Parameter Estimation in Chaotic Systems

This report examines how to estimate the parameters of a chaotic system given noisy observations of the state behavior of the system. Investigating parameter estimation for chaotic systems is interesting because of possible applications for high-precision measurement and for use in other signal processing, communication, and control applications involving chaotic systems. In this report, we examine theoretical issues regarding parameter estimation in chaotic systems and develop an efficient algorithm to perform parameter estimation. We discover two properties that are helpful for performing parameter estimation on non-structurally stable systems. First, it turns out that most data in a time series of state observations contribute very little information about the underlying parameters of a system, while a few sections of data may be extraordinarily sensitive to parameter changes. Second, for one-parameter families of systems, we demonstrate that there is often a preferred direction in parameter space governing how easily trajectories of one system can "shadow'" trajectories of nearby systems. This asymmetry of shadowing behavior in parameter space is proved for certain families of maps of the interval. Numerical evidence indicates that similar results may be true for a wide variety of other systems. Using the two properties cited above, we devise an algorithm for performing parameter estimation. Standard parameter estimation techniques such as the extended Kalman filter perform poorly on chaotic systems because of divergence problems. The proposed algorithm achieves accuracies several orders of magnitude better than the Kalman filter and has good convergence properties for large data sets.

Certified Rapid Solution of Parametrized Linear Elliptic Equations: Application to Parameter Estimation

We present a technique for the rapid and reliable evaluation of linear-functional output of elliptic partial differential equations with affine parameter dependence. The essential components are (i) rapidly uniformly convergent reduced-basis approximations — Galerkin projection onto a space WN spanned by solutions of the governing partial differential equation at N (optimally) selected points in parameter space; (ii) a posteriori error estimation — relaxations of the residual equation that provide inexpensive yet sharp and rigorous bounds for the error in the outputs; and (iii) offline/online computational procedures — stratagems that exploit affine parameter dependence to de-couple the generation and projection stages of the approximation process. The operation count for the online stage — in which, given a new parameter value, we calculate the output and associated error bound — depends only on N (typically small) and the parametric complexity of the problem. The method is thus ideally suited to the many-query and real-time contexts. In this paper, based on the technique we develop a robust inverse computational method for very fast solution of inverse problems characterized by parametrized partial differential equations. The essential ideas are in three-fold: first, we apply the technique to the forward problem for the rapid certified evaluation of PDE input-output relations and associated rigorous error bounds; second, we incorporate the reduced-basis approximation and error bounds into the inverse problem formulation; and third, rather than regularize the goodness-of-fit objective, we may instead identify all (or almost all, in the probabilistic sense) system configurations consistent with the available experimental data — well-posedness is reflected in a bounded "possibility region" that furthermore shrinks as the experimental error is decreased.

Modeling, Estimation, and Control of Robot-Soil Interactions

This thesis presents the development of hardware, theory, and experimental methods to enable a robotic manipulator arm to interact with soils and estimate soil properties from interaction forces. Unlike the majority of robotic systems interacting with soil, our objective is parameter estimation, not excavation. To this end, we design our manipulator with a flat plate for easy modeling of interactions. By using a flat plate, we take advantage of the wealth of research on the similar problem of earth pressure on retaining walls. There are a number of existing earth pressure models. These models typically provide estimates of force which are in uncertain relation to the true force. A recent technique, known as numerical limit analysis, provides upper and lower bounds on the true force. Predictions from the numerical limit analysis technique are shown to be in good agreement with other accepted models. Experimental methods for plate insertion, soil-tool interface friction estimation, and control of applied forces on the soil are presented. In addition, a novel graphical technique for inverting the soil models is developed, which is an improvement over standard nonlinear optimization. This graphical technique utilizes the uncertainties associated with each set of force measurements to obtain all possible parameters which could have produced the measured forces. The system is tested on three cohesionless soils, two in a loose state and one in a loose and dense state. The results are compared with friction angles obtained from direct shear tests. The results highlight a number of key points. Common assumptions are made in soil modeling. Most notably, the Mohr-Coulomb failure law and perfectly plastic behavior. In the direct shear tests, a marked dependence of friction angle on the normal stress at low stresses is found. This has ramifications for any study of friction done at low stresses. In addition, gradual failures are often observed for vertical tools and tools inclined away from the direction of motion. After accounting for the change in friction angle at low stresses, the results show good agreement with the direct shear values.

KAM: Automatic Planning and Interpretation of Numerical Experiments Using Geometrical Methods

KAM is a computer program that can automatically plan, monitor, and interpret numerical experiments with Hamiltonian systems with two degrees of freedom. The program has recently helped solve an open problem in hydrodynamics. Unlike other approaches to qualitative reasoning about physical system dynamics, KAM embodies a significant amount of knowledge about nonlinear dynamics. KAM's ability to control numerical experiments arises from the fact that it not only produces pictures for us to see, but also looks at (sic---in its mind's eye) the pictures it draws to guide its own actions. KAM is organized in three semantic levels: orbit recognition, phase space searching, and parameter space searching. Within each level spatial properties and relationships that are not explicitly represented in the initial representation are extracted by applying three operations ---(1) aggregation, (2) partition, and (3) classification--- iteratively.

Memory Hierarchy Hardware-Software Co-design in Embedded Systems

The memory hierarchy is the main bottleneck in modern computer systems as the gap between the speed of the processor and the memory continues to grow larger. The situation in embedded systems is even worse. The memory hierarchy consumes a large amount of chip area and energy, which are precious resources in embedded systems. Moreover, embedded systems have multiple design objectives such as performance, energy consumption, and area, etc. Customizing the memory hierarchy for specific applications is a very important way to take full advantage of limited resources to maximize the performance. However, the traditional custom memory hierarchy design methodologies are phase-ordered. They separate the application optimization from the memory hierarchy architecture design, which tend to result in local-optimal solutions. In traditional Hardware-Software co-design methodologies, much of the work has focused on utilizing reconfigurable logic to partition the computation. However, utilizing reconfigurable logic to perform the memory hierarchy design is seldom addressed. In this paper, we propose a new framework for designing memory hierarchy for embedded systems. The framework will take advantage of the flexible reconfigurable logic to customize the memory hierarchy for specific applications. It combines the application optimization and memory hierarchy design together to obtain a global-optimal solution. Using the framework, we performed a case study to design a new software-controlled instruction memory that showed promising potential.