A Radial Basis Function Approach to Financial Time Series Analysis

Nonlinear multivariate statistical techniques on fast computers offer the potential to capture more of the dynamics of the high dimensional, noisy systems underlying financial markets than traditional models, while making fewer restrictive assumptions. This thesis presents a collection of practical techniques to address important estimation and confidence issues for Radial Basis Function networks arising from such a data driven approach, including efficient methods for parameter estimation and pruning, a pointwise prediction error estimator, and a methodology for controlling the "data mining'' problem. Novel applications in the finance area are described, including customized, adaptive option pricing and stock price prediction.

Comparing Support Vector Machines with Gaussian Kernels to Radial Basis Function Classifiers

The Support Vector (SV) machine is a novel type of learning machine, based on statistical learning theory, which contains polynomial classifiers, neural networks, and radial basis function (RBF) networks as special cases. In the RBF case, the SV algorithm automatically determines centers, weights and threshold such as to minimize an upper bound on the expected test error. The present study is devoted to an experimental comparison of these machines with a classical approach, where the centers are determined by $k$--means clustering and the weights are found using error backpropagation. We consider three machines, namely a classical RBF machine, an SV machine with Gaussian kernel, and a hybrid system with the centers determined by the SV method and the weights trained by error backpropagation. Our results show that on the US postal service database of handwritten digits, the SV machine achieves the highest test accuracy, followed by the hybrid approach. The SV approach is thus not only theoretically well--founded, but also superior in a practical application.

On the Relationship Between Generalization Error, Hypothesis Complexity, and Sample Complexity for Radial Basis Functions

In this paper, we bound the generalization error of a class of Radial Basis Function networks, for certain well defined function learning tasks, in terms of the number of parameters and number of examples. We show that the total generalization error is partly due to the insufficient representational capacity of the network (because of its finite size) and partly due to insufficient information about the target function (because of finite number of samples). We make several observations about generalization error which are valid irrespective of the approximation scheme. Our result also sheds light on ways to choose an appropriate network architecture for a particular problem.

The Informational Complexity of Learning from Examples

This thesis attempts to quantify the amount of information needed to learn certain tasks. The tasks chosen vary from learning functions in a Sobolev space using radial basis function networks to learning grammars in the principles and parameters framework of modern linguistic theory. These problems are analyzed from the perspective of computational learning theory and certain unifying perspectives emerge.

Support Vector Machines: Training and Applications

The Support Vector Machine (SVM) is a new and very promising classification technique developed by Vapnik and his group at AT&T Bell Labs. This new learning algorithm can be seen as an alternative training technique for Polynomial, Radial Basis Function and Multi-Layer Perceptron classifiers. An interesting property of this approach is that it is an approximate implementation of the Structural Risk Minimization (SRM) induction principle. The derivation of Support Vector Machines, its relationship with SRM, and its geometrical insight, are discussed in this paper. Training a SVM is equivalent to solve a quadratic programming problem with linear and box constraints in a number of variables equal to the number of data points. When the number of data points exceeds few thousands the problem is very challenging, because the quadratic form is completely dense, so the memory needed to store the problem grows with the square of the number of data points. Therefore, training problems arising in some real applications with large data sets are impossible to load into memory, and cannot be solved using standard non-linear constrained optimization algorithms. We present a decomposition algorithm that can be used to train SVM's over large data sets. The main idea behind the decomposition is the iterative solution of sub-problems and the evaluation of, and also establish the stopping criteria for the algorithm. We present previous approaches, as well as results and important details of our implementation of the algorithm using a second-order variant of the Reduced Gradient Method as the solver of the sub-problems. As an application of SVM's, we present preliminary results we obtained applying SVM to the problem of detecting frontal human faces in real images.

A Theory of Networks for Appxoimation and Learning

Learning an input-output mapping from a set of examples, of the type that many neural networks have been constructed to perform, can be regarded as synthesizing an approximation of a multi-dimensional function, that is solving the problem of hypersurface reconstruction. From this point of view, this form of learning is closely related to classical approximation techniques, such as generalized splines and regularization theory. This paper considers the problems of an exact representation and, in more detail, of the approximation of linear and nolinear mappings in terms of simpler functions of fewer variables. Kolmogorov's theorem concerning the representation of functions of several variables in terms of functions of one variable turns out to be almost irrelevant in the context of networks for learning. We develop a theoretical framework for approximation based on regularization techniques that leads to a class of three-layer networks that we call Generalized Radial Basis Functions (GRBF), since they are mathematically related to the well-known Radial Basis Functions, mainly used for strict interpolation tasks. GRBF networks are not only equivalent to generalized splines, but are also closely related to pattern recognition methods such as Parzen windows and potential functions and to several neural network algorithms, such as Kanerva's associative memory, backpropagation and Kohonen's topology preserving map. They also have an interesting interpretation in terms of prototypes that are synthesized and optimally combined during the learning stage. The paper introduces several extensions and applications of the technique and discusses intriguing analogies with neurobiological data.

Priors Stabilizers and Basis Functions: From Regularization to Radial, Tensor and Additive Splines

We had previously shown that regularization principles lead to approximation schemes, as Radial Basis Functions, which are equivalent to networks with one layer of hidden units, called Regularization Networks. In this paper we show that regularization networks encompass a much broader range of approximation schemes, including many of the popular general additive models, Breiman's hinge functions and some forms of Projection Pursuit Regression. In the probabilistic interpretation of regularization, the different classes of basis functions correspond to different classes of prior probabilities on the approximating function spaces, and therefore to different types of smoothness assumptions. In the final part of the paper, we also show a relation between activation functions of the Gaussian and sigmoidal type.

Compact Representations for Fast Nonrigid Registration of Medical Images

We develop efficient techniques for the non-rigid registration of medical images by using representations that adapt to the anatomy found in such images. Images of anatomical structures typically have uniform intensity interiors and smooth boundaries. We create methods to represent such regions compactly using tetrahedra. Unlike voxel-based representations, tetrahedra can accurately describe the expected smooth surfaces of medical objects. Furthermore, the interior of such objects can be represented using a small number of tetrahedra. Rather than describing a medical object using tens of thousands of voxels, our representations generally contain only a few thousand elements. Tetrahedra facilitate the creation of efficient non-rigid registration algorithms based on finite element methods (FEM). We create a fast, FEM-based method to non-rigidly register segmented anatomical structures from two subjects. Using our compact tetrahedral representations, this method generally requires less than one minute of processing time on a desktop PC. We also create a novel method for the non-rigid registration of gray scale images. To facilitate a fast method, we create a tetrahedral representation of a displacement field that automatically adapts to both the anatomy in an image and to the displacement field. The resulting algorithm has a computational cost that is dominated by the number of nodes in the mesh (about 10,000), rather than the number of voxels in an image (nearly 10,000,000). For many non-rigid registration problems, we can find a transformation from one image to another in five minutes. This speed is important as it allows use of the algorithm during surgery. We apply our algorithms to find correlations between the shape of anatomical structures and the presence of schizophrenia. We show that a study based on our representations outperforms studies based on other representations. We also use the results of our non-rigid registration algorithm as the basis of a segmentation algorithm. That algorithm also outperforms other methods in our tests, producing smoother segmentations and more accurately reproducing manual segmentations.

A Connection Between GRBF and MLP

Both multilayer perceptrons (MLP) and Generalized Radial Basis Functions (GRBF) have good approximation properties, theoretically and experimentally. Are they related? The main point of this paper is to show that for normalized inputs, multilayer perceptron networks are radial function networks (albeit with a non-standard radial function). This provides an interpretation of the weights w as centers t of the radial function network, and therefore as equivalent to templates. This insight may be useful for practical applications, including better initialization procedures for MLP. In the remainder of the paper, we discuss the relation between the radial functions that correspond to the sigmoid for normalized inputs and well-behaved radial basis functions, such as the Gaussian. In particular, we observe that the radial function associated with the sigmoid is an activation function that is good approximation to Gaussian basis functions for a range of values of the bias parameter. The implication is that a MLP network can always simulate a Gaussian GRBF network (with the same number of units but less parameters); the converse is true only for certain values of the bias parameter. Numerical experiments indicate that this constraint is not always satisfied in practice by MLP networks trained with backpropagation. Multiscale GRBF networks, on the other hand, can approximate MLP networks with a similar number of parameters.

A Nonparametric Approach to Pricing and Hedging Derivative Securities via Learning Networks

We propose a nonparametric method for estimating derivative financial asset pricing formulae using learning networks. To demonstrate feasibility, we first simulate Black-Scholes option prices and show that learning networks can recover the Black-Scholes formula from a two-year training set of daily options prices, and that the resulting network formula can be used successfully to both price and delta-hedge options out-of-sample. For comparison, we estimate models using four popular methods: ordinary least squares, radial basis functions, multilayer perceptrons, and projection pursuit. To illustrate practical relevance, we also apply our approach to S&P 500 futures options data from 1987 to 1991.