On the Relationship Between Generalization Error, Hypothesis Complexity, and Sample Complexity for Radial Basis Functions

In this paper, we bound the generalization error of a class of Radial Basis Function networks, for certain well defined function learning tasks, in terms of the number of parameters and number of examples. We show that the total generalization error is partly due to the insufficient representational capacity of the network (because of its finite size) and partly due to insufficient information about the target function (because of finite number of samples). We make several observations about generalization error which are valid irrespective of the approximation scheme. Our result also sheds light on ways to choose an appropriate network architecture for a particular problem.

Priors Stabilizers and Basis Functions: From Regularization to Radial, Tensor and Additive Splines

We had previously shown that regularization principles lead to approximation schemes, as Radial Basis Functions, which are equivalent to networks with one layer of hidden units, called Regularization Networks. In this paper we show that regularization networks encompass a much broader range of approximation schemes, including many of the popular general additive models, Breiman's hinge functions and some forms of Projection Pursuit Regression. In the probabilistic interpretation of regularization, the different classes of basis functions correspond to different classes of prior probabilities on the approximating function spaces, and therefore to different types of smoothness assumptions. In the final part of the paper, we also show a relation between activation functions of the Gaussian and sigmoidal type.

A Radial Basis Function Approach to Financial Time Series Analysis

Nonlinear multivariate statistical techniques on fast computers offer the potential to capture more of the dynamics of the high dimensional, noisy systems underlying financial markets than traditional models, while making fewer restrictive assumptions. This thesis presents a collection of practical techniques to address important estimation and confidence issues for Radial Basis Function networks arising from such a data driven approach, including efficient methods for parameter estimation and pruning, a pointwise prediction error estimator, and a methodology for controlling the "data mining'' problem. Novel applications in the finance area are described, including customized, adaptive option pricing and stock price prediction.

A Theory of Networks for Appxoimation and Learning

Learning an input-output mapping from a set of examples, of the type that many neural networks have been constructed to perform, can be regarded as synthesizing an approximation of a multi-dimensional function, that is solving the problem of hypersurface reconstruction. From this point of view, this form of learning is closely related to classical approximation techniques, such as generalized splines and regularization theory. This paper considers the problems of an exact representation and, in more detail, of the approximation of linear and nolinear mappings in terms of simpler functions of fewer variables. Kolmogorov's theorem concerning the representation of functions of several variables in terms of functions of one variable turns out to be almost irrelevant in the context of networks for learning. We develop a theoretical framework for approximation based on regularization techniques that leads to a class of three-layer networks that we call Generalized Radial Basis Functions (GRBF), since they are mathematically related to the well-known Radial Basis Functions, mainly used for strict interpolation tasks. GRBF networks are not only equivalent to generalized splines, but are also closely related to pattern recognition methods such as Parzen windows and potential functions and to several neural network algorithms, such as Kanerva's associative memory, backpropagation and Kohonen's topology preserving map. They also have an interesting interpretation in terms of prototypes that are synthesized and optimally combined during the learning stage. The paper introduces several extensions and applications of the technique and discusses intriguing analogies with neurobiological data.

A Connection Between GRBF and MLP

Both multilayer perceptrons (MLP) and Generalized Radial Basis Functions (GRBF) have good approximation properties, theoretically and experimentally. Are they related? The main point of this paper is to show that for normalized inputs, multilayer perceptron networks are radial function networks (albeit with a non-standard radial function). This provides an interpretation of the weights w as centers t of the radial function network, and therefore as equivalent to templates. This insight may be useful for practical applications, including better initialization procedures for MLP. In the remainder of the paper, we discuss the relation between the radial functions that correspond to the sigmoid for normalized inputs and well-behaved radial basis functions, such as the Gaussian. In particular, we observe that the radial function associated with the sigmoid is an activation function that is good approximation to Gaussian basis functions for a range of values of the bias parameter. The implication is that a MLP network can always simulate a Gaussian GRBF network (with the same number of units but less parameters); the converse is true only for certain values of the bias parameter. Numerical experiments indicate that this constraint is not always satisfied in practice by MLP networks trained with backpropagation. Multiscale GRBF networks, on the other hand, can approximate MLP networks with a similar number of parameters.

Multivariate Density Estimation: An SVM Approach

We formulate density estimation as an inverse operator problem. We then use convergence results of empirical distribution functions to true distribution functions to develop an algorithm for multivariate density estimation. The algorithm is based upon a Support Vector Machine (SVM) approach to solving inverse operator problems. The algorithm is implemented and tested on simulated data from different distributions and different dimensionalities, gaussians and laplacians in $R^2$ and $R^{12}$. A comparison in performance is made with Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs). Our algorithm does as well or better than the GMMs for the simulations tested and has the added advantage of being automated with respect to parameters.

A Nonparametric Approach to Pricing and Hedging Derivative Securities via Learning Networks

We propose a nonparametric method for estimating derivative financial asset pricing formulae using learning networks. To demonstrate feasibility, we first simulate Black-Scholes option prices and show that learning networks can recover the Black-Scholes formula from a two-year training set of daily options prices, and that the resulting network formula can be used successfully to both price and delta-hedge options out-of-sample. For comparison, we estimate models using four popular methods: ordinary least squares, radial basis functions, multilayer perceptrons, and projection pursuit. To illustrate practical relevance, we also apply our approach to S&P 500 futures options data from 1987 to 1991.