Probabilistic Independence Networks for Hidden Markov Probability Models

Graphical techniques for modeling the dependencies of randomvariables have been explored in a variety of different areas includingstatistics, statistical physics, artificial intelligence, speech recognition, image processing, and genetics.Formalisms for manipulating these models have been developedrelatively independently in these research communities. In this paper weexplore hidden Markov models (HMMs) and related structures within the general framework of probabilistic independencenetworks (PINs). The paper contains a self-contained review of the basic principles of PINs.It is shown that the well-known forward-backward (F-B) and Viterbialgorithms for HMMs are special cases of more general inference algorithms forarbitrary PINs. Furthermore, the existence of inference and estimationalgorithms for more general graphical models provides a set of analysistools for HMM practitioners who wish to explore a richer class of HMMstructures.Examples of relatively complex models to handle sensorfusion and coarticulationin speech recognitionare introduced and treated within the graphical model framework toillustrate the advantages of the general approach.

Factorial Hidden Markov Models

We present a framework for learning in hidden Markov models with distributed state representations. Within this framework, we derive a learning algorithm based on the Expectation--Maximization (EM) procedure for maximum likelihood estimation. Analogous to the standard Baum-Welch update rules, the M-step of our algorithm is exact and can be solved analytically. However, due to the combinatorial nature of the hidden state representation, the exact E-step is intractable. A simple and tractable mean field approximation is derived. Empirical results on a set of problems suggest that both the mean field approximation and Gibbs sampling are viable alternatives to the computationally expensive exact algorithm.

Estimating Dependency Structure as a Hidden Variable

This paper introduces a probability model, the mixture of trees that can account for sparse, dynamically changing dependence relationships. We present a family of efficient algorithms that use EMand the Minimum Spanning Tree algorithm to find the ML and MAP mixtureof trees for a variety of priors, including the Dirichlet and the MDL priors.

Estimating Dependency Structure as a Hidden Variable

This paper introduces a probability model, the mixture of trees that can account for sparse, dynamically changing dependence relationships. We present a family of efficient algorithms that use EM and the Minimum Spanning Tree algorithm to find the ML and MAP mixture of trees for a variety of priors, including the Dirichlet and the MDL priors. We also show that the single tree classifier acts like an implicit feature selector, thus making the classification performance insensitive to irrelevant attributes. Experimental results demonstrate the excellent performance of the new model both in density estimation and in classification.

Enhanced Reality Visualization in a Surgical Environment

Enhanced reality visualization is the process of enhancing an image by adding to it information which is not present in the original image. A wide variety of information can be added to an image ranging from hidden lines or surfaces to textual or iconic data about a particular part of the image. Enhanced reality visualization is particularly well suited to neurosurgery. By rendering brain structures which are not visible, at the correct location in an image of a patient's head, the surgeon is essentially provided with X-ray vision. He can visualize the spatial relationship between brain structures before he performs a craniotomy and during the surgery he can see what's under the next layer before he cuts through. Given a video image of the patient and a three dimensional model of the patient's brain the problem enhanced reality visualization faces is to render the model from the correct viewpoint and overlay it on the original image. The relationship between the coordinate frames of the patient, the patient's internal anatomy scans and the image plane of the camera observing the patient must be established. This problem is closely related to the camera calibration problem. This report presents a new approach to finding this relationship and develops a system for performing enhanced reality visualization in a surgical environment. Immediately prior to surgery a few circular fiducials are placed near the surgical site. An initial registration of video and internal data is performed using a laser scanner. Following this, our method is fully automatic, runs in nearly real-time, is accurate to within a pixel, allows both patient and camera motion, automatically corrects for changes to the internal camera parameters (focal length, focus, aperture, etc.) and requires only a single image.

ADAM: A Decentralized Parallel Computer Architecture Featuring Fast Thread and Data Migration and a Uniform Hardware Abstraction

The furious pace of Moore's Law is driving computer architecture into a realm where the the speed of light is the dominant factor in system latencies. The number of clock cycles to span a chip are increasing, while the number of bits that can be accessed within a clock cycle is decreasing. Hence, it is becoming more difficult to hide latency. One alternative solution is to reduce latency by migrating threads and data, but the overhead of existing implementations has previously made migration an unserviceable solution so far. I present an architecture, implementation, and mechanisms that reduces the overhead of migration to the point where migration is a viable supplement to other latency hiding mechanisms, such as multithreading. The architecture is abstract, and presents programmers with a simple, uniform fine-grained multithreaded parallel programming model with implicit memory management. In other words, the spatial nature and implementation details (such as the number of processors) of a parallel machine are entirely hidden from the programmer. Compiler writers are encouraged to devise programming languages for the machine that guide a programmer to express their ideas in terms of objects, since objects exhibit an inherent physical locality of data and code. The machine implementation can then leverage this locality to automatically distribute data and threads across the physical machine by using a set of high performance migration mechanisms. An implementation of this architecture could migrate a null thread in 66 cycles -- over a factor of 1000 improvement over previous work. Performance also scales well; the time required to move a typical thread is only 4 to 5 times that of a null thread. Data migration performance is similar, and scales linearly with data block size. Since the performance of the migration mechanism is on par with that of an L2 cache, the implementation simulated in my work has no data caches and relies instead on multithreading and the migration mechanism to hide and reduce access latencies.

Online Learning of Non-stationary Sequences

We consider an online learning scenario in which the learner can make predictions on the basis of a fixed set of experts. The performance of each expert may change over time in a manner unknown to the learner. We formulate a class of universal learning algorithms for this problem by expressing them as simple Bayesian algorithms operating on models analogous to Hidden Markov Models (HMMs). We derive a new performance bound for such algorithms which is considerably simpler than existing bounds. The bound provides the basis for learning the rate at which the identity of the optimal expert switches over time. We find an analytic expression for the a priori resolution at which we need to learn the rate parameter. We extend our scalar switching-rate result to models of the switching-rate that are governed by a matrix of parameters, i.e. arbitrary homogeneous HMMs. We apply and examine our algorithm in the context of the problem of energy management in wireless networks. We analyze the new results in the framework of Information Theory.

Fast Learning by Bounding Likelihoods in Sigmoid Type Belief Networks

Sigmoid type belief networks, a class of probabilistic neural networks, provide a natural framework for compactly representing probabilistic information in a variety of unsupervised and supervised learning problems. Often the parameters used in these networks need to be learned from examples. Unfortunately, estimating the parameters via exact probabilistic calculations (i.e, the EM-algorithm) is intractable even for networks with fairly small numbers of hidden units. We propose to avoid the infeasibility of the E step by bounding likelihoods instead of computing them exactly. We introduce extended and complementary representations for these networks and show that the estimation of the network parameters can be made fast (reduced to quadratic optimization) by performing the estimation in either of the alternative domains. The complementary networks can be used for continuous density estimation as well.

Priors Stabilizers and Basis Functions: From Regularization to Radial, Tensor and Additive Splines

We had previously shown that regularization principles lead to approximation schemes, as Radial Basis Functions, which are equivalent to networks with one layer of hidden units, called Regularization Networks. In this paper we show that regularization networks encompass a much broader range of approximation schemes, including many of the popular general additive models, Breiman's hinge functions and some forms of Projection Pursuit Regression. In the probabilistic interpretation of regularization, the different classes of basis functions correspond to different classes of prior probabilities on the approximating function spaces, and therefore to different types of smoothness assumptions. In the final part of the paper, we also show a relation between activation functions of the Gaussian and sigmoidal type.

Modeling Stock Order Flows and Learning Market-Making from Data

Stock markets employ specialized traders, market-makers, designed to provide liquidity and volume to the market by constantly supplying both supply and demand. In this paper, we demonstrate a novel method for modeling the market as a dynamic system and a reinforcement learning algorithm that learns profitable market-making strategies when run on this model. The sequence of buys and sells for a particular stock, the order flow, we model as an Input-Output Hidden Markov Model fit to historical data. When combined with the dynamics of the order book, this creates a highly non-linear and difficult dynamic system. Our reinforcement learning algorithm, based on likelihood ratios, is run on this partially-observable environment. We demonstrate learning results for two separate real stocks.