Mixed models for short-run forecasting of electricity prices: Application for the Spanish market

Short-run forecasting of electricity prices has become necessary for power generation unit schedule, since it is the basis of every profit maximization strategy. In this article a new and very easy method to compute accurate forecasts for electricity prices using mixed models is proposed. The main idea is to develop an efficient tool for one-step-ahead forecasting in the future, combining several prediction methods for which forecasting performance has been checked and compared for a span of several years. Also as a novelty, the 24 hourly time series has been modelled separately, instead of the complete time series of the prices. This allows one to take advantage of the homogeneity of these 24 time series. The purpose of this paper is to select the model that leads to smaller prediction errors and to obtain the appropriate length of time to use for forecasting. These results have been obtained by means of a computational experiment. A mixed model which combines the advantages of the two new models discussed is proposed. Some numerical results for the Spanish market are shown, but this new methodology can be applied to other electricity markets as well

Signal analysis and feature generation for pattern identification of partial discharges in high-voltage equipment

This paper proposes a method for the identification of different partial discharges (PDs) sources through the analysis of a collection of PD signals acquired with a PD measurement system. This method, robust and sensitive enough to cope with noisy data and external interferences, combines the characterization of each signal from the collection, with a clustering procedure, the CLARA algorithm. Several features are proposed for the characterization of the signals, being the wavelet variances, the frequency estimated with the Prony method, and the energy, the most relevant for the performance of the clustering procedure. The result of the unsupervised classification is a set of clusters each containing those signals which are more similar to each other than to those in other clusters. The analysis of the classification results permits both the identification of different PD sources and the discrimination between original PD signals, reflections, noise and external interferences. The methods and graphical tools detailed in this paper have been coded and published as a contributed package of the R environment under a GNU/GPL license.

Mechanical behavior of 2G REBCO HTS at 77 and 300 K

El gran esfuerzo realizado durante la última década con el fin de integrar los diferentes materiales superconductores en el campo de los sistemas eléctricos y en otras aplicaciones tecnológicas ha dado lugar a un campo de investigación amplio y prometedor. El comportamiento eléctrico de los Superconductores de Alta Temperatura (SAT) crítica (masivo y cintas) depende de diferentes parámetros desde su fabricación hasta la aplicación final con imanes o cables. Sin embargo, las aplicaciones prácticas de estos materiales están fuertemente vinculadas con su comportamiento mecánico tanto a temperatura ambiente (manipulación durante fabricación o instalación) como a temperaturas criogénicas (condiciones de servicio). En esta tesis se ha estudiado el comportamiento mecánico de materiales masivos y cintas de alta temperatura crítica a 300 y 77 K (utilizando nitrógeno líquido). Se han obtenido la resistencia en flexión, la tenacidad de fractura y la resistencia a tracción a la temperatura de servicio y a 300 K. Adicionalmente, se ha medido la dureza mediante el ensayo Vickers y nanoindentación. El módulo Young se midió mediante tres métodos diferentes: 1) nanoindentación, 2) ensayos de flexión en tres puntos y 3) resonancia vibracional mediante grindosonic. Para cada condición de ensayo, se han analizado detalladamente las superficies de fractura y los micromecanismos de fallo. Las propiedades mecánicas de los materiales se han comparado con el fin de entender la influencia de las técnicas de procesado y de las características microestructurales de los monocristales en su comportamiento mecánico. Se ha estudiado el comportamiento electromecánico de cintas comerciales superconductoras de YBCO mediante ensayos de tracción y fatiga a 77 y 300 K. El campo completo de deformaciones en la superficie del material se ha obtenido utilizando Correlación Digital de Imágenes (DIC, por sus siglas en inglés) a 300 K. Además, se realizaron ensayos de fragmentación in situ dentro de un microscopio electrónico con el fin de estudiar la fractura de la capa superconductora y determinar la resistencia a cortante de la intercara entre el substrato y la capa cerámica. Se ha conseguido ver el proceso de la fragmentación aplicando tensión axial y finalmente, se han implementado simulaciones mediante elementos finitos para reproducir la delaminación y el fenómeno de la fragmentación. Por último, se han preparado uniones soldadas entre las capas de cobre de dos cintas superconductoras. Se ha medido la resistencia eléctrica de las uniones con el fin de evaluar el metal de soldadura y el proceso. Asimismo, se ha llevado a cabo la caracterización mecánica de las uniones mediante ensayos "single lap shear" a 300 y 77 K. El efecto del campo magnético se ha estudiado aplicando campo externo hasta 1 T perpendicular o paralelo a la cinta-unión a la temperatura de servicio (77 K). Finalmente, la distribución de tensiones en cada una de las capas de la cinta se estudió mediante simulaciones de elementos finitos, teniendo en cuenta las capas de la cinta mecánicamente más representativas (Cu-Hastelloy-Cu) que influyen en su comportamiento mecánico. The strong effort that has been made in the last years to integrate the different superconducting materials in the field of electrical power systems and other technological applications led to a wide and promising research field. The electrical behavior of High Temperature Superconducting (HTS) materials (bulk and coated conductors) depends on different parameters since their processing until their final application as magnets or cables. However, practical applications of such materials are strongly related with their mechanical performance at room temperature (handling) as well as at cryogenic temperatures (service conditions). In this thesis, the mechanical behavior of HTS bulk and coated conductors was investigated at 300 and 77 K (by immersion in liquid nitrogen). The flexural strength, the fracture toughness and the tensile strength were obtained at service temperature as well as at 300 K. Furthermore, their hardness was determined by Vickers measurements and nanoindentation and the Young's modulus was measured by three different techniques: 1) nanoindentation, 2) three-point bending tests and 3) vibrational resonance with a grindosonic device. The fracture and deformation micromechanics have been also carefully analyzed for each testing condition. The comparison between the studied materials has been performed in order to understand the influence of the main sintering methods and the microstructural characteristics of the single grains on the macroscopic mechanical behavior. The electromechanical behavior of commercial YBCO coated conductors was studied. The mechanical behavior of the tapes was studied under tensile and fatigue tests at 77 and 300 K. The complete strain field on the surface of the sample was obtained by applying Digital Image Correlation (DIC) at 300 K. Addionally, in situ fragmentation tests inside a Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM) were carried out in order to study the fragmentation of the superconducting layer and determine the interfacial shear strength between substrate and ceramic layer. The fragmentation process upon loading of the YBCO layer has been observed and finally, Finite Element Simulations were employed to reproduce delamination and fragmentation phenomena. Finally, joints between the stabilizing Cu sides of two coated conductors have been prepared. The electrical resistivity of the joints was measured for the purpose of qualifying the soldering material and evaluating the soldering process. Additionally, mechanical characterization under single lap shear tests at 300 and 77 K has been carried out. The effect of the applied magnetic field has been studied by applying external magnetic field up to 1 T perpendicular and parallel to the tape-joint at service temperature (77 K). Finally, finite element simulations were employed to study the distribution of the stresses in earch layer, taking into account the three mechanically relevant layers of the coated conductor (Cu-Hastelloy-Cu) that affect its mechanical behavior

Computer workstation vetting by supply current monitoring

It is our goal within this project to develop a powerful electronic system capable to claim, with high certainty, that a malicious software is running (or not) along with the workstations’ normal activity. The new product will be based on measurement of the supply current taken by a workstation from the grid. Unique technique is proposed within these proceedings that analyses the supply current to produce information about the state of the workstation and to generate information of the presence of malicious software running along with the rightful applications. The testing is based on comparison of the behavior of a fault-free workstation (established i advance) and the behavior of the potentially faulty device.

A methodology to analyze, design and implement very fast and robust controls of Buck-type converters

La electrónica digital moderna presenta un desafío a los diseñadores de sistemas de potencia. El creciente alto rendimiento de microprocesadores, FPGAs y ASICs necesitan sistemas de alimentación que cumplan con requirimientos dinámicos y estáticos muy estrictos. Específicamente, estas alimentaciones son convertidores DC-DC de baja tensión y alta corriente que necesitan ser diseñados para tener un pequeño rizado de tensión y una pequeña desviación de tensión de salida bajo transitorios de carga de una alta pendiente. Además, dependiendo de la aplicación, se necesita cumplir con otros requerimientos tal y como proveer a la carga con ”Escalado dinámico de tensión”, donde el convertidor necesitar cambiar su tensión de salida tan rápidamente posible sin sobreoscilaciones, o ”Posicionado Adaptativo de la Tensión” donde la tensión de salida se reduce ligeramente cuanto más grande sea la potencia de salida. Por supuesto, desde el punto de vista de la industria, las figuras de mérito de estos convertidores son el coste, la eficiencia y el tamaño/peso. Idealmente, la industria necesita un convertidor que es más barato, más eficiente, más pequeño y que aún así cumpla con los requerimienos dinámicos de la aplicación. En este contexto, varios enfoques para mejorar la figuras de mérito de estos convertidores se han seguido por la industria y la academia tales como mejorar la topología del convertidor, mejorar la tecnología de semiconducores y mejorar el control. En efecto, el control es una parte fundamental en estas aplicaciones ya que un control muy rápido hace que sea más fácil que una determinada topología cumpla con los estrictos requerimientos dinámicos y, consecuentemente, le da al diseñador un margen de libertar más amplio para mejorar el coste, la eficiencia y/o el tamaño del sistema de potencia. En esta tesis, se investiga cómo diseñar e implementar controles muy rápidos para el convertidor tipo Buck. En esta tesis se demuestra que medir la tensión de salida es todo lo que se necesita para lograr una respuesta casi óptima y se propone una guía de diseño unificada para controles que sólo miden la tensión de salida Luego, para asegurar robustez en controles muy rápidos, se proponen un modelado y un análisis de estabilidad muy precisos de convertidores DC-DC que tienen en cuenta circuitería para sensado y elementos parásitos críticos. También, usando este modelado, se propone una algoritmo de optimización que tiene en cuenta las tolerancias de los componentes y sensados distorsionados. Us ando este algoritmo, se comparan controles muy rápidos del estado del arte y su capacidad para lograr una rápida respuesta dinámica se posiciona según el condensador de salida utilizado. Además, se propone una técnica para mejorar la respuesta dinámica de los controladores. Todas las propuestas se han corroborado por extensas simulaciones y prototipos experimentales. Con todo, esta tesis sirve como una metodología para ingenieros para diseñar e implementar controles rápidos y robustos de convertidores tipo Buck. ABSTRACT Modern digital electronics present a challenge to designers of power systems. The increasingly high-performance of microprocessors, FPGAs (Field Programmable Gate Array) and ASICs (Application-Specific Integrated Circuit) require power supplies to comply with very demanding static and dynamic requirements. Specifically, these power supplies are low-voltage/high-current DC-DC converters that need to be designed to exhibit low voltage ripple and low voltage deviation under high slew-rate load transients. Additionally, depending on the application, other requirements need to be met such as to provide to the load ”Dynamic Voltage Scaling” (DVS), where the converter needs to change the output voltage as fast as possible without underdamping, or ”Adaptive Voltage Positioning” (AVP) where the output voltage is slightly reduced the greater the output power. Of course, from the point of view of the industry, the figures of merit of these converters are the cost, efficiency and size/weight. Ideally, the industry needs a converter that is cheaper, more efficient, smaller and that can still meet the dynamic requirements of the application. In this context, several approaches to improve the figures of merit of these power supplies are followed in the industry and academia such as improving the topology of the converter, improving the semiconductor technology and improving the control. Indeed, the control is a fundamental part in these applications as a very fast control makes it easier for the topology to comply with the strict dynamic requirements and, consequently, gives the designer a larger margin of freedom to improve the cost, efficiency and/or size of the power supply. In this thesis, how to design and implement very fast controls for the Buck converter is investigated. This thesis proves that sensing the output voltage is all that is needed to achieve an almost time-optimal response and a unified design guideline for controls that only sense the output voltage is proposed. Then, in order to assure robustness in very fast controls, a very accurate modeling and stability analysis of DC-DC converters is proposed that takes into account sensing networks and critical parasitic elements. Also, using this modeling approach, an optimization algorithm that takes into account tolerances of components and distorted measurements is proposed. With the use of the algorithm, very fast analog controls of the state-of-the-art are compared and their capabilities to achieve a fast dynamic response are positioned de pending on the output capacitor. Additionally, a technique to improve the dynamic response of controllers is also proposed. All the proposals are corroborated by extensive simulations and experimental prototypes. Overall, this thesis serves as a methodology for engineers to design and implement fast and robust controls for Buck-type converters.

Frequency control support of a wind-solar isolated system by a hydropower plant with long tail-race tunnel

Pumped storage hydro plants (PSHP) can provide adequate energy storage and frequency regulation capacities in isolated power systems having significant renewable energy resources. Due to its high wind and solar potential, several plans have been developed for La Palma Island in the Canary archipelago, aimed at increasing the penetration of these energy sources. In this paper, the performance of the frequency control of La Palma power system is assessed, when the demand is supplied by the available wind and solar generation with the support of a PSHP which has been predesigned for this purpose. The frequency regulation is provided exclusively by the PSHP. Due to topographic and environmental constraints, this plant has a long tail-race tunnel without a surge tank. In this configuration, the effects of pressure waves cannot be neglected and, therefore, usual recommendations for PID governor tuning provide poor performance. A PI governor tuning criterion is proposed for the hydro plant and compared with other criteria according to several performance indices. Several scenarios considering solar and wind energy penetration have been simulated to check the plant response using the proposed criterion. This tuning of the PI governor maintains La Palma system frequency within grid code requirements.

A novel ground fault non-directional selective protection method for ungrounded distribution networks

This paper presents a new selective and non-directional protection method to detect ground faults in neutral isolated power systems. The new proposed method is based on the comparison of the rms value of the residual current of all the lines connected to a bus, and it is able to determine the line with ground defect. Additionally, this method can be used for the protection of secondary substation. This protection method avoids the unwanted trips produced by wrong settings or wiring errors, which sometimes occur in the existing directional ground fault protections. This new method has been validated through computer simulations and experimental laboratory tests.

3D simulation of complex shading affecting PV systems taking benefit from the power of graphics cards developed for the video game industry

Shading reduces the power output of a photovoltaic (PV) system. The design engineering of PV systems requires modeling and evaluating shading losses. Some PV systems are affected by complex shading scenes whose resulting PV energy losses are very difficult to evaluate with current modeling tools. Several specialized PV design and simulation software include the possibility to evaluate shading losses. They generally possess a Graphical User Interface (GUI) through which the user can draw a 3D shading scene, and then evaluate its corresponding PV energy losses. The complexity of the objects that these tools can handle is relatively limited. We have created a software solution, 3DPV, which allows evaluating the energy losses induced by complex 3D scenes on PV generators. The 3D objects can be imported from specialized 3D modeling software or from a 3D object library. The shadows cast by this 3D scene on the PV generator are then directly evaluated from the Graphics Processing Unit (GPU). Thanks to the recent development of GPUs for the video game industry, the shadows can be evaluated with a very high spatial resolution that reaches well beyond the PV cell level, in very short calculation times. A PV simulation model then translates the geometrical shading into PV energy output losses. 3DPV has been implemented using WebGL, which allows it to run directly from a Web browser, without requiring any local installation from the user. This also allows taken full benefits from the information already available from Internet, such as the 3D object libraries. This contribution describes, step by step, the method that allows 3DPV to evaluate the PV energy losses caused by complex shading. We then illustrate the results of this methodology to several application cases that are encountered in the world of PV systems design. Keywords: 3D, modeling, simulation, GPU, shading, losses, shadow mapping, solar, photovoltaic, PV, WebGL

Energy and power aware scheduling algorithm modeling for battery powered embedded systems

Energy management has always been recognized as a challenge in mobile systems, especially in modern OS-based mobile systems where multi-functioning are widely supported. Nowadays, it is common for a mobile system user to run multiple applications simultaneously while having a target battery lifetime in mind for a specific application. Traditional OS-level power management (PM) policies make their best effort to save energy under performance constraint, but fail to guarantee a target lifetime, leaving the painful trading off between the total performance of applications and the target lifetime to the user itself. This thesis provides a new way to deal with the problem. It is advocated that a strong energy-aware PM scheme should first guarantee a user-specified battery lifetime to a target application by restricting the average power of those less important applications, and in addition to that, maximize the total performance of applications without harming the lifetime guarantee. As a support, energy, instead of CPU or transmission bandwidth, should be globally managed as the first-class resource by the OS. As the first-stage work of a complete PM scheme, this thesis presents the energy-based fair queuing scheduling, a novel class of energy-aware scheduling algorithms which, in combination with a mechanism of battery discharge rate restricting, systematically manage energy as the first-class resource with the objective of guaranteeing a user-specified battery lifetime for a target application in OS-based mobile systems. Energy-based fair queuing is a cross-application of the traditional fair queuing in the energy management domain. It assigns a power share to each task, and manages energy by proportionally serving energy to tasks according to their assigned power shares. The proportional energy use establishes proportional share of the system power among tasks, which guarantees a minimum power for each task and thus, avoids energy starvation on any task. Energy-based fair queuing treats all tasks equally as one type and supports periodical time-sensitive tasks by allocating each of them a share of system power that is adequate to meet the highest energy demand in all periods. However, an overly conservative power share is usually required to guarantee the meeting of all time constraints. To provide more effective and flexible support for various types of time-sensitive tasks in general purpose operating systems, an extra real-time friendly mechanism is introduced to combine priority-based scheduling into the energy-based fair queuing. Since a method is available to control the maximum time one time-sensitive task can run with priority, the power control and time-constraint meeting can be flexibly traded off. A SystemC-based test-bench is designed to assess the algorithms. Simulation results show the success of the energy-based fair queuing in achieving proportional energy use, time-constraint meeting, and a proper trading off between them. La gestión de energía en los sistema móviles está considerada hoy en día como un reto fundamental, notándose, especialmente, en aquellos terminales que utilizando un sistema operativo implementan múltiples funciones. Es común en los sistemas móviles actuales ejecutar simultaneamente diferentes aplicaciones y tener, para una de ellas, un objetivo de tiempo de uso de la batería. Tradicionalmente, las políticas de gestión de consumo de potencia de los sistemas operativos hacen lo que está en sus manos para ahorrar energía y satisfacer sus requisitos de prestaciones, pero no son capaces de proporcionar un objetivo de tiempo de utilización del sistema, dejando al usuario la difícil tarea de buscar un compromiso entre prestaciones y tiempo de utilización del sistema. Esta tesis, como contribución, proporciona una nueva manera de afrontar el problema. En ella se establece que un esquema de gestión de consumo de energía debería, en primer lugar, garantizar, para una aplicación dada, un tiempo mínimo de utilización de la batería que estuviera especificado por el usuario, restringiendo la potencia media consumida por las aplicaciones que se puedan considerar menos importantes y, en segundo lugar, maximizar las prestaciones globales sin comprometer la garantía de utilización de la batería. Como soporte de lo anterior, la energía, en lugar del tiempo de CPU o el ancho de banda, debería gestionarse globalmente por el sistema operativo como recurso de primera clase. Como primera fase en el desarrollo completo de un esquema de gestión de consumo, esta tesis presenta un algoritmo de planificación de encolado equitativo (fair queueing) basado en el consumo de energía, es decir, una nueva clase de algoritmos de planificación que, en combinación con mecanismos que restrinjan la tasa de descarga de una batería, gestionen de forma sistemática la energía como recurso de primera clase, con el objetivo de garantizar, para una aplicación dada, un tiempo de uso de la batería, definido por el usuario, en sistemas móviles empotrados. El encolado equitativo de energía es una extensión al dominio de la energía del encolado equitativo tradicional. Esta clase de algoritmos asigna una reserva de potencia a cada tarea y gestiona la energía sirviéndola de manera proporcional a su reserva. Este uso proporcional de la energía garantiza que cada tarea reciba una porción de potencia y evita que haya tareas que se vean privadas de recibir energía por otras con un comportamiento más ambicioso. Esta clase de algoritmos trata a todas las tareas por igual y puede planificar tareas periódicas en tiempo real asignando a cada una de ellas una reserva de potencia que es adecuada para proporcionar la mayor de las cantidades de energía demandadas por período. Sin embargo, es posible demostrar que sólo se consigue cumplir con los requisitos impuestos por todos los plazos temporales con reservas de potencia extremadamente conservadoras. En esta tesis, para proporcionar un soporte más flexible y eficiente para diferentes tipos de tareas de tiempo real junto con el resto de tareas, se combina un mecanismo de planificación basado en prioridades con el encolado equitativo basado en energía. En esta clase de algoritmos, gracias al método introducido, que controla el tiempo que se ejecuta con prioridad una tarea de tiempo real, se puede establecer un compromiso entre el cumplimiento de los requisitos de tiempo real y el consumo de potencia. Para evaluar los algoritmos, se ha diseñado en SystemC un banco de pruebas. Los resultados muestran que el algoritmo de encolado equitativo basado en el consumo de energía consigue el balance entre el uso proporcional a la energía reservada y el cumplimiento de los requisitos de tiempo real.