A multi-level analysis of innovation diffusion: The case of solar photovoltaic systems in Germany and the disillusion of grid parity

¿Suministrarán las fuentes de energía renovables toda la energía que el mundo necesita algún día? Algunos argumentan que sí, mientras que otros dicen que no. Sin embargo, en algunas regiones del mundo, la producción de electricidad a través de fuentes de energía renovables ya está en una etapa prometedora de desarrollo en la que su costo de generación de electricidad compite con fuentes de electricidad convencionales, como por ejemplo la paridad de red. Este logro ha sido respaldado por el aumento de la eficiencia de la tecnología, la reducción de los costos de producción y, sobre todo, los años de intervenciones políticas de apoyo financiero. La difusión de los sistemas solares fotovoltaicos (PV) en Alemania es un ejemplo relevante. Alemania no sólo es el país líder en términos de capacidad instalada de sistemas fotovoltaicos (PV) en todo el mundo, sino también uno de los países pioneros donde la paridad de red se ha logrado recientemente. No obstante, podría haber una nube en el horizonte. La tasa de difusión ha comenzado a declinar en muchas regiones. Además, las empresas solares locales – que se sabe son importantes impulsores de la difusión – han comenzado a enfrentar dificultades para manejar sus negocios. Estos acontecimientos plantean algunas preguntas importantes: ¿Es ésta una disminución temporal en la difusión? ¿Los adoptantes continuarán instalando sistemas fotovoltaicos? ¿Qué pasa con los modelos de negocio de las empresas solares locales? Con base en el caso de los sistemas fotovoltaicos en Alemania a través de un análisis multinivel y dos revisiones literarias complementarias, esta tesis doctoral extiende el debate proporcionando riqueza múltiple de datos empíricos en un conocimiento de contexto limitado. El primer análisis se basa en la perspectiva del adoptante, que explora el nivel "micro" y el proceso social que subyace a la adopción de los sistemas fotovoltaicos. El segundo análisis es una perspectiva a nivel de empresa, que explora los modelos de negocio de las empresas y sus roles impulsores en la difusión de los sistemas fotovoltaicos. El tercero análisis es una perspectiva regional, la cual explora el nivel "meso", el proceso social que subyace a la adopción de sistemas fotovoltaicos y sus técnicas de modelado. Los resultados incluyen implicaciones tanto para académicos como políticos, no sólo sobre las innovaciones en energía renovable relativas a la paridad de red, sino también, de manera inductiva, sobre las innovaciones ambientales impulsadas por las políticas que logren la competitividad de costes. ABSTRACT Will renewable energy sources supply all of the world energy needs one day? Some argue yes, while others say no. However, in some regions of the world, the electricity production through renewable energy sources is already at a promising stage of development at which their electricity generation costs compete with conventional electricity sources’, i.e., grid parity. This achievement has been underpinned by the increase of technology efficiency, reduction of production costs and, above all, years of policy interventions of providing financial support. The diffusion of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in Germany is an important frontrunner case in point. Germany is not only the top country in terms of installed PV systems’ capacity worldwide but also one of the pioneer countries where the grid parity has recently been achieved. However, there might be a cloud on the horizon. The diffusion rate has started to decline in many regions. In addition, local solar firms – which are known to be important drivers of diffusion – have started to face difficulties to run their businesses. These developments raise some important questions: Is this a temporary decline on diffusion? Will adopters continue to install PV systems? What about the business models of the local solar firms? Based on the case of PV systems in Germany through a multi-level analysis and two complementary literature reviews, this PhD Dissertation extends the debate by providing multiple wealth of empirical details in a context-limited knowledge. The first analysis is based on the adopter perspective, which explores the “micro” level and the social process underlying the adoption of PV systems. The second one is a firm-level perspective, which explores the business models of firms and their driving roles in diffusion of PV systems. The third one is a regional perspective, which explores the “meso” level, i.e., the social process underlying the adoption of PV systems and its modeling techniques. The results include implications for both scholars and policymakers, not only about renewable energy innovations at grid parity, but also in an inductive manner, about policy-driven environmental innovations that achieve the cost competiveness.

Image processing methods for human brain connectivity analysis from in-vivo diffusion MRI

The structural connectivity of the brain is considered to encode species-wise and subject-wise patterns that will unlock large areas of understanding of the human brain. Currently, diffusion MRI of the living brain enables to map the microstructure of tissue, allowing to track the pathways of fiber bundles connecting the cortical regions across the brain. These bundles are summarized in a network representation called connectome that is analyzed using graph theory. The extraction of the connectome from diffusion MRI requires a large processing flow including image enhancement, reconstruction, segmentation, registration, diffusion tracking, etc. Although a concerted effort has been devoted to the definition of standard pipelines for the connectome extraction, it is still crucial to define quality assessment protocols of these workflows. The definition of quality control protocols is hindered by the complexity of the pipelines under test and the absolute lack of gold-standards for diffusion MRI data. Here we characterize the impact on structural connectivity workflows of the geometrical deformation typically shown by diffusion MRI data due to the inhomogeneity of magnetic susceptibility across the imaged object. We propose an evaluation framework to compare the existing methodologies to correct for these artifacts including whole-brain realistic phantoms. Additionally, we design and implement an image segmentation and registration method to avoid performing the correction task and to enable processing in the native space of diffusion data. We release PySDCev, an evaluation framework for the quality control of connectivity pipelines, specialized in the study of susceptibility-derived distortions. In this context, we propose Diffantom, a whole-brain phantom that provides a solution to the lack of gold-standard data. The three correction methodologies under comparison performed reasonably, and it is difficult to determine which method is more advisable. We demonstrate that susceptibility-derived correction is necessary to increase the sensitivity of connectivity pipelines, at the cost of specificity. Finally, with the registration and segmentation tool called regseg we demonstrate how the problem of susceptibility-derived distortion can be overcome allowing data to be used in their original coordinates. This is crucial to increase the sensitivity of the whole pipeline without any loss in specificity.

Finite Element Model of the Innovation Diffusion: An Application to Photovoltaic Systems

This paper presents a Finite Element Model, which has been used for forecasting the diffusion of innovations in time and space. Unlike conventional models used in diffusion literature, the model considers the spatial heterogeneity. The implementation steps of the model are explained by applying it to the case of diffusion of photovoltaic systems in a local region in southern Germany. The applied model is based on a parabolic partial differential equation that describes the diffusion ratio of photovoltaic systems in a given region over time. The results of the application show that the Finite Element Model constitutes a powerful tool to better understand the diffusion of an innovation as a simultaneous space-time process. For future research, model limitations and possible extensions are also discussed.

A subgrid viscosity Lagrance-Galerkin method for convection-diffusion problems

We present and analyze a subgrid viscosity Lagrange-Galerk in method that combines the subgrid eddy viscosity method proposed in W. Layton, A connection between subgrid scale eddy viscosity and mixed methods. Appl. Math. Comp., 133: 14 7-157, 2002, and a conventional Lagrange-Galerkin method in the framework of P1⊕ cubic bubble finite elements. This results in an efficient and easy to implement stabilized method for convection dominated convection diffusion reaction problems. Numerical experiments support the numerical analysis results and show that the new method is more accurate than the conventional Lagrange-Galerkin one.

Classical solutions for a logarithmic fractional diffusion equation

We prove global existence and uniqueness of strong solutions to the logarithmic porous medium type equation with fractional diffusion ?tu + (?)1/2 log(1 + u) = 0, posed for x ? R, with nonnegative initial data in some function space of LlogL type. The solutions are shown to become bounded and C? smooth in (x, t) for all positive times. We also reformulate this equation as a transport equation with nonlocal velocity and critical viscosity, a topic of current relevance. Interesting functional inequalities are involved.

Rhizobium leguminosarum HupE is a highly-specific diffusion facilitator for nickel uptake

Bacteria require nickel transporters for the synthesis of Ni-containing metalloenzymes in natural, low nickel habitats. In this work we carry out functional and topological characterization of Rhizobium leguminosarum HupE, a nickel permease required for the provision of this element for [NiFe] hydrogenase synthesis. Expression studies in the Escherichia coli nikABCDE mutant strain HYD723 revealed that HupE is a medium-affinity permease (apparent Km 227 ! 21 nM; Vmax 49 ! 21 pmol Ni2+ min"1 mg"1 bacterial dry weight) that functions as an energy-independent diffusion facilitator for the uptake of Ni(II) ions. This Ni2+ transport is not inhibited by similar cations such as Mn2+, Zn2+, or Co2+, but is blocked by Cu2+. Analysis of site-directed HupE mutants allowed the identification of several residues (H36, D42, H43, F69, E90, H130, and E133) that are essential for HupE-mediated Ni uptake in E. coli cells. By using translational fusions to reporter genes we demonstrated the presence of five transmembrane domains with a periplasmic N-terminal domain and a C-terminal domain buried in the lipid bilayer. The periplasmic N-terminal domain contributes to stability and functionality of the protein

Optimizing phosphorus diffusion for photovoltaic applications: peak doping, inactive phosphorus,gettering, and contact formation

The phosphosilicate glass (PSG), fabricated by tube furnace diffusion using a POCl3 source, is widely used as a dopant source in the manufacturing of crystalline silicon solar cells. Although it has been a widely addressed research topic for a long time, there is still lack of a comprehensive understanding of aspects such as the growth, the chemical composition, possible phosphorus depletion, the resulting in-diffused phosphorus profiles, the gettering behavior in silicon, and finally the metal-contact formation. This paper addresses these different aspects simultaneously to further optimize process conditions for photovoltaic applications. To do so, a wide range of experimental data is used and combined with device and process simulations, leading to a more comprehensive interpretation. The results show that slight changes in the PSG process conditions can produce high-quality emitters. It is predicted that PSG processes at 860 °C for 60 min in combination with an etch-back and laser doping from PSG layer results in high-quality emitters with a peak dopant density Npeak = 8.0 × 1018 cm−3 and a junction depth dj = 0.4 μm, resulting in a sheet resistivityρsh = 380 Ω/sq and a saturation current-density J0 below 10 fA/cm2. With these properties, the POCl3 process can compete with ion implantation or doped oxide approaches.