HLA alleles determine human T-lymphotropic virus-I (HTLV-I) proviral load and the risk of HTLV-I-associated myelopathy

The risk of disease associated with persistent virus infections such as HIV-I, hepatitis B and C, and human T-lymphotropic virus-I (HTLV-I) is strongly determined by the virus load. However, it is not known whether a persistent class I HLA-restricted antiviral cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) response reduces viral load and is therefore beneficial or causes tissue damage and contributes to disease pathogenesis. HTLV-I-associated myelopathy (HAM/TSP) patients have a high virus load compared with asymptomatic HTLV-I carriers. We hypothesized that HLA alleles control HTLV-I provirus load and thus influence susceptibility to HAM/TSP. Here we show that, after infection with HTLV-I, the class I allele HLA-A*02 halves the odds of HAM/TSP (P < 0.0001), preventing 28% of potential cases of HAM/TSP. Furthermore, HLA-A*02+ healthy HTLV-I carriers have a proviral load one-third that (P = 0.014) of HLA-A*02− HTLV-I carriers. An association of HLA-DRB1*0101 with disease susceptibility also was identified, which doubled the odds of HAM/TSP in the absence of the protective effect of HLA-A*02. These data have implications for other persistent virus infections in which virus load is associated with prognosis and imply that an efficient antiviral CTL response can reduce virus load and so prevent disease in persistent virus infections.

HIV-1 and T cell dynamics after interruption of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in patients with a history of sustained viral suppression

Identifying the immunologic and virologic consequences of discontinuing antiretroviral therapy in HIV-infected patients is of major importance in developing long-term treatment strategies for patients with HIV-1 infection. We designed a trial to characterize these parameters after interruption of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in patients who had maintained prolonged viral suppression on antiretroviral drugs. Eighteen patients with CD4+ T cell counts ≥ 350 cells/μl and viral load below the limits of detection for ≥1 year while on HAART were enrolled prospectively in a trial in which HAART was discontinued. Twelve of these patients had received prior IL-2 therapy and had low frequencies of resting, latently infected CD4 cells. Viral load relapse to >50 copies/ml occurred in all 18 patients independent of prior IL-2 treatment, beginning most commonly during weeks 2–3 after cessation of HAART. The mean relapse rate constant was 0.45 (0.20 log10 copies) day−1, which was very similar to the mean viral clearance rate constant after drug resumption of 0.35 (0.15 log10 copies) day−1 (P = 0.28). One patient experienced a relapse delay to week 7. All patients except one experienced a relapse burden to >5,000 RNA copies/ml. Ex vivo labeling with BrdUrd showed that CD4 and CD8 cell turnover increased after withdrawal of HAART and correlated with viral load whereas lymphocyte turnover decreased after reinitiation of drug treatment. Virologic relapse occurs rapidly in patients who discontinue suppressive drug therapy, even in patients with a markedly diminished pool of resting, latently infected CD4+ T cells.

Mean arterial pressure and vasopressor load after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: Associations with one-year neurologic outcome

THE AIM OF THE STUDY There are limited data on blood pressure targets and vasopressor use following cardiac arrest. We hypothesized that hypotension and high vasopressor load are associated with poor neurological outcome following out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). METHODS We included 412 patients with OHCA included in FINNRESUSCI study conducted between 2010 and 2011. Hemodynamic data and vasopressor doses were collected electronically in one, two or five minute intervals. We evaluated thresholds for time-weighted (TW) mean arterial pressure (MAP) and outcome by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, and used multivariable analysis adjusting for co-morbidities, factors at resuscitation, an illness severity score, TW MAP and total vasopressor load (VL) to test associations with one-year neurologic outcome, dichotomized into either good (1-2) or poor (3-5) according to the cerebral performance category scale. RESULTS Of 412 patients, 169 patients had good and 243 patients had poor one-year outcomes. The lowest MAP during the first six hours was 58 (inter-quartile range [IQR] 56-61) mmHg in those with a poor outcome and 61 (59-63) mmHg in those with a good outcome (p<0.01), and lowest MAP was independently associated with poor outcome (OR 1.02 per mmHg, 95% CI 1.00-1.04, p=0.03). During the first 48h the median (IQR) of the TW mean MAP was 80 (78-82) mmHg in patients with poor, and 82 (81-83) mmHg in those with good outcomes (p=0.03) but in multivariable analysis TWA MAP was not associated with outcome. Vasopressor load did not predict one-year neurologic outcome. CONCLUSIONS Hypotension occurring during the first six hours after cardiac arrest is an independent predictor of poor one-year neurologic outcome. High vasopressor load was not associated with poor outcome and further randomized trials are needed to define optimal MAP targets in OHCA patients.

Sequence variation in primer targets affects the accuracy of viral quantitative PCR

This study was designed to assess the effect of sequence mismatches between primers and their targets on viral quantitative PCR. Numerous primers were constructed incorporating various mismatches with a target sequence on the BKV T antigen gene. When using these primers in standard Taqman two-step cycling conditions, as few as two mismatches in a single primer increased cycle threshold values and significantly influenced the calculation of viral load. (C) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The effects of varying time under tension and volume load on acute neuromuscular responses

The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of different methods of measuring training volume, controlled in different ways, on selected variables that reflect acute neuromuscular responses. Eighteen resistance-trained males performed three fatiguing protocols of dynamic constant external resistance exercise, involving elbow flexors, that manipulated either time-under-tension (TUT) or volume load (VL), defined as the product of training load and repetitions. Protocol A provided a standard for TUT and VL. Protocol B involved the same VL as Protocol A but only 40% concentric TUT; Protocol C was equated to Protocol A for TUT but only involved 50% VL. Fatigue was assessed by changes in maximum voluntary isometric contraction (MVIC), interpolated doublet (ID), muscle twitch characteristics (peak twitch, time to peak twitch, 0.5 relaxation time, and mean rates of force development and twitch relaxation). All protocols produced significant changes (P

Dynamic training volume: A construct of both time under tension and volume load

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of three different weight training protocols, that varied in the way training volume was measured, on acute muscular fatigue. Ten resistance-trained males performed all three protocols which involved dynamic constant resistance exercise of the elbow flexors. Protocol A provided a standard for the time the muscle group was under tension (TUT) and volume load (VL), expressed as the product of the total number of repetitions and the load that was lifted. Protocol B involved 40% of the TUT but the same VL compared to protocol A; protocol C was equated with protocol A for TUT but only involved 50% of the VL. Fatigue was assessed by changes in maximum voluntary isometric force and integrated electromyography (iEMG) between the pre- and post-training protocols. The results of the study showed that, when equated for VL, greater TUT produced greater overall muscular fatigue ( p

Molecular epidemiology of respiratory viruses in a paediatric cohort from Indonesia

Acute lower respiratory tract infections (ALRTIs) are a common cause of morbidity and mortality among children under 5 years of age and are found worldwide, with pneumonia as the most severe manifestation. Although the incidence of severe disease varies both between individuals and countries, there is still no clear understanding of what causes this variation. Studies of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) have traditionally not focused on viral causes of disease due to a paucity of diagnostic tools. However, with the emergence of molecular techniques, it is now known that viruses outnumber bacteria as the etiological agents of childhood CAP, especially in children under 2 years of age. The main objective of this study was to investigate viruses contributing to disease severity in cases of childhood ALRTI, using a two year cohort study following 2014 infants and children enrolled in Bandung, Indonesia. A total of 352 nasopharyngeal washes collected from 256 paediatric ALRTI patients were used for analysis. A subset of samples was screened using a novel microarray pathogen detection method that identified respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), human metapneumovirus (hMPV) and human rhinovirus (HRV) in the samples. Real-time RT-PCR was used both for confirming and quantifying viruses found in the nasopharyngeal samples. Viral copy numbers were determined and normalised to the numbers of human cells collected with the use of 18S rRNA. Molecular epidemiology was performed for RSV A and hMPV using sequences to the glycoprotein gene and nucleoprotein gene respectively, to determine genotypes circulating in this Indonesian paediatric cohort. This study found that HRV (119/352; 33.8%) was the most common virus detected as the cause of respiratory tract infections in this cohort, followed by the viral pathogens RSV A (73/352; 20.7%), hMPV (30/352; 8.5%) and RSV B (12/352; 3.4%). Co-infections of more than two viruses were detected in 31 episodes (defined as an infection which occurred more than two weeks apart), accounting for 8.8% of the 352 samples tested or 15.4% of the 201 episodes with at least one virus detected. RSV A genotypes circulating in this population were predominantly GA2, GA5 and GA7, while hMPV genotypes circulating were mainly A2a (27/30; 90.0%), B2 (2/30; 6.7%) and A1 (1/30; 3.3%). This study found no evidence of disease severity associated either with a specific virus or viral strain, or with viral load. However, this study did find a significant association with co-infection of RSV A and HRV with severe disease (P = 0.006), suggesting that this may be a novel cause of severe disease.

Assessing the impact of a food supplement on the nutritional status and body composition of HIV-infected Zambian women on ARVs

Background Zambia is a sub-Saharan country with one of the highest prevalence rates of HIV, currently estimated at 14%. Poor nutritional status due to both protein-energy and micronutrient malnutrition has worsened this situation. In an attempt to address this combined problem, the government has instigated a number of strategies, including the provision of antiretroviral (ARV) treatment coupled with the promotion of good nutrition. High-energy protein supplement (HEPS) is particularly promoted; however, the impact of this food supplement on the nutritional status of people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHA) beyond weight gain has not been assessed. Techniques for the assessment of nutritional status utilising objective measures of body composition are not commonly available in Zambia. The aim of this study is therefore to assess the impact of a food supplement on nutritional status using a comprehensive anthropometric protocol including measures of skinfold thickness and circumferences, plus the criterion deuterium dilution technique to assess total body water (TBW) and derive fat-free mass (FFM) and fat mass (FM). Methods/Design This community-based controlled and longitudinal study aims to recruit 200 HIV-infected females commencing ARV treatment at two clinics in Lusaka, Zambia. Data will be collected at four time points: baseline, 4-month, 8-month and 12-month follow-up visits. Outcome measures to be assessed include body height and weight, body mass index (BMI), body composition, CD4, viral load and micronutrient status. Discussion This protocol describes a study that will provide a longitudinal assessment of the impact of a food supplement on the nutritional status of HIV-infected females initiating ARVs using a range of anthropometric and body composition assessment techniques.

Specific rolling circle amplification of low-copy human polyomaviruses BKV, HPyV6, HPyV7, TSPyV, and STLPyV

Eleven new human polyomaviruses have been recently discovered, yet for most of these viruses, little is known of their biology and clinical impact. Rolling circle amplification (RCA) is an ideal method for the amplification of the circular polyomavirus genome due to its high fidelity amplification of circular DNA. In this study, a modified RCA method was developed to selectively amplify a range of polyomavirus genomes. Initial evaluation showed a multiplexed temperature-graded reaction profile gave the best yield and sensitivity in amplifying BK polyomavirus in a background of human DNA, with up to 1 × 10(8)-fold increases in viral genomes from as little as 10 genome copies per reaction. Furthermore, the method proved to be more sensitive and provided a 200-fold greater yield than that of random hexamers based standard RCA. Application of the method to other novel human polyomaviruses showed successful amplification of TSPyV, HPyV6, HPyV7, and STLPyV from low-viral load positive clinical samples, with viral genome enrichment ranging from 1 × 10(8) up to 1 × 10(10). This directed RCA method can be applied to selectively amplify other low-copy polyomaviral genomes from a background of competing non-specific DNA, and is a useful tool in further research into the rapidly expanding Polyomaviridae family.

Molecular evidence of Ebola Reston virus infection in Philippine bats

Background: In 2008-09, evidence of Reston ebolavirus (RESTV) infection was found in domestic pigs and pig workers in the Philippines. With species of bats having been shown to be the cryptic reservoir of filoviruses elsewhere, the Philippine government, in conjunction with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, assembled a multi-disciplinary and multi-institutional team to investigate Philippine bats as the possible reservoir of RESTV. Methods: The team undertook surveillance of bat populations at multiple locations during 2010 using both serology and molecular assays. Results: A total of 464 bats from 21 species were sampled. We found both molecular and serologic evidence of RESTV infection in multiple bat species. RNA was detected with quantitative PCR (qPCR) in oropharyngeal swabs taken from Miniopterus schreibersii, with three samples yielding a product on conventional hemi-nested PCR whose sequences differed from a Philippine pig isolate by a single nucleotide. Uncorroborated qPCR detections may indicate RESTV nucleic acid in several additional bat species (M. australis, C. brachyotis and Ch. plicata). We also detected anti-RESTV antibodies in three bats (Acerodon jubatus) using both Western blot and ELISA. Conclusions: The findings suggest that ebolavirus infection is taxonomically widespread in Philippine bats, but the evident low prevalence and low viral load warrants expanded surveillance to elaborate the findings, and more broadly, to determine the taxonomic and geographic occurrence of ebolaviruses in bats in the region. © 2015 Jayme et al.

Obstetric and gynaecological aspects of HIV infection

The purpose of the present study was to examine the outcome of pregnancies among HIV-infected women in Helsinki, use of the levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system (LNG-IUS) among HIV-infected women and the prevalence and risk factors of cytological and histologically proven cervical lesions in this population. Between 1993 and 2003 a total of 45 HIV-infected women delivered 52 singleton infants. HIV infection was diagnosed during pregnancy in 40% of the mothers. Seventeen of the mothers received antiretroviral (ARV) medication prior to pregnancy and in 34 cases, the medication was started during pregnancy. A good virological response (i.e. HIV RNA load <1000/mL during the last trimester) to ARV medication was achieved in 36/40 (90%) of the patients in whom HI viral load measurements were performed. Of the infants, 92% were born at term, and their mean (±SD) birth weight was 3350±395 g. The Caesarean section rate was low, 25%. All newborns received ARV medication and none of the infants born to mothers with pre-delivery diagnosis of maternal HIV infection were infected. The safety and advantages of the LNG-IUS were studied prospectively (n=12) and retrospectively (n=6). The LNG-IUS was well tolerated and no cases of PID or pregnancy were noted. Menstrual bleeding was reduced significantly during use of the LNG-IUS; this was associated with a slight increase in haemoglobin levels. Serum oestradiol concentrations remained in the follicular range in all subjects. The key finding was that genital shedding of HIV RNA did not change after the insertion of the LNG-IUS. The mean annual prevalence of low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (SIL) was 15% and that of high-grade SIL was 5% among 108 systematically followed HIV-infected women during 1989 2003. A reduced CD4 lymphocyte count was associated with an increased prevalence of SIL, whereas duration of HIV infection, use of ARV medication and HI viral load were not. The cumulative risk of any type of SIL was 17% after one year and 48% after five years among patients with initially normal Pap smears. The risk of developing SIL was associated with young age and a high initial HI viral load. During the follow-up 51 subjects (n=153) displayed cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN), (16% CIN1 and 18% CIN 2-3). Only one case of cancer of the uterine cervix was detected. Pap smears were reliable in screening for CIN. Both nulliparity (p<0.01) and bacterial vaginosis (p<0.04) emerged as significant risk factors of CIN. In conclusion, a combination of universal antenatal screening and multidisciplinary management allows individualized treatment and prevents vertical transmission of HIV. Use of the LNG-IUS is safe among HIV-infected women and cervicovaginal shedding of HIV RNA is not affected by use of the LNG-IUS. The risk of cervical pre-malignant lesions is high among HIV-infected women despite systematic follow-up.

Prognostic markers in head and neck carcinoma

Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) is the sixth most common cancer worldwide. Well-known risk factors include tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption. Overall survival has improved, but is still low especially in developing countries. One reason for this is the often advanced stage of the disease at the time of diagnosis, but also lack of reliable prognostic tools to enable individualized patient treatment to improve outcome. To date, the TNM classification still serves as the best disease evaluation criterion, although it does not take into account the molecular basis of the tumor. The need for surrogate molecular markers for more accurate disease prediction has increased research interests in this field. We investigated the prevalence, physical status, and viral load of human papillomavirus (HPV) in HNSCC to determine the impact of HPV on head and neck carcinogenesis. The prevalence and genotyping of HPV were assessed with an SPF10 PCR microtiter plate-based hybridization assay (DEIA), followed by a line probe-based genotyping assay. More than half of the patients had HPV DNA in their tumor specimens. Oncogenic HPV-16 was the most common type, and coinfections with other oncogenic and benign associated types also existed. HPV-16 viral load was unevenly distributed among different tumor sites; the tonsils harbored significantly greater amounts of virus than other sites. Episomal location of HPV-16 was associated with large tumors, and both integrated and mixed forms of viral DNA were detected. In this series, we could not show that the presence of HPV DNA correlated with survival. In addition, we investigated the prevalence and genotype of HPV in laryngeal carcinoma patients in a prospective Nordic multicenter study based on fresh-frozen laryngeal tumor samples to determine whether the tumors were HPV-associated. These patients were also examined and interviewed at diagnosis for known risk factors, such as tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption, and for several other habituations to elucidate their effects on patient survival. HPV analysis was performed with the same protocols as in the first study. Only 4% of the specimens harbored HPV DNA. Heavy drinking was associated with poor survival. Heavy drinking patients were also younger than nonheavy drinkers and had a more advanced stage of disease at diagnosis. Heavy drinkers had worse oral hygiene than nonheavy drinkers; however, poor oral hygiene did not have prognostic significance. History of chronic laryngitis, gastroesophageal reflux disease, and orogenital sex contacts were rare in this series. To clarify why vocal cord carcinomas seldom metastasize, we determined tumor lymph vessel (LVD) and blood vessel (BVD) densities in HNSCC patients. We used a novel lymphatic vessel endothelial marker (LYVE-1 antibody) to locate the lymphatic vessels in HNSCC samples and CD31 to detect the blood microvessels. We found carcinomas of the vocal cords to harbor less lymphatic and blood microvessels than carcinomas arising from sites other than vocal cords. The lymphatic and blood microvessel densities did not correlate with tumor size. High BVD was strongly correlated with high LVD. Neither BVD nor LVD showed any association with survival in our series. The immune system plays an important role in tumorigenesis, as neoplastic cells have to escape the cytotoxic lymphocytes in order to survive. Several candidate HLA class II alleles have been reported to be prognostic in cervical carcinomas, an epithelial malignancy resembling HNSCC. These alleles may have an impact on head and neck carcinomas as well. We determined HLA-DRB1* and -DQB1* alleles in HNSCC patients. Healthy organ donors served as controls. The Inno-LiPA reverse dot-blot kit was used to identify alleles in patient samples. No single haplotype was found to be predictive of either the risk for head and neck cancer, or the clinical course of the disease. However, alleles observed to be prognostic in cervical carcinomas showed a similar tendency in our series. DRB1*03 was associated with node-negative disease at diagnosis. DRB1*08 and DRB1*13 were associated with early-stage disease; DRB1*04 had a lower risk for tumor relapse; and DQB1*03 and DQB1*0502 were more frequent in controls than in patients. However, these associations reached only borderline significance in our HNSCC patients.

HIV outbreak among injecting drug users in Finland

An HIV outbreak among Finnish injecting drug users (IDUs) occurred in 1998. By the end of 2005, 282 IDUs were in-fected, most of them by recombinant virus CRF01_AE of HIV. After a rapid spread, the outbreak subsided, and the prevalence of HIV among IDUs remained low (<2%). The purpose of the study was to describe the outbreak in order to recognise factors that have influenced the spread and restriction of the outbreak, and thus to find tools for HIV preven-tion. Data on Finnish IDUs newly diagnosed HIV-positive between 1998 and 2005 was collected through interviews and patient documents. Study I compared markers of disease progression between 93 Finnish IDUs and 63 Dutch IDUs. In study II, geographical spread of the HIV outbreak was examined and compared with the spatial distribution of employed males. In study III, risk behaviour data from interviews of 89 HIV-positive and 207 HIV-negative IDUs was linked, and prevalence and risk factors for unprotected sex were evaluated. In study IV, data on 238 newly diagnosed IDUs was combined with data on 675 sexually transmitted HIV cases, and risk factors for late HIV diagnosis (CD4 cell count <200/µL, or AIDS at HIV diagnosis) were analysed. Finnish IDUs infected with CRF01_AE exhibited higher viral loads than did Amsterdam IDUs infected with subtype B, but there was no difference in CD4 development. The Finnish IDU outbreak spread and was restricted socially in a marginalised IDU population and geographically in areas characterised by low proportions of employed males. Up to 40% of the cases in the two clusters outside the city centre had no contact with the centre, where needle exchange services were available since 1997. Up to 63% of HIV-positive and 80% of HIV-negative sexually active IDUs reported inconsistent condom use, which was associated with steady relationships and recent inpatient addiction care. Com-pared to other transmission groups, HIV-positive IDUs were diagnosed earlier in their infection. The proportion of late diagnosed HIV cases in all transmission groups was 23%, but was only 6% among IDUs diagnosed during the first four years of the epidemic. The high viral load in early HIV infection may have contributed to the rapid spread of recombinant virus in the Finnish outbreak. The outbreak was restricted to a marginalised IDU population, and limited spatially to local pockets of pov-erty. To prevent HIV among IDUs, these pockets should be recognised and reached early through outreach work and the distribution of needle exchange and other prevention activities. To prevent the sexual transmission of HIV among IDUs, prevention programmes should be combined with addiction care services and targeted at every IDU. The early detection of the outbreak and early implementation of needle exchange programmes likely played a crucial role in re-versing the IDU outbreak.

Advances in the Mathematical Modelling of Hepatitis C Virus Dynamics

Mathematical models have provided key insights into the pathogenesis of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in vivo, suggested predominant mechanism(s) of drug action, explained confounding patterns of viral load changes in HCV infected patients undergoing therapy, and presented a framework for therapy optimization. In this article, I present an overview of the major advances in the mathematical modeling of HCV dynamics.

Statistical and econometric analysis of the treatment of HIV/AIDS

The epidemic of HIV/AIDS in the United States is constantly changing and evolving, starting from patient zero to now an estimated 650,000 to 900,000 Americans infected. The nature and course of HIV changed dramatically with the introduction of antiretrovirals. This discourse examines many different facets of HIV from the beginning where there wasn't any treatment for HIV until the present era of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). By utilizing statistical analysis of clinical data, this paper examines where we were, where we are and projections as to where treatment of HIV/AIDS is headed.

Chapter Two describes the datasets that were used for the analyses. The primary database utilized was collected by myself from an outpatient HIV clinic. The data included dates from 1984 until the present. The second database was from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS) public dataset. The data from the MACS cover the time between 1984 and October 1992. Comparisons are made between both datasets.

Chapter Three discusses where we were. Before the first anti-HIV drugs (called antiretrovirals) were approved, there was no treatment to slow the progression of HIV. The first generation of antiretrovirals, reverse transcriptase inhibitors such as AZT (zidovudine), DDI (didanosine), DDC (zalcitabine), and D4T (stavudine) provided the first treatment for HIV. The first clinical trials showed that these antiretrovirals had a significant impact on increasing patient survival. The trials also showed that patients on these drugs had increased CD4+ T cell counts. Chapter Three examines the distributions of CD4 T cell counts. The results show that the estimated distributions of CD4 T cell counts are distinctly non-Gaussian. Thus distributional assumptions regarding CD4 T cell counts must be taken, into account when performing analyses with this marker. The results also show the estimated CD4 T cell distributions for each disease stage: asymptomatic, symptomatic and AIDS are non-Gaussian. Interestingly, the distribution of CD4 T cell counts for the asymptomatic period is significantly below that of the CD4 T cell distribution for the uninfected population suggesting that even in patients with no outward symptoms of HIV infection, there exists high levels of immunosuppression.

Chapter Four discusses where we are at present. HIV quickly grew resistant to reverse transcriptase inhibitors which were given sequentially as mono or dual therapy. As resistance grew, the positive effects of the reverse transcriptase inhibitors on CD4 T cell counts and survival dissipated. As the old era faded a new era characterized by a new class of drugs and new technology changed the way that we treat HIV-infected patients. Viral load assays were able to quantify the levels of HIV RNA in the blood. By quantifying the viral load, one now had a faster, more direct way to test antiretroviral regimen efficacy. Protease inhibitors, which attacked a different region of HIV than reverse transcriptase inhibitors, when used in combination with other antiretroviral agents were found to dramatically and significantly reduce the HIV RNA levels in the blood. Patients also experienced significant increases in CD4 T cell counts. For the first time in the epidemic, there was hope. It was hypothesized that with HAART, viral levels could be kept so low that the immune system as measured by CD4 T cell counts would be able to recover. If these viral levels could be kept low enough, it would be possible for the immune system to eradicate the virus. The hypothesis of immune reconstitution, that is bringing CD4 T cell counts up to levels seen in uninfected patients, is tested in Chapter Four. It was found that for these patients, there was not enough of a CD4 T cell increase to be consistent with the hypothesis of immune reconstitution.

In Chapter Five, the effectiveness of long-term HAART is analyzed. Survival analysis was conducted on 213 patients on long-term HAART. The primary endpoint was presence of an AIDS defining illness. A high level of clinical failure, or progression to an endpoint, was found.

Chapter Six yields insights into where we are going. New technology such as viral genotypic testing, that looks at the genetic structure of HIV and determines where mutations have occurred, has shown that HIV is capable of producing resistance mutations that confer multiple drug resistance. This section looks at resistance issues and speculates, ceterus parabis, where the state of HIV is going. This section first addresses viral genotype and the correlates of viral load and disease progression. A second analysis looks at patients who have failed their primary attempts at HAART and subsequent salvage therapy. It was found that salvage regimens, efforts to control viral replication through the administration of different combinations of antiretrovirals, were not effective in 90 percent of the population in controlling viral replication. Thus, primary attempts at therapy offer the best change of viral suppression and delay of disease progression. Documentation of transmission of drug-resistant virus suggests that the public health crisis of HIV is far from over. Drug resistant HIV can sustain the epidemic and hamper our efforts to treat HIV infection. The data presented suggest that the decrease in the morbidity and mortality due to HIV/AIDS is transient. Deaths due to HIV will increase and public health officials must prepare for this eventuality unless new treatments become available. These results also underscore the importance of the vaccine effort.

The final chapter looks at the economic issues related to HIV. The direct and indirect costs of treating HIV/AIDS are very high. For the first time in the epidemic, there exists treatment that can actually slow disease progression. The direct costs for HAART are estimated. It is estimated that the direct lifetime costs for treating each HIV infected patient with HAART is between $353,000 to $598,000 depending on how long HAART prolongs life. If one looks at the incremental cost per year of life saved it is only $101,000. This is comparable with the incremental costs per year of life saved from coronary artery bypass surgery.

Policy makers need to be aware that although HAART can delay disease progression, it is not a cure and HIV is not over. The results presented here suggest that the decreases in the morbidity and mortality due to HIV are transient. Policymakers need to be prepared for the eventual increase in AIDS incidence and mortality. Costs associated with HIV/AIDS are also projected to increase. The cost savings seen recently have been from the dramatic decreases in the incidence of AIDS defining opportunistic infections. As patients who have been on HAART the longest start to progress to AIDS, policymakers and insurance companies will find that the cost of treating HIV/AIDS will increase.