System failure prediction through rare-events elastic-net logistic regression

Predicting failures in a distributed system based on previous events through logistic regression is a standard approach in literature. This technique is not reliable, though, in two situations: in the prediction of rare events, which do not appear in enough proportion for the algorithm to capture, and in environments where there are too many variables, as logistic regression tends to overfit on this situations; while manually selecting a subset of variables to create the model is error- prone. On this paper, we solve an industrial research case that presented this situation with a combination of elastic net logistic regression, a method that allows us to automatically select useful variables, a process of cross-validation on top of it and the application of a rare events prediction technique to reduce computation time. This process provides two layers of cross- validation that automatically obtain the optimal model complexity and the optimal mode l parameters values, while ensuring even rare events will be correctly predicted with a low amount of training instances. We tested this method against real industrial data, obtaining a total of 60 out of 80 possible models with a 90% average model accuracy.

Building intuition of iron evolution during solar cell processing through analysis of different process models

An important aspect of Process Simulators for photovoltaics is prediction of defect evolution during device fabrication. Over the last twenty years, these tools have accelerated process optimization, and several Process Simulators for iron, a ubiquitous and deleterious impurity in silicon, have been developed. The diversity of these tools can make it difficult to build intuition about the physics governing iron behavior during processing. Thus, in one unified software environment and using self-consistent terminology, we combine and describe three of these Simulators. We vary structural defect distribution and iron precipitation equations to create eight distinct Models, which we then use to simulate different stages of processing. We find that the structural defect distribution influences the final interstitial iron concentration ([Fe-i]) more strongly than the iron precipitation equations. We identify two regimes of iron behavior: (1) diffusivity-limited, in which iron evolution is kinetically limited and bulk [Fe-i] predictions can vary by an order of magnitude or more, and (2) solubility-limited, in which iron evolution is near thermodynamic equilibrium and the Models yield similar results. This rigorous analysis provides new intuition that can inform Process Simulation, material, and process development, and it enables scientists and engineers to choose an appropriate level of Model complexity based on wafer type and quality, processing conditions, and available computation time.

Hybrid choice model for propensity to travel and tour complexity

During the last years cities around the world have invested important quantities of money in measures for reducing congestion and car-trips. Investments which are nothing but potential solutions for the well-known urban sprawl phenomenon, also called the “development trap” that leads to further congestion and a higher proportion of our time spent in slow moving cars. Over the path of this searching for solutions, the complex relationship between urban environment and travel behaviour has been studied in a number of cases. The main question on discussion is, how to encourage multi-stop tours? Thus, the objective of this paper is to verify whether unobserved factors influence tour complexity. For this purpose, we use a data-base from a survey conducted in 2006-2007 in Madrid, a suitable case study for analyzing urban sprawl due to new urban developments and substantial changes in mobility patterns in the last years. A total of 943 individuals were interviewed from 3 selected neighbourhoods (CBD, urban and suburban). We study the effect of unobserved factors on trip frequency. This paper present the estimation of an hybrid model where the latent variable is called propensity to travel and the discrete choice model is composed by 5 alternatives of tour type. The results show that characteristics of the neighbourhoods in Madrid are important to explain trip frequency. The influence of land use variables on trip generation is clear and in particular the presence of commercial retails. Through estimation of elasticities and forecasting we determine to what extent land-use policy measures modify travel demand. Comparing aggregate elasticities with percentage variations, it can be seen that percentage variations could lead to inconsistent results. The result shows that hybrid models better explain travel behavior than traditional discrete choice models.

Proposal of a three level complexity model for office automation

Office automation is one of the fields where the complexity related with technologies and working environments can be best shown. This is the starting point we have chosen to build up a theoretical model that shows us a scene quite different from the one traditionally considered. Through the development of the model, the levels of complexity associated with office automation and office environments have been identified, establishing a relationship between them. Thus, the model allows to state a general principle for sociotechnical design of office automation systems, comprising the ontological distinctions needed to properly evaluate each particular technology and its virtual contribution to office automation. From this fact comes the model's taxonomic ability to draw a global perspective of the state-of-art in office automation technologies.

Analysing the complexity of the model-based decision making processes within the industrial management context

PURPOSE The decision-making process plays a key role in organizations. Every decision-making process produces a final choice that may or may not prompt action. Recurrently, decision makers find themselves in the dichotomous question of following a traditional sequence decision-making process where the output of a decision is used as the input of the next stage of the decision, or following a joint decision-making approach where several decisions are taken simultaneously. The implication of the decision-making process will impact different players of the organization. The choice of the decision- making approach becomes difficult to find, even with the current literature and practitioners’ knowledge. The pursuit of better ways for making decisions has been a common goal for academics and practitioners. Management scientists use different techniques and approaches to improve different types of decisions. The purpose of this decision is to use the available resources as well as possible (data and techniques) to achieve the objectives of the organization. The developing and applying of models and concepts may be helpful to solve managerial problems faced every day in different companies. As a result of this research different decision models are presented to contribute to the body of knowledge of management science. The first models are focused on the manufacturing industry and the second part of the models on the health care industry. Despite these models being case specific, they serve the purpose of exemplifying that different approaches to the problems and could provide interesting results. Unfortunately, there is no universal recipe that could be applied to all the problems. Furthermore, the same model could deliver good results with certain data and bad results for other data. A framework to analyse the data before selecting the model to be used is presented and tested in the models developed to exemplify the ideas. METHODOLOGY As the first step of the research a systematic literature review on the joint decision is presented, as are the different opinions and suggestions of different scholars. For the next stage of the thesis, the decision-making process of more than 50 companies was analysed in companies from different sectors in the production planning area at the Job Shop level. The data was obtained using surveys and face-to-face interviews. The following part of the research into the decision-making process was held in two application fields that are highly relevant for our society; manufacturing and health care. The first step was to study the interactions and develop a mathematical model for the replenishment of the car assembly where the problem of “Vehicle routing problem and Inventory” were combined. The next step was to add the scheduling or car production (car sequencing) decision and use some metaheuristics such as ant colony and genetic algorithms to measure if the behaviour is kept up with different case size problems. A similar approach is presented in a production of semiconductors and aviation parts, where a hoist has to change from one station to another to deal with the work, and a jobs schedule has to be done. However, for this problem simulation was used for experimentation. In parallel, the scheduling of operating rooms was studied. Surgeries were allocated to surgeons and the scheduling of operating rooms was analysed. The first part of the research was done in a Teaching hospital, and for the second part the interaction of uncertainty was added. Once the previous problem had been analysed a general framework to characterize the instance was built. In the final chapter a general conclusion is presented. FINDINGS AND PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS The first part of the contributions is an update of the decision-making literature review. Also an analysis of the possible savings resulting from a change in the decision process is made. Then, the results of the survey, which present a lack of consistency between what the managers believe and the reality of the integration of their decisions. In the next stage of the thesis, a contribution to the body of knowledge of the operation research, with the joint solution of the replenishment, sequencing and inventory problem in the assembly line is made, together with a parallel work with the operating rooms scheduling where different solutions approaches are presented. In addition to the contribution of the solving methods, with the use of different techniques, the main contribution is the framework that is proposed to pre-evaluate the problem before thinking of the techniques to solve it. However, there is no straightforward answer as to whether it is better to have joint or sequential solutions. Following the proposed framework with the evaluation of factors such as the flexibility of the answer, the number of actors, and the tightness of the data, give us important hints as to the most suitable direction to take to tackle the problem. RESEARCH LIMITATIONS AND AVENUES FOR FUTURE RESEARCH In the first part of the work it was really complicated to calculate the possible savings of different projects, since in many papers these quantities are not reported or the impact is based on non-quantifiable benefits. The other issue is the confidentiality of many projects where the data cannot be presented. For the car assembly line problem more computational power would allow us to solve bigger instances. For the operation research problem there was a lack of historical data to perform a parallel analysis in the teaching hospital. In order to keep testing the decision framework it is necessary to keep applying more case studies in order to generalize the results and make them more evident and less ambiguous. The health care field offers great opportunities since despite the recent awareness of the need to improve the decision-making process there are many opportunities to improve. Another big difference with the automotive industry is that the last improvements are not spread among all the actors. Therefore, in the future this research will focus more on the collaboration between academia and the health care sector.

Intermittent pluri-sink model and the emergence of complex heterogeneity patterns: a simple paradigm for explaining complexity in soil chemical distributions

The spatial complexity of the distribution of organic matter, chemicals, nutrients, pollutants has been demonstrated to have multifractal nature (Kravchenco et al. [1]). This fact supports the possibility of existence of some emergent heterogeneity structure built under the evolution of the system. The aim of this note is providing a consistent explanation to the mentioned results via an extremely simple model.

A Model-Based Monitoring Architecture for Heterogeneous Enterprise Services and Information Systems

Runtime management of distributed information systems is a complex and costly activity. One of the main challenges that must be addressed is obtaining a complete and updated view of all the managed runtime resources. This article presents a monitoring architecture for heterogeneous and distributed information systems. It is composed of two elements: an information model and an agent infrastructure. The model negates the complexity and variability of these systems and enables the abstraction over non-relevant details. The infrastructure uses this information model to monitor and manage the modeled environment, performing and detecting changes in execution time. The agents infrastructure is further detailed and its components and the relationships between them are explained. Moreover, the proposal is validated through a set of agents that instrument the JEE Glassfish application server, paying special attention to support distributed configuration scenarios.

A three-dimensional dynamical model of Amundsenisen icefield, Svalbard.

Amundsenisen is an ice field, 80 km2 in area, located in Southern Spitsbergen, Svalbard. Radio-echo sounding measurements at 20 MHz show high intensity returns from a nearly flat basal reflector at four zones, all of them with ice thickness larger than 500m. These reflections suggest possible subglacial lakes. To determine whether basal liquid water is compatible with current pressure and temperature conditions, we aim at applying a thermo mechanical model with a free boundary at the bed defined as solution of a Stefan problem for the interface ice-subglaciallake. The complexity of the problem suggests the use of a bi-dimensional model, but this requires that well-defined flowlines across the zones with suspected subglacial lakes are available. We define these flow lines from the solution of a three-dimensional dynamical model, and this is the main goal of the present contribution. We apply a three-dimensional full-Stokes model of glacier dynamics to Amundsenisen icefield. We are mostly interested in the plateau zone of the icefield, so we introduce artificial vertical boundaries at the heads of the main outlet glaciers draining Amundsenisen. At these boundaries we set velocity boundary conditions. Velocities near the centres of the heads of the outlets are known from experimental measurements. The velocities at depth are calculated according to a SIA velocity-depth profile, and those at the rest of the transverse section are computed following Nye’s (1952) model. We select as southeastern boundary of the model domain an ice divide, where we set boundary conditions of zero horizontal velocities and zero vertical shear stresses. The upper boundary is a traction-free boundary. For the basal boundary conditions, on the zones of suspected subglacial lakes we set free-slip boundary conditions, while for the rest of the basal boundary we use a friction law linking the sliding velocity to the basal shear stress,in such a way that, contrary to the shallow ice approximation, the basal shear stress is not equal to the basal driving stress but rather part of the solution.

A Model of Emotion as Patterned Metacontrol

Adaptive systems use feedback as a key strategy to cope with uncertainty and change in their environments. The information fed back from the sensorimotor loop into the control architecture can be used to change different elements of the controller at four different levels: parameters of the control model, the control model itself, the functional organization of the agent and the functional components of the agent. The complexity of such a space of potential configurations is daunting. The only viable alternative for the agent ?in practical, economical, evolutionary terms? is the reduction of the dimensionality of the configuration space. This reduction is achieved both by functionalisation —or, to be more precise, by interface minimization— and by patterning, i.e. the selection among a predefined set of organisational configurations. This last analysis let us state the central problem of how autonomy emerges from the integration of the cognitive, emotional and autonomic systems in strict functional terms: autonomy is achieved by the closure of functional dependency. In this paper we will show a general model of how the emotional biological systems operate following this theoretical analysis and how this model is also of applicability to a wide spectrum of artificial systems.

Lempel-Ziv complexity in schizophrenia: A MEG study

Objective The neurodevelopmental–neurodegenerative debate is a basic issue in the field of the neuropathological basis of schizophrenia (SCH). Neurophysiological techniques have been scarcely involved in such debate, but nonlinear analysis methods may contribute to it. Methods Fifteen patients (age range 23–42 years) matching DSM IV-TR criteria for SCH, and 15 sex- and age-matched control subjects (age range 23–42 years) underwent a resting-state magnetoencephalographic evaluation and Lempel–Ziv complexity (LZC) scores were calculated. Results Regression analyses indicated that LZC values were strongly dependent on age. Complexity scores increased as a function of age in controls, while SCH patients exhibited a progressive reduction of LZC values. A logistic model including LZC scores, age and the interaction of both variables allowed the classification of patients and controls with high sensitivity and specificity. Conclusions Results demonstrated that SCH patients failed to follow the “normal” process of complexity increase as a function of age. In addition, SCH patients exhibited a significant reduction of complexity scores as a function of age, thus paralleling the pattern observed in neurodegenerative diseases. Significance Our results support the notion of a progressive defect in SCH, which does not contradict the existence of a basic neurodevelopmental alteration. Highlights ► Schizophrenic patients show higher complexity values as compared to controls. ► Schizophrenic patients showed a tendency to reduced complexity values as a function of age while controls showed the opposite tendency. ► The tendency observed in schizophrenic patients parallels the tendency observed in Alzheimer disease patients.

Estimation of the solubility parameters of model plant surfaces and agrochemicals: a valuable tool for understanding plant surface interactions

Background Most aerial plant parts are covered with a hydrophobic lipid-rich cuticle, which is the interface between the plant organs and the surrounding environment. Plant surfaces may have a high degree of hydrophobicity because of the combined effects of surface chemistry and roughness. The physical and chemical complexity of the plant cuticle limits the development of models that explain its internal structure and interactions with surface-applied agrochemicals. In this article we introduce a thermodynamic method for estimating the solubilities of model plant surface constituents and relating them to the effects of agrochemicals. Results Following the van Krevelen and Hoftyzer method, we calculated the solubility parameters of three model plant species and eight compounds that differ in hydrophobicity and polarity. In addition, intact tissues were examined by scanning electron microscopy and the surface free energy, polarity, solubility parameter and work of adhesion of each were calculated from contact angle measurements of three liquids with different polarities. By comparing the affinities between plant surface constituents and agrochemicals derived from (a) theoretical calculations and (b) contact angle measurements we were able to distinguish the physical effect of surface roughness from the effect of the chemical nature of the epicuticular waxes. A solubility parameter model for plant surfaces is proposed on the basis of an increasing gradient from the cuticular surface towards the underlying cell wall. Conclusions The procedure enabled us to predict the interactions among agrochemicals, plant surfaces, and cuticular and cell wall components, and promises to be a useful tool for improving our understanding of biological surface interactions.

A Model of Emotion as Patterned Metacontrol

Adaptive agents use feedback as a key strategy to cope with un- certainty and change in their environments. The information fed back from the sensorimotor loop into the control subsystem can be used to change four different elements of the controller: parameters associated to the control model, the control model itself, the functional organization of the agent and the functional realization of the agent. There are many change alternatives and hence the complexity of the agent’s space of potential configurations is daunting. The only viable alternative for space- and time-constrained agents —in practical, economical, evolutionary terms— is to achieve a reduction of the dimensionality of this configuration space. Emotions play a critical role in this reduction. The reduction is achieved by func- tionalization, interface minimization and by patterning, i.e. by selection among a predefined set of organizational configurations. This analysis lets us state how autonomy emerges from the integration of cognitive, emotional and autonomic systems in strict functional terms: autonomy is achieved by the closure of functional dependency. Emotion-based morphofunctional systems are able to exhibit complex adaptation patterns at a reduced cognitive cost. In this article we show a general model of how emotion supports functional adaptation and how the emotional biological systems operate following this theoretical model. We will also show how this model is also of applicability to the construction of a wide spectrum of artificial systems1.

Estimation of the solubility parameters of model plant surfaces and agrochemicals: a valuable tool for understanding plant surface interactions

Background Most aerial plant parts are covered with a hydrophobic lipid-rich cuticle, which is the interface between the plant organs and the surrounding environment. Plant surfaces may have a high degree of hydrophobicity because of the combined effects of surface chemistry and roughness. The physical and chemical complexity of the plant cuticle limits the development of models that explain its internal structure and interactions with surface-applied agrochemicals. In this article we introduce a thermodynamic method for estimating the solubilities of model plant surface constituents and relating them to the effects of agrochemicals. Results Following the van Krevelen and Hoftyzer method, we calculated the solubility parameters of three model plant species and eight compounds that differ in hydrophobicity and polarity. In addition, intact tissues were examined by scanning electron microscopy and the surface free energy, polarity, solubility parameter and work of adhesion of each were calculated from contact angle measurements of three liquids with different polarities. By comparing the affinities between plant surface constituents and agrochemicals derived from (a) theoretical calculations and (b) contact angle measurements we were able to distinguish the physical effect of surface roughness from the effect of the chemical nature of the epicuticular waxes. A solubility parameter model for plant surfaces is proposed on the basis of an increasing gradient from the cuticular surface towards the underlying cell wall. Conclusions The procedure enabled us to predict the interactions among agrochemicals, plant surfaces, and cuticular and cell wall components, and promises to be a useful tool for improving our understanding of biological surface interactions.

O'CIAO an object oriented programming model using CIAO Prolog

There have been several previous proposals for the integration of Object Oriented Programming features into Logic Programming, resulting in much support theory and several language proposals. However, none of these proposals seem to have made it into the mainstream. Perhaps one of the reasons for these is that the resulting languages depart too much from the standard logic programming languages to entice the average Prolog programmer. Another reason may be that most of what can be done with object-oriented programming can already be done in Prolog through the meta- and higher-order programming facilities that the language includes, albeit sometimes in a more cumbersome way. In light of this, in this paper we propose an alternative solution which is driven by two main objectives. The first one is to include only those characteristics of object-oriented programming which are cumbersome to implement in standard Prolog systems. The second one is to do this in such a way that there is minimum impact on the syntax and complexity of the language, i.e., to introduce the minimum number of new constructs, declarations, and concepts to be learned. Finally, we would like the implementation to be as straightforward as possible, ideally based on simple source to source expansions.

On the complexity of radiation models for PV energy production calculation

Several authors have analysed the changes of the probability density function of the solar radiation with different time resolutions. Some others have approached to study the significance of these changes when produced energy calculations are attempted. We have undertaken different transformations to four Spanish databases in order to clarify the interrelationship between radiation models and produced energy estimations. Our contribution is straightforward: the complexity of a solar radiation model needed for yearly energy calculations, is very low. Twelve values of monthly mean of solar radiation are enough to estimate energy with errors below 3%. Time resolutions better than hourly samples do not improve significantly the result of energy estimations.