Interregional trade changes in Spain caused by the introduction of a road fee charge for heavy goods vehicles

The introduction of a homogeneous road charging system according to the Directive 2011/76/EU for the use of roads is still under development in most European Union (EU) member states. Spain, like other EU members, has been encouraged to introduce a charging system for Heavy Goods Vehicles (HGVs) throughout the country. This nationwide charge has been postponed because there are serious concerns about their advantages from an economic point of view. Within this context, this paper applies an integrated modeling approach to shape elastic trade coefficients among regions by using a random utility based multiregional Input- Output (RUBMRIO) approach and a road transport network model in order to determine regional distributive and substitutive economic effects by simulating the introduction of a distance-based charge (?/km) considering 7,053.8 kilometers of free highways linking the capitals of the Spanish regions. In addition, an in-depth analysis of interregional trade changes is developed to evaluate and characterize the role of the road charging approach in trade relations among regions and across freight intensive economic sectors. For this purpose, differences in trade relations are described and assessed between a base-case or ?do nothing? scenario and a road fee-charge setting scenario. The results show that the specific amount of the charge set for HGVs affect each region differently and to a different extent because in some regions the price of commodities and the Generalized Transport Cost will decrease its competiveness within the country.

An integrated modeling approach to assess the impact on road freight transport demand of allowing longer and heavier vehicles (LHVs) in Spain

The assessment on introducing Longer and Heavier Vehicles (LHVs) on the road freight transport demand is performed in this paper by applying an integrated modeling approach composed of a Random Utility-Based Multiregional Input-Output model (RUBMRIO) and a road transport network model. The approach strongly supports the concept that changes in transport costs derived from the LHVs allowance as well as the economic structure of regions have both direct and indirect effects on the road freight transport system. In addition, we estimate the magnitude and extent of demand changes in the road freight transportation system by using the commodity-based structure of the approach to identify the effect on traffic flows and on pollutant emissions over the whole network of Spain by considering a sensitivity analysis of the main parameters which determine the share of Heavy-Goods Vehicles (HGVs) and LHVs. The results show that the introduction of LHVs will strengthen the competitiveness of the road haulage sector by reducing costs, emissions, and the total freight vehicles required.

Networks based on QKD and weakly trusted repeaters

We study how to use quantum key distribution (QKD) in common optical network infrastructures and propose a method to overcome its distance limitations. QKD is the first technology offering information theoretic secret-key distribution that relies only on the fundamental principles of quantum physics. Point-to-point QKD devices have reached a mature industrial state; however, these devices are severely limited in distance, since signals at the quantum level (e.g. single photons) are highly affected by the losses in the communication channel and intermediate devices. To overcome this limitation, intermediate nodes (i.e. repeaters) are used. Both, quantum-regime and trusted, classical, repeaters have been proposed in the QKD literature, but only the latter can be implemented in practice. As a novelty, we propose here a new QKD network model based on the use of not fully trusted intermediate nodes, referred as weakly trusted repeaters. This approach forces the attacker to simultaneously break several paths to get access to the exchanged key, thus improving significantly the security of the network. We formalize the model using network codes and provide real scenarios that allow users to exchange secure keys over metropolitan optical networks using only passive components.

Modelo de gestión de un embalse en tiempo real durante avenidas basado en redes bayesianas entrenadas con el método de optimización PLEM

En la actualidad, la gestión de embalses para el control de avenidas se realiza, comúnmente, utilizando modelos de simulación. Esto se debe, principalmente, a su facilidad de uso en tiempo real por parte del operador de la presa. Se han desarrollado modelos de optimización de la gestión del embalse que, aunque mejoran los resultados de los modelos de simulación, su aplicación en tiempo real se hace muy difícil o simplemente inviable, pues está limitada al conocimiento de la avenida futura que entra al embalse antes de tomar la decisión de vertido. Por esta razón, se ha planteado el objetivo de desarrollar un modelo de gestión de embalses en avenidas que incorpore las ventajas de un modelo de optimización y que sea de fácil uso en tiempo real por parte del gestor de la presa. Para ello, se construyó un modelo de red Bayesiana que representa los procesos de la cuenca vertiente y del embalse y, que aprende de casos generados sintéticamente mediante un modelo hidrológico agregado y un modelo de optimización de la gestión del embalse. En una primera etapa, se generó un gran número de episodios sintéticos de avenida utilizando el método de Monte Carlo, para obtener las lluvias, y un modelo agregado compuesto de transformación lluvia- escorrentía, para obtener los hidrogramas de avenida. Posteriormente, se utilizaron las series obtenidas como señales de entrada al modelo de gestión de embalses PLEM, que optimiza una función objetivo de costes mediante programación lineal entera mixta, generando igual número de eventos óptimos de caudal vertido y de evolución de niveles en el embalse. Los episodios simulados fueron usados para entrenar y evaluar dos modelos de red Bayesiana, uno que pronostica el caudal de entrada al embalse, y otro que predice el caudal vertido, ambos en un horizonte de tiempo que va desde una a cinco horas, en intervalos de una hora. En el caso de la red Bayesiana hidrológica, el caudal de entrada que se elige es el promedio de la distribución de probabilidad de pronóstico. En el caso de la red Bayesiana hidráulica, debido al comportamiento marcadamente no lineal de este proceso y a que la red Bayesiana devuelve un rango de posibles valores de caudal vertido, se ha desarrollado una metodología para seleccionar un único valor, que facilite el trabajo del operador de la presa. Esta metodología consiste en probar diversas estrategias propuestas, que incluyen zonificaciones y alternativas de selección de un único valor de caudal vertido en cada zonificación, a un conjunto suficiente de episodios sintéticos. Los resultados de cada estrategia se compararon con el método MEV, seleccionándose las estrategias que mejoran los resultados del MEV, en cuanto al caudal máximo vertido y el nivel máximo alcanzado por el embalse, cualquiera de las cuales puede usarse por el operador de la presa en tiempo real para el embalse de estudio (Talave). La metodología propuesta podría aplicarse a cualquier embalse aislado y, de esta manera, obtener, para ese embalse particular, diversas estrategias que mejoran los resultados del MEV. Finalmente, a modo de ejemplo, se ha aplicado la metodología a una avenida sintética, obteniendo el caudal vertido y el nivel del embalse en cada intervalo de tiempo, y se ha aplicado el modelo MIGEL para obtener en cada instante la configuración de apertura de los órganos de desagüe que evacuarán el caudal. Currently, the dam operator for the management of dams uses simulation models during flood events, mainly due to its ease of use in real time. Some models have been developed to optimize the management of the reservoir to improve the results of simulation models. However, real-time application becomes very difficult or simply unworkable, because the decision to discharge depends on the unknown future avenue entering the reservoir. For this reason, the main goal is to develop a model of reservoir management at avenues that incorporates the advantages of an optimization model. At the same time, it should be easy to use in real-time by the dam manager. For this purpose, a Bayesian network model has been developed to represent the processes of the watershed and reservoir. This model learns from cases generated synthetically by a hydrological model and an optimization model for managing the reservoir. In a first stage, a large number of synthetic flood events was generated using the Monte Carlo method, for rain, and rain-added processing model composed of runoff for the flood hydrographs. Subsequently, the series obtained were used as input signals to the reservoir management model PLEM that optimizes a target cost function using mixed integer linear programming. As a result, many optimal discharge rate events and water levels in the reservoir levels were generated. The simulated events were used to train and test two models of Bayesian network. The first one predicts the flow into the reservoir, and the second predicts the discharge flow. They work in a time horizon ranging from one to five hours, in intervals of an hour. In the case of hydrological Bayesian network, the chosen inflow is the average of the probability distribution forecast. In the case of hydraulic Bayesian network the highly non-linear behavior of this process results on a range of possible values of discharge flow. A methodology to select a single value has been developed to facilitate the dam operator work. This methodology tests various strategies proposed. They include zoning and alternative selection of a single value in each discharge rate zoning from a sufficient set of synthetic episodes. The results of each strategy are compared with the MEV method. The strategies that improve the outcomes of MEV are selected and can be used by the dam operator in real time applied to the reservoir study case (Talave). The methodology could be applied to any single reservoir and, thus, obtain, for the particular reservoir, various strategies that improve results from MEV. Finally, the methodology has been applied to a synthetic flood, obtaining the discharge flow and the reservoir level in each time interval. The open configuration floodgates to evacuate the flow at each interval have been obtained applying the MIGEL model.

Multiscale analysis of the mechanical behavior of needle-punched nonwoven fabrics

Los fieltros son una familia de materiales textiles constituidos por una red desordenada de fibras conectadas por medio de enlaces térmicos, químicos o mecánicos. Presentan menor rigidez y resistencia (al igual que un menor coste de procesado) que sus homólogos tejidos, pero mayor deformabilidad y capacidad de absorción de energía. Los fieltros se emplean en diversas aplicaciones en ingeniería tales como aislamiento térmico, geotextiles, láminas ignífugas, filtración y absorción de agua, impacto balístico, etc. En particular, los fieltros punzonados fabricados con fibras de alta resistencia presentan una excelente resistencia frente a impacto balístico, ofreciendo las mismas prestaciones que los materiales tejidos con un tercio de la densidad areal. Sin embargo, se sabe muy poco acerca de los mecanismos de deformación y fallo a nivel microscópico, ni sobre como influyen en las propiedades mecánicas del material. Esta carencia de conocimiento dificulta la optimización del comportamiento mecánico de estos materiales y también limita el desarrollo de modelos constitutivos basados en mecanismos físicos, que puedan ser útiles en el diseño de componentes estructurales. En esta tesis doctoral se ha llevado a cabo un estudio minucioso con el fin de determinar los mecanismos de deformación y las propiedades mecánicas de fieltros punzonados fabricados con fibras de polietileno de ultra alto peso molecular. Los procesos de deformación y disipación de energía se han caracterizado en detalle por medio de una combinación de técnicas experimentales (ensayos mecánicos macroscópicos a velocidades de deformación cuasi-estáticas y dinámicas, impacto balístico, ensayos de extracción de una o múltiples fibras, microscopía óptica, tomografía computarizada de rayos X y difracción de rayos X de gran ángulo) que proporcionan información de los mecanismos dominantes a distintas escalas. Los ensayos mecánicos macroscópicos muestran que el fieltro presenta una resistencia y ductilidad excepcionales. El estado inicial de las fibras es curvado, y la carga se transmite por el fieltro a través de una red aleatoria e isótropa de nudos creada por el proceso de punzonamiento, resultando en la formación de una red activa de fibra. La rotación y el estirado de las fibras activas es seguido por el deslizamiento y extracción de la fibra de los puntos de anclaje mecánico. La mayor parte de la resistencia y la energía disipada es proporcionada por la extracción de las fibras activas de los nudos, y la fractura final tiene lugar como consecuencia del desenredo total de la red en una sección dada donde la deformación macroscópica se localiza. No obstante, aunque la distribución inicial de la orientación de las fibras es isótropa, las propiedades mecánicas resultantes (en términos de rigidez, resistencia y energía absorbida) son muy anisótropas. Los ensayos de extracción de múltiples fibras en diferentes orientaciones muestran que la estructura de los nudos conecta más fibras en la dirección transversal en comparación con la dirección de la máquina. La mejor interconectividad de las fibras a lo largo de la dirección transversal da lugar a una esqueleto activo de fibras más denso, mejorando las propiedades mecánicas. En términos de afinidad, los fieltros deformados a lo largo de la dirección transversal exhiben deformación afín (la deformación macroscópica transfiere directamente a las fibras por el material circundante), mientras que el fieltro deformado a lo largo de la dirección de la máquina presenta deformación no afín, y la mayor parte de la deformación macroscópica no es transmitida a las fibras. A partir de estas observaciones experimentales, se ha desarrollado un modelo constitutivo para fieltros punzonados confinados por enlaces mecánicos. El modelo considera los efectos de la deformación no afín, la conectividad anisótropa inducida durante el punzonamiento, la curvatura y re-orientación de la fibra, así como el desenredo y extracción de la fibra de los nudos. El modelo proporciona la respuesta de un mesodominio del material correspondiente al volumen asociado a un elemento finito, y se divide en dos bloques. El primer bloque representa el comportamiento de la red y establece la relación entre el gradiente de deformación macroscópico y la respuesta microscópica, obtenido a partir de la integración de la respuesta de las fibras en el mesodominio. El segundo bloque describe el comportamiento de la fibra, teniendo en cuenta las características de la deformación de cada familia de fibras en el mesodominio, incluyendo deformación no afín, estiramiento, deslizamiento y extracción. En la medida de lo posible, se ha asignado un significado físico claro a los parámetros del modelo, por lo que se pueden identificar por medio de ensayos independientes. Las simulaciones numéricas basadas en el modelo se adecúan a los resultados experimentales de ensayos cuasi-estáticos y balísticos desde el punto de vista de la respuesta mecánica macroscópica y de los micromecanismos de deformación. Además, suministran información adicional sobre la influencia de las características microstructurales (orientación de la fibra, conectividad de la fibra anisótropa, afinidad, etc) en el comportamiento mecánico de los fieltros punzonados. Nonwoven fabrics are a class of textile material made up of a disordered fiber network linked by either thermal, chemical or mechanical bonds. They present lower stiffness and strength (as well as processing cost) than the woven counterparts but much higher deformability and energy absorption capability and are used in many different engineering applications (including thermal insulation, geotextiles, fireproof layers, filtration and water absorption, ballistic impact, etc). In particular, needle-punched nonwoven fabrics manufactured with high strength fibers present an excellent performance for ballistic protection, providing the same ballistic protection with one third of the areal weight as compared to dry woven fabrics. Nevertheless, very little is known about their deformation and fracture micromechanisms at the microscopic level and how they contribute to the macroscopic mechanical properties. This lack of knowledge hinders the optimization of their mechanical performance and also limits the development of physically-based models of the mechanical behavior that can be used in the design of structural components with these materials. In this thesis, a thorough study was carried out to ascertain the micromechanisms of deformation and the mechanical properties of a needle-punched nonwoven fabric made up by ultra high molecular weight polyethylene fibers. The deformation and energy dissipation processes were characterized in detail by a combination of experimental techniques (macroscopic mechanical tests at quasi-static and high strain rates, ballistic impact, single fiber and multi fiber pull-out tests, optical microscopy, X-ray computed tomography and wide angle X-ray diffraction) that provided information of the dominant mechanisms at different length scales. The macroscopic mechanical tests showed that the nonwoven fabric presented an outstanding strength and energy absorption capacity. It was found that fibers were initially curved and the load was transferred within the fabric through the random and isotropic network of knots created by needlepunching, leading to the formation of an active fiber network. Uncurling and stretching of the active fibers was followed by fiber sliding and pull-out from the entanglement points. Most of the strength and energy dissipation was provided by the extraction of the active fibers from the knots and final fracture occurred by the total disentanglement of the fiber network in a given section at which the macroscopic deformation was localized. However, although the initial fiber orientation distribution was isotropic, the mechanical properties (in terms of stiffness, strength and energy absorption) were highly anisotropic. Pull-out tests of multiple fibers at different orientations showed that structure of the knots connected more fibers in the transverse direction as compared with the machine direction. The better fiber interconnection along the transverse direction led to a denser active fiber skeleton, enhancing the mechanical response. In terms of affinity, fabrics deformed along the transverse direction essentially displayed affine deformation {i.e. the macroscopic strain was directly transferred to the fibers by the surrounding fabric, while fabrics deformed along the machine direction underwent non-affine deformation, and most of the macroscopic strain was not transferred to the fibers. Based on these experimental observations, a constitutive model for the mechanical behavior of the mechanically-entangled nonwoven fiber network was developed. The model accounted for the effects of non-affine deformation, anisotropic connectivity induced by the entanglement points, fiber uncurling and re-orientation as well as fiber disentanglement and pull-out from the knots. The model provided the constitutive response for a mesodomain of the fabric corresponding to the volume associated to a finite element and is divided in two blocks. The first one was the network model which established the relationship between the macroscopic deformation gradient and the microscopic response obtained by integrating the response of the fibers in the mesodomain. The second one was the fiber model, which took into account the deformation features of each set of fibers in the mesodomain, including non-affinity, uncurling, pull-out and disentanglement. As far as possible, a clear physical meaning is given to the model parameters, so they can be identified by means of independent tests. The numerical simulations based on the model were in very good agreement with the experimental results of in-plane and ballistic mechanical response of the fabrics in terms of the macroscopic mechanical response and of the micromechanisms of deformation. In addition, it provided additional information about the influence of the microstructural features (fiber orientation, anisotropic fiber connectivity, affinity) on the mechanical performance of mechanically-entangled nonwoven fabrics.

Study of the II Network as the Compound Slot Equivalent Circuit Model

A combination of Method of Moments (MoM) and compound slot Equivalent Circuit Model for linear array design is presented in this document. From the S Matrix of the single element, the more suitable network for its characterization is analyzed and selected. Then according to the radiation requirements of the desired array, the elements are designed and then properly connected by means of Forward Matching Procedure (FMP), which takes into account impedance matters in order to keep the input matched at the designing frequency. Comparison between HFSS simulations and MoM-FMP results are also presented. First part of this work was introduced in (1)(2) but a summary is included here to make the understanding easier.

A Prediction Model to Diabetes using Artificial Metaplasticity

Diabetes is the most common disease nowadays in all populations and in all age groups. Different techniques of artificial intelligence has been applied to diabetes problem. This research proposed the artificial metaplasticity on multilayer perceptron (AMMLP) as prediction model for prediction of diabetes. The Pima Indians diabetes was used to test the proposed model AMMLP. The results obtained by AMMLP were compared with other algorithms, recently proposed by other researchers, that were applied to the same database. The best result obtained so far with the AMMLP algorithm is 89.93%

Artificial cognitive control system based on the shared circuits model of sociocognitive capacities. A first approach

sharedcircuitmodels is presented in this work. The sharedcircuitsmodelapproach of sociocognitivecapacities recently proposed by Hurley in The sharedcircuitsmodel (SCM): how control, mirroring, and simulation can enable imitation, deliberation, and mindreading. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 31(1) (2008) 1–22 is enriched and improved in this work. A five-layer computational architecture for designing artificialcognitivecontrolsystems is proposed on the basis of a modified sharedcircuitsmodel for emulating sociocognitive experiences such as imitation, deliberation, and mindreading. In order to show the enormous potential of this approach, a simplified implementation is applied to a case study. An artificialcognitivecontrolsystem is applied for controlling force in a manufacturing process that demonstrates the suitability of the suggested approach

Using modular neural networks to model self-consciousness and self-representation for artificial entities

Self-consciousness implies not only self or group recognition, but also real knowledge of one’s own identity. Self-consciousness is only possible if an individual is intelligent enough to formulate an abstract self-representation. Moreover, it necessarily entails the capability of referencing and using this elf-representation in connection with other cognitive features, such as inference, and the anticipation of the consequences of both one’s own and other individuals’ acts. In this paper, a cognitive architecture for self-consciousness is proposed. This cognitive architecture includes several modules: abstraction, self-representation, other individuals'representation, decision and action modules. It includes a learning process of self-representation by direct (self-experience based) and observational learning (based on the observation of other individuals). For model implementation a new approach is taken using Modular Artificial Neural Networks (MANN). For model testing, a virtual environment has been implemented. This virtual environment can be described as a holonic system or holarchy, meaning that it is composed of autonomous entities that behave both as a whole and as part of a greater whole. The system is composed of a certain number of holons interacting. These holons are equipped with cognitive features, such as sensory perception, and a simplified model of personality and self-representation. We explain holons’ cognitive architecture that enables dynamic self-representation. We analyse the effect of holon interaction, focusing on the evolution of the holon’s abstract self-representation. Finally, the results are explained and analysed and conclusions drawn.

An ecological approach to anomaly detection: the EIA Model.

The presented work proposes a new approach for anomaly detection. This approach is based on changes in a population of evolving agents under stress. If conditions are appropriate, changes in the population (modeled by the bioindicators) are representative of the alterations to the environment. This approach, based on an ecological view, improves functionally traditional approaches to the detection of anomalies. To verify this assertion, experiments based on Network Intrussion Detection Systems are presented. The results are compared with the behaviour of other bioinspired approaches and machine learning techniques.

Contributions to Bayesian network learning with applications to neuroscience

Neuronal morphology is a key feature in the study of brain circuits, as it is highly related to information processing and functional identification. Neuronal morphology affects the process of integration of inputs from other neurons and determines the neurons which receive the output of the neurons. Different parts of the neurons can operate semi-independently according to the spatial location of the synaptic connections. As a result, there is considerable interest in the analysis of the microanatomy of nervous cells since it constitutes an excellent tool for better understanding cortical function. However, the morphologies, molecular features and electrophysiological properties of neuronal cells are extremely variable. Except for some special cases, this variability makes it hard to find a set of features that unambiguously define a neuronal type. In addition, there are distinct types of neurons in particular regions of the brain. This morphological variability makes the analysis and modeling of neuronal morphology a challenge. Uncertainty is a key feature in many complex real-world problems. Probability theory provides a framework for modeling and reasoning with uncertainty. Probabilistic graphical models combine statistical theory and graph theory to provide a tool for managing domains with uncertainty. In particular, we focus on Bayesian networks, the most commonly used probabilistic graphical model. In this dissertation, we design new methods for learning Bayesian networks and apply them to the problem of modeling and analyzing morphological data from neurons. The morphology of a neuron can be quantified using a number of measurements, e.g., the length of the dendrites and the axon, the number of bifurcations, the direction of the dendrites and the axon, etc. These measurements can be modeled as discrete or continuous data. The continuous data can be linear (e.g., the length or the width of a dendrite) or directional (e.g., the direction of the axon). These data may follow complex probability distributions and may not fit any known parametric distribution. Modeling this kind of problems using hybrid Bayesian networks with discrete, linear and directional variables poses a number of challenges regarding learning from data, inference, etc. In this dissertation, we propose a method for modeling and simulating basal dendritic trees from pyramidal neurons using Bayesian networks to capture the interactions between the variables in the problem domain. A complete set of variables is measured from the dendrites, and a learning algorithm is applied to find the structure and estimate the parameters of the probability distributions included in the Bayesian networks. Then, a simulation algorithm is used to build the virtual dendrites by sampling values from the Bayesian networks, and a thorough evaluation is performed to show the model’s ability to generate realistic dendrites. In this first approach, the variables are discretized so that discrete Bayesian networks can be learned and simulated. Then, we address the problem of learning hybrid Bayesian networks with different kinds of variables. Mixtures of polynomials have been proposed as a way of representing probability densities in hybrid Bayesian networks. We present a method for learning mixtures of polynomials approximations of one-dimensional, multidimensional and conditional probability densities from data. The method is based on basis spline interpolation, where a density is approximated as a linear combination of basis splines. The proposed algorithms are evaluated using artificial datasets. We also use the proposed methods as a non-parametric density estimation technique in Bayesian network classifiers. Next, we address the problem of including directional data in Bayesian networks. These data have some special properties that rule out the use of classical statistics. Therefore, different distributions and statistics, such as the univariate von Mises and the multivariate von Mises–Fisher distributions, should be used to deal with this kind of information. In particular, we extend the naive Bayes classifier to the case where the conditional probability distributions of the predictive variables given the class follow either of these distributions. We consider the simple scenario, where only directional predictive variables are used, and the hybrid case, where discrete, Gaussian and directional distributions are mixed. The classifier decision functions and their decision surfaces are studied at length. Artificial examples are used to illustrate the behavior of the classifiers. The proposed classifiers are empirically evaluated over real datasets. We also study the problem of interneuron classification. An extensive group of experts is asked to classify a set of neurons according to their most prominent anatomical features. A web application is developed to retrieve the experts’ classifications. We compute agreement measures to analyze the consensus between the experts when classifying the neurons. Using Bayesian networks and clustering algorithms on the resulting data, we investigate the suitability of the anatomical terms and neuron types commonly used in the literature. Additionally, we apply supervised learning approaches to automatically classify interneurons using the values of their morphological measurements. Then, a methodology for building a model which captures the opinions of all the experts is presented. First, one Bayesian network is learned for each expert, and we propose an algorithm for clustering Bayesian networks corresponding to experts with similar behaviors. Then, a Bayesian network which represents the opinions of each group of experts is induced. Finally, a consensus Bayesian multinet which models the opinions of the whole group of experts is built. A thorough analysis of the consensus model identifies different behaviors between the experts when classifying the interneurons in the experiment. A set of characterizing morphological traits for the neuronal types can be defined by performing inference in the Bayesian multinet. These findings are used to validate the model and to gain some insights into neuron morphology. Finally, we study a classification problem where the true class label of the training instances is not known. Instead, a set of class labels is available for each instance. This is inspired by the neuron classification problem, where a group of experts is asked to individually provide a class label for each instance. We propose a novel approach for learning Bayesian networks using count vectors which represent the number of experts who selected each class label for each instance. These Bayesian networks are evaluated using artificial datasets from supervised learning problems. Resumen La morfología neuronal es una característica clave en el estudio de los circuitos cerebrales, ya que está altamente relacionada con el procesado de información y con los roles funcionales. La morfología neuronal afecta al proceso de integración de las señales de entrada y determina las neuronas que reciben las salidas de otras neuronas. Las diferentes partes de la neurona pueden operar de forma semi-independiente de acuerdo a la localización espacial de las conexiones sinápticas. Por tanto, existe un interés considerable en el análisis de la microanatomía de las células nerviosas, ya que constituye una excelente herramienta para comprender mejor el funcionamiento de la corteza cerebral. Sin embargo, las propiedades morfológicas, moleculares y electrofisiológicas de las células neuronales son extremadamente variables. Excepto en algunos casos especiales, esta variabilidad morfológica dificulta la definición de un conjunto de características que distingan claramente un tipo neuronal. Además, existen diferentes tipos de neuronas en regiones particulares del cerebro. La variabilidad neuronal hace que el análisis y el modelado de la morfología neuronal sean un importante reto científico. La incertidumbre es una propiedad clave en muchos problemas reales. La teoría de la probabilidad proporciona un marco para modelar y razonar bajo incertidumbre. Los modelos gráficos probabilísticos combinan la teoría estadística y la teoría de grafos con el objetivo de proporcionar una herramienta con la que trabajar bajo incertidumbre. En particular, nos centraremos en las redes bayesianas, el modelo más utilizado dentro de los modelos gráficos probabilísticos. En esta tesis hemos diseñado nuevos métodos para aprender redes bayesianas, inspirados por y aplicados al problema del modelado y análisis de datos morfológicos de neuronas. La morfología de una neurona puede ser cuantificada usando una serie de medidas, por ejemplo, la longitud de las dendritas y el axón, el número de bifurcaciones, la dirección de las dendritas y el axón, etc. Estas medidas pueden ser modeladas como datos continuos o discretos. A su vez, los datos continuos pueden ser lineales (por ejemplo, la longitud o la anchura de una dendrita) o direccionales (por ejemplo, la dirección del axón). Estos datos pueden llegar a seguir distribuciones de probabilidad muy complejas y pueden no ajustarse a ninguna distribución paramétrica conocida. El modelado de este tipo de problemas con redes bayesianas híbridas incluyendo variables discretas, lineales y direccionales presenta una serie de retos en relación al aprendizaje a partir de datos, la inferencia, etc. En esta tesis se propone un método para modelar y simular árboles dendríticos basales de neuronas piramidales usando redes bayesianas para capturar las interacciones entre las variables del problema. Para ello, se mide un amplio conjunto de variables de las dendritas y se aplica un algoritmo de aprendizaje con el que se aprende la estructura y se estiman los parámetros de las distribuciones de probabilidad que constituyen las redes bayesianas. Después, se usa un algoritmo de simulación para construir dendritas virtuales mediante el muestreo de valores de las redes bayesianas. Finalmente, se lleva a cabo una profunda evaluaci ón para verificar la capacidad del modelo a la hora de generar dendritas realistas. En esta primera aproximación, las variables fueron discretizadas para poder aprender y muestrear las redes bayesianas. A continuación, se aborda el problema del aprendizaje de redes bayesianas con diferentes tipos de variables. Las mixturas de polinomios constituyen un método para representar densidades de probabilidad en redes bayesianas híbridas. Presentamos un método para aprender aproximaciones de densidades unidimensionales, multidimensionales y condicionales a partir de datos utilizando mixturas de polinomios. El método se basa en interpolación con splines, que aproxima una densidad como una combinación lineal de splines. Los algoritmos propuestos se evalúan utilizando bases de datos artificiales. Además, las mixturas de polinomios son utilizadas como un método no paramétrico de estimación de densidades para clasificadores basados en redes bayesianas. Después, se estudia el problema de incluir información direccional en redes bayesianas. Este tipo de datos presenta una serie de características especiales que impiden el uso de las técnicas estadísticas clásicas. Por ello, para manejar este tipo de información se deben usar estadísticos y distribuciones de probabilidad específicos, como la distribución univariante von Mises y la distribución multivariante von Mises–Fisher. En concreto, en esta tesis extendemos el clasificador naive Bayes al caso en el que las distribuciones de probabilidad condicionada de las variables predictoras dada la clase siguen alguna de estas distribuciones. Se estudia el caso base, en el que sólo se utilizan variables direccionales, y el caso híbrido, en el que variables discretas, lineales y direccionales aparecen mezcladas. También se estudian los clasificadores desde un punto de vista teórico, derivando sus funciones de decisión y las superficies de decisión asociadas. El comportamiento de los clasificadores se ilustra utilizando bases de datos artificiales. Además, los clasificadores son evaluados empíricamente utilizando bases de datos reales. También se estudia el problema de la clasificación de interneuronas. Desarrollamos una aplicación web que permite a un grupo de expertos clasificar un conjunto de neuronas de acuerdo a sus características morfológicas más destacadas. Se utilizan medidas de concordancia para analizar el consenso entre los expertos a la hora de clasificar las neuronas. Se investiga la idoneidad de los términos anatómicos y de los tipos neuronales utilizados frecuentemente en la literatura a través del análisis de redes bayesianas y la aplicación de algoritmos de clustering. Además, se aplican técnicas de aprendizaje supervisado con el objetivo de clasificar de forma automática las interneuronas a partir de sus valores morfológicos. A continuación, se presenta una metodología para construir un modelo que captura las opiniones de todos los expertos. Primero, se genera una red bayesiana para cada experto y se propone un algoritmo para agrupar las redes bayesianas que se corresponden con expertos con comportamientos similares. Después, se induce una red bayesiana que modela la opinión de cada grupo de expertos. Por último, se construye una multired bayesiana que modela las opiniones del conjunto completo de expertos. El análisis del modelo consensuado permite identificar diferentes comportamientos entre los expertos a la hora de clasificar las neuronas. Además, permite extraer un conjunto de características morfológicas relevantes para cada uno de los tipos neuronales mediante inferencia con la multired bayesiana. Estos descubrimientos se utilizan para validar el modelo y constituyen información relevante acerca de la morfología neuronal. Por último, se estudia un problema de clasificación en el que la etiqueta de clase de los datos de entrenamiento es incierta. En cambio, disponemos de un conjunto de etiquetas para cada instancia. Este problema está inspirado en el problema de la clasificación de neuronas, en el que un grupo de expertos proporciona una etiqueta de clase para cada instancia de manera individual. Se propone un método para aprender redes bayesianas utilizando vectores de cuentas, que representan el número de expertos que seleccionan cada etiqueta de clase para cada instancia. Estas redes bayesianas se evalúan utilizando bases de datos artificiales de problemas de aprendizaje supervisado.

B2DI a bayesian BDI agent model with causal belief updating based on MSBN

In this paper, we introduce B2DI model that extends BDI model to perform Bayesian inference under uncertainty. For scalability and flexibility purposes, Multiply Sectioned Bayesian Network (MSBN) technology has been selected and adapted to BDI agent reasoning. A belief update mechanism has been defined for agents, whose belief models are connected by public shared beliefs, and the certainty of these beliefs is updated based on MSBN. The classical BDI agent architecture has been extended in order to manage uncertainty using Bayesian reasoning. The resulting extended model, so-called B2DI, proposes a new control loop. The proposed B2DI model has been evaluated in a network fault diagnosis scenario. The evaluation has compared this model with two previously developed agent models. The evaluation has been carried out with a real testbed diagnosis scenario using JADEX. As a result, the proposed model exhibits significant improvements in the cost and time required to carry out a reliable diagnosis.

Knowledge Modelling in Multiagent Systems: The Case of the Management of a National Network

This paper presents the knowledge model of a distributed decision support system, that has been designed for the management of a national network in Ukraine. It shows how advanced Artificial Intelligence techniques (multiagent systems and knowledge modelling) have been applied to solve this real-world decision support problem: on the one hand its distributed nature, implied by different loci of decision-making at the network nodes, suggested to apply a multiagent solution; on the other, due to the complexity of problem-solving for local network administration, it was useful to apply knowledge modelling techniques, in order to structure the different knowledge types and reasoning processes involved. The paper sets out from a description of our particular management problem. Subsequently, our agent model is described, pointing out the local problem-solving and coordination knowledge models. Finally, the dynamics of the approach is illustrated by an example.

Learning Bayesian networks from data by the incremental compilation of new network polynomials

Probabilistic graphical models are a huge research field in artificial intelligence nowadays. The scope of this work is the study of directed graphical models for the representation of discrete distributions. Two of the main research topics related to this area focus on performing inference over graphical models and on learning graphical models from data. Traditionally, the inference process and the learning process have been treated separately, but given that the learned models structure marks the inference complexity, this kind of strategies will sometimes produce very inefficient models. With the purpose of learning thinner models, in this master thesis we propose a new model for the representation of network polynomials, which we call polynomial trees. Polynomial trees are a complementary representation for Bayesian networks that allows an efficient evaluation of the inference complexity and provides a framework for exact inference. We also propose a set of methods for the incremental compilation of polynomial trees and an algorithm for learning polynomial trees from data using a greedy score+search method that includes the inference complexity as a penalization in the scoring function.

Inteligencia artificial para la predicción y control del acabado superficial en procesos de fresado a alta velocidad

El objetivo principal de esta tesis doctoral es profundizar en el análisis y diseño de un sistema inteligente para la predicción y control del acabado superficial en un proceso de fresado a alta velocidad, basado fundamentalmente en clasificadores Bayesianos, con el prop´osito de desarrollar una metodolog´ıa que facilite el diseño de este tipo de sistemas. El sistema, cuyo propósito es posibilitar la predicción y control de la rugosidad superficial, se compone de un modelo aprendido a partir de datos experimentales con redes Bayesianas, que ayudar´a a comprender los procesos dinámicos involucrados en el mecanizado y las interacciones entre las variables relevantes. Dado que las redes neuronales artificiales son modelos ampliamente utilizados en procesos de corte de materiales, también se incluye un modelo para fresado usándolas, donde se introdujo la geometría y la dureza del material como variables novedosas hasta ahora no estudiadas en este contexto. Por lo tanto, una importante contribución en esta tesis son estos dos modelos para la predicción de la rugosidad superficial, que se comparan con respecto a diferentes aspectos: la influencia de las nuevas variables, los indicadores de evaluación del desempeño, interpretabilidad. Uno de los principales problemas en la modelización con clasificadores Bayesianos es la comprensión de las enormes tablas de probabilidad a posteriori producidas. Introducimos un m´etodo de explicación que genera un conjunto de reglas obtenidas de árboles de decisión. Estos árboles son inducidos a partir de un conjunto de datos simulados generados de las probabilidades a posteriori de la variable clase, calculadas con la red Bayesiana aprendida a partir de un conjunto de datos de entrenamiento. Por último, contribuimos en el campo multiobjetivo en el caso de que algunos de los objetivos no se puedan cuantificar en números reales, sino como funciones en intervalo de valores. Esto ocurre a menudo en aplicaciones de aprendizaje automático, especialmente las basadas en clasificación supervisada. En concreto, se extienden las ideas de dominancia y frontera de Pareto a esta situación. Su aplicación a los estudios de predicción de la rugosidad superficial en el caso de maximizar al mismo tiempo la sensibilidad y la especificidad del clasificador inducido de la red Bayesiana, y no solo maximizar la tasa de clasificación correcta. Los intervalos de estos dos objetivos provienen de un m´etodo de estimación honesta de ambos objetivos, como e.g. validación cruzada en k rodajas o bootstrap.---ABSTRACT---The main objective of this PhD Thesis is to go more deeply into the analysis and design of an intelligent system for surface roughness prediction and control in the end-milling machining process, based fundamentally on Bayesian network classifiers, with the aim of developing a methodology that makes easier the design of this type of systems. The system, whose purpose is to make possible the surface roughness prediction and control, consists of a model learnt from experimental data with the aid of Bayesian networks, that will help to understand the dynamic processes involved in the machining and the interactions among the relevant variables. Since artificial neural networks are models widely used in material cutting proceses, we include also an end-milling model using them, where the geometry and hardness of the piecework are introduced as novel variables not studied so far within this context. Thus, an important contribution in this thesis is these two models for surface roughness prediction, that are then compared with respecto to different aspects: influence of the new variables, performance evaluation metrics, interpretability. One of the main problems with Bayesian classifier-based modelling is the understanding of the enormous posterior probabilitiy tables produced. We introduce an explanation method that generates a set of rules obtained from decision trees. Such trees are induced from a simulated data set generated from the posterior probabilities of the class variable, calculated with the Bayesian network learned from a training data set. Finally, we contribute in the multi-objective field in the case that some of the objectives cannot be quantified as real numbers but as interval-valued functions. This often occurs in machine learning applications, especially those based on supervised classification. Specifically, the dominance and Pareto front ideas are extended to this setting. Its application to the surface roughness prediction studies the case of maximizing simultaneously the sensitivity and specificity of the induced Bayesian network classifier, rather than only maximizing the correct classification rate. Intervals in these two objectives come from a honest estimation method of both objectives, like e.g. k-fold cross-validation or bootstrap.