Convergence Results for the EM Approach to Mixtures of Experts Architectures

The Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is an iterative approach to maximum likelihood parameter estimation. Jordan and Jacobs (1993) recently proposed an EM algorithm for the mixture of experts architecture of Jacobs, Jordan, Nowlan and Hinton (1991) and the hierarchical mixture of experts architecture of Jordan and Jacobs (1992). They showed empirically that the EM algorithm for these architectures yields significantly faster convergence than gradient ascent. In the current paper we provide a theoretical analysis of this algorithm. We show that the algorithm can be regarded as a variable metric algorithm with its searching direction having a positive projection on the gradient of the log likelihood. We also analyze the convergence of the algorithm and provide an explicit expression for the convergence rate. In addition, we describe an acceleration technique that yields a significant speedup in simulation experiments.

On the Relationship Between Generalization Error, Hypothesis Complexity, and Sample Complexity for Radial Basis Functions

In this paper, we bound the generalization error of a class of Radial Basis Function networks, for certain well defined function learning tasks, in terms of the number of parameters and number of examples. We show that the total generalization error is partly due to the insufficient representational capacity of the network (because of its finite size) and partly due to insufficient information about the target function (because of finite number of samples). We make several observations about generalization error which are valid irrespective of the approximation scheme. Our result also sheds light on ways to choose an appropriate network architecture for a particular problem.

A Radial Basis Function Approach to Financial Time Series Analysis

Nonlinear multivariate statistical techniques on fast computers offer the potential to capture more of the dynamics of the high dimensional, noisy systems underlying financial markets than traditional models, while making fewer restrictive assumptions. This thesis presents a collection of practical techniques to address important estimation and confidence issues for Radial Basis Function networks arising from such a data driven approach, including efficient methods for parameter estimation and pruning, a pointwise prediction error estimator, and a methodology for controlling the "data mining'' problem. Novel applications in the finance area are described, including customized, adaptive option pricing and stock price prediction.

Reconfigurable Architectures for General-Purpose Computing

General-purpose computing devices allow us to (1) customize computation after fabrication and (2) conserve area by reusing expensive active circuitry for different functions in time. We define RP-space, a restricted domain of the general-purpose architectural space focussed on reconfigurable computing architectures. Two dominant features differentiate reconfigurable from special-purpose architectures and account for most of the area overhead associated with RP devices: (1) instructions which tell the device how to behave, and (2) flexible interconnect which supports task dependent dataflow between operations. We can characterize RP-space by the allocation and structure of these resources and compare the efficiencies of architectural points across broad application characteristics. Conventional FPGAs fall at one extreme end of this space and their efficiency ranges over two orders of magnitude across the space of application characteristics. Understanding RP-space and its consequences allows us to pick the best architecture for a task and to search for more robust design points in the space. Our DPGA, a fine- grained computing device which adds small, on-chip instruction memories to FPGAs is one such design point. For typical logic applications and finite- state machines, a DPGA can implement tasks in one-third the area of a traditional FPGA. TSFPGA, a variant of the DPGA which focuses on heavily time-switched interconnect, achieves circuit densities close to the DPGA, while reducing typical physical mapping times from hours to seconds. Rigid, fabrication-time organization of instruction resources significantly narrows the range of efficiency for conventional architectures. To avoid this performance brittleness, we developed MATRIX, the first architecture to defer the binding of instruction resources until run-time, allowing the application to organize resources according to its needs. Our focus MATRIX design point is based on an array of 8-bit ALU and register-file building blocks interconnected via a byte-wide network. With today's silicon, a single chip MATRIX array can deliver over 10 Gop/s (8-bit ops). On sample image processing tasks, we show that MATRIX yields 10-20x the computational density of conventional processors. Understanding the cost structure of RP-space helps us identify these intermediate architectural points and may provide useful insight more broadly in guiding our continual search for robust and efficient general-purpose computing structures.

Comparing Support Vector Machines with Gaussian Kernels to Radial Basis Function Classifiers

The Support Vector (SV) machine is a novel type of learning machine, based on statistical learning theory, which contains polynomial classifiers, neural networks, and radial basis function (RBF) networks as special cases. In the RBF case, the SV algorithm automatically determines centers, weights and threshold such as to minimize an upper bound on the expected test error. The present study is devoted to an experimental comparison of these machines with a classical approach, where the centers are determined by $k$--means clustering and the weights are found using error backpropagation. We consider three machines, namely a classical RBF machine, an SV machine with Gaussian kernel, and a hybrid system with the centers determined by the SV method and the weights trained by error backpropagation. Our results show that on the US postal service database of handwritten digits, the SV machine achieves the highest test accuracy, followed by the hybrid approach. The SV approach is thus not only theoretically well--founded, but also superior in a practical application.

Priors Stabilizers and Basis Functions: From Regularization to Radial, Tensor and Additive Splines

We had previously shown that regularization principles lead to approximation schemes, as Radial Basis Functions, which are equivalent to networks with one layer of hidden units, called Regularization Networks. In this paper we show that regularization networks encompass a much broader range of approximation schemes, including many of the popular general additive models, Breiman's hinge functions and some forms of Projection Pursuit Regression. In the probabilistic interpretation of regularization, the different classes of basis functions correspond to different classes of prior probabilities on the approximating function spaces, and therefore to different types of smoothness assumptions. In the final part of the paper, we also show a relation between activation functions of the Gaussian and sigmoidal type.

New Architectural Models for Visibly Controllable Computing: The Relevance of Dynamic Object Oriented Architectures and Plan Based Computing Models

Traditionally, we've focussed on the question of how to make a system easy to code the first time, or perhaps on how to ease the system's continued evolution. But if we look at life cycle costs, then we must conclude that the important question is how to make a system easy to operate. To do this we need to make it easy for the operators to see what's going on and to then manipulate the system so that it does what it is supposed to. This is a radically different criterion for success. What makes a computer system visible and controllable? This is a difficult question, but it's clear that today's modern operating systems with nearly 50 million source lines of code are neither. Strikingly, the MIT Lisp Machine and its commercial successors provided almost the same functionality as today's mainstream sytsems, but with only 1 Million lines of code. This paper is a retrospective examination of the features of the Lisp Machine hardware and software system. Our key claim is that by building the Object Abstraction into the lowest tiers of the system, great synergy and clarity were obtained. It is our hope that this is a lesson that can impact tomorrow's designs. We also speculate on how the spirit of the Lisp Machine could be extended to include a comprehensive access control model and how new layers of abstraction could further enrich this model.