A speech interface for air traffic control terminals

Several issues concerning the current use of speech interfaces are discussed and the design and development of a speech interface that enables air traffic controllers to command and control their terminals by voice is presented. A special emphasis is made in the comparison between laboratory experiments and field experiments in which a set of ergonomics-related effects are detected that cannot be observed in the controlled laboratory experiments. The paper presents both objective and subjective performance obtained in field evaluation of the system with student controllers at an air traffic control (ATC) training facility. The system exhibits high word recognition test rates (0.4% error in Spanish and 1.5% in English) and low command error (6% error in Spanish and 10.6% error in English in the field tests). Subjective impression has also been positive, encouraging future development and integration phases in the Spanish ATC terminals designed by Aeropuertos Españoles y Navegación Aérea (AENA).

Contributions to trajectory prediction theory and its application to arrival management for air traffic control

La gestión del tráfico aéreo (Air Traffic Management, ATM) está experimentando un cambio de paradigma hacia las denominadas operaciones basadas trayectoria. Bajo dicho paradigma se modifica el papel de los controladores de tráfico aéreo desde una operativa basada su intervención táctica continuada hacia una labor de supervisión a más largo plazo. Esto se apoya en la creciente confianza en las soluciones aportadas por las herramientas automatizadas de soporte a la decisión más modernas. Para dar soporte a este concepto, se precisa una importante inversión para el desarrollo, junto con la adquisición de nuevos equipos en tierra y embarcados, que permitan la sincronización precisa de la visión de la trayectoria, basada en el intercambio de información entre ambos actores. Durante los últimos 30 a 40 años las aerolíneas han generado uno de los menores retornos de la inversión de entre todas las industrias. Sin beneficios tangibles, la industria aérea tiene dificultades para atraer el capital requerido para su modernización, lo que retrasa la implantación de dichas mejoras. Esta tesis tiene como objetivo responder a la pregunta de si las capacidades actualmente instaladas en las aeronaves comerciales se pueden aplicar para lograr la sincronización de la trayectoria con el nivel de calidad requerido. Además, se analiza en ella si, conjuntamente con mejoras en las herramientas de predicción trayectorias instaladas en tierra en para facilitar la gestión de las arribadas, dichas capacidades permiten obtener los beneficios esperados en el marco de las operaciones basadas en trayectoria. Esto podría proporcionar un incentivo para futuras actualizaciones de la aviónica que podrían llevar a mejoras adicionales. El concepto operacional propuesto en esta tesis tiene como objetivo permitir que los aviones sean pilotados de una manera consistente con las técnicas actuales de vuelo optimizado. Se permite a las aeronaves que desciendan en el denominado “modo de ángulo de descenso gestionado” (path-managed mode), que es el preferido por la mayoría de las compañías aéreas, debido a que conlleva un reducido consumo de combustible. El problema de este modo es que en él no se controla de forma activa el tiempo de llegada al punto de interés. En nuestro concepto operacional, la incertidumbre temporal se gestiona en mediante de la medición del tiempo en puntos estratégicamente escogidos a lo largo de la trayectoria de la aeronave, y permitiendo la modificación por el control de tierra de la velocidad de la aeronave. Aunque la base del concepto es la gestión de las ordenes de velocidad que se proporcionan al piloto, para ser capaces de operar con los niveles de equipamiento típicos actualmente, dicho concepto también constituye un marco en el que la aviónica más avanzada (por ejemplo, que permita el control por el FMS del tiempo de llegada) puede integrarse de forma natural, una vez que esta tecnología este instalada. Además de gestionar la incertidumbre temporal a través de la medición en múltiples puntos, se intenta reducir dicha incertidumbre al mínimo mediante la mejora de las herramienta de predicción de la trayectoria en tierra. En esta tesis se presenta una novedosa descomposición del proceso de predicción de trayectorias en dos etapas. Dicha descomposición permite integrar adecuadamente los datos de la trayectoria de referencia calculada por el Flight Management System (FMS), disponibles usando Futuro Sistema de Navegación Aérea (FANS), en el sistema de predicción de trayectorias en tierra. FANS es un equipo presente en los aviones comerciales de fuselaje ancho actualmente en la producción, e incluso algunos aviones de fuselaje estrecho pueden tener instalada avionica FANS. Además de informar automáticamente de la posición de la aeronave, FANS permite proporcionar (parte de) la trayectoria de referencia en poder de los FMS, pero la explotación de esta capacidad para la mejora de la predicción de trayectorias no se ha estudiado en profundidad en el pasado. La predicción en dos etapas proporciona una solución adecuada al problema de sincronización de trayectorias aire-tierra dado que permite la sincronización de las dimensiones controladas por el sistema de guiado utilizando la información de la trayectoria de referencia proporcionada mediante FANS, y también facilita la mejora en la predicción de las dimensiones abiertas restantes usado un modelo del guiado que explota los modelos meteorológicos mejorados disponibles en tierra. Este proceso de predicción de la trayectoria de dos etapas se aplicó a una muestra de 438 vuelos reales que realizaron un descenso continuo (sin intervención del controlador) con destino Melbourne. Dichos vuelos son de aeronaves del modelo Boeing 737-800, si bien la metodología descrita es extrapolable a otros tipos de aeronave. El método propuesto de predicción de trayectorias permite una mejora en la desviación estándar del error de la estimación del tiempo de llegada al punto de interés, que es un 30% menor que la que obtiene el FMS. Dicha trayectoria prevista mejorada se puede utilizar para establecer la secuencia de arribadas y para la asignación de las franjas horarias para cada aterrizaje (slots). Sobre la base del slot asignado, se determina un perfil de velocidades que permita cumplir con dicho slot con un impacto mínimo en la eficiencia del vuelo. En la tesis se propone un nuevo algoritmo que determina las velocidades requeridas sin necesidad de un proceso iterativo de búsqueda sobre el sistema de predicción de trayectorias. El algoritmo se basa en una parametrización inteligente del proceso de predicción de la trayectoria, que permite relacionar el tiempo estimado de llegada con una función polinómica. Resolviendo dicho polinomio para el tiempo de llegada deseado, se obtiene de forma natural el perfil de velocidades optimo para cumplir con dicho tiempo de llegada sin comprometer la eficiencia. El diseño de los sistemas de gestión de arribadas propuesto en esta tesis aprovecha la aviónica y los sistemas de comunicación instalados de un modo mucho más eficiente, proporcionando valor añadido para la industria. Por tanto, la solución es compatible con la transición hacia los sistemas de aviónica avanzados que están desarrollándose actualmente. Los beneficios que se obtengan a lo largo de dicha transición son un incentivo para inversiones subsiguientes en la aviónica y en los sistemas de control de tráfico en tierra. ABSTRACT Air traffic management (ATM) is undergoing a paradigm shift towards trajectory based operations where the role of an air traffic controller evolves from that of continuous intervention towards supervision, as decision making is improved based on increased confidence in the solutions provided by advanced automation. To support this concept, significant investment for the development and acquisition of new equipment is required on the ground as well as in the air, to facilitate the high degree of trajectory synchronisation and information exchange required. Over the past 30-40 years the airline industry has generated one of the lowest returns on invested capital among all industries. Without tangible benefits realised, the airline industry may find it difficult to attract the required investment capital and delay acquiring equipment needed to realise the concept of trajectory based operations. In response to these challenges facing the modernisation of ATM, this thesis aims to answer the question whether existing aircraft capabilities can be applied to achieve sufficient trajectory synchronisation and improvements to ground-based trajectory prediction in support of the arrival management process, to realise some of the benefits envisioned under trajectory based operations, and to provide an incentive for further avionics upgrades. The proposed operational concept aims to permit aircraft to operate in a manner consistent with current optimal aircraft operating techniques. It allows aircraft to descend in the fuel efficient path managed mode as preferred by a majority of airlines, with arrival time not actively controlled by the airborne automation. The temporal uncertainty is managed through metering at strategically chosen points along the aircraft’s trajectory with primary use of speed advisories. While the focus is on speed advisories to support all aircraft and different levels of equipage, the concept also constitutes a framework in which advanced avionics as airborne time-of-arrival control can be integrated once this technology is widely available. In addition to managing temporal uncertainty through metering at multiple points, this temporal uncertainty is minimised by improving the supporting trajectory prediction capability. A novel two-stage trajectory prediction process is presented to adequately integrate aircraft trajectory data available through Future Air Navigation Systems (FANS) into the ground-based trajectory predictor. FANS is standard equipment on any wide-body aircraft in production today, and some single-aisle aircraft are easily capable of being fitted with FANS. In addition to automatic position reporting, FANS provides the ability to provide (part of) the reference trajectory held by the aircraft’s Flight Management System (FMS), but this capability has yet been widely overlooked. The two-stage process provides a ‘best of both world’s’ solution to the air-ground synchronisation problem by synchronising with the FMS reference trajectory those dimensions controlled by the guidance mode, and improving on the prediction of the remaining open dimensions by exploiting the high resolution meteorological forecast available to a ground-based system. The two-stage trajectory prediction process was applied to a sample of 438 FANS-equipped Boeing 737-800 flights into Melbourne conducting a continuous descent free from ATC intervention, and can be extrapolated to other types of aircraft. Trajectories predicted through the two-stage approach provided estimated time of arrivals with a 30% reduction in standard deviation of the error compared to estimated time of arrival calculated by the FMS. This improved predicted trajectory can subsequently be used to set the sequence and allocate landing slots. Based on the allocated landing slot, the proposed system calculates a speed schedule for the aircraft to meet this landing slot at minimal flight efficiency impact. A novel algorithm is presented that determines this speed schedule without requiring an iterative process in which multiple calls to a trajectory predictor need to be made. The algorithm is based on parameterisation of the trajectory prediction process, allowing the estimate time of arrival to be represented by a polynomial function of the speed schedule, providing an analytical solution to the speed schedule required to meet a set arrival time. The arrival management solution proposed in this thesis leverages the use of existing avionics and communications systems resulting in new value for industry for current investment. The solution therefore supports a transition concept from mixed equipage towards advanced avionics currently under development. Benefits realised under this transition may provide an incentive for ongoing investment in avionics.

Sustainable Air Traffic Management System Development Methodology

As it is defined in ATM 2000+ Strategy (Eurocontrol 2001), the mission of the Air Traffic Management (ATM) System is: “For all the phases of a flight, the ATM system should facilitate a safe, efficient, and expedite traffic flow, through the provision of adaptable ATM services that can be dimensioned in relation to the requirements of all the users and areas of the European air space. The ATM services should comply with the demand, be compatible, operate under uniform principles, respect the environment and satisfy the national security requirements.” The objective of this paper is to present a methodology designed to evaluate the status of the ATM system in terms of the relationship between the offered capacity and traffic demand, identifying weakness areas and proposing solutions. The first part of the methodology relates to the characterization and evaluation of the current system, while a second part proposes an approach to analyze the possible development limit. As part of the work, general criteria are established to define the framework in which the analysis and diagnostic methodology presented is placed. They are: the use of Air Traffic Control (ATC) sectors as analysis unit, the presence of network effects, the tactical focus, the relative character of the analysis, objectivity and a high level assessment that allows assumptions on the human and Communications, Navigation and Surveillance (CNS) elements, considered as the typical high density air traffic resources. The steps followed by the methodology start with the definition of indicators and metrics, like the nominal criticality or the nominal efficiency of a sector; scenario characterization where the necessary data is collected; network effects analysis to study the relations among the constitutive elements of the ATC system; diagnostic by means of the “System Status Diagram”; analytical study of the ATC system development limit; and finally, formulation of conclusions and proposal for improvement. This methodology was employed by Aena (Spanish Airports Manager and Air Navigation Service Provider) and INECO (Spanish Transport Engineering Company) in the analysis of the Spanish ATM System in the frame of the Spanish airspace capacity sustainability program, although it could be applied elsewhere.

Using aircraft as wind sensors for estimating accurate wind fields for air traffic management applications

A study which examines the use of aircraft as wind sensors in a terminal area for real-time wind estimation in order to improve aircraft trajectory prediction is presented in this paper. We describe not only different sources in the aircraft systems that provide the variables needed to derivate the wind velocity but the capabilities which allow us to present this information for ATM Applications. Based on wind speed samples from aircraft landing at Madrid-Barajas airport, a real-time wind field will be estimated using a data processing approach through a minimum variance method. Finally the accuracy of this procedure will be evaluated for this information to be useful to Air Traffic Control.

Commonalities between networking in multiplayer computer games and negotiation processes in a future multi-layered Air Traffic Management (ATM) system

First, this paper describes a future layered Air Traffic Management (ATM) system centred in the execution phase of flights. The layered ATM model is based on the work currently performed by SESAR [1] and takes into account the availability of accurate and updated flight information ?seen by all? across the European airspace. This shared information of each flight will be referred as Reference Business Trajectory (RBT). In the layered ATM system, exchanges of information will involve several actors (human or automatic), which will have varying time horizons, areas of responsibility and tasks. Second, the paper will identify the need to define the negotiation processes required to agree revisions to the RBT in the layered ATM system. Third, the final objective of the paper is to bring to the attention of researchers and engineers the communalities between multi-player games and Collaborative Decision Making processes (CDM) in a layered ATM system

Air Traffic Management - Historic background and present situation

Ponencia invitada sobre gestion de trafico aereo en el curso de verano de la UPM Research in Decision Support Systems for future Air Traffic Management

Agent-based modeling and simulation for the design of the future european Air Traffic Management system: the experience of CASSIOPEIA

The SESAR (Single European Sky ATM Research) program is an ambitious re-search and development initiative to design the future European air traffic man-agement (ATM) system. The study of the behavior of ATM systems using agent-based modeling and simulation tools can help the development of new methods to improve their performance. This paper presents an overview of existing agent-based approaches in air transportation (paying special attention to the challenges that exist for the design of future ATM systems) and, subsequently, describes a new agent-based approach that we proposed in the CASSIOPEIA project, which was developed according to the goals of the SESAR program. In our approach, we use agent models for different ATM stakeholders, and, in contrast to previous work, our solution models new collaborative decision processes for flow traffic management, it uses an intermediate level of abstraction (useful for simulations at larger scales), and was designed to be a practical tool (open and reusable) for the development of different ATM studies. It was successfully applied in three stud-ies related to the design of future ATM systems in Europe.

An agent-based approach for the design of the future european air traffic management system

This paper describes an agent-based approach for the simulation of air traffic management (ATM) in Europe that was designed to help analyze proposals for future ATM systems. This approach is able to represent new collaborative deci-sion processes for flow traffic management, it uses an intermediate level of ab-straction (useful for simulations at larger scales), and was designed to be a practi-cal tool (open and reusable) for the development of different ATM studies. It was successfully applied in three studies related to the design of future ATM systems in Europe.

A Structure of Problem Solving Methods for Real Time Decision Support in Traffic Control

This article describes a knowledge-based application in the domain of road traffic management that we have developed following a knowledge modeling approach and the notion of problem-solving method. The article presents first a domain-independent model for real-time decision support as a structured collection of problem solving methods. Then, it is described how this general model is used to develop an operational version for the domain of traffic management. For this purpose, a particular knowledge modeling tool, called KSM (Knowledge Structure Manager), was applied. Finally, the article shows an application developed for a traffic network of the city of Madrid and it is compared with a second application developed for a different traffic area of the city of Barcelona.

Automatic Understanding of ATC Speech: Study of Prospectives and Field Experiments for Several Controller Positions

Although there has been a lot of interest in recognizing and understanding air traffic control (ATC) speech, none of the published works have obtained detailed field data results. We have developed a system able to identify the language spoken and recognize and understand sentences in both Spanish and English. We also present field results for several in-tower controller positions. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that field ATC speech (not simulated) is captured, processed, and analyzed. The use of stochastic grammars allows variations in the standard phraseology that appear in field data. The robust understanding algorithm developed has 95% concept accuracy from ATC text input. It also allows changes in the presentation order of the concepts and the correction of errors created by the speech recognition engine improving it by 17% and 25%, respectively, absolute in the percentage of fully correctly understood sentences for English and Spanish in relation to the percentages of fully correctly recognized sentences. The analysis of errors due to the spontaneity of the speech and its comparison to read speech is also carried out. A 96% word accuracy for read speech is reduced to 86% word accuracy for field ATC data for Spanish for the "clearances" task confirming that field data is needed to estimate the performance of a system. A literature review and a critical discussion on the possibilities of speech recognition and understanding technology applied to ATC speech are also given.

Generic multisensor multitarget bias estimation architecture

Current bias estimation algorithms for air traffic control (ATC) surveillance are focused on radar sensors, but the integration of new sensors (especially automatic dependent surveillance-broadcast and wide area multilateration) demands the extension of traditional procedures. This study describes a generic architecture for bias estimation applicable to multisensor multitarget surveillance systems. It consists on first performing bias estimations using measurements from each target, of a subset of sensors, assumed to be reliable, forming track bias estimations. All track bias estimations are combined to obtain, for each of those sensors, the corresponding sensor bias. Then, sensor bias terms are corrected, to subsequently calculate the target or sensor-target pair specific biases. Once these target-specific biases are corrected, the process is repeated recursively for other sets of less reliable sensors, assuming bias corrected measures from previous iterations are unbiased. This study describes the architecture and outlines the methodology for the estimation and the bias estimation design processes. Then the approach is validated through simulation, and compared with previous methods in the literature. Finally, the study describes the application of the methodology to the design of the bias estimation procedures for a modern ATC surveillance application, specifically for off-line assessment of ATC surveillance performance.

Understanding time-drift for different aircraft descent guidance strategies

In this paper the effect of different aircraft automated descent guidance strategies on fuel burn and the temporal predictability of the executed trajectory is investigated. The paper aims to provide an understanding of how airborne automation can be permitted by Air Traffic Control to remain in control of the descent in the presence of disturbances while providing sufficient predictability. Simulations have been performed investigating different guidance strategies. While each strategy has its advantages and disadvantages, results indicate that improved temporal predictability comes at the cost of additional fuel burn and loss of predictability in other dimensions of the trajectory.

Efficient speed advisories for multi-stage-metering arrival management

This paper presents a methodology and algorithm for Air Traffic Control (ATC) to efficiently achieve schedules arrival times through speed control in the presence of uncertainty. The methodology does not assume the availability of airborne time of arrival control and can therefore be applied to legacy aircraft. The speed advisories are calculated in a manner that allows for sufficient control margin to, if required, adjust the aircraft's trajectory at a later stage to correct for estimated arrival time drift at the lowest impact to efficiency. The methodology is therefore envisioned to prevent major last-minute interventions and instead assists ATC in allowing more continuous descent approaches to be conducted by aircraft leading to more efficient operations.

Real-time determination of airspace wind speed field based on FDR = Determinación en tiempo real del campo de velocidad del viento basado en registradores de datos de vuelo

El estudio del comportamiento de la atmósfera ha resultado de especial importancia tanto en el programa SESAR como en NextGen, en los que la gestión actual del tránsito aéreo (ATM) está experimentando una profunda transformación hacia nuevos paradigmas tanto en Europa como en los EE.UU., respectivamente, para el guiado y seguimiento de las aeronaves en la realización de rutas más eficientes y con mayor precisión. La incertidumbre es una característica fundamental de los fenómenos meteorológicos que se transfiere a la separación de las aeronaves, las trayectorias de vuelo libres de conflictos y a la planificación de vuelos. En este sentido, el viento es un factor clave en cuanto a la predicción de la futura posición de la aeronave, por lo que tener un conocimiento más profundo y preciso de campo de viento reducirá las incertidumbres del ATC. El objetivo de esta tesis es el desarrollo de una nueva técnica operativa y útil destinada a proporcionar de forma adecuada y directa el campo de viento atmosférico en tiempo real, basada en datos de a bordo de la aeronave, con el fin de mejorar la predicción de las trayectorias de las aeronaves. Para lograr este objetivo se ha realizado el siguiente trabajo. Se han descrito y analizado los diferentes sistemas de la aeronave que proporcionan las variables necesarias para obtener la velocidad del viento, así como de las capacidades que permiten la presentación de esta información para sus aplicaciones en la gestión del tráfico aéreo. Se ha explorado el uso de aeronaves como los sensores de viento en un área terminal para la estimación del viento en tiempo real con el fin de mejorar la predicción de las trayectorias de aeronaves. Se han desarrollado métodos computacionalmente eficientes para estimar las componentes horizontales de la velocidad del viento a partir de las velocidades de las aeronaves (VGS, VCAS/VTAS), la presión y datos de temperatura. Estos datos de viento se han utilizado para estimar el campo de viento en tiempo real utilizando un sistema de procesamiento de datos a través de un método de mínima varianza. Por último, se ha evaluado la exactitud de este procedimiento para que esta información sea útil para el control del tráfico aéreo. La información inicial proviene de una muestra de datos de Registradores de Datos de Vuelo (FDR) de aviones que aterrizaron en el aeropuerto Madrid-Barajas. Se dispuso de datos de ciertas aeronaves durante un periodo de más de tres meses que se emplearon para calcular el vector viento en cada punto del espacio aéreo. Se utilizó un modelo matemático basado en diferentes métodos de interpolación para obtener los vectores de viento en áreas sin datos disponibles. Se han utilizado tres escenarios concretos para validar dos métodos de interpolación: uno de dos dimensiones que trabaja con ambas componentes horizontales de forma independiente, y otro basado en el uso de una variable compleja que relaciona ambas componentes. Esos métodos se han probado en diferentes escenarios con resultados dispares. Esta metodología se ha aplicado en un prototipo de herramienta en MATLAB © para analizar automáticamente los datos de FDR y determinar el campo vectorial del viento que encuentra la aeronave al volar en el espacio aéreo en estudio. Finalmente se han obtenido las condiciones requeridas y la precisión de los resultados para este modelo. El método desarrollado podría utilizar los datos de los aviones comerciales como inputs utilizando los datos actualmente disponibles y la capacidad computacional, para proporcionárselos a los sistemas ATM donde se podría ejecutar el método propuesto. Estas velocidades del viento calculadas, o bien la velocidad respecto al suelo y la velocidad verdadera, se podrían difundir, por ejemplo, a través del sistema de direccionamiento e informe para comunicaciones de aeronaves (ACARS), mensajes de ADS-B o Modo S. Esta nueva fuente ayudaría a actualizar la información del viento suministrada en los productos aeronáuticos meteorológicos (PAM), informes meteorológicos de aeródromos (AIRMET), e información meteorológica significativa (SIGMET). ABSTRACT The study of the atmosphere behaviour is been of particular importance both in SESAR and NextGen programs, where the current air traffic management (ATM) system is undergoing a profound transformation to the new paradigms both in Europe and the USA, respectively, to guide and track aircraft more precisely on more efficient routes. Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather phenomena which is transferred to separation assurance, flight path de-confliction and flight planning applications. In this respect, the wind is a key factor regarding the prediction of the future position of the aircraft, so that having a deeper and accurate knowledge of wind field will reduce ATC uncertainties. The purpose of this thesis is to develop a new and operationally useful technique intended to provide adequate and direct real-time atmospheric winds fields based on on-board aircraft data, in order to improve aircraft trajectory prediction. In order to achieve this objective the following work has been accomplished. The different sources in the aircraft systems that provide the variables needed to derivate the wind velocity have been described and analysed, as well as the capabilities which allow presenting this information for air traffic management applications. The use of aircraft as wind sensors in a terminal area for real-time wind estimation in order to improve aircraft trajectory prediction has been explored. Computationally efficient methods have been developed to estimate horizontal wind components from aircraft velocities (VGS, VCAS/VTAS), pressure, and temperature data. These wind data were utilized to estimate a real-time wind field using a data processing approach through a minimum variance method. Finally, the accuracy of this procedure has been evaluated for this information to be useful to air traffic control. The initial information comes from a Flight Data Recorder (FDR) sample of aircraft landing in Madrid-Barajas Airport. Data available for more than three months were exploited in order to derive the wind vector field in each point of the airspace. Mathematical model based on different interpolation methods were used in order to obtain wind vectors in void areas. Three particular scenarios were employed to test two interpolation methods: a two-dimensional one that works with both horizontal components in an independent way, and also a complex variable formulation that links both components. Those methods were tested using various scenarios with dissimilar results. This methodology has been implemented in a prototype tool in MATLAB © in order to automatically analyse FDR and determine the wind vector field that aircraft encounter when flying in the studied airspace. Required conditions and accuracy of the results were derived for this model. The method developed could be fed by commercial aircraft utilizing their currently available data sources and computational capabilities, and providing them to ATM system where the proposed method could be run. Computed wind velocities, or ground and true airspeeds, would then be broadcasted, for example, via the Aircraft Communication Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS), ADS-B out messages, or Mode S. This new source would help updating the wind information furnished in meteorological aeronautical products (PAM), meteorological aerodrome reports (AIRMET), and significant meteorological information (SIGMET).

Desarrollo de un modelo de riesgo de colisión en espacios aéreos de área terminal

El transporte aéreo es un sector estratégico para el crecimiento económico de cualquier país. La estabilidad y el desarrollo de este modo de transporte tienen un pilar fundamental en una operación segura, especialmente cuando las previsiones indican escenarios de crecimiento continuo del tráfico aéreo. La estimación del riesgo y, por tanto, del nivel de seguridad de un entorno operativo se ha basado en métodos indirectos como puede ser la cuantificación y análisis de los reportes voluntarios de incidentes o el uso de modelos de riesgo de colisión enfocados a escenarios operativos parciales, como puede ser un espacio aéreo oceánico. La operación en un área terminal de maniobra es compleja, con distintos flujos de tráfico de arribada y salida a uno o varios aeropuertos, con cambios frecuentes en el rumbo y velocidad de las aeronaves y con instrucciones tácticas del control de tráfico aéreo para secuenciar y separar las aeronaves El objetivo de la presente Tesis es complementar los actuales métodos de monitorización de la seguridad que presentan sus limitaciones, con el desarrollo de un modelo de riesgo de colisión para áreas terminales de alta densidad que se base en datos objetivos como son las trazar radar de las aeronaves y que tenga en cuenta la complejidad de la operación en un área terminal. Para evaluar el modelo desarrollado se ha implementado una herramienta prototipo en MATLAB© que permite procesar un número masivo de trazar radar para un escenario de área terminal y calcular un valor del riesgo de colisión para el escenario analizado. El prototipo ha sido utilizado para estimar la probabilidad de colisión para distintos escenarios del área terminal de Madrid. El uso de trazas radar permite monitorizar el nivel de riesgo de escenarios reales de manera periódica estableciendo niveles de alerta temprana si se detecta que el valor de riesgo se desvía en exceso, pero también permite evaluar el nivel de riesgo de diseños de espacio aéreo o de nuevos modos de operación a partir de las trazas radar obtenidas en las simulaciones en tiempo real o acelerado y actuar en fases tempranas de los proyectos. ABSTRACT The air transport is a strategic sector for the economic growth of any country. The stability and development of the transport mode have a fundamental pillar in a safe operation, especially when long-term forecasts show scenarios of continuous growth in air traffic. Risk estimation and therefore the level of safety in an operational airspace has been based on indirect methods such as the quantification and analysis of voluntary reports of safety incidents or use of collision risk models focused on partial or simple operational scenarios such as an oceanic airspace. The operation on a terminal maneuvering area is complex, with different traffic flows of arrival and departure at one or more airports, with frequent changes in direction and speed of aircraft and tactical instructions of air traffic control to sequence and separate aircraft. The objective of this Thesis is to complement existing methods of monitoring safety that have their limitations, with the development of a collision risk model for high-density terminal areas that is based on objective data such as aircraft radar tracks and taking into account the complexity of the operation in a terminal area. To evaluate the developed model a prototype tool was implemented with MATLAB© that can process massive numbers of radar tracks for a terminal area scenario and computing a collision risk value for that scenario. The prototype has been used to estimate the probability of collision for different scenarios of the terminal area of Madrid. The use of radar tracks allows to monitor the level of risk of real scenarios periodically establishing levels of early warning when the risk value deviates too much, but also to assess the risk level of airspace designs or modes of operations from the radar tracks obtained in real or fast time simulations and act in the early stages of projects.