Al2O3–Er3Al5O12 were grown by directional solidification using the laser-heated floating zone method at rates in the range 25–1500 mm/h. Their microstructure and mechanical properties (hardness, toughness and strength) were investigated as a function of the growth rate. A homogeneous and interpenetrated microstructure was found in most cases, and interphase spacing decreased with growth rate following the Hunt–Jackson law. Hardness increased slightly as the interphase spacing decreased while toughness was low and independent of the microstructure. The rods presented very high bending strength as a result of the homogeneous microstructure, and their strength increased rapidly as the interphase spacing decreased, reaching a maximum of 2.7 GPa for the rods grown at 750 mm/h. The bending strength remained constant up to 1300 K and decreased above this temperature. The relationship between the microstructure and the mechanical properties was established from the analysis of the microstructure and of the fracture mechanisms

Supersonic regime of the Hall-magnetohydrodynamics resistive tearing instability

An earlier analysis of the Hall-magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) tearing instability [E. Ahedo and J. J. Ramos, Plasma Phys. Controlled Fusion 51, 055018 (2009)] is extended to cover the regime where the growth rate becomes comparable or exceeds the sound frequency. Like in the previous subsonic work, a resistive, two-fluid Hall-MHD model with massless electrons and zero-Larmor-radius ions is adopted and a linear stability analysis about a force-free equilibrium in slab geometry is carried out. A salient feature of this supersonic regime is that the mode eigenfunctions become intrinsically complex, but the growth rate remains purely real. Even more interestingly, the dispersion relation remains of the same form as in the subsonic regime for any value of the instability Mach number, provided only that the ion skin depth is sufficiently small for the mode ion inertial layer width to be smaller than the macroscopic lengths, a generous bound that scales like a positive power of the Lundquist number

Self-similar motion of laser half-space plasmas. I. Deflagration regime

The one-dimensional self-similar motion of an initially cold, half-space plasma of electron density 0,produced by the (anomalous) absorption of a laser pulse of irradiation = (j>0f/T(0< (< T) at the critical density nc(«c/«0=eexchange and retains three dimensionless numbers: e, Zt (ion charge number), and a = (9/c/4m,) (T/C 2n l/4>oKe)213, where k, m, are Boltzmann's constant and the ion mass, and Ke X (electron temperature)5'2 = heat conductivity. If a >e- 4 ' 3 , a deflagration wave separates an isentropic compression with a shock bounding the undisturbed plasma, and an isentropic expansion flow to the vacuum. The structures of these three regions are completely determined; in particular, the Chapman-Jouguet condition is proved and the density behind the deflagration is found. The deflagration-compression thickness ratio is large (small) for a^e- 5 ' 3(a>e- 5 ' 3 ) . The compression to expansion ratio for both energy and thickness is 0(e"2). For Z,- large, a deflagration exists even if a~e~413. Condition a>e~4'3 may be applied to pulses that are not linear.

Emissive Langmuir Probes in the Strong Emission Regime for the Determination of the Plasma Properties

The determination of the plasma potential Vpl of unmagnetized plasmas by using the floating potential of emissive Langmuir probes operated in the strong emission regime is investigated. The experiments evidence that, for most cases, the electron thermionic emission is orders of magnitude larger than the plasma thermal electron current. The temperature-dependent floating potentials of negatively biased Vpmenor queVpl emissive probes are in agreement with the predictions of a simple phenomenological model that considers, in addition to the plasma electrons, an ad-ditional electron group that contributes to the probe current. The latter would be constituted by a fraction of the repelled electron thermionic current, which might return back to the probe with a different energy spectrum. Its origin would be a plasma potential well formed in the plasma sheath around the probe, acting as a virtual cathode or by collisions and electron thermalization pro-cesses. These results suggest that, for probe bias voltages close to the plasma potential Vp?Vpl, two electron populations coexist, i.e., the electrons from the plasma with temperatureTeand a large group of returned thermionic electrons. These results question the theoretical possibility of measuring the electron temperature by using emissive probes biased to potentials Vp about lower equal than ?Vpl.

Analysis of a rate-adaptive reconciliation protocol and the effect of leakage on the secret key rate

Quantum key distribution performs the trick of growing a secret key in two distant places connected by a quantum channel. The main reason is so that the legitimate users can bound the information gathered by the eavesdropper. In practical systems, whether because of finite resources or external conditions, the quantum channel is subject to fluctuations. A rate-adaptive information reconciliation protocol, which adapts to the changes in the communication channel, is then required to minimize the leakage of information in the classical postprocessing. We consider here the leakage of a rate-adaptive information reconciliation protocol. The length of the exchanged messages is larger than that of an optimal protocol; however, we prove that the min-entropy reduction is limited. The simulation results, both in the asymptotic and in the finite-length regime, show that this protocol allows to increase the amount of a distillable secret key.

Mechanical properties up to 1900 K of Al2O3/Er3Al5O12/ZrO2 eutectic ceramics grown by the laser floating zone method

Directionally solidified Al2O3–Er3Al5O12–ZrO2 eutectic rods were processed using the laser floating zone method at growth rates of 25, 350and 750 mm/h to obtain microstructures with different domain size. The mechanical properties were investigated as a function of the processing rate. The hardness, 15.6 GPa, and the fracture toughness, 4 MPa m1/2, obtained from Vickers indentation at room temperature were practically independent of the size of the eutectic phases. However, the flexural strength increased as the domain size decreased, reaching outstanding strength values close to 3 GPa in the samples grown at 750 mm/h. A high retention of the flexural strength was observed up to 1500 K in the materials processed at 25 and 350 mm/h, while superplastic behaviour was observed at 1700 K in the eutectic rods solidified at the highest rate of 750 mm/h