Online Learning of Non-stationary Sequences

We consider an online learning scenario in which the learner can make predictions on the basis of a fixed set of experts. The performance of each expert may change over time in a manner unknown to the learner. We formulate a class of universal learning algorithms for this problem by expressing them as simple Bayesian algorithms operating on models analogous to Hidden Markov Models (HMMs). We derive a new performance bound for such algorithms which is considerably simpler than existing bounds. The bound provides the basis for learning the rate at which the identity of the optimal expert switches over time. We find an analytic expression for the a priori resolution at which we need to learn the rate parameter. We extend our scalar switching-rate result to models of the switching-rate that are governed by a matrix of parameters, i.e. arbitrary homogeneous HMMs. We apply and examine our algorithm in the context of the problem of energy management in wireless networks. We analyze the new results in the framework of Information Theory.

An O(N) Algorithm for Three-Dimensional N-Body Simulations

We develop an algorithm that computes the gravitational potentials and forces on N point-masses interacting in three-dimensional space. The algorithm, based on analytical techniques developed by Rokhlin and Greengard, runs in order N time. In contrast to other fast N-body methods such as tree codes, which only approximate the interaction potentials and forces, this method is exact ?? computes the potentials and forces to within any prespecified tolerance up to machine precision. We present an implementation of the algorithm for a sequential machine. We numerically verify the algorithm, and compare its speed with that of an O(N2) direct force computation. We also describe a parallel version of the algorithm that runs on the Connection Machine in order 0(logN) time. We compare experimental results with those of the sequential implementation and discuss how to minimize communication overhead on the parallel machine.

On Convergence Properties of the EM Algorithm for Gaussian Mixtures

"Expectation-Maximization'' (EM) algorithm and gradient-based approaches for maximum likelihood learning of finite Gaussian mixtures. We show that the EM step in parameter space is obtained from the gradient via a projection matrix $P$, and we provide an explicit expression for the matrix. We then analyze the convergence of EM in terms of special properties of $P$ and provide new results analyzing the effect that $P$ has on the likelihood surface. Based on these mathematical results, we present a comparative discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of EM and other algorithms for the learning of Gaussian mixture models.

Hierarchical Mixtures of Experts and the EM Algorithm

We present a tree-structured architecture for supervised learning. The statistical model underlying the architecture is a hierarchical mixture model in which both the mixture coefficients and the mixture components are generalized linear models (GLIM's). Learning is treated as a maximum likelihood problem; in particular, we present an Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for adjusting the parameters of the architecture. We also develop an on-line learning algorithm in which the parameters are updated incrementally. Comparative simulation results are presented in the robot dynamics domain.

A Conservative Front Tracking Algorithm

The discontinuities in the solutions of systems of conservation laws are widely considered as one of the difficulties in numerical simulation. A numerical method is proposed for solving these partial differential equations with discontinuities in the solution. The method is able to track these sharp discontinuities or interfaces while still fully maintain the conservation property. The motion of the front is obtained by solving a Riemann problem based on the state values at its both sides which are reconstructed by using weighted essentially non oscillatory (WENO) scheme. The propagation of the front is coupled with the evaluation of "dynamic" numerical fluxes. Some numerical tests in 1D and preliminary results in 2D are presented.

Temporary and Permanent Buyout Prices in Online Auctions

Increasingly used in online auctions, buyout prices allow bidders to instantly purchase the item listed. We distinguish two types: a temporary buyout option disappears if a bid above the reserve price is made; a permanent one remains throughout the auction or until it is exercised. In a model featuring time-sensitive bidders with uniform valuations and Poisson arrivals but endogenous bidding times, we focus on finding temporary and permanent buyout prices maximizing the seller's discounted revenue, and examine the relative benefit of using each type of option in various environments. We characterize equilibrium bidder strategies in both cases and then solve the problem of maximizing seller's utility by simulation. Our numerical experiments suggest that buyout options may significantly increase a seller’s revenue. Additionally, while a temporary buyout option promotes early bidding, a permanent option gives an incentive to the bidders to bid late, thus leading to concentrated bids near the end of the auction.