Interações econômicas entre capital humano e fecundidade

O primeiro artigo desta tese procura medir o impacto do programa Bolsa Familia sobre a gravidez juvenil, discutindo também a utilização de programas de transferência condicional de renda para a diminuição da fecundidade em áreas de pobreza. O segundo artigo realiza um exercício contrafactual para estimar o impacto de aumentos no investimento em educação sobre o consumo, considerando não só o aumento da produtividade, mas também o impacto da nova educação sobre a fecundidade das pessoas.

In this article we show evidences that conditional cash transfer programs (CCTs) can be very effective to enhance changes in people reproductive behavior. Using the event of the launching of Bolsa Familia, we first test the hypothesis that teenage pregnancy would be stimulated by being perceived as a potential facilitator of program participation. Then, we use the heterogeneity in the concession of the benefit to adolescent mothers documented between brazilian states as an exogenous source of variation in the incentives faced by the young women in each place, since pregnancy would be perceived as a factor of non-participation in some places. The results of both estimations demonstrate a high level of response of the poorest people of the population to indirect and financially small incentives. Besides suggesting the alteration of Bolsa Familia participation rules, our analysis confirm the potential of CCT programs to achieve voluntarily fertility reduction and maybe even STD prevention, which are relevant to all regions denoted by poverty.