PDR with a foot-mounted IMU and ramp detection

The localization of persons in indoor environments is nowadays an open problem. There are partial solutions based on the deployment of a network of sensors (Local Positioning Systems or LPS). Other solutions only require the installation of an inertial sensor on the person’s body (Pedestrian Dead-Reckoning or PDR). PDR solutions integrate the signals coming from an Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU), which usually contains 3 accelerometers and 3 gyroscopes. The main problem of PDR is the accumulation of positioning errors due to the drift caused by the noise in the sensors. This paper presents a PDR solution that incorporates a drift correction method based on detecting the access ramps usually found in buildings. The ramp correction method is implemented over a PDR framework that uses an Inertial Navigation algorithm (INS) and an IMU attached to the person’s foot. Unlike other approaches that use external sensors to correct the drift error, we only use one IMU on the foot. To detect a ramp, the slope of the terrain on which the user is walking, and the change in height sensed when moving forward, are estimated from the IMU. After detection, the ramp is checked for association with one of the existing in a database. For each associated ramp, a position correction is fed into the Kalman Filter in order to refine the INS-PDR solution. Drift-free localization is achieved with positioning errors below 2 meters for 1,000-meter-long routes in a building with a few ramps.

Decelerator elements for ramp transfer points in fruit packing lines

Two different decelerator elements used to reduce impacts on fruits on ramp transfer points in fruit packing lines were designed and tested. The performance of these elements, a powered decelerator and a multiple curtain, was compared to commercial decelerators (blankets). A ramp of length 60 cm was placed at an angle of 30º in an experimental fruit packing line between a roller transporter and a conveyor. The decelerators were placed on top of the ramp. Different tests were carried out to study the performance of the decelerators using instrumented spheres (IS 100) of various sizes. Results showed that decelerators can reduce the impact intensity down to safe thresholds. The powered decelerator was the most effective because it reduced the speed of fruits and did not cause retention of the fruit, when correctly regulated.

Statistical models for short-term wind power ramp forecasting

La predicción de energía eólica ha desempeñado en la última década un papel fundamental en el aprovechamiento de este recurso renovable, ya que permite reducir el impacto que tiene la naturaleza fluctuante del viento en la actividad de diversos agentes implicados en su integración, tales como el operador del sistema o los agentes del mercado eléctrico. Los altos niveles de penetración eólica alcanzados recientemente por algunos países han puesto de manifiesto la necesidad de mejorar las predicciones durante eventos en los que se experimenta una variación importante de la potencia generada por un parque o un conjunto de ellos en un tiempo relativamente corto (del orden de unas pocas horas). Estos eventos, conocidos como rampas, no tienen una única causa, ya que pueden estar motivados por procesos meteorológicos que se dan en muy diferentes escalas espacio-temporales, desde el paso de grandes frentes en la macroescala a procesos convectivos locales como tormentas. Además, el propio proceso de conversión del viento en energía eléctrica juega un papel relevante en la ocurrencia de rampas debido, entre otros factores, a la relación no lineal que impone la curva de potencia del aerogenerador, la desalineación de la máquina con respecto al viento y la interacción aerodinámica entre aerogeneradores. En este trabajo se aborda la aplicación de modelos estadísticos a la predicción de rampas a muy corto plazo. Además, se investiga la relación de este tipo de eventos con procesos atmosféricos en la macroescala. Los modelos se emplean para generar predicciones de punto a partir del modelado estocástico de una serie temporal de potencia generada por un parque eólico. Los horizontes de predicción considerados van de una a seis horas. Como primer paso, se ha elaborado una metodología para caracterizar rampas en series temporales. La denominada función-rampa está basada en la transformada wavelet y proporciona un índice en cada paso temporal. Este índice caracteriza la intensidad de rampa en base a los gradientes de potencia experimentados en un rango determinado de escalas temporales. Se han implementado tres tipos de modelos predictivos de cara a evaluar el papel que juega la complejidad de un modelo en su desempeño: modelos lineales autorregresivos (AR), modelos de coeficientes variables (VCMs) y modelos basado en redes neuronales (ANNs). Los modelos se han entrenado en base a la minimización del error cuadrático medio y la configuración de cada uno de ellos se ha determinado mediante validación cruzada. De cara a analizar la contribución del estado macroescalar de la atmósfera en la predicción de rampas, se ha propuesto una metodología que permite extraer, a partir de las salidas de modelos meteorológicos, información relevante para explicar la ocurrencia de estos eventos. La metodología se basa en el análisis de componentes principales (PCA) para la síntesis de la datos de la atmósfera y en el uso de la información mutua (MI) para estimar la dependencia no lineal entre dos señales. Esta metodología se ha aplicado a datos de reanálisis generados con un modelo de circulación general (GCM) de cara a generar variables exógenas que posteriormente se han introducido en los modelos predictivos. Los casos de estudio considerados corresponden a dos parques eólicos ubicados en España. Los resultados muestran que el modelado de la serie de potencias permitió una mejora notable con respecto al modelo predictivo de referencia (la persistencia) y que al añadir información de la macroescala se obtuvieron mejoras adicionales del mismo orden. Estas mejoras resultaron mayores para el caso de rampas de bajada. Los resultados también indican distintos grados de conexión entre la macroescala y la ocurrencia de rampas en los dos parques considerados. Abstract One of the main drawbacks of wind energy is that it exhibits intermittent generation greatly depending on environmental conditions. Wind power forecasting has proven to be an effective tool for facilitating wind power integration from both the technical and the economical perspective. Indeed, system operators and energy traders benefit from the use of forecasting techniques, because the reduction of the inherent uncertainty of wind power allows them the adoption of optimal decisions. Wind power integration imposes new challenges as higher wind penetration levels are attained. Wind power ramp forecasting is an example of such a recent topic of interest. The term ramp makes reference to a large and rapid variation (1-4 hours) observed in the wind power output of a wind farm or portfolio. Ramp events can be motivated by a broad number of meteorological processes that occur at different time/spatial scales, from the passage of large-scale frontal systems to local processes such as thunderstorms and thermally-driven flows. Ramp events may also be conditioned by features related to the wind-to-power conversion process, such as yaw misalignment, the wind turbine shut-down and the aerodynamic interaction between wind turbines of a wind farm (wake effect). This work is devoted to wind power ramp forecasting, with special focus on the connection between the global scale and ramp events observed at the wind farm level. The framework of this study is the point-forecasting approach. Time series based models were implemented for very short-term prediction, this being characterised by prediction horizons up to six hours ahead. As a first step, a methodology to characterise ramps within a wind power time series was proposed. The so-called ramp function is based on the wavelet transform and it provides a continuous index related to the ramp intensity at each time step. The underlying idea is that ramps are characterised by high power output gradients evaluated under different time scales. A number of state-of-the-art time series based models were considered, namely linear autoregressive (AR) models, varying-coefficient models (VCMs) and artificial neural networks (ANNs). This allowed us to gain insights into how the complexity of the model contributes to the accuracy of the wind power time series modelling. The models were trained in base of a mean squared error criterion and the final set-up of each model was determined through cross-validation techniques. In order to investigate the contribution of the global scale into wind power ramp forecasting, a methodological proposal to identify features in atmospheric raw data that are relevant for explaining wind power ramp events was presented. The proposed methodology is based on two techniques: principal component analysis (PCA) for atmospheric data compression and mutual information (MI) for assessing non-linear dependence between variables. The methodology was applied to reanalysis data generated with a general circulation model (GCM). This allowed for the elaboration of explanatory variables meaningful for ramp forecasting that were utilized as exogenous variables by the forecasting models. The study covered two wind farms located in Spain. All the models outperformed the reference model (the persistence) during both ramp and non-ramp situations. Adding atmospheric information had a noticeable impact on the forecasting performance, specially during ramp-down events. Results also suggested different levels of connection between the ramp occurrence at the wind farm level and the global scale.

Application of noise analysis for sensor surveillance in Trillo NPP

It is a known fact that noise analysis is a suitable method for sensor performance surveillance. In particular, controlling the response time of a sensor is an efficient way to anticipate failures and to have the opportunity to prevent them. In this work the response times of several sensors of Trillo NPP are estimated by means of noise analysis. The procedure applied consists of modeling each sensor with autoregressive methods and getting the searched parameter by analyzing the response of the model when a ramp is simulated as the input signal. Core exit thermocouples and in core self-powered neutron detectors are the main sensors analyzed but other plant sensors are studied as well. Since several measurement campaigns have been carried out, it has been also possible to analyze the evolution of the estimated parameters during more than one fuel cycle. Some sensitivity studies for the sample frequency of the signals and its influence on the response time are also included. Calculations and analysis have been done in the frame of a collaboration agreement between Trillo NPP operator (CNAT) and the School of Mines of Madrid.

A wavelet-based approach for large wind power ramp characterisation

A wavelet-based approach for large wind power ramp characterisation

Effect of uncommon exit location in the emergency evacuation of transport airplanes

The objective of the present paper is to show the effect of uncommon exit arrangement in the evacuation process of narrow-body airliners, from the point of view of emergency evacuation certification, using the ETSIA model. Two main possibilities will be considered: large longitudinal shifting of the main embarking/disembarking doors; and suppression of some over-the-wing exits.

Storage requirements for PV power ramp-rate control

Short-term variability in the power generated by large grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) plants can negatively affect power quality and the network reliability. New grid-codes require combining the PV generator with some form of energy storage technology in order to reduce short-term PV power fluctuation. This paper proposes an effective method in order to calculate, for any PV plant size and maximum allowable ramp-rate, the maximum power and the minimum energy storage requirements alike. The general validity of this method is corroborated with extensive simulation exercises performed with real 5-s one year data of 500 kW inverters at the 38.5 MW Amaraleja (Portugal) PV plant and two other PV plants located in Navarra (Spain), at a distance of more than 660 km from Amaraleja.

Detecting and characterising ramp events in wind power time series

In order to implement accurate models for wind power ramp forecasting, ramps need to be previously characterised. This issue has been typically addressed by performing binary ramp/non-ramp classifications based on ad-hoc assessed thresholds. However, recent works question this approach. This paper presents the ramp function, an innovative wavelet- based tool which detects and characterises ramp events in wind power time series. The underlying idea is to assess a continuous index related to the ramp intensity at each time step, which is obtained by considering large power output gradients evaluated under different time scales (up to typical ramp durations). The ramp function overcomes some of the drawbacks shown by the aforementioned binary classification and permits forecasters to easily reveal specific features of the ramp behaviour observed at a wind farm. As an example, the daily profile of the ramp-up and ramp-down intensities are obtained for the case of a wind farm located in Spain

A review on the recent history of wind power ramp forecasting.

Forecasting large and fast variations of wind power (the so called ramps) helps achieve the integration of large amounts of wind energy. This paper presents a survey on wind power ramp forecasting, reflecting the increasing interest on this topic observed since 2007. Three main aspects were identified from the literature: wind power ramp definition, ramp underlying meteorological causes and experi-ences in predicting ramps. In this framework, we additionally outline a number of recommendations and potential lines of research.

Identifying wind power ramp causes from multivariate datasets: a methodological proposal and its application to reanalysis data.

Forecasting abrupt variations in wind power generation (the so-called ramps) helps achieve large scale wind power integration. One of the main issues to be confronted when addressing wind power ramp forecasting is the way in which relevant information is identified from large datasets to optimally feed forecasting models. To this end, an innovative methodology oriented to systematically relate multivariate datasets to ramp events is presented. The methodology comprises two stages: the identification of relevant features in the data and the assessment of the dependence between these features and ramp occurrence. As a test case, the proposed methodology was employed to explore the relationships between atmospheric dynamics at the global/synoptic scales and ramp events experienced in two wind farms located in Spain. The achieved results suggested different connection degrees between these atmospheric scales and ramp occurrence. For one of the wind farms, it was found that ramp events could be partly explained from regional circulations and zonal pressure gradients. To perform a comprehensive analysis of ramp underlying causes, the proposed methodology could be applied to datasets related to other stages of the wind-topower conversion chain.