Accounting for management costs in sensitivity analyses of matrix population models

Traditional sensitivity and elasticity analyses of matrix population models have been used to inform management decisions, but they ignore the economic costs of manipulating vital rates. For example, the growth rate of a population is often most sensitive to changes in adult survival rate, but this does not mean that increasing that rate is the best option for managing the population because it may be much more expensive than other options. To explore how managers should optimize their manipulation of vital rates, we incorporated the cost of changing those rates into matrix population models. We derived analytic expressions for locations in parameter space where managers should shift between management of fecundity and survival, for the balance between fecundity and survival management at those boundaries, and for the allocation of management resources to sustain that optimal balance. For simple matrices, the optimal budget allocation can often be expressed as simple functions of vital rates and the relative costs of changing them. We applied our method to management of the Helmeted Honeyeater (Lichenostomus melanops cassidix; an endangered Australian bird) and the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) as examples. Our method showed that cost-efficient management of the Helmeted Honeyeater should focus on increasing fecundity via nest protection, whereas optimal koala management should focus on manipulating both fecundity and survival simultaneously. These findings are contrary to the cost-negligent recommendations of elasticity analysis, which would suggest focusing on managing survival in both cases. A further investigation of Helmeted Honeyeater management options, based on an individual-based model incorporating density dependence, spatial structure, and environmental stochasticity, confirmed that fecundity management was the most cost-effective strategy. Our results demonstrate that decisions that ignore economic factors will reduce management efficiency. ©2006 Society for Conservation Biology.

Stochastic E2F activation and reconciliation of phenomenological cell-cycle models.

The transition of the mammalian cell from quiescence to proliferation is a highly variable process. Over the last four decades, two lines of apparently contradictory, phenomenological models have been proposed to account for such temporal variability. These include various forms of the transition probability (TP) model and the growth control (GC) model, which lack mechanistic details. The GC model was further proposed as an alternative explanation for the concept of the restriction point, which we recently demonstrated as being controlled by a bistable Rb-E2F switch. Here, through a combination of modeling and experiments, we show that these different lines of models in essence reflect different aspects of stochastic dynamics in cell cycle entry. In particular, we show that the variable activation of E2F can be described by stochastic activation of the bistable Rb-E2F switch, which in turn may account for the temporal variability in cell cycle entry. Moreover, we show that temporal dynamics of E2F activation can be recast into the frameworks of both the TP model and the GC model via parameter mapping. This mapping suggests that the two lines of phenomenological models can be reconciled through the stochastic dynamics of the Rb-E2F switch. It also suggests a potential utility of the TP or GC models in defining concise, quantitative phenotypes of cell physiology. This may have implications in classifying cell types or states.

Mainland size variation informs predictive models of exceptional insular body size change in rodents.

The tendency for island populations of mammalian taxa to diverge in body size from their mainland counterparts consistently in particular directions is both impressive for its regularity and, especially among rodents, troublesome for its exceptions. However, previous studies have largely ignored mainland body size variation, treating size differences of any magnitude as equally noteworthy. Here, we use distributions of mainland population body sizes to identify island populations as 'extremely' big or small, and we compare traits of extreme populations and their islands with those of island populations more typical in body size. We find that although insular rodents vary in the directions of body size change, 'extreme' populations tend towards gigantism. With classification tree methods, we develop a predictive model, which points to resource limitations as major drivers in the few cases of insular dwarfism. Highly successful in classifying our dataset, our model also successfully predicts change in untested cases.

An evaluation of remifentanil-sevoflurane response surface models in patients emerging from anesthesia: model improvement using effect-site sevoflurane concentrations.

INTRODUCTION: We previously reported models that characterized the synergistic interaction between remifentanil and sevoflurane in blunting responses to verbal and painful stimuli. This preliminary study evaluated the ability of these models to predict a return of responsiveness during emergence from anesthesia and a response to tibial pressure when patients required analgesics in the recovery room. We hypothesized that model predictions would be consistent with observed responses. We also hypothesized that under non-steady-state conditions, accounting for the lag time between sevoflurane effect-site concentration (Ce) and end-tidal (ET) concentration would improve predictions. METHODS: Twenty patients received a sevoflurane, remifentanil, and fentanyl anesthetic. Two model predictions of responsiveness were recorded at emergence: an ET-based and a Ce-based prediction. Similarly, 2 predictions of a response to noxious stimuli were recorded when patients first required analgesics in the recovery room. Model predictions were compared with observations with graphical and temporal analyses. RESULTS: While patients were anesthetized, model predictions indicated a high likelihood that patients would be unresponsive (> or = 99%). However, after termination of the anesthetic, models exhibited a wide range of predictions at emergence (1%-97%). Although wide, the Ce-based predictions of responsiveness were better distributed over a percentage ranking of observations than the ET-based predictions. For the ET-based model, 45% of the patients awoke within 2 min of the 50% model predicted probability of unresponsiveness and 65% awoke within 4 min. For the Ce-based model, 45% of the patients awoke within 1 min of the 50% model predicted probability of unresponsiveness and 85% awoke within 3.2 min. Predictions of a response to a painful stimulus in the recovery room were similar for the Ce- and ET-based models. DISCUSSION: Results confirmed, in part, our study hypothesis; accounting for the lag time between Ce and ET sevoflurane concentrations improved model predictions of responsiveness but had no effect on predicting a response to a noxious stimulus in the recovery room. These models may be useful in predicting events of clinical interest but large-scale evaluations with numerous patients are needed to better characterize model performance.

Stabilizing high-dimensional prediction models using feature graphs

We investigate feature stability in the context of clinical prognosis derived from high-dimensional electronic medical records. To reduce variance in the selected features that are predictive, we introduce Laplacian-based regularization into a regression model. The Laplacian is derived on a feature graph that captures both the temporal and hierarchic relations between hospital events, diseases, and interventions. Using a cohort of patients with heart failure, we demonstrate better feature stability and goodness-of-fit through feature graph stabilization.

Genetic effects on preweaning weight gain of Nelore-Hereford calves according to different models and estimation methods

Additive and nonadditive genetic effects on preweaning weight gain (PWG) of a commercial crossbred population were estimated using different genetic models and estimation methods. The data set consisted of 103,445 records on purebred and crossbred Nelore-Hereford calves raised under pasture conditions on farms located in south, southeast, and middle west Brazilian regions. In addition to breed additive and dominance effects, the models including different epistasis covariables were tested. Models considering joint additive and environment (latitude) by genetic effects interactions were also applied. In a first step, analyses were carried out under animal models. In a second step, preadjusted records were analyzed using ordinary least squares (OLS) and ridge regression (RR). The results reinforced evidence that breed additive and dominance effects are not sufficient to explain the observed variability in preweaning traits of Bos taurus x Bos indicus calves, and that genotype x environment interaction plays an important role in the evaluation of crossbred calves. Data were ill-conditioned to estimate the effects of genotype x environment interactions. Models including these effects presented multicolinearity problems. In this case, RR seemed to be a powerful tool for obtaining more plausible and stable estimates. Estimated prediction error variances and variance inflation factors were drastically reduced, and many effects that were not significant under ordinary least squares became significant under RR. Predictions of PWG based on RR estimates were more acceptable from a biological perspective. In temperate and subtropical regions, calves with intermediate genetic compositions (close to 1/2 Nelore) exhibited greater predicted PWG. In the tropics, predicted PWG increased linearly as genotype got closer to Nelore. ©2006 American Society of Animal Science. All rights reserved.

Anti-inflammatory mechanisms of the annexin A1 protein and its mimetic peptide Ac2-26 in models of ocular inflammation in vivo and in vitro

Annexin A1 (AnxA1) is a protein that displays potent anti-inflammatory properties, but its expression in eye tissue and its role in ocular inflammatory diseases have not been well studied. We investigated the mechanism of action and potential uses of AnxA1 and its mimetic peptide (Ac2-26) in the endotoxin-induced uveitis (EIU) rodent model and in human ARPE-19 cells activated by LPS. In rats, analysis of untreated EIU after 24 and 48 h or EIU treated with topical applications or with a single s.c. injection of Ac2-26 revealed the anti-inflammatory actions of Ac2-26 on leukocyte infiltration and on the release of inflammatory mediators; the systemic administration of Boc2, a formylated peptide receptor (fpr) antagonist, abrogated the peptide's protective effects. Moreover, AnxA1-/- mice exhibited exacerbated EIU compared with wild-type animals. Immunohistochemical studies of ocular tissue showed a specific AnxA1 posttranslational modification in EIU and indicated that the fpr2 receptor mediated the anti-inflammatory actions of AnxA1. In vitro studies confirmed the roles of AnxA1 and fpr2 and the protective effects of Ac2-26 on the release of chemical mediators in ARPE-19 cells. Molecular analysis of NF-κB translocation and IL-6, IL-8, and cyclooxygenase-2 gene expression indicated that the protective effects of AnxA1 occur independently of the NF-κB signaling pathway and possibly in a posttranscriptional manner. Together, our data highlight the role of AnxA1 in ocular inflammation, especially uveitis, and suggest the use of AnxA1 or its mimetic peptide Ac2-26 as a therapeutic approach. Copyright © 2013 by The American Association of Immunologists, Inc.

Statistical models for experimental model membranes.

Biological membranes are constituted from lipid bilayers and proteins. Investigation of protein-membrane interaction, essential for biological function of cells, must rest upon solid knowledge of lipid bilayer behavior. Thus, extensive studies of an experimental model for membranes, lipid bilayers in water solution, have been undertaken in the last decades. These systems present structural, thermal and electrical properties which depend on temperature, ionic strength or concentration. In this talk, we shall discuss statistical models for lipid bilayers, as well as the relation between their properties and results for properties of lipid dispersions investigated by the laboratories supervised by Teresa Lamy (IF-USP) and Amando Ito (FFCL-USP).

Repeat length and RNA expression level are not primary determinants in CUG expansion toxicity in Drosophila models.

Evidence for an RNA gain-of-function toxicity has now been provided for an increasing number of human pathologies. Myotonic dystrophies (DM) belong to a class of RNA-dominant diseases that result from RNA repeat expansion toxicity. Specifically, DM of type 1 (DM1), is caused by an expansion of CUG repeats in the 3'UTR of the DMPK protein kinase mRNA, while DM of type 2 (DM2) is linked to an expansion of CCUG repeats in an intron of the ZNF9 transcript (ZNF9 encodes a zinc finger protein). In both pathologies the mutant RNA forms nuclear foci. The mechanisms that underlie the RNA pathogenicity seem to be rather complex and not yet completely understood. Here, we describe Drosophila models that might help unravelling the molecular mechanisms of DM1-associated CUG expansion toxicity. We generated transgenic flies that express inducible repeats of different type (CUG or CAG) and length (16, 240, 480 repeats) and then analyzed transgene localization, RNA expression and toxicity as assessed by induced lethality and eye neurodegeneration. The only line that expressed a toxic RNA has a (CTG)(240) insertion. Moreover our analysis shows that its level of expression cannot account for its toxicity. In this line, (CTG)(240.4), the expansion inserted in the first intron of CG9650, a zinc finger protein encoding gene. Interestingly, CG9650 and (CUG)(240.4) expansion RNAs were found in the same nuclear foci. In conclusion, we suggest that the insertion context is the primary determinant for expansion toxicity in Drosophila models. This finding should contribute to the still open debate on the role of the expansions per se in Drosophila and in human pathogenesis of RNA-dominant diseases.

Extended kalman filter for estimation of parameters in nonlinear state-space models of biochemical networks.

It is system dynamics that determines the function of cells, tissues and organisms. To develop mathematical models and estimate their parameters are an essential issue for studying dynamic behaviors of biological systems which include metabolic networks, genetic regulatory networks and signal transduction pathways, under perturbation of external stimuli. In general, biological dynamic systems are partially observed. Therefore, a natural way to model dynamic biological systems is to employ nonlinear state-space equations. Although statistical methods for parameter estimation of linear models in biological dynamic systems have been developed intensively in the recent years, the estimation of both states and parameters of nonlinear dynamic systems remains a challenging task. In this report, we apply extended Kalman Filter (EKF) to the estimation of both states and parameters of nonlinear state-space models. To evaluate the performance of the EKF for parameter estimation, we apply the EKF to a simulation dataset and two real datasets: JAK-STAT signal transduction pathway and Ras/Raf/MEK/ERK signaling transduction pathways datasets. The preliminary results show that EKF can accurately estimate the parameters and predict states in nonlinear state-space equations for modeling dynamic biochemical networks.

Can widely used cell type markers predict the suitability of immortalized or primary mammary epithelial cell models?

BACKGROUND Mammary cell cultures are convenient tools for in vitro studies of mammary gland biology. However, the heterogeneity of mammary cell types, e.g., glandular milk secretory epithelial or myoepithelial cells, often complicates the interpretation of cell-based data. The present study was undertaken to determine the relevance of bovine primary mammary epithelial cells isolated from American Holstein (bMECUS) or Swiss Holstein-Friesian (bMECCH) cows, and of primary bovine mammary alveolar epithelial cells stably transfected with simian virus-40 (SV-40) large T-antigen (MAC-T) for in vitro analyses. This was evaluated by testing their expression pattern of cytokeratin (CK) 7, 18, 19, vimentin, and α-smooth muscle actin (α-SMA). RESULTS The expression of the listed markers was assessed using real-time quantitative PCR, flow cytometry and immunofluorescence microscopy. Characteristic markers of the mesenchymal (vimentin), myoepithelial (α-SMA) and glandular secretory cells (CKs) showed differential expression among the studied cell cultures, partly depending on the analytical method used. The relative mRNA expression of vimentin, CK7 and CK19, respectively, was lower (P < 0.05) in immortalized than in primary mammary cell cultures. The stain index (based on flow cytometry) of CK7 and CK19 protein was lower (P < 0.05) in MAC-T than in bMECs, while the expression of α-SMA and CK18 showed an inverse pattern. Immunofluorescence microscopy analysis mostly confirmed the mRNA data, while partly disagreed with flow cytometry data (e.g., vimentin level in MAC-T). The differential expression of CK7 and CK19 allowed discriminating between immortal and primary mammary cultures. CONCLUSIONS The expression of the selected widely used cell type markers in primary and immortalized MEC cells did not allow a clear preference between these two cell models for in vitro analyses studying aspects of milk composition. All tested cell models exhibited to a variable degree epithelial and mesenchymal features. Thus, based on their characterization with widely used cell markers, none of these cultures represent an unequivocal alveolar mammary epithelial cell model. For choosing the appropriate in vitro model additional properties such as the expression profile of specific proteins of interest (e.g., transporter proteins) should equally be taken into account.

Integrating acoustic telemetry into mark-recapture models to improve the precision of apparent survival and abundance estimates

Capture-mark-recapture models are useful tools for estimating demographic parameters but often result in low precision when recapture rates are low. Low recapture rates are typical in many study systems including fishing-based studies. Incorporating auxiliary data into the models can improve precision and in some cases enable parameter estimation. Here, we present a novel application of acoustic telemetry for the estimation of apparent survival and abundance within capture-mark-recapture analysis using open population models. Our case study is based on simultaneously collecting longline fishing and acoustic telemetry data for a large mobile apex predator, the broadnose sevengill shark (Notorhynchus cepedianus), at a coastal site in Tasmania, Australia. Cormack-Jolly-Seber models showed that longline data alone had very low recapture rates while acoustic telemetry data for the same time period resulted in at least tenfold higher recapture rates. The apparent survival estimates were similar for the two datasets but the acoustic telemetry data showed much greater precision and enabled apparent survival parameter estimation for one dataset, which was inestimable using fishing data alone. Combined acoustic telemetry and longline data were incorporated into Jolly-Seber models using a Monte Carlo simulation approach. Abundance estimates were comparable to those with longline data only; however, the inclusion of acoustic telemetry data increased precision in the estimates. We conclude that acoustic telemetry is a useful tool for incorporating in capture-mark-recapture studies in the marine environment. Future studies should consider the application of acoustic telemetry within this framework when setting up the study design and sampling program.

A genome-based strategy uncovers frequent BRAF mutations in melanoma

Using a genome-scanning approach to search for oncogenes, a recent report identifies somatic mutations in the signaling gene BRAF that are particularly prevalent in melanoma.

p53-independent NOXA induction overcomes apoptotic resistance of malignant melanomas

Once melanoma metastasizes, no effective treatment modalities prolong survival in most patients. This notorious refractoriness to therapy challenges investigators to identify agents that overcome melanoma resistance to apoptosis. Whereas many survival pathways contribute to the death-defying phenotype in melanoma, a defect in apoptotic machinery previously highlighted inactivation of Apaf-1, an apoptosome component engaged after mitochondrial damage. During studies involving Notch signaling in melanoma, we observed a gamma-secretase tripeptide inhibitor (GSI; z-Leu-Leu-Nle-CHO), selected from a group of compounds originally used in Alzheimer's disease, induced apoptosis in nine of nine melanoma lines. GSI only induced G2-M growth arrest (but not killing) in five of five normal melanocyte cultures tested. Effective killing of melanoma cells by GSI involved new protein synthesis and a mitochondrial-based pathway mediated by up-regulation of BH3-only members (Bim and NOXA). p53 activation was not necessary for up-regulation of NOXA in melanoma cells. Blocking GSI-induced NOXA using an antisense (but not control) oligonucleotide significantly reduced the apoptotic response. GSI also killed melanoma cell lines with low Apaf-1 levels. We conclude that GSI is highly effective in killing melanoma cells while sparing normal melanocytes. Direct enhancement of BH3-only proteins executes an apoptotic program overcoming resistance of this lethal tumor. Identification of a p53-independent apoptotic pathway in melanoma cells, including cells with low Apaf-1, bypasses an impediment to current cytotoxic therapy and provides new targets for future therapeutic trials involving chemoresistant tumors.

Nuclear gene silencing directs reception of long-distance mRNA silencing in Arabidopsis

In plants, silencing of mRNA can be transmitted from cell to cell and also over longer distances from roots to shoots. To investigate the long-distance mechanism, WT and mutant shoots were grafted onto roots silenced for an mRNA. We show that three genes involved in a chromatin silencing pathway, NRPD1a encoding RNA polymerase IVa, RNA-dependent RNA polymerase 2 (RDR2), and DICER-like 3 (DCL3), are required for reception of long-distance mRNA silencing in the shoot. A mutant representing a fourth gene in the pathway, argonaute4 (ago4), was also partially compromised in the reception of silencing. This pathway produces 24-nt siRNAs and resulted in decapped RNA, a known substrate for amplification of dsRNA by RDR6. Activation of silencing in grafted shoots depended on RDR6, but no 24-nt siRNAs were detected in mutant rdr6 shoots, indicating that RDR6 also plays a role in initial signal perception. After amplification of decapped transcripts, DCL4 and DCL2 act hierarchically as they do in antiviral resistance to produce 21- and 22-nt siRNAs, respectively, and these guide mRNA degradation. Several dcl genotypes were also tested for their capacity to transmit the mobile silencing signal from the rootstock. dcl1-8 and a dcl2 dcl3 dcl4 triple mutant are compromised in micro-RNA and siRNA biogenesis, respectively, but were unaffected in signal transmission. © 2007 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA.