33 resultados para Bayesian hierarchical models
Resumo:
Along the recent years, several moving object detection strategies by non-parametric background-foreground modeling have been proposed. To combine both models and to obtain the probability of a pixel to belong to the foreground, these strategies make use of Bayesian classifiers. However, these classifiers do not allow to take advantage of additional prior information at different pixels. So, we propose a novel and efficient alternative Bayesian classifier that is suitable for this kind of strategies and that allows the use of whatever prior information. Additionally, we present an effective method to dynamically estimate prior probability from the result of a particle filter-based tracking strategy.
Resumo:
Bayesian network classifiers are a powerful machine learning tool. In order to evaluate the expressive power of these models, we compute families of polynomials that sign-represent decision functions induced by Bayesian network classifiers. We prove that those families are linear combinations of products of Lagrange basis polynomials. In absence of V-structures in the predictor sub-graph, we are also able to prove that this family of polynomials does in- deed characterize the specific classifier considered. We then use this representation to bound the number of decision functions representable by Bayesian network classifiers with a given structure and we compare these bounds to the ones obtained using Vapnik-Chervonenkis dimension.
Resumo:
Prediction at ungauged sites is essential for water resources planning and management. Ungauged sites have no observations about the magnitude of floods, but some site and basin characteristics are known. Regression models relate physiographic and climatic basin characteristics to flood quantiles, which can be estimated from observed data at gauged sites. However, these models assume linear relationships between variables Prediction intervals are estimated by the variance of the residuals in the estimated model. Furthermore, the effect of the uncertainties in the explanatory variables on the dependent variable cannot be assessed. This paper presents a methodology to propagate the uncertainties that arise in the process of predicting flood quantiles at ungauged basins by a regression model. In addition, Bayesian networks were explored as a feasible tool for predicting flood quantiles at ungauged sites. Bayesian networks benefit from taking into account uncertainties thanks to their probabilistic nature. They are able to capture non-linear relationships between variables and they give a probability distribution of discharges as result. The methodology was applied to a case study in the Tagus basin in Spain.
Resumo:
Electronic devices endowed with camera platforms require new and powerful machine vision applications, which commonly include moving object detection strategies. To obtain high-quality results, the most recent strategies estimate nonparametrically background and foreground models and combine them by means of a Bayesian classifier. However, typical classifiers are limited by the use of constant prior values and they do not allow the inclusion of additional spatiodependent prior information. In this Letter, we propose an alternative Bayesian classifier that, unlike those reported before, allows the use of additional prior information obtained from any source and depending on the spatial position of each pixel.
Resumo:
Los sistemas de seguimiento mono-cámara han demostrado su notable capacidad para el análisis de trajectorias de objectos móviles y para monitorización de escenas de interés; sin embargo, tanto su robustez como sus posibilidades en cuanto a comprensión semántica de la escena están fuertemente limitadas por su naturaleza local y monocular, lo que los hace insuficientes para aplicaciones realistas de videovigilancia. El objetivo de esta tesis es la extensión de las posibilidades de los sistemas de seguimiento de objetos móviles para lograr un mayor grado de robustez y comprensión de la escena. La extensión propuesta se divide en dos direcciones separadas. La primera puede considerarse local, ya que está orientada a la mejora y enriquecimiento de las posiciones estimadas para los objetos móviles observados directamente por las cámaras del sistema; dicha extensión se logra mediante el desarrollo de un sistema multi-cámara de seguimiento 3D, capaz de proporcionar consistentemente las posiciones 3D de múltiples objetos a partir de las observaciones capturadas por un conjunto de sensores calibrados y con campos de visión solapados. La segunda extensión puede considerarse global, dado que su objetivo consiste en proporcionar un contexto global para relacionar las observaciones locales realizadas por una cámara con una escena de mucho mayor tamaño; para ello se propone un sistema automático de localización de cámaras basado en las trayectorias observadas de varios objetos móviles y en un mapa esquemático de la escena global monitorizada. Ambas líneas de investigación se tratan utilizando, como marco común, técnicas de estimación bayesiana: esta elección está justificada por la versatilidad y flexibilidad proporcionada por dicho marco estadístico, que permite la combinación natural de múltiples fuentes de información sobre los parámetros a estimar, así como un tratamiento riguroso de la incertidumbre asociada a las mismas mediante la inclusión de modelos de observación específicamente diseñados. Además, el marco seleccionado abre grandes posibilidades operacionales, puesto que permite la creación de diferentes métodos numéricos adaptados a las necesidades y características específicas de distintos problemas tratados. El sistema de seguimiento 3D con múltiples cámaras propuesto está específicamente diseñado para permitir descripciones esquemáticas de las medidas realizadas individualmente por cada una de las cámaras del sistema: esta elección de diseño, por tanto, no asume ningún algoritmo específico de detección o seguimiento 2D en ninguno de los sensores de la red, y hace que el sistema propuesto sea aplicable a redes reales de vigilancia con capacidades limitadas tanto en términos de procesamiento como de transmision. La combinación robusta de las observaciones capturadas individualmente por las cámaras, ruidosas, incompletas y probablemente contaminadas por falsas detecciones, se basa en un metodo de asociación bayesiana basado en geometría y color: los resultados de dicha asociación permiten el seguimiento 3D de los objetos de la escena mediante el uso de un filtro de partículas. El sistema de fusión de observaciones propuesto tiene, como principales características, una gran precisión en términos de localización 3D de objetos, y una destacable capacidad de recuperación tras eventuales errores debidos a un número insuficiente de datos de entrada. El sistema automático de localización de cámaras se basa en la observación de múltiples objetos móviles y un mapa esquemático de las áreas transitables del entorno monitorizado para inferir la posición absoluta de dicho sensor. Para este propósito, se propone un novedoso marco bayesiano que combina modelos dinámicos inducidos por el mapa en los objetos móviles presentes en la escena con las trayectorias observadas por la cámara, lo que representa un enfoque nunca utilizado en la literatura existente. El sistema de localización se divide en dos sub-tareas diferenciadas, debido a que cada una de estas tareas requiere del diseño de algoritmos específicos de muestreo para explotar en profundidad las características del marco desarrollado: por un lado, análisis de la ambigüedad del caso específicamente tratado y estimación aproximada de la localización de la cámara, y por otro, refinado de la localización de la cámara. El sistema completo, diseñado y probado para el caso específico de localización de cámaras en entornos de tráfico urbano, podría tener aplicación también en otros entornos y sensores de diferentes modalidades tras ciertas adaptaciones. ABSTRACT Mono-camera tracking systems have proved their capabilities for moving object trajectory analysis and scene monitoring, but their robustness and semantic possibilities are strongly limited by their local and monocular nature and are often insufficient for realistic surveillance applications. This thesis is aimed at extending the possibilities of moving object tracking systems to a higher level of scene understanding. The proposed extension comprises two separate directions. The first one is local, since is aimed at enriching the inferred positions of the moving objects within the area of the monitored scene directly covered by the cameras of the system; this task is achieved through the development of a multi-camera system for robust 3D tracking, able to provide 3D tracking information of multiple simultaneous moving objects from the observations reported by a set of calibrated cameras with semi-overlapping fields of view. The second extension is global, as is aimed at providing local observations performed within the field of view of one camera with a global context relating them to a much larger scene; to this end, an automatic camera positioning system relying only on observed object trajectories and a scene map is designed. The two lines of research in this thesis are addressed using Bayesian estimation as a general unifying framework. Its suitability for these two applications is justified by the flexibility and versatility of that stochastic framework, which allows the combination of multiple sources of information about the parameters to estimate in a natural and elegant way, addressing at the same time the uncertainty associated to those sources through the inclusion of models designed to this end. In addition, it opens multiple possibilities for the creation of different numerical methods for achieving satisfactory and efficient practical solutions to each addressed application. The proposed multi-camera 3D tracking method is specifically designed to work on schematic descriptions of the observations performed by each camera of the system: this choice allows the use of unspecific off-the-shelf 2D detection and/or tracking subsystems running independently at each sensor, and makes the proposal suitable for real surveillance networks with moderate computational and transmission capabilities. The robust combination of such noisy, incomplete and possibly unreliable schematic descriptors relies on a Bayesian association method, based on geometry and color, whose results allow the tracking of the targets in the scene with a particle filter. The main features exhibited by the proposal are, first, a remarkable accuracy in terms of target 3D positioning, and second, a great recovery ability after tracking losses due to insufficient input data. The proposed system for visual-based camera self-positioning uses the observations of moving objects and a schematic map of the passable areas of the environment to infer the absolute sensor position. To this end, a new Bayesian framework combining trajectory observations and map-induced dynamic models for moving objects is designed, which represents an approach to camera positioning never addressed before in the literature. This task is divided into two different sub-tasks, setting ambiguity analysis and approximate position estimation, on the one hand, and position refining, on the other, since they require the design of specific sampling algorithms to correctly exploit the discriminative features of the developed framework. This system, designed for camera positioning and demonstrated in urban traffic environments, can also be applied to different environments and sensors of other modalities after certain required adaptations.
Resumo:
Bayesian network classifiers are a powerful machine learning tool. In order to evaluate the expressive power of these models, we compute families of polynomials that sign-represent decision functions induced by Bayesian network classifiers. We prove that those families are linear combinations of products of Lagrange basis polynomials. In absence of V-structures in the predictor sub-graph, we are also able to prove that this family of polynomials does in- deed characterize the specific classifier considered. We then use this representation to bound the number of decision functions representable by Bayesian network classifiers with a given structure and we compare these bounds to the ones obtained using Vapnik-Chervonenkis dimension.
Resumo:
Road accidents are a very relevant issue in many countries and macroeconomic models are very frequently applied by academia and administrations to reduce their frequency and consequences. The selection of explanatory variables and response transformation parameter within the Bayesian framework for the selection of the set of explanatory variables a TIM and 3IM (two input and three input models) procedures are proposed. The procedure also uses the DIC and pseudo -R2 goodness of fit criteria. The model to which the methodology is applied is a dynamic regression model with Box-Cox transformation (BCT) for the explanatory variables and autorgressive (AR) structure for the response. The initial set of 22 explanatory variables are identified. The effects of these factors on the fatal accident frequency in Spain, during 2000-2012, are estimated. The dependent variable is constructed considering the stochastic trend component.
Resumo:
Probabilistic graphical models are a huge research field in artificial intelligence nowadays. The scope of this work is the study of directed graphical models for the representation of discrete distributions. Two of the main research topics related to this area focus on performing inference over graphical models and on learning graphical models from data. Traditionally, the inference process and the learning process have been treated separately, but given that the learned models structure marks the inference complexity, this kind of strategies will sometimes produce very inefficient models. With the purpose of learning thinner models, in this master thesis we propose a new model for the representation of network polynomials, which we call polynomial trees. Polynomial trees are a complementary representation for Bayesian networks that allows an efficient evaluation of the inference complexity and provides a framework for exact inference. We also propose a set of methods for the incremental compilation of polynomial trees and an algorithm for learning polynomial trees from data using a greedy score+search method that includes the inference complexity as a penalization in the scoring function.
Resumo:
Bayesian network classifiers are widely used in machine learning because they intuitively represent causal relations. Multi-label classification problems require each instance to be assigned a subset of a defined set of h labels. This problem is equivalent to finding a multi-valued decision function that predicts a vector of h binary classes. In this paper we obtain the decision boundaries of two widely used Bayesian network approaches for building multi-label classifiers: Multi-label Bayesian network classifiers built using the binary relevance method and Bayesian network chain classifiers. We extend our previous single-label results to multi-label chain classifiers, and we prove that, as expected, chain classifiers provide a more expressive model than the binary relevance method.
Resumo:
The diversity of bibliometric indices today poses the challenge of exploiting the relationships among them. Our research uncovers the best core set of relevant indices for predicting other bibliometric indices. An added difficulty is to select the role of each variable, that is, which bibliometric indices are predictive variables and which are response variables. This results in a novel multioutput regression problem where the role of each variable (predictor or response) is unknown beforehand. We use Gaussian Bayesian networks to solve the this problem and discover multivariate relationships among bibliometric indices. These networks are learnt by a genetic algorithm that looks for the optimal models that best predict bibliometric data. Results show that the optimal induced Gaussian Bayesian networks corroborate previous relationships between several indices, but also suggest new, previously unreported interactions. An extended analysis of the best model illustrates that a set of 12 bibliometric indices can be accurately predicted using only a smaller predictive core subset composed of citations, g-index, q2-index, and hr-index. This research is performed using bibliometric data on Spanish full professors associated with the computer science area.
Resumo:
A novel GPU-based nonparametric moving object detection strategy for computer vision tools requiring real-time processing is proposed. An alternative and efficient Bayesian classifier to combine nonparametric background and foreground models allows increasing correct detections while avoiding false detections. Additionally, an efficient region of interest analysis significantly reduces the computational cost of the detections.
Resumo:
Bayesian networks are data mining models with clear semantics and a sound theoretical foundation. In this keynote talk we will pinpoint a number of neuroscience problems that can be addressed using Bayesian networks. In neuroanatomy, we will show computer simulation models of dendritic trees and classification of neuron types, both based on morphological features. In neurology, we will present the search for genetic biomarkers in Alzheimer's disease and the prediction of health-related quality of life in Parkinson's disease. Most of these challenging problems posed by neuroscience involve new Bayesian network designs that can cope with multiple class variables, small sample sizes, or labels annotated by several experts.
Resumo:
Los sistemas de seguimiento mono-cámara han demostrado su notable capacidad para el análisis de trajectorias de objectos móviles y para monitorización de escenas de interés; sin embargo, tanto su robustez como sus posibilidades en cuanto a comprensión semántica de la escena están fuertemente limitadas por su naturaleza local y monocular, lo que los hace insuficientes para aplicaciones realistas de videovigilancia. El objetivo de esta tesis es la extensión de las posibilidades de los sistemas de seguimiento de objetos móviles para lograr un mayor grado de robustez y comprensión de la escena. La extensión propuesta se divide en dos direcciones separadas. La primera puede considerarse local, ya que está orientada a la mejora y enriquecimiento de las posiciones estimadas para los objetos móviles observados directamente por las cámaras del sistema; dicha extensión se logra mediante el desarrollo de un sistema multi-cámara de seguimiento 3D, capaz de proporcionar consistentemente las posiciones 3D de múltiples objetos a partir de las observaciones capturadas por un conjunto de sensores calibrados y con campos de visión solapados. La segunda extensión puede considerarse global, dado que su objetivo consiste en proporcionar un contexto global para relacionar las observaciones locales realizadas por una cámara con una escena de mucho mayor tamaño; para ello se propone un sistema automático de localización de cámaras basado en las trayectorias observadas de varios objetos móviles y en un mapa esquemático de la escena global monitorizada. Ambas líneas de investigación se tratan utilizando, como marco común, técnicas de estimación bayesiana: esta elección está justificada por la versatilidad y flexibilidad proporcionada por dicho marco estadístico, que permite la combinación natural de múltiples fuentes de información sobre los parámetros a estimar, así como un tratamiento riguroso de la incertidumbre asociada a las mismas mediante la inclusión de modelos de observación específicamente diseñados. Además, el marco seleccionado abre grandes posibilidades operacionales, puesto que permite la creación de diferentes métodos numéricos adaptados a las necesidades y características específicas de distintos problemas tratados. El sistema de seguimiento 3D con múltiples cámaras propuesto está específicamente diseñado para permitir descripciones esquemáticas de las medidas realizadas individualmente por cada una de las cámaras del sistema: esta elección de diseño, por tanto, no asume ningún algoritmo específico de detección o seguimiento 2D en ninguno de los sensores de la red, y hace que el sistema propuesto sea aplicable a redes reales de vigilancia con capacidades limitadas tanto en términos de procesamiento como de transmision. La combinación robusta de las observaciones capturadas individualmente por las cámaras, ruidosas, incompletas y probablemente contaminadas por falsas detecciones, se basa en un metodo de asociación bayesiana basado en geometría y color: los resultados de dicha asociación permiten el seguimiento 3D de los objetos de la escena mediante el uso de un filtro de partículas. El sistema de fusión de observaciones propuesto tiene, como principales características, una gran precisión en términos de localización 3D de objetos, y una destacable capacidad de recuperación tras eventuales errores debidos a un número insuficiente de datos de entrada. El sistema automático de localización de cámaras se basa en la observación de múltiples objetos móviles y un mapa esquemático de las áreas transitables del entorno monitorizado para inferir la posición absoluta de dicho sensor. Para este propósito, se propone un novedoso marco bayesiano que combina modelos dinámicos inducidos por el mapa en los objetos móviles presentes en la escena con las trayectorias observadas por la cámara, lo que representa un enfoque nunca utilizado en la literatura existente. El sistema de localización se divide en dos sub-tareas diferenciadas, debido a que cada una de estas tareas requiere del diseño de algoritmos específicos de muestreo para explotar en profundidad las características del marco desarrollado: por un lado, análisis de la ambigüedad del caso específicamente tratado y estimación aproximada de la localización de la cámara, y por otro, refinado de la localización de la cámara. El sistema completo, diseñado y probado para el caso específico de localización de cámaras en entornos de tráfico urbano, podría tener aplicación también en otros entornos y sensores de diferentes modalidades tras ciertas adaptaciones. ABSTRACT Mono-camera tracking systems have proved their capabilities for moving object trajectory analysis and scene monitoring, but their robustness and semantic possibilities are strongly limited by their local and monocular nature and are often insufficient for realistic surveillance applications. This thesis is aimed at extending the possibilities of moving object tracking systems to a higher level of scene understanding. The proposed extension comprises two separate directions. The first one is local, since is aimed at enriching the inferred positions of the moving objects within the area of the monitored scene directly covered by the cameras of the system; this task is achieved through the development of a multi-camera system for robust 3D tracking, able to provide 3D tracking information of multiple simultaneous moving objects from the observations reported by a set of calibrated cameras with semi-overlapping fields of view. The second extension is global, as is aimed at providing local observations performed within the field of view of one camera with a global context relating them to a much larger scene; to this end, an automatic camera positioning system relying only on observed object trajectories and a scene map is designed. The two lines of research in this thesis are addressed using Bayesian estimation as a general unifying framework. Its suitability for these two applications is justified by the flexibility and versatility of that stochastic framework, which allows the combination of multiple sources of information about the parameters to estimate in a natural and elegant way, addressing at the same time the uncertainty associated to those sources through the inclusion of models designed to this end. In addition, it opens multiple possibilities for the creation of different numerical methods for achieving satisfactory and efficient practical solutions to each addressed application. The proposed multi-camera 3D tracking method is specifically designed to work on schematic descriptions of the observations performed by each camera of the system: this choice allows the use of unspecific off-the-shelf 2D detection and/or tracking subsystems running independently at each sensor, and makes the proposal suitable for real surveillance networks with moderate computational and transmission capabilities. The robust combination of such noisy, incomplete and possibly unreliable schematic descriptors relies on a Bayesian association method, based on geometry and color, whose results allow the tracking of the targets in the scene with a particle filter. The main features exhibited by the proposal are, first, a remarkable accuracy in terms of target 3D positioning, and second, a great recovery ability after tracking losses due to insufficient input data. The proposed system for visual-based camera self-positioning uses the observations of moving objects and a schematic map of the passable areas of the environment to infer the absolute sensor position. To this end, a new Bayesian framework combining trajectory observations and map-induced dynamic models for moving objects is designed, which represents an approach to camera positioning never addressed before in the literature. This task is divided into two different sub-tasks, setting ambiguity analysis and approximate position estimation, on the one hand, and position refining, on the other, since they require the design of specific sampling algorithms to correctly exploit the discriminative features of the developed framework. This system, designed for camera positioning and demonstrated in urban traffic environments, can also be applied to different environments and sensors of other modalities after certain required adaptations.
Resumo:
In this study we apply count data models to four integer–valued time series related to accidentality in Spanish roads applying both the frequentist and Bayesian approaches. The time series are: number of fatalities, number of fatal accidents, number of killed or seriously injured (KSI) and number of accidents with KSI. The model structure is Poisson regression with first order autoregressive errors. The purpose of the paper is first to sort out the explanatory variables by relevance and second to carry out a prediction exercise for validation.
Resumo:
En esta Tesis Doctoral se emplean y desarrollan Métodos Bayesianos para su aplicación en análisis geotécnicos habituales, con un énfasis particular en (i) la valoración y selección de modelos geotécnicos basados en correlaciones empíricas; en (ii) el desarrollo de predicciones acerca de los resultados esperados en modelos geotécnicos complejos. Se llevan a cabo diferentes aplicaciones a problemas geotécnicos, como es el caso de: (1) En el caso de rocas intactas, se presenta un método Bayesiano para la evaluación de modelos que permiten estimar el módulo de Young a partir de la resistencia a compresión simple (UCS). La metodología desarrollada suministra estimaciones de las incertidumbres de los parámetros y predicciones y es capaz de diferenciar entre las diferentes fuentes de error. Se desarrollan modelos "específicos de roca" para los tipos de roca más comunes y se muestra cómo se pueden "actualizar" esos modelos "iniciales" para incorporar, cuando se encuentra disponible, la nueva información específica del proyecto, reduciendo las incertidumbres del modelo y mejorando sus capacidades predictivas. (2) Para macizos rocosos, se presenta una metodología, fundamentada en un criterio de selección de modelos, que permite determinar el modelo más apropiado, entre un conjunto de candidatos, para estimar el módulo de deformación de un macizo rocoso a partir de un conjunto de datos observados. Una vez que se ha seleccionado el modelo más apropiado, se emplea un método Bayesiano para obtener distribuciones predictivas de los módulos de deformación de macizos rocosos y para actualizarlos con la nueva información específica del proyecto. Este método Bayesiano de actualización puede reducir significativamente la incertidumbre asociada a la predicción, y por lo tanto, afectar las estimaciones que se hagan de la probabilidad de fallo, lo cual es de un interés significativo para los diseños de mecánica de rocas basados en fiabilidad. (3) En las primeras etapas de los diseños de mecánica de rocas, la información acerca de los parámetros geomecánicos y geométricos, las tensiones in-situ o los parámetros de sostenimiento, es, a menudo, escasa o incompleta. Esto plantea dificultades para aplicar las correlaciones empíricas tradicionales que no pueden trabajar con información incompleta para realizar predicciones. Por lo tanto, se propone la utilización de una Red Bayesiana para trabajar con información incompleta y, en particular, se desarrolla un clasificador Naïve Bayes para predecir la probabilidad de ocurrencia de grandes deformaciones (squeezing) en un túnel a partir de cinco parámetros de entrada habitualmente disponibles, al menos parcialmente, en la etapa de diseño. This dissertation employs and develops Bayesian methods to be used in typical geotechnical analyses, with a particular emphasis on (i) the assessment and selection of geotechnical models based on empirical correlations; on (ii) the development of probabilistic predictions of outcomes expected for complex geotechnical models. Examples of application to geotechnical problems are developed, as follows: (1) For intact rocks, we present a Bayesian framework for model assessment to estimate the Young’s moduli based on their UCS. Our approach provides uncertainty estimates of parameters and predictions, and can differentiate among the sources of error. We develop ‘rock-specific’ models for common rock types, and illustrate that such ‘initial’ models can be ‘updated’ to incorporate new project-specific information as it becomes available, reducing model uncertainties and improving their predictive capabilities. (2) For rock masses, we present an approach, based on model selection criteria to select the most appropriate model, among a set of candidate models, to estimate the deformation modulus of a rock mass, given a set of observed data. Once the most appropriate model is selected, a Bayesian framework is employed to develop predictive distributions of the deformation moduli of rock masses, and to update them with new project-specific data. Such Bayesian updating approach can significantly reduce the associated predictive uncertainty, and therefore, affect our computed estimates of probability of failure, which is of significant interest to reliability-based rock engineering design. (3) In the preliminary design stage of rock engineering, the information about geomechanical and geometrical parameters, in situ stress or support parameters is often scarce or incomplete. This poses difficulties in applying traditional empirical correlations that cannot deal with incomplete data to make predictions. Therefore, we propose the use of Bayesian Networks to deal with incomplete data and, in particular, a Naïve Bayes classifier is developed to predict the probability of occurrence of tunnel squeezing based on five input parameters that are commonly available, at least partially, at design stages.