Modelling and forecasting fossil fuels, CO2 and electricity prices and their volatilities

In the current uncertain context that affects both the world economy and the energy sector, with the rapid increase in the prices of oil and gas and the very unstable political situation that affects some of the largest raw materials’ producers, there is a need for developing efficient and powerful quantitative tools that allow to model and forecast fossil fuel prices, CO2 emission allowances prices as well as electricity prices. This will improve decision making for all the agents involved in energy issues. Although there are papers focused on modelling fossil fuel prices, CO2 prices and electricity prices, the literature is scarce on attempts to consider all of them together. This paper focuses on both building a multivariate model for the aforementioned prices and comparing its results with those of univariate ones, in terms of prediction accuracy (univariate and multivariate models are compared for a large span of days, all in the first 4 months in 2011) as well as extracting common features in the volatilities of the prices of all these relevant magnitudes. The common features in volatility are extracted by means of a conditionally heteroskedastic dynamic factor model which allows to solve the curse of dimensionality problem that commonly arises when estimating multivariate GARCH models. Additionally, the common volatility factors obtained are useful for improving the forecasting intervals and have a nice economical interpretation. Besides, the results obtained and methodology proposed can be useful as a starting point for risk management or portfolio optimization under uncertainty in the current context of energy markets.

Vegetal preservation in the “Lo Hueco” fossil site (Cuenca, Spain)

Preservación Vegetal en el yacimiento Lo Hueco (Cuenca, España)

Airplane materials compatibility with blends of fossil kerosene JET A1 with biokerosenes from babassu, palm kernel and coconut oils

The aviation companies are facing some problems that argue in favor of biofuels: Rising cost of traditional fuel: from 0.71 USD/gallon in May 2003 to 3.09 USD/gallon in January 2012. Environmental concerns: direct emissions from aviation account for about 3 % of the EU’s total greenhouse gas emissions. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) forecasts that by 2050 they could grow by a further 300-700 %. On December 20th 2006 the European Commission approved a law proposal to include the civil aviation sector in the European market of carbon dioxide emission rights (European Union Emissions Trading System, EUETS)

Blends of babassu, palm kernal and coconut mame with fossil kerosene: low carbon number methyl esters as a possible source for renewable jet fuel

Three different oils: babassu, coconut and palm kernel have been transesterified with methanol. The fatty acid methyl esters (FAME) have been subjected to vacuum fractional distillation, and the low boiling point fractions have been blended with fossil kerosene at three different proportions: 5, 10 and 20% vol.

Blends of babassu, palm kernel and coconut fame with fossil kerosene. Technical aspects of low carbon number methyl esters as a possible source for renewable jet fuel

State of the Art. Process and Distillation. Fuel Characterization. Fuel Compatibility Tests

Airplane materials compatibility with blends of fossil kerosene jet a1 with biokerosenes from babassu, palm kernel and coconut oils

El desarrollo de bioqueroseno de diferentes orígenes y su uso creciente, hacen necesario el estudio de la compatibilidad estos nuevos combustibles con los materiales y recubrimientos con los que se encuentra en contacto. Por tanto, el presente proyecto estudia la compatibilidad de los bioquerosenos mezclados en diferentes proporciones con queroseno mineral, para evaluar posteriormente su compatibilidad con diferentes polímeros y composites presentes en la estructura de un avión.Currently there is a big interest to increase the sources of alternative fuels for aviation to get a reduction of their carbon footprint and the deep energetic dependence from fossil fuels of different countries. Although there are studies about how to produce this alternative fuel and how to accomplish the standards for a good performance in the aircraft turbines, there are no studies about how these fuels could affect the different materials of airplanes. In this context this work describes the compatibility of biokerosene blends of coconut, babassu and palm kernel with commercial Jet A-1 testing airplane polymeric materials, metals and composites. As a conclusion, all material samples show a good compatibility with the fuel blends tested.

Nuances matter: How fossil woody remains changed the interpretation of the vegetation in Iberia

Ejemplos de cómo los macrorrestos ayudan a mejorar la interpretación del paisaje vegetal de la península Ibérica

Holocene fossil woods from the Caldera de Taburiente National Park (Canary Islands, Spain)

The study of 39 Pinus canariensis Holocene fossil woods from the Caldera de Taburiente is presented

NDT to identify biological damage in wood

Nondestructive techniques are widely used to assess existing timber structures. The models proposed for these methods are usually performed in the laboratory using small clear wood specimens. But in real situations many anomalies, defects and biological damage are found in wood. In these cases the existing models only indicate that the values are outside normality without providing any other information. To solve this problem, a study of non-destructive probing methods for wood was performed, testing the behaviour of four different techniques (penetration resistance, pullout resistance, drill resistance and chip drill extraction) on wood samples with different biological damage, simulating an in-situ test. The wood samples were obtained from existing Spanish timber structures with biotic damage caused by borer insects, termites, brown rot and white rot. The study concludes that all of the methods offer more or less detailed information about the degree of deterioration of wood, but that the first two methods (penetration and pullout resistance) cannot distinguish between pathologies. On the other hand, drill resistance and chip drill extraction make it possible to differentiate pathologies and even to identify species or damage location. Finally, the techniques used were compared to characterize their advantages and disadvantages.