Fighting tax evasion: a cellular automata approach

Estudio de la dinámica de una población donde los individuos son contribuyentes (pagadores de impuestos) o no mediante un autómata celular 2D

Diseño de un modelo de riesgo integral de incendios forestales mediante técnicas multicriterio y su automatización en sistemas de información geográfica : una aplicación en la Comunidad Valenciana

Los incendios forestales son la principal causa de mortalidad de árboles en la Europa mediterránea y constituyen la amenaza más seria para los ecosistemas forestales españoles. En la Comunidad Valenciana, diariamente se despliega cerca de un centenar de vehículos de vigilancia, cuya distribución se apoya, fundamentalmente, en un índice de riesgo de incendios calculado en función de las condiciones meteorológicas. La tesis se centra en el diseño y validación de un nuevo índice de riesgo integrado de incendios, especialmente adaptado a la región mediterránea y que facilite el proceso de toma de decisiones en la distribución diaria de los medios de vigilancia contra incendios forestales. El índice adopta el enfoque de riesgo integrado introducido en la última década y que incluye dos componentes de riesgo: el peligro de ignición y la vulnerabilidad. El primero representa la probabilidad de que se inicie un fuego y el peligro potencial para que se propague, mientras que la vulnerabilidad tiene en cuenta las características del territorio y los efectos potenciales del fuego sobre el mismo. Para el cálculo del peligro potencial se han identificado indicadores relativos a los agentes naturales y humanos causantes de incendios, la ocurrencia histórica y el estado de los combustibles, extremo muy relacionado con la meteorología y las especies. En cuanto a la vulnerabilidad se han empleado indicadores representativos de los efectos potenciales del incendio (comportamiento del fuego, infraestructuras de defensa), como de las características del terreno (valor, capacidad de regeneración…). Todos estos indicadores constituyen una estructura jerárquica en la que, siguiendo las recomendaciones de la Comisión europea para índices de riesgo de incendios, se han incluido indicadores representativos del riesgo a corto plazo y a largo plazo. El cálculo del valor final del índice se ha llevado a cabo mediante la progresiva agregación de los componentes que forman cada uno de los niveles de la estructura jerárquica del índice y su integración final. Puesto que las técnicas de decisión multicriterio están especialmente orientadas a tratar con problemas basados en estructuras jerárquicas, se ha aplicado el método TOPSIS para obtener la integración final del modelo. Se ha introducido en el modelo la opinión de los expertos, mediante la ponderación de cada uno de los componentes del índice. Se ha utilizado el método AHP, para obtener las ponderaciones de cada experto y su integración en un único peso por cada indicador. Para la validación del índice se han empleado los modelos de Ecuaciones de Estimación Generalizadas, que tienen en cuenta posibles respuestas correlacionadas. Para llevarla a cabo se emplearon los datos de oficiales de incendios ocurridos durante el período 1994 al 2003, referenciados a una cuadrícula de 10x10 km empleando la ocurrencia de incendios y su superficie, como variables dependientes. Los resultados de la validación muestran un buen funcionamiento del subíndice de peligro de ocurrencia con un alto grado de correlación entre el subíndice y la ocurrencia, un buen ajuste del modelo logístico y un buen poder discriminante. Por su parte, el subíndice de vulnerabilidad no ha presentado una correlación significativa entre sus valores y la superficie de los incendios, lo que no descarta su validez, ya que algunos de sus componentes tienen un carácter subjetivo, independiente de la superficie incendiada. En general el índice presenta un buen funcionamiento para la distribución de los medios de vigilancia en función del peligro de inicio. No obstante, se identifican y discuten nuevas líneas de investigación que podrían conducir a una mejora del ajuste global del índice. En concreto se plantea la necesidad de estudiar más profundamente la aparente correlación que existe en la provincia de Valencia entre la superficie forestal que ocupa cada cuadrícula de 10 km del territorio y su riesgo de incendios y que parece que a menor superficie forestal, mayor riesgo de incendio. Otros aspectos a investigar son la sensibilidad de los pesos de cada componente o la introducción de factores relativos a los medios potenciales de extinción en el subíndice de vulnerabilidad. Summary Forest fires are the main cause of tree mortality in Mediterranean Europe and the most serious threat to the Spanisf forest. In the Spanish autonomous region of Valencia, forest administration deploys a mobile fleet of 100 surveillance vehicles in forest land whose allocation is based on meteorological index of wildlandfire risk. This thesis is focused on the design and validation of a new Integrated Wildland Fire Risk Index proposed to efficient allocation of vehicles and specially adapted to the Mediterranean conditions. Following the approaches of integrated risk developed last decade, the index includes two risk components: Wildland Fire Danger and Vulnerability. The former represents the probability a fire ignites and the potential hazard of fire propagation or spread danger, while vulnerability accounts for characteristics of the land and potential effects of fire. To calculate the Wildland Fire Danger, indicators of ignition and spread danger have been identified, including human and natural occurrence agents, fuel conditions, historical occurrence and spread rate. Regarding vulnerability se han empleado indicadores representativos de los efectos potenciales del incendio (comportamiento del fuego, infraestructurasd de defensa), como de las características del terreno (valor, capacidad de regeneración…). These indicators make up the hierarchical structure for the index, which, following the criteria of the European Commission both short and long-term indicators have been included. Integration consists of the progressive aggregation of the components that make up every level in risk the index and, after that, the integration of these levels to obtain a unique value for the index. As Munticriteria methods are oriented to deal with hierarchically structured problems and with situations in which conflicting goals prevail, TOPSIS method is used in the integration of components. Multicriteria methods were also used to incorporate expert opinion in weighting of indicators and to carry out the aggregation process into the final index. The Analytic Hierarchy Process method was used to aggregate experts' opinions on each component into a single value. Generalized Estimation Equations, which account for possible correlated responses, were used to validate the index. Historical records of daily occurrence for the period from 1994 to 2003, referred to a 10x10-km-grid cell, as well as the extent of the fires were the dependant variables. The results of validation showed good Wildland Fire Danger component performance, with high correlation degree between Danger and occurrence, a good fit of the logistic model used and a good discrimination power. The vulnerability component has not showed a significant correlation between their values and surface fires, which does not mean the index is not valid, because of the subjective character of some of its components, independent of the surface of the fires. Overall, the index could be used to optimize the preventing resources allocation. Nevertheless, new researching lines are identified and discussed to improve the overall performance of the index. More specifically the need of study the inverse relationship between the value of the wildfire Fire Danger component and the forested surface of each 10 - km cell is set out. Other points to be researched are the sensitivity of the index component´s weight and the possibility of taking into account indicators related to fire fighting resources to make up the vulnerability component.

Including accessibility in higher education curricula for ICT

This paper describes the successful experience carried out by professors of the CETTICO research group of the Technical University of Madrid to incorporate accessibility in the curricula of higher education in ICT in Spain. The paper covers the legal requirements to include accessibility in curricula in Spain, the courses and modules that we have been teaching through the years and the teaching techniques and tools that we have been using.

Optical digital chaos cryptography

In this work we present a new way to mask the data in a one-user communication system when direct sequence - code division multiple access (DS-CDMA) techniques are used. The code is generated by a digital chaotic generator, originally proposed by us and previously reported for a chaos cryptographic system. It is demonstrated that if the user's data signal is encoded with a bipolar phase-shift keying (BPSK) technique, usual in DS-CDMA, it can be easily recovered from a time-frequency domain representation. To avoid this situation, a new system is presented in which a previous dispersive stage is applied to the data signal. A time-frequency domain analysis is performed, and the devices required at the transmitter and receiver end, both user-independent, are presented for the optical domain.

Guidance for the development of accessibility evaluation tools following the Unified Software Development Process

Automated and semi-automated accessibility evaluation tools are key to streamline the process of accessibility assessment, and ultimately ensure that software products, contents, and services meet accessibility requirements. Different evaluation tools may better fit different needs and concerns, accounting for a variety of corporate and external policies, content types, invocation methods, deployment contexts, exploitation models, intended audiences and goals; and the specific overall process where they are introduced. This has led to the proliferation of many evaluation tools tailored to specific contexts. However, tool creators, who may be not familiar with the realm of accessibility and may be part of a larger project, lack any systematic guidance when facing the implementation of accessibility evaluation functionalities. Herein we present a systematic approach to the development of accessibility evaluation tools, leveraging the different artifacts and activities of a standardized development process model (the Unified Software Development Process), and providing templates of these artifacts tailored to accessibility evaluation tools. The work presented specially considers the work in progress in this area by the W3C/WAI Evaluation and Report Working Group (ERT WG)

Mandate M 376: new software accessibility requirements

Software needs to be accessible for persons with disabilities and there are several guidelines to assist developers in building more accessible software. Regulation activities are beginning to make the accessibility of software a mandatory requirement in some countries. One such activity is the European Mandate M 376, which will result in a European standard (EN 301 549) defining functional accessibility requirements for information and communication technology products and services. This paper provides an overview of Mandate M 376 and EN 301 549, and describes the requirements for software accessibility defined in EN 301 549, according to a feature-based approach

Integration of wearable devices in a wireless sensor network for an e-health application

Applications based on Wireless Sensor Networks for Internet of Things scenarios are on the rise. The multiple possibilities they offer have spread towards previously hard to imagine fields, like e-health or human physiological monitoring. An application has been developed for its usage in scenarios where data collection is applied to smart spaces, aiming at its usage in fire fighting and sports. This application has been tested in a gymnasium with real, non-simulated nodes and devices. A Graphic User Interface has been implemented to suggest a series of exercises to improve a sportsman/woman s condition, depending on the context and their profile. This system can be adapted to a wide variety of e-health applications with minimum changes, and the user will interact using different devices, like smart phones, smart watches and/or tablets.

Ventilation and FFFS fire tests for “Calle 30” road tunnels

Between 2003 and 2007 an urban network or road tunnels with a total constructed tubes length of 45 km was built in the city of Madrid. This amazing engineering work, known as "Calle 30 Project" counted with different kinds of tunnel typologies and ventilation systems. Due to the length of the tunnels and the impact of the work itself, the tunnels were endowed with a great variety of installations to provide the maximum levels of safety both for users and the infrastructure includieng, in some parts of the tunnel, fixed fire fighting system based on water mist. Whithin this framework a large-scale programme of fire tests was planned to study different aspects related to fire safety in the tunnels including the phenomena of the interaction between ventilation and extinguishing system. In addition, these large scale fire tests allowed fire brigades of the city of Madrid an opportunity to define operational procedures for specific fire fighting in tunnels and evaluate the possibilities of fixed fire fighting systems. The tests were carried out in the Center of Experimentation "San pedro of Anes" which includes a 600 m tunnel with a removable false ceiling for reproducing different ceiling heights and ventilation conditions (transverse and longitudinal ones). Interesting conclusions on the interaction of ventilation and water mist systems were obtained but also on other aspects including performance of water mist system in terms of reduction of gas temperatures or visibility conditions. This paper presents a description of the test's programme carried out and some previous results obtained.

Large Scale Fire Tests for the “Calle 30 Project"

Between 2003 and 2007 an urban network of road tunnels with a total constructed tubes length of 45 km was built in the city of Madrid. This amazing engineering work, known as “Calle30 Project” counted with different kinds of tunnel typologies and ventilation systems. Due to the length of the tunnels and the impact of the work itself, the tunnels were endowed with a great variety of installations to provide the maximum levels of safety both for users and the infrastructure including,in some parts of the tunnel, fixed fire fighting system based on water mist. Within this framework a large-scale campaign of fire tests were planned to study different aspects related to fire safety in the tunnels including the phenomena of the interaction between ventilation and extinction system. In addition, this large scale fire tests allowed fire brigades of the city of Madrid an opportunity to define operational procedures for specific fire fighting in tunnels and evaluate the possibilities of fixed fire fighting systems. The tests were carried out in the Center of Experimentation "San Pedro of Anes" which counts with a 600 m tunnel with a removable false ceiling for reproducing different ceiling heights and ventilation conditions (transverse and longitudinal ones). Interesting conclusions on the interaction of ventilation and water mist systems were obtained but also on other aspects including performance of water mist system in terms of reduction of gas temperatures or visibility conditions. This paper presents a description of the test’s campaign carried out and some previous results obtained.

Contribución al diseño de lazos de realimentación electrónica para microsistemas electromecánicos (MEMS) resonantes: ruido de fase generado en lazos osciladores por sus realimentaciones

En 1966, D. B. Leeson publicó el artículo titulado “A simple model of feedback oscillator noise spectrum” en el que, mediante una ecuación obtenida de forma heurística y basada en parámetros conocidos de los osciladores, proponía un modelo para estimar el espectro de potencia que cuantifica el Ruido de Fase de estos osciladores. Este Ruido de Fase pone de manifiesto las fluctuaciones aleatorias que se producen en la fase de la señal de salida de cualquier oscilador de frecuencia f_0. Desde entonces, los adelantos tecnológicos han permitido grandes progresos en cuanto a la medida del Ruido de Fase, llegando a encontrar una estrecha “zona plana”, alrededor de f_0, conocida con el nombre de Ensanchamiento de Línea (EL) que Leeson no llegó a observar y que su modelo empírico no recogía. Paralelamente han ido surgiendo teorías que han tratado de explicar el Ruido de Fase con mayor o menor éxito. En esta Tesis se propone una nueva teoría para explicar el espectro de potencia del Ruido de Fase de un oscilador realimentado y basado en resonador L-C (Inductancia-Capacidad). Al igual que otras teorías, la nuestra también relaciona el Ruido de Fase del oscilador con el ruido térmico del circuito que lo implementa pero, a diferencia de aquellas, nuestra teoría se basa en un Modelo Complejo de ruido eléctrico que considera tanto las Fluctuaciones de energía eléctrica asociadas a la susceptancia capacitiva del resonador como las Disipaciones de energía eléctrica asociadas a su inevitable conductancia G=1⁄R, que dan cuenta del contacto térmico entre el resonador y el entorno térmico que le rodea. En concreto, la nueva teoría que proponemos explica tanto la parte del espectro del Ruido de Fase centrada alrededor de la frecuencia portadora f_0 que hemos llamado EL y su posterior caída proporcional a 〖∆f〗^(-2) al alejarnos de f_0, como la zona plana o pedestal que aparece en el espectro de Ruido de Fase lejos de esa f_0. Además, al saber cuantificar el EL y su origen, podemos explicar con facilidad la aparición de zonas del espectro de Ruido de Fase con caída 〖∆f〗^(-3) cercanas a la portadora y que provienen del denominado “exceso de ruido 1⁄f” de dispositivos de Estado Sólido y del ruido “flicker” de espectro 1⁄f^β (0,8≤β≤1,2) que aparece en dispositivos de vacío como las válvulas termoiónicas. Habiendo mostrado que una parte del Ruido de Fase de osciladores L-C realimentados que hemos denominado Ruido de Fase Térmico, se debe al ruido eléctrico de origen térmico de la electrónica que forma ese oscilador, proponemos en esta Tesis una nueva fuente de Ruido de Fase que hemos llamado Ruido de Fase Técnico, que se añadirá al Térmico y que aparecerá cuando el desfase del lazo a la frecuencia de resonancia f_0 del resonador no sea 0° o múltiplo entero de 360° (Condición Barkhausen de Fase, CBF). En estos casos, la modulación aleatoria de ganancia de lazo que realiza el Control Automático de Amplitud en su lucha contra ruidos que traten de variar la amplitud de la señal oscilante del lazo, producirá a su vez una modulación aleatoria de la frecuencia de tal señal que se observará como más Ruido de Fase añadido al Térmico. Para dar una prueba empírica sobre la existencia de esta nueva fuente de Ruido de Fase, se diseñó y construyó un oscilador en torno a un resonador mecánico “grande” para tener un Ruido de Fase Térmico despreciable a efectos prácticos. En este oscilador se midió su Ruido de Fase Técnico tanto en función del valor del desfase añadido al lazo de realimentación para apartarlo de su CBF, como en función de la perturbación de amplitud inyectada para mostrar sin ambigüedad la aparición de este Ruido de Fase Técnico cuando el lazo tiene este fallo técnico: que no cumple la Condición Barkhausen de Fase a la frecuencia de resonancia f_0 del resonador, por lo que oscila a otra frecuencia. ABSTRACT In 1966, D. B. Leeson published the article titled “A simple model of feedback oscillator noise spectrum” in which, by means of an equation obtained heuristically and based on known parameters of the oscillators, a model was proposed to estimate the power spectrum that quantifies the Phase Noise of these oscillators. This Phase Noise reveals the random fluctuations that are produced in the phase of the output signal from any oscillator of frequencyf_0. Since then, technological advances have allowed significant progress regarding the measurement of Phase Noise. This way, the narrow flat region that has been found around f_(0 ), is known as Line Widening (LW). This region that Leeson could not detect at that time does not appear in his empirical model. After Leeson’s work, different theories have appeared trying to explain the Phase Noise of oscillators. This Thesis proposes a new theory that explains the Phase Noise power spectrum of a feedback oscillator around a resonator L-C (Inductance-Capacity). Like other theories, ours also relates the oscillator Phase Noise to the thermal noise of the feedback circuitry, but departing from them, our theory uses a new, Complex Model for electrical noise that considers both Fluctuations of electrical energy associated with the capacitive susceptance of the resonator and Dissipations of electrical energy associated with its unavoidable conductance G=1/R, which accounts for the thermal contact between the resonator and its surrounding environment (thermal bath). More specifically, the new theory we propose explains both the Phase Noise region of the spectrum centered at the carrier frequency f_0 that we have called LW and shows a region falling as 〖∆f〗^(-2) as we depart from f_0, and the flat zone or pedestal that appears in the Phase Noise spectrum far from f_0. Being able to quantify the LW and its origin, we can easily explain the appearance of Phase Noise spectrum zones with 〖∆f〗^(-3) slope near the carrier that come from the so called “1/f excess noise” in Solid-State devices and “flicker noise” with 1⁄f^β (0,8≤β≤1,2) spectrum that appears in vacuum devices such as thermoionic valves. Having shown that the part of the Phase Noise of L-C oscillators that we have called Thermal Phase Noise is due to the electrical noise of the electronics used in the oscillator, this Thesis can propose a new source of Phase Noise that we have called Technical Phase Noise, which will appear when the loop phase shift to the resonance frequency f_0 is not 0° or an integer multiple of 360° (Barkhausen Phase Condition, BPC). This Phase Noise that will add to the Thermal one, comes from the random modulation of the loop gain carried out by the Amplitude Automatic Control fighting against noises trying to change the amplitude of the oscillating signal in the loop. In this case, the BPC failure gives rise to a random modulation of the frequency of the output signal that will be observed as more Phase Noise added to the Thermal one. To give an empirical proof on the existence of this new source of Phase Noise, an oscillator was designed and constructed around a “big” mechanical resonator whose Thermal Phase Noise is negligible for practical effects. The Technical Phase Noise of this oscillator has been measured with regard to the phase lag added to the feedback loop to separate it from its BPC, and with regard to the amplitude disturbance injected to show without ambiguity the appearance of this Technical Phase Noise that appears when the loop has this technical failure: that it does not fulfill the Barkhausen Phase Condition at f_0, the resonance frequency of the resonator and therefore it is oscillating at a frequency other than f_0.

Diseño de nuevas técnicas evolutivas para videojuegos de lucha

El objetivo de esta tesis fin de máster es la construcción mediante técnicas evolutivas de bases de conocimiento con reglas difusas para desarrollar un sistema autónomo que sea capaz de jugar con destreza a un videojuego de lucha en 2D. El uso de la lógica difusa permite manejar imprecisión, la cual está implícita en las variables de entrada al sistema y favorece la comprensión a nivel humano del comportamiento general del controlador. Se ha diseñado, para obtener la base de conocimiento que permita al sistema tomar las decisiones adecuadas durante el combate, un nuevo operador para algoritmos evolutivos. Se ha observado que la programación genética guiada por gramáticas (PGGG) muestra un sesgo debido al cruce que se suele emplear para obtener nuevos individuos en el proceso evolutivo. Para solventar este problema, se propone el método de sedimentación, capaz de evitar la tendencia que tiene la PGGG a generar bases de conocimiento con pocas reglas, de forma independiente a la gramática. Este método se inspira en la sedimentación que se produce en el fondo de los lechos marinos y permite obtener un sustrato de reglas óptimas que forman la solución final una vez que converge el algoritmo.---ABSTRACT---The objective of this thesis is the construction by evolutionary techniques of fuzzy rule-base system to develop an autonomous controller capable of playing a 2D fighting game. The use of fuzzy logic handles imprecision, which is implicit in the input variables of the system and makes the behavior of the controller easier to understand by humans. A new operator for evolutionary algorithms is designed to obtain the knowledge base that allows the system to take appropriate decision during combat. It has been observed that the grammar guided genetic programming (GGGP) shows a bias due to the crossing that is often used for obtaining new individuals in the evolutionary process. To solve this problem, the sedimentation method, able to avoid the tendency of the PGGG to generate knowledge bases with few rules, independently of the grammar is proposed. This method is inspired by the sedimentation that occurs on the bottom of the seabed and creates an optimal rules substrate that ends on the final solution once the algorithm converges.

Autonomous classification models in ubiquitous environments

Stream-mining approach is defined as a set of cutting-edge techniques designed to process streams of data in real time, in order to extract knowledge. In the particular case of classification, stream-mining has to adapt its behaviour to the volatile underlying data distributions, what has been called concept drift. Moreover, it is important to note that concept drift may lead to situations where predictive models become invalid and have therefore to be updated to represent the actual concepts that data poses. In this context, there is a specific type of concept drift, known as recurrent concept drift, where the concepts represented by data have already appeared in the past. In those cases the learning process could be saved or at least minimized by applying a previously trained model. This could be extremely useful in ubiquitous environments that are characterized by the existence of resource constrained devices. To deal with the aforementioned scenario, meta-models can be used in the process of enhancing the drift detection mechanisms used by data stream algorithms, by representing and predicting when the change will occur. There are some real-world situations where a concept reappears, as in the case of intrusion detection systems (IDS), where the same incidents or an adaptation of them usually reappear over time. In these environments the early prediction of drift by means of a better knowledge of past models can help to anticipate to the change, thus improving efficiency of the model regarding the training instances needed. By means of using meta-models as a recurrent drift detection mechanism, the ability to share concepts representations among different data mining processes is open. That kind of exchanges could improve the accuracy of the resultant local model as such model may benefit from patterns similar to the local concept that were observed in other scenarios, but not yet locally. This would also improve the efficiency of training instances used during the classification process, as long as the exchange of models would aid in the application of already trained recurrent models, that have been previously seen by any of the collaborative devices. Which it is to say that the scope of recurrence detection and representation is broaden. In fact the detection, representation and exchange of concept drift patterns would be extremely useful for the law enforcement activities fighting against cyber crime. Being the information exchange one of the main pillars of cooperation, national units would benefit from the experience and knowledge gained by third parties. Moreover, in the specific scope of critical infrastructures protection it is crucial to count with information exchange mechanisms, both from a strategical and technical scope. The exchange of concept drift detection schemes in cyber security environments would aid in the process of preventing, detecting and effectively responding to threads in cyber space. Furthermore, as a complement of meta-models, a mechanism to assess the similarity between classification models is also needed when dealing with recurrent concepts. In this context, when reusing a previously trained model a rough comparison between concepts is usually made, applying boolean logic. The introduction of fuzzy logic comparisons between models could lead to a better efficient reuse of previously seen concepts, by applying not just equal models, but also similar ones. This work faces the aforementioned open issues by means of: the MMPRec system, that integrates a meta-model mechanism and a fuzzy similarity function; a collaborative environment to share meta-models between different devices; a recurrent drift generator that allows to test the usefulness of recurrent drift systems, as it is the case of MMPRec. Moreover, this thesis presents an experimental validation of the proposed contributions using synthetic and real datasets.