Computing Upper and Lower Bounds on Likelihoods in Intractable Networks

We present techniques for computing upper and lower bounds on the likelihoods of partial instantiations of variables in sigmoid and noisy-OR networks. The bounds determine confidence intervals for the desired likelihoods and become useful when the size of the network (or clique size) precludes exact computations. We illustrate the tightness of the obtained bounds by numerical experiments.

(Semi-)Predictive Discretization During Model Selection

In this paper, we present an approach to discretizing multivariate continuous data while learning the structure of a graphical model. We derive the joint scoring function from the principle of predictive accuracy, which inherently ensures the optimal trade-off between goodness of fit and model complexity (including the number of discretization levels). Using the so-called finest grid implied by the data, our scoring function depends only on the number of data points in the various discretization levels. Not only can it be computed efficiently, but it is also independent of the metric used in the continuous space. Our experiments with gene expression data show that discretization plays a crucial role regarding the resulting network structure.