Propuestas regulatorias para el diseño de un mercado ibérico a plazo eficiente de la energía = Regulatory proposals for the development of an efficient iberian energy forward market

El mercado ibérico de futuros de energía eléctrica gestionado por OMIP (“Operador do Mercado Ibérico de Energia, Pólo Português”, con sede en Lisboa), también conocido como el mercado ibérico de derivados de energía, comenzó a funcionar el 3 de julio de 2006. Se analiza la eficiencia de este mercado organizado, por lo que se estudia la precisión con la que sus precios de futuros predicen el precio de contado. En dicho mercado coexisten dos modos de negociación: el mercado continuo (modo por defecto) y la contratación mediante subasta. En la negociación en continuo, las órdenes anónimas de compra y de venta interactúan de manera inmediata e individual con órdenes contrarias, dando lugar a operaciones con un número indeterminado de precios para cada contrato. En la negociación a través de subasta, un precio único de equilibrio maximiza el volumen negociado, liquidándose todas las operaciones a ese precio. Adicionalmente, los miembros negociadores de OMIP pueden liquidar operaciones “Over-The-Counter” (OTC) a través de la cámara de compensación de OMIP (OMIClear). Las cinco mayores empresas españolas de distribución de energía eléctrica tenían la obligación de comprar electricidad hasta julio de 2009 en subastas en OMIP, para cubrir parte de sus suministros regulados. De igual manera, el suministrador de último recurso portugués mantuvo tal obligación hasta julio de 2010. Los precios de equilibrio de esas subastas no han resultado óptimos a efectos retributivos de tales suministros regulados dado que dichos precios tienden a situarse ligeramente sesgados al alza. La prima de riesgo ex-post, definida como la diferencia entre los precios a plazo y de contado en el periodo de entrega, se emplea para medir su eficiencia de precio. El mercado de contado, gestionado por OMIE (“Operador de Mercado Ibérico de la Energía”, conocido tradicionalmente como “OMEL”), tiene su sede en Madrid. Durante los dos primeros años del mercado de futuros, la prima de riesgo media tiende a resultar positiva, al igual que en otros mercados europeos de energía eléctrica y gas natural. En ese periodo, la prima de riesgo ex-post tiende a ser negativa en los mercados de petróleo y carbón. Los mercados de energía tienden a mostrar niveles limitados de eficiencia de mercado. La eficiencia de precio del mercado de futuros aumenta con el desarrollo de otros mecanismos coexistentes dentro del mercado ibérico de electricidad (conocido como “MIBEL”) –es decir, el mercado dominante OTC, las subastas de centrales virtuales de generación conocidas en España como Emisiones Primarias de Energía, y las subastas para cubrir parte de los suministros de último recurso conocidas en España como subastas CESUR– y con una mayor integración de los mercados regionales europeos de energía eléctrica. Se construye un modelo de regresión para analizar la evolución de los volúmenes negociados en el mercado continuo durante sus cuatro primeros años como una función de doce indicadores potenciales de liquidez. Los únicos indicadores significativos son los volúmenes negociados en las subastas obligatorias gestionadas por OMIP, los volúmenes negociados en el mercado OTC y los volúmenes OTC compensados por OMIClear. El número de creadores de mercado, la incorporación de agentes financieros y compañías de generación pertenecientes a grupos integrados con suministradores de último recurso, y los volúmenes OTC compensados por OMIClear muestran una fuerte correlación con los volúmenes negociados en el mercado continuo. La liquidez de OMIP está aún lejos de los niveles alcanzados por los mercados europeos más maduros (localizados en los países nórdicos (Nasdaq OMX Commodities) y Alemania (EEX)). El operador de mercado y su cámara de compensación podrían desarrollar acciones eficientes de marketing para atraer nuevos agentes activos en el mercado de contado (p.ej. industrias consumidoras intensivas de energía, suministradores, pequeños productores, compañías energéticas internacionales y empresas de energías renovables) y agentes financieros, captar volúmenes del opaco OTC, y mejorar el funcionamiento de los productos existentes aún no líquidos. Resultaría de gran utilidad para tales acciones un diálogo activo con todos los agentes (participantes en el mercado, operador de mercado de contado, y autoridades supervisoras). Durante sus primeros cinco años y medio, el mercado continuo presenta un crecimento de liquidez estable. Se mide el desempeño de sus funciones de cobertura mediante la ratio de posición neta obtenida al dividir la posición abierta final de un contrato de derivados mensual entre su volumen acumulado en la cámara de compensación. Los futuros carga base muestran la ratio más baja debido a su buena liquidez. Los futuros carga punta muestran una mayor ratio al producirse su menor liquidez a través de contadas subastas fijadas por regulación portuguesa. Las permutas carga base liquidadas en la cámara de compensación ubicada en Madrid –MEFF Power, activa desde el 21 de marzo de 2011– muestran inicialmente valores altos debido a bajos volúmenes registrados, dado que esta cámara se emplea principalmente para vencimientos pequeños (diario y semanal). Dicha ratio puede ser una poderosa herramienta de supervisión para los reguladores energéticos cuando accedan a todas las transacciones de derivados en virtud del Reglamento Europeo sobre Integridad y Transparencia de los Mercados de Energía (“REMIT”), en vigor desde el 28 de diciembre de 2011. La prima de riesgo ex-post tiende a ser positiva en todos los mecanismos (futuros en OMIP, mercado OTC y subastas CESUR) y disminuye debido a la curvas de aprendizaje y al efecto, desde el año 2011, del precio fijo para la retribución de la generación con carbón autóctono. Se realiza una comparativa con los costes a plazo de generación con gas natural (diferencial “clean spark spread”) obtenido como la diferencia entre el precio del futuro eléctrico y el coste a plazo de generación con ciclo combinado internalizando los costes de emisión de CO2. Los futuros eléctricos tienen una elevada correlación con los precios de gas europeos. Los diferenciales de contratos con vencimiento inmediato tienden a ser positivos. Los mayores diferenciales se dan para los contratos mensuales, seguidos de los trimestrales y anuales. Los generadores eléctricos con gas pueden maximizar beneficios con contratos de menor vencimiento. Los informes de monitorización por el operador de mercado que proporcionan transparencia post-operacional, el acceso a datos OTC por el regulador energético, y la valoración del riesgo regulatorio pueden contribuir a ganancias de eficiencia. Estas recomendaciones son también válidas para un potencial mercado ibérico de futuros de gas, una vez que el hub ibérico de gas –actualmente en fase de diseño, con reuniones mensuales de los agentes desde enero de 2013 en el grupo de trabajo liderado por el regulador energético español– esté operativo. El hub ibérico de gas proporcionará transparencia al atraer más agentes y mejorar la competencia, incrementando su eficiencia, dado que en el mercado OTC actual no se revela precio alguno de gas. ABSTRACT The Iberian Power Futures Market, managed by OMIP (“Operador do Mercado Ibérico de Energia, Pólo Português”, located in Lisbon), also known as the Iberian Energy Derivatives Market, started operations on 3 July 2006. The market efficiency, regarding how well the future price predicts the spot price, is analysed for this energy derivatives exchange. There are two trading modes coexisting within OMIP: the continuous market (default mode) and the call auction. In the continuous trading, anonymous buy and sell orders interact immediately and individually with opposite side orders, generating trades with an undetermined number of prices for each contract. In the call auction trading, a single price auction maximizes the traded volume, being all trades settled at the same price (equilibrium price). Additionally, OMIP trading members may settle Over-the-Counter (OTC) trades through OMIP clearing house (OMIClear). The five largest Spanish distribution companies have been obliged to purchase in auctions managed by OMIP until July 2009, in order to partly cover their portfolios of end users’ regulated supplies. Likewise, the Portuguese last resort supplier kept that obligation until July 2010. The auction equilibrium prices are not optimal for remuneration purposes of regulated supplies as such prices seem to be slightly upward biased. The ex-post forward risk premium, defined as the difference between the forward and spot prices in the delivery period, is used to measure its price efficiency. The spot market, managed by OMIE (Market Operator of the Iberian Energy Market, Spanish Pool, known traditionally as “OMEL”), is located in Madrid. During the first two years of the futures market, the average forward risk premium tends to be positive, as it occurs with other European power and natural gas markets. In that period, the ex-post forward risk premium tends to be negative in oil and coal markets. Energy markets tend to show limited levels of market efficiency. The price efficiency of the Iberian Power Futures Market improves with the market development of all the coexistent forward contracting mechanisms within the Iberian Electricity Market (known as “MIBEL”) – namely, the dominant OTC market, the Virtual Power Plant Auctions known in Spain as Energy Primary Emissions, and the auctions catering for part of the last resort supplies known in Spain as CESUR auctions – and with further integration of European Regional Electricity Markets. A regression model tracking the evolution of the traded volumes in the continuous market during its first four years is built as a function of twelve potential liquidity drivers. The only significant drivers are the traded volumes in OMIP compulsory auctions, the traded volumes in the OTC market, and the OTC cleared volumes by OMIClear. The amount of market makers, the enrolment of financial members and generation companies belonging to the integrated group of last resort suppliers, and the OTC cleared volume by OMIClear show strong correlation with the traded volumes in the continuous market. OMIP liquidity is still far from the levels reached by the most mature European markets (located in the Nordic countries (Nasdaq OMX Commodities) and Germany (EEX)). The market operator and its clearing house could develop efficient marketing actions to attract new entrants active in the spot market (e.g. energy intensive industries, suppliers, small producers, international energy companies and renewable generation companies) and financial agents as well as volumes from the opaque OTC market, and to improve the performance of existing illiquid products. An active dialogue with all the stakeholders (market participants, spot market operator, and supervisory authorities) will help to implement such actions. During its firs five and a half years, the continuous market shows steady liquidity growth. The hedging performance is measured through a net position ratio obtained from the final open interest of a month derivatives contract divided by its accumulated cleared volume. The base load futures in the Iberian energy derivatives exchange show the lowest ratios due to good liquidity. The peak futures show bigger ratios as their reduced liquidity is produced by auctions fixed by Portuguese regulation. The base load swaps settled in the clearing house located in Spain – MEFF Power, operating since 21 March 2011, with a new denomination (BME Clearing) since 9 September 2013 – show initially large values due to low registered volumes, as this clearing house is mainly used for short maturity (daily and weekly swaps). The net position ratio can be a powerful oversight tool for energy regulators when accessing to all the derivatives transactions as envisaged by European regulation on Energy Market Integrity and Transparency (“REMIT”), in force since 28 December 2011. The ex-post forward risk premium tends to be positive in all existing mechanisms (OMIP futures, OTC market and CESUR auctions) and diminishes due to the learning curve and the effect – since year 2011 – of the fixed price retributing the indigenous coal fired generation. Comparison with the forward generation costs from natural gas (“clean spark spread”) – obtained as the difference between the power futures price and the forward generation cost with a gas fired combined cycle plant taking into account the CO2 emission rates – is also performed. The power futures are strongly correlated with European gas prices. The clean spark spreads built with prompt contracts tend to be positive. The biggest clean spark spreads are for the month contract, followed by the quarter contract and then by the year contract. Therefore, gas fired generation companies can maximize profits trading with contracts of shorter maturity. Market monitoring reports by the market operator providing post-trade transparency, OTC data access by the energy regulator, and assessment of the regulatory risk can contribute to efficiency gains. The same recommendations are also valid for a potential Iberian gas futures market, once an Iberian gas hub – currently in a design phase, with monthly meetings amongst the stakeholders in a Working Group led by the Spanish energy regulatory authority since January 2013 – is operating. The Iberian gas hub would bring transparency attracting more shippers and improving competition and thus its efficiency, as no gas price is currently disclosed in the existing OTC market.

Analysis of frame-compatible subsampling structures for efficient 3DTV broadcast

The evolution of the television market is led by 3DTV technology, and this tendency can accelerate during the next years according to expert forecasts. However, 3DTV delivery by broadcast networks is not currently developed enough, and acts as a bottleneck for the complete deployment of the technology. Thus, increasing interest is dedicated to ste-reo 3DTV formats compatible with current HDTV video equipment and infrastructure, as they may greatly encourage 3D acceptance. In this paper, different subsampling schemes for HDTV compatible transmission of both progressive and interlaced stereo 3DTV are studied and compared. The frequency characteristics and preserved frequency content of each scheme are analyzed, and a simple interpolation filter is specially designed. Finally, the advantages and disadvantages of the different schemes and filters are evaluated through quality testing on several progressive and interlaced video sequences.

Efficient local unfolding with ancestor stacks

The most successful unfolding rules used nowadays in the partial evaluation of logic programs are based on well quasi orders (wqo) applied over (covering) ancestors, i.e., a subsequence of the atoms selected during a derivation. Ancestor (sub)sequences are used to increase the specialization power of unfolding while still guaranteeing termination and also to reduce the number of atoms for which the wqo has to be checked. Unfortunately, maintaining the structure of the ancestor relation during unfolding introduces significant overhead. We propose an efficient, practical local unfolding rule based on the notion of covering ancestors which can be used in combination with a wqo and allows a stack-based implementation without losing any opportunities for specialization. Using our technique, certain non-leftmost unfoldings are allowed as long as local unfolding is performed, i.e., we cover depth-first strategies. To deal with practical programs, we propose assertion-based techniques which allow our approach to treat programs that include (Prolog) built-ins and external predicates in a very extensible manner, for the case of leftmost unfolding. Finally, we report on our mplementation of these techniques embedded in a practical partial evaluator, which shows that our techniques, in addition to dealing with practical programs, are also significantly more efficient in time and somewhat more efficient in memory than traditional tree-based implementations. To appear in Theory and Practice of Logic Programming (TPLP).

The human side of social technology for climate change mitigation and human development: the case of "efficient stoves" in Brazil

Carbon management has gradually gained attention within the overall environmental management and corporate social responsibility agendas. The clean development mechanism, from Kyoto Protocol, was envisioned as connecting carbon market and sustainable development objectives in developing countries. Previous research has shown that this potential is rarely being achieved. The paper explores how the incorporation of the human side into carbon management reinforces its contribution to generate human development in local communities and to improve the company's image. A case study of a Brazilian company is presented, with the results of the application of an analytical model that incorporates the human side and human development. The selected project is an "efficient stoves" programme. "Efficient stoves" are recognised in Brazil as social technologies. Results suggest that the fact that social technologies value the human side of the technology plays a key role when it comes to analysing the co-benefits of the project implementation.

The first renewable forward market mechanisms in the Iberian Electricity Market

A description of the first renewable forward market mechanisms in the Iberian Electricity Market is provided. A contract for difference mechanism is available in Spain since March 2011between the last resort suppliers and the special regime (renewables and cogeneration) settling the price differences between the equilibrium price of the forward regulated auctions for the last resort supply and the spot price of the corresponding delivery period. Regulated auctions of baseload futures of the Portuguese zone in which the Portuguese last resort supplier sells the special regime production exist since December 2011. The experience gained from renewables auctions in Latin America could be used in the Iberian Electricity market, complementing these first market mechanisms. Introduction of renewable auctions at least for the most mature technologies (i.e. wind) in Spain and Portugal providing a fair price for the renewable generation will be of utmost importance in the short term to diminish the tariff deficit caused by the massive deployment of the feed-in-tariff scheme. Liquidity in the forward markets will also increase as a result of the entry of renewable generation companies intending to maximize their profits due to gradual suppression of feed in tariff schemes.

Efficient algorithms for dynamic probabilistic safety assessment. An application to convex damage domain.

The design of nuclear power plant has to follow a number of regulations aimed at limiting the risks inherent in this type of installation. The goal is to prevent and to limit the consequences of any possible incident that might threaten the public or the environment. To verify that the safety requirements are met a safety assessment process is followed. Safety analysis is as key component of a safety assessment, which incorporates both probabilistic and deterministic approaches. The deterministic approach attempts to ensure that the various situations, and in particular accidents, that are considered to be plausible, have been taken into account, and that the monitoring systems and engineered safety and safeguard systems will be capable of ensuring the safety goals. On the other hand, probabilistic safety analysis tries to demonstrate that the safety requirements are met for potential accidents both within and beyond the design basis, thus identifying vulnerabilities not necessarily accessible through deterministic safety analysis alone. Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) methodology is widely used in the nuclear industry and is especially effective in comprehensive assessment of the measures needed to prevent accidents with small probability but severe consequences. Still, the trend towards a risk informed regulation (RIR) demanded a more extended use of risk assessment techniques with a significant need to further extend PSA’s scope and quality. Here is where the theory of stimulated dynamics (TSD) intervenes, as it is the mathematical foundation of the integrated safety assessment (ISA) methodology developed by the CSN(Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear) branch of Modelling and Simulation (MOSI). Such methodology attempts to extend classical PSA including accident dynamic analysis, an assessment of the damage associated to the transients and a computation of the damage frequency. The application of this ISA methodology requires a computational framework called SCAIS (Simulation Code System for Integrated Safety Assessment). SCAIS provides accident dynamic analysis support through simulation of nuclear accident sequences and operating procedures. Furthermore, it includes probabilistic quantification of fault trees and sequences; and integration and statistic treatment of risk metrics. SCAIS comprehensively implies an intensive use of code coupling techniques to join typical thermal hydraulic analysis, severe accident and probability calculation codes. The integration of accident simulation in the risk assessment process and thus requiring the use of complex nuclear plant models is what makes it so powerful, yet at the cost of an enormous increase in complexity. As the complexity of the process is primarily focused on such accident simulation codes, the question of whether it is possible to reduce the number of required simulation arises, which will be the focus of the present work. This document presents the work done on the investigation of more efficient techniques applied to the process of risk assessment inside the mentioned ISA methodology. Therefore such techniques will have the primary goal of decreasing the number of simulation needed for an adequate estimation of the damage probability. As the methodology and tools are relatively recent, there is not much work done inside this line of investigation, making it a quite difficult but necessary task, and because of time limitations the scope of the work had to be reduced. Therefore, some assumptions were made to work in simplified scenarios best suited for an initial approximation to the problem. The following section tries to explain in detail the process followed to design and test the developed techniques. Then, the next section introduces the general concepts and formulae of the TSD theory which are at the core of the risk assessment process. Afterwards a description of the simulation framework requirements and design is given. Followed by an introduction to the developed techniques, giving full detail of its mathematical background and its procedures. Later, the test case used is described and result from the application of the techniques is shown. Finally the conclusions are presented and future lines of work are exposed.

Analysis of the traded volume drivers of the Iberian power futures market

A comprehensive assessment of the liquidity development in the Iberian power futures market managed by OMIP (“Operador do Mercado Ibérico de Energia, Pólo Português”) in its first 4 years of existence is performed. This market started on July 2006. A regression model tracking the evolution of the traded volumes in the continuous market is built as a function of 12 potential liquidity drivers. The only significant drivers are the traded volumes in OMIP compulsory auctions, the traded volumes in the “Over The Counter” (OTC) market, and the OTC cleared volumes in OMIP clearing house (OMIClear). Furthermore, the enrollment of financial members shows strong correlation with the traded volumes in the continuous market. OMIP liquidity is still far from the levels reached by the most mature European markets (Nord Pool and EEX). The market operator and its clearing house could develop efficient marketing actions to attract new entrants active in the spot market (energy intensive industries, suppliers, and small producers) as well as volumes from the opaque OTC market, and to improve the performance of existing illiquid products. An active dialogue with all the stakeholders (market participants, spot market operator, and supervisory authorities) will help to implement such actions.

Mixed models for short-run forecasting of electricity prices: Application for the Spanish market

Short-run forecasting of electricity prices has become necessary for power generation unit schedule, since it is the basis of every profit maximization strategy. In this article a new and very easy method to compute accurate forecasts for electricity prices using mixed models is proposed. The main idea is to develop an efficient tool for one-step-ahead forecasting in the future, combining several prediction methods for which forecasting performance has been checked and compared for a span of several years. Also as a novelty, the 24 hourly time series has been modelled separately, instead of the complete time series of the prices. This allows one to take advantage of the homogeneity of these 24 time series. The purpose of this paper is to select the model that leads to smaller prediction errors and to obtain the appropriate length of time to use for forecasting. These results have been obtained by means of a computational experiment. A mixed model which combines the advantages of the two new models discussed is proposed. Some numerical results for the Spanish market are shown, but this new methodology can be applied to other electricity markets as well

Contributions to trajectory prediction theory and its application to arrival management for air traffic control

La gestión del tráfico aéreo (Air Traffic Management, ATM) está experimentando un cambio de paradigma hacia las denominadas operaciones basadas trayectoria. Bajo dicho paradigma se modifica el papel de los controladores de tráfico aéreo desde una operativa basada su intervención táctica continuada hacia una labor de supervisión a más largo plazo. Esto se apoya en la creciente confianza en las soluciones aportadas por las herramientas automatizadas de soporte a la decisión más modernas. Para dar soporte a este concepto, se precisa una importante inversión para el desarrollo, junto con la adquisición de nuevos equipos en tierra y embarcados, que permitan la sincronización precisa de la visión de la trayectoria, basada en el intercambio de información entre ambos actores. Durante los últimos 30 a 40 años las aerolíneas han generado uno de los menores retornos de la inversión de entre todas las industrias. Sin beneficios tangibles, la industria aérea tiene dificultades para atraer el capital requerido para su modernización, lo que retrasa la implantación de dichas mejoras. Esta tesis tiene como objetivo responder a la pregunta de si las capacidades actualmente instaladas en las aeronaves comerciales se pueden aplicar para lograr la sincronización de la trayectoria con el nivel de calidad requerido. Además, se analiza en ella si, conjuntamente con mejoras en las herramientas de predicción trayectorias instaladas en tierra en para facilitar la gestión de las arribadas, dichas capacidades permiten obtener los beneficios esperados en el marco de las operaciones basadas en trayectoria. Esto podría proporcionar un incentivo para futuras actualizaciones de la aviónica que podrían llevar a mejoras adicionales. El concepto operacional propuesto en esta tesis tiene como objetivo permitir que los aviones sean pilotados de una manera consistente con las técnicas actuales de vuelo optimizado. Se permite a las aeronaves que desciendan en el denominado “modo de ángulo de descenso gestionado” (path-managed mode), que es el preferido por la mayoría de las compañías aéreas, debido a que conlleva un reducido consumo de combustible. El problema de este modo es que en él no se controla de forma activa el tiempo de llegada al punto de interés. En nuestro concepto operacional, la incertidumbre temporal se gestiona en mediante de la medición del tiempo en puntos estratégicamente escogidos a lo largo de la trayectoria de la aeronave, y permitiendo la modificación por el control de tierra de la velocidad de la aeronave. Aunque la base del concepto es la gestión de las ordenes de velocidad que se proporcionan al piloto, para ser capaces de operar con los niveles de equipamiento típicos actualmente, dicho concepto también constituye un marco en el que la aviónica más avanzada (por ejemplo, que permita el control por el FMS del tiempo de llegada) puede integrarse de forma natural, una vez que esta tecnología este instalada. Además de gestionar la incertidumbre temporal a través de la medición en múltiples puntos, se intenta reducir dicha incertidumbre al mínimo mediante la mejora de las herramienta de predicción de la trayectoria en tierra. En esta tesis se presenta una novedosa descomposición del proceso de predicción de trayectorias en dos etapas. Dicha descomposición permite integrar adecuadamente los datos de la trayectoria de referencia calculada por el Flight Management System (FMS), disponibles usando Futuro Sistema de Navegación Aérea (FANS), en el sistema de predicción de trayectorias en tierra. FANS es un equipo presente en los aviones comerciales de fuselaje ancho actualmente en la producción, e incluso algunos aviones de fuselaje estrecho pueden tener instalada avionica FANS. Además de informar automáticamente de la posición de la aeronave, FANS permite proporcionar (parte de) la trayectoria de referencia en poder de los FMS, pero la explotación de esta capacidad para la mejora de la predicción de trayectorias no se ha estudiado en profundidad en el pasado. La predicción en dos etapas proporciona una solución adecuada al problema de sincronización de trayectorias aire-tierra dado que permite la sincronización de las dimensiones controladas por el sistema de guiado utilizando la información de la trayectoria de referencia proporcionada mediante FANS, y también facilita la mejora en la predicción de las dimensiones abiertas restantes usado un modelo del guiado que explota los modelos meteorológicos mejorados disponibles en tierra. Este proceso de predicción de la trayectoria de dos etapas se aplicó a una muestra de 438 vuelos reales que realizaron un descenso continuo (sin intervención del controlador) con destino Melbourne. Dichos vuelos son de aeronaves del modelo Boeing 737-800, si bien la metodología descrita es extrapolable a otros tipos de aeronave. El método propuesto de predicción de trayectorias permite una mejora en la desviación estándar del error de la estimación del tiempo de llegada al punto de interés, que es un 30% menor que la que obtiene el FMS. Dicha trayectoria prevista mejorada se puede utilizar para establecer la secuencia de arribadas y para la asignación de las franjas horarias para cada aterrizaje (slots). Sobre la base del slot asignado, se determina un perfil de velocidades que permita cumplir con dicho slot con un impacto mínimo en la eficiencia del vuelo. En la tesis se propone un nuevo algoritmo que determina las velocidades requeridas sin necesidad de un proceso iterativo de búsqueda sobre el sistema de predicción de trayectorias. El algoritmo se basa en una parametrización inteligente del proceso de predicción de la trayectoria, que permite relacionar el tiempo estimado de llegada con una función polinómica. Resolviendo dicho polinomio para el tiempo de llegada deseado, se obtiene de forma natural el perfil de velocidades optimo para cumplir con dicho tiempo de llegada sin comprometer la eficiencia. El diseño de los sistemas de gestión de arribadas propuesto en esta tesis aprovecha la aviónica y los sistemas de comunicación instalados de un modo mucho más eficiente, proporcionando valor añadido para la industria. Por tanto, la solución es compatible con la transición hacia los sistemas de aviónica avanzados que están desarrollándose actualmente. Los beneficios que se obtengan a lo largo de dicha transición son un incentivo para inversiones subsiguientes en la aviónica y en los sistemas de control de tráfico en tierra. ABSTRACT Air traffic management (ATM) is undergoing a paradigm shift towards trajectory based operations where the role of an air traffic controller evolves from that of continuous intervention towards supervision, as decision making is improved based on increased confidence in the solutions provided by advanced automation. To support this concept, significant investment for the development and acquisition of new equipment is required on the ground as well as in the air, to facilitate the high degree of trajectory synchronisation and information exchange required. Over the past 30-40 years the airline industry has generated one of the lowest returns on invested capital among all industries. Without tangible benefits realised, the airline industry may find it difficult to attract the required investment capital and delay acquiring equipment needed to realise the concept of trajectory based operations. In response to these challenges facing the modernisation of ATM, this thesis aims to answer the question whether existing aircraft capabilities can be applied to achieve sufficient trajectory synchronisation and improvements to ground-based trajectory prediction in support of the arrival management process, to realise some of the benefits envisioned under trajectory based operations, and to provide an incentive for further avionics upgrades. The proposed operational concept aims to permit aircraft to operate in a manner consistent with current optimal aircraft operating techniques. It allows aircraft to descend in the fuel efficient path managed mode as preferred by a majority of airlines, with arrival time not actively controlled by the airborne automation. The temporal uncertainty is managed through metering at strategically chosen points along the aircraft’s trajectory with primary use of speed advisories. While the focus is on speed advisories to support all aircraft and different levels of equipage, the concept also constitutes a framework in which advanced avionics as airborne time-of-arrival control can be integrated once this technology is widely available. In addition to managing temporal uncertainty through metering at multiple points, this temporal uncertainty is minimised by improving the supporting trajectory prediction capability. A novel two-stage trajectory prediction process is presented to adequately integrate aircraft trajectory data available through Future Air Navigation Systems (FANS) into the ground-based trajectory predictor. FANS is standard equipment on any wide-body aircraft in production today, and some single-aisle aircraft are easily capable of being fitted with FANS. In addition to automatic position reporting, FANS provides the ability to provide (part of) the reference trajectory held by the aircraft’s Flight Management System (FMS), but this capability has yet been widely overlooked. The two-stage process provides a ‘best of both world’s’ solution to the air-ground synchronisation problem by synchronising with the FMS reference trajectory those dimensions controlled by the guidance mode, and improving on the prediction of the remaining open dimensions by exploiting the high resolution meteorological forecast available to a ground-based system. The two-stage trajectory prediction process was applied to a sample of 438 FANS-equipped Boeing 737-800 flights into Melbourne conducting a continuous descent free from ATC intervention, and can be extrapolated to other types of aircraft. Trajectories predicted through the two-stage approach provided estimated time of arrivals with a 30% reduction in standard deviation of the error compared to estimated time of arrival calculated by the FMS. This improved predicted trajectory can subsequently be used to set the sequence and allocate landing slots. Based on the allocated landing slot, the proposed system calculates a speed schedule for the aircraft to meet this landing slot at minimal flight efficiency impact. A novel algorithm is presented that determines this speed schedule without requiring an iterative process in which multiple calls to a trajectory predictor need to be made. The algorithm is based on parameterisation of the trajectory prediction process, allowing the estimate time of arrival to be represented by a polynomial function of the speed schedule, providing an analytical solution to the speed schedule required to meet a set arrival time. The arrival management solution proposed in this thesis leverages the use of existing avionics and communications systems resulting in new value for industry for current investment. The solution therefore supports a transition concept from mixed equipage towards advanced avionics currently under development. Benefits realised under this transition may provide an incentive for ongoing investment in avionics.

Implementation of the Heated Pulsed Theory using actively heated fiber optics: measurements of soil volumetric water content and soil volumetric heat capacity

Existe una creciente necesidad de hacer el mejor uso del agua para regadío. Una alternativa eficiente consiste en la monitorización del contenido volumétrico de agua (θ), utilizando sensores de humedad. A pesar de existir una gran diversidad de sensores y tecnologías disponibles, actualmente ninguna de ellas permite obtener medidas distribuidas en perfiles verticales de un metro y en escalas laterales de 0.1-1,000 m. En este sentido, es necesario buscar tecnologías alternativas que sirvan de puente entre las medidas puntuales y las escalas intermedias. Esta tesis doctoral se basa en el uso de Fibra Óptica (FO) con sistema de medida de temperatura distribuida (DTS), una tecnología alternativa de reciente creación que ha levantado gran expectación en las últimas dos décadas. Específicamente utilizamos el método de fibra calentada, en inglés Actively Heated Fiber Optic (AHFO), en la cual los cables de Fibra Óptica se utilizan como sondas de calor mediante la aplicación de corriente eléctrica a través de la camisa de acero inoxidable, o de un conductor eléctrico simétricamente posicionado, envuelto, alrededor del haz de fibra óptica. El uso de fibra calentada se basa en la utilización de la teoría de los pulsos de calor, en inglés Heated Pulsed Theory (HPP), por la cual el conductor se aproxima a una fuente de calor lineal e infinitesimal que introduce calor en el suelo. Mediante el análisis del tiempo de ocurrencia y magnitud de la respuesta térmica ante un pulso de calor, es posible estimar algunas propiedades específicas del suelo, tales como el contenido de humedad, calor específico (C) y conductividad térmica. Estos parámetros pueden ser estimados utilizando un sensor de temperatura adyacente a la sonda de calor [método simple, en inglés single heated pulsed probes (SHPP)], ó a una distancia radial r [método doble, en inglés dual heated pulsed probes (DHPP)]. Esta tesis doctoral pretende probar la idoneidad de los sistemas de fibra óptica calentada para la aplicación de la teoría clásica de sondas calentadas. Para ello, se desarrollarán dos sistemas FO-DTS. El primero se sitúa en un campo agrícola de La Nava de Arévalo (Ávila, España), en el cual se aplica la teoría SHPP para estimar θ. El segundo sistema se desarrolla en laboratorio y emplea la teoría DHPP para medir tanto θ como C. La teoría SHPP puede ser implementada con fibra óptica calentada para obtener medidas distribuidas de θ, mediante la utilización de sistemas FO-DTS y el uso de curvas de calibración específicas para cada suelo. Sin embargo, la mayoría de aplicaciones AHFO se han desarrollado exclusivamente en laboratorio utilizando medios porosos homogéneos. En esta tesis se utiliza el programa Hydrus 2D/3D para definir tales curvas de calibración. El modelo propuesto es validado en un segmento de cable enterrado en una instalación de fibra óptica y es capaz de predecir la respuesta térmica del suelo en puntos concretos de la instalación una vez que las propiedades físicas y térmicas de éste son definidas. La exactitud de la metodología para predecir θ frente a medidas puntuales tomadas con sensores de humedad comerciales fue de 0.001 a 0.022 m3 m-3 La implementación de la teoría DHPP con AHFO para medir C y θ suponen una oportunidad sin precedentes para aplicaciones medioambientales. En esta tesis se emplean diferentes combinaciones de cables y fuentes emisoras de calor, que se colocan en paralelo y utilizan un rango variado de espaciamientos, todo ello en el laboratorio. La amplitud de la señal y el tiempo de llegada se han observado como funciones del calor específico del suelo. Medidas de C, utilizando esta metodología y ante un rango variado de contenidos de humedad, sugirieron la idoneidad del método, aunque también se observaron importantes errores en contenidos bajos de humedad de hasta un 22%. La mejora del método requerirá otros modelos más precisos que tengan en cuenta el diámetro del cable, así como la posible influencia térmica del mismo. ABSTRACT There is an increasing need to make the most efficient use of water for irrigation. A good approach to make irrigation as efficient as possible is to monitor soil water content (θ) using soil moisture sensors. Although, there is a broad range of different sensors and technologies, currently, none of them can practically and accurately provide vertical and lateral moisture profiles spanning 0-1 m depth and 0.1-1,000 m lateral scales. In this regard, further research to fulfill the intermediate scale and to bridge single-point measurement with the broaden scales is still needed. This dissertation is based on the use of Fiber Optics with Distributed Temperature Sensing (FO-DTS), a novel approach which has been receiving growing interest in the last two decades. Specifically, we employ the so called Actively Heated Fiber Optic (AHFO) method, in which FO cables are employed as heat probe conductors by applying electricity to the stainless steel armoring jacket or an added conductor symmetrically positioned (wrapped) about the FO cable. AHFO is based on the classic Heated Pulsed Theory (HPP) which usually employs a heat probe conductor that approximates to an infinite line heat source which injects heat into the soil. Observation of the timing and magnitude of the thermal response to the energy input provide enough information to derive certain specific soil thermal characteristics such as the soil heat capacity, soil thermal conductivity or soil water content. These parameters can be estimated by capturing the soil thermal response (using a thermal sensor) adjacent to the heat source (the heating and the thermal sources are mounted together in the so called single heated pulsed probe (SHPP)), or separated at a certain distance, r (dual heated pulsed method (DHPP) This dissertation aims to test the feasibility of heated fiber optics to implement the HPP theory. Specifically, we focus on measuring soil water content (θ) and soil heat capacity (C) by employing two types of FO-DTS systems. The first one is located in an agricultural field in La Nava de Arévalo (Ávila, Spain) and employ the SHPP theory to estimate θ. The second one is developed in the laboratory using the procedures described in the DHPP theory, and focuses on estimating both C and θ. The SHPP theory can be implemented with actively heated fiber optics (AHFO) to obtain distributed measurements of soil water content (θ) by using reported soil thermal responses in Distributed Temperature Sensing (DTS) and with a soil-specific calibration relationship. However, most reported AHFO applications have been calibrated under laboratory homogeneous soil conditions, while inexpensive efficient calibration procedures useful in heterogeneous soils are lacking. In this PhD thesis, we employ the Hydrus 2D/3D code to define these soil-specific calibration curves. The model is then validated at a selected FO transect of the DTS installation. The model was able to predict the soil thermal response at specific locations of the fiber optic cable once the surrounding soil hydraulic and thermal properties were known. Results using electromagnetic moisture sensors at the same specific locations demonstrate the feasibility of the model to detect θ within an accuracy of 0.001 to 0.022 m3 m-3. Implementation of the Dual Heated Pulsed Probe (DPHP) theory for measurement of volumetric heat capacity (C) and water content (θ) with Distributed Temperature Sensing (DTS) heated fiber optic (FO) systems presents an unprecedented opportunity for environmental monitoring. We test the method using different combinations of FO cables and heat sources at a range of spacings in a laboratory setting. The amplitude and phase-shift in the heat signal with distance was found to be a function of the soil volumetric heat capacity (referred, here, to as Cs). Estimations of Cs at a range of θ suggest feasibility via responsiveness to the changes in θ (we observed a linear relationship in all FO combinations), though observed bias with decreasing soil water contents (up to 22%) was also reported. Optimization will require further models to account for the finite radius and thermal influence of the FO cables, employed here as “needle probes”. Also, consideration of the range of soil conditions and cable spacing and jacket configurations, suggested here to be valuable subjects of further study and development.

Initial design with L2 Monge-Kantorovich theory for the Monge–Ampère equation method of freeform optics

The Monge–Ampère (MA) equation arising in illumination design is highly nonlinear so that the convergence of the MA method is strongly determined by the initial design. We address the initial design of the MA method in this paper with the L2 Monge-Kantorovich (LMK) theory, and introduce an efficient approach for finding the optimal mapping of the LMK problem. Three examples, including the beam shaping of collimated beam and point light source, are given to illustrate the potential benefits of the LMK theory in the initial design. The results show the MA method converges more stably and faster with the application of the LMK theory in the initial design.

Return of Equity Issues in the Spanish Stock Market from the Investor’s Perspective, during the 1997-2012 Period

Is it profitable for an investor, from a risk-return perspective, to acquire a stake in a quoted company when a capital increase is announced? This paper analyses the return obtained from the investment in equity issues with cash contribution and pre-emptive rights, aimed at funding corporate activities: acquisitions, investments in new facilities and/or strengthening the balance sheet of the companies undertaking the equity issue. During the 16 years covered by the study, the results show a negative average excess risk-adjusted return of almost 5%, from the moment that the equity offer is announced until the completion of the preferential subscription period. To obtain this excess return, the difference between the nominal Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and the expected return, using the CAPM, is computed for each equity issue. The intention behind this method is to eliminate the effects of time and any other possible effect on the stock price during the period of the analysis.The results from this article are consistent with the Pecking Order theory for the Spanish Stock Market also six months after the preferential subscription period. However, there is a positive return after three months.

Factors impacting the market share of Construction and Demolition (C&D) Waste recycling solutions

Current EU Directives force the Member States to assure by 2020 that 70% of the Construction and Demolition (C&D) waste is recovered instead of landfilled. While some countries have largely achieved this target, others still have a long way to go. For better understanding the differences arising from local disparities, six factors related to technical, economic, legislative and environmental aspects have been identified as crucial influences in the market share of C&D waste recycling solutions. These factors are able to identify the causes that limit the recycling rate of a certain region. Moreover, progress towards an efficient waste management can vary through the improvement of a single factor. This study provides the background for further fine-tuning the factors and their combination into a mathematical model for assessing the market share of C&D recycling solutions.

Analysis of SnS2 hyperdoped with V proposed as efficient absorber material

Intermediate-band materials can improve the photovoltaic efficiency of solar cells through the absorption of two subband-gap photons that allow extra electron-hole pair formations. Previous theoretical and experimental findings support the proposal that the layered SnS2 compound, with a band-gap of around 2 eV, is a candidate for an intermediate-band material when it is doped with a specific transition-metal. In this work we characterize vanadium doped SnS2 using density functional theory at the dilution level experimentally found and including a dispersion correction combined with the site-occupancy-disorder method. In order to analyze the electronic characteristics that depend on geometry, two SnS2 polytypes partially substituted with vanadium in symmetry-adapted non-equivalent configurations were studied. In addition the magnetic configurations of vanadium in a SnS2 2H-polytype and its comparison with a 4H-polytype were also characterized. We demonstrate that a narrow intermediate-band is formed, when these dopant atoms are located in different layers. Our theoretical predictions confirm the recent experimental findings in which a paramagnetic intermediate-band material in a SnS2 2H-polytype with 10% vanadium concentration is obtained.

Food market analysis: a case study of the Glocal methodology in the Dominican Republic

The present paper provides an insight into the food value chain of three specific sectors (fruit and vegetables, poultry and rice) in the Dominican Republic. The Glocal methodology used for the study combines a global view with local conditions and thus it can be applied to food markets. Each of these food chains is analyzed by following traditional industrial organization theory, based on structure, conduct and performance. Regarding the specific case of the Dominican Republic, different sources of information are used to analyze the weaknesses of the studied chains, including direct interviews. The food value chains of fruit and vegetables, poultry and rice in the Dominican Republic show a lack of structure and they are undergoing changes; however, they also have great opportunities to improve efficiency by making some changes.