Do Households Have Rational Expectations on Future Consumption? Evidence from the Finnish Consumer Survey

Ever since its initial introduction some fifty years ago, the rational expectations paradigm has dominated the way economic theory handles uncertainty. The main assertion made by John F. Muth (1961), seen by many as the father of the paradigm, is that expectations of rational economic agents should essentially be equal to the predictions of relevant economic theory, since rational agents should use information available to them in an optimal way. This assumption often has important consequences on the results and interpretations of the models where it is applied. Although the rational expectations assumption can be applied to virtually any economic theory, the focus in this thesis is on macroeconomic theories of consumption, especially the Rational Expectations–Permanent Income Hypothesis proposed by Robert E. Hall in 1978. The much-debated theory suggests that, assuming that agents have rational expectations on their future income, consumption decisions should follow a random walk, and the best forecast of future consumption level is the current consumption level. Then, changes in consumption are unforecastable. This thesis constructs an empirical test for the Rational Expectations–Permanent Income Hypothesis using Finnish Consumer Survey data as well as various Finnish macroeconomic data. The data sample covers the years 1995–2010. Consumer survey data may be interpreted to directly represent household expectations, which makes it an interesting tool for this particular test. The variable to be predicted is the growth of total household consumption expenditure. The main empirical result is that the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), a balance figure computed from the most important consumer survey responses, does have statistically significant predictive power over the change in total consumption expenditure. The history of consumption expenditure growth itself, however, fails to predict its own future values. This indicates that the CCI contains some information that the history of consumption decisions does not, and that the consumption decisions are not optimal in the theoretical context. However, when conditioned on various macroeconomic variables, the CCI loses its predictive ability. This finding suggests that the index is merely a (partial) summary of macroeconomic information, and does not contain any significant private information on consumption intentions of households not directly deductible from the objective economic variables. In conclusion, the Rational Expectations–Permanent Income Hypothesis is strongly rejected by the empirical results in this thesis. This result is in accordance with most earlier studies conducted on the topic.

QCD mini-jets contribution to the total cross-section for pions and protons and expectations at LHC

We describe our kt-resummation model for total cross-sections and show its application to pp and ¯pp scattering. The model uses mini-jets to drive the rise of the cross-section and soft gluon resummation in the infrared region to transform the violent rise of the mini-jet cross-section into a logarithmic behaviour in agreement with the Froissart bound.

Digital student further education: FE learners' expectations and experiences of technology - synthesis report

A synthesis report based on the final report of the FE digital student study into FE students' expectations and experiences of the digital environment. The report outlines the key challenges, learning provider solutions, sector solutions and commentary on main findings. Appendix 2 includes a list of project outputs.

FE learners' expectations and experiences of technology

This briefing shares the outcomes of our work on further education and skills students' expectations and experiences of the digital environment and makes recommendations for college leaders and managers.

Minding the Gap Between Expectations and Perceptions of Democracy = Refletindo sobre a distância entre expectativas e percepções da democracia

Este trabalho utilizou modelos de nível misto para estimar as avaliações da democracia a partir de dados do documento Wave 6 do European Social Survey. Foram utilizadas novas medidas de expectativas democráticas acerca de eleições e sistemas partidários, juntamente com o item "satisfação com a democracia”, para testar os efeitos de regras eleitorais sobre a percepção da democracia.

Comparison of echogram measurements against data expectations and assumptions for distinguishing seafloor substrates

Defining types of seafloor substrate and relating them to the distribution of fish and invertebrates is an important but difficult goal. An examination of the processing steps of a commercial acoustics analyzing software program, as well as the data values produced by the proprietary first echo measurements, revealed potential benef its and drawbacks for distinguishing acoustically distinct seafloor substrates. The positive aspects were convenient processing steps such as gain adjustment, accurate bottom picking, ease of bad data exclusion, and the ability to average across successive pings in order to increase the signal-to-noise ratio. A noteworthy drawback with the processing was the potential for accidental inclusion of a second echo as if it were part of the first echo. Detailed examination of the echogram measurements quantified the amount of collinearity, revealed the lack of standardization (subtraction of mean, division by standard deviation) before principal components analysis (PCA), and showed correlations of individual echogram measurements with depth and seafloor slope. Despite the facility of the software, these previously unknown processing pitfalls and echogram measurement characteristics may have created data artifacts that generated user-derived substrate classifications, rather than actual seafloor substrate types.

Reflective practitioners: expectations vs facts

Over the years of working at school teachers gain experience that is necessary for their professional development. The teaching experience may appear of little value if teachers do not reflect upon it. Reflection is the key to success in teaching. The article presents the results of a questionnaire conducted with foreign language teachers from Gorzów Wielkopolski, Poland schools who were asked about their reflection. Many teachers (95%) reported that they reflected on their teaching and even made notes (50%). The research outcomes provide interesting facts about teachers’ reflections.

Perceptions, expectations, and informal supports influence exercise activity in frail older adults

This study aims to explore frail older adults’ perceptions of what influences their exercise behaviors. A qualitative descriptive design was used. Semi-structured, open-ended interviews were conducted with 29 frail older adults. Thematic content analysis established the findings. Frail older adults perceive exercise as a by-product of other purposeful activities such as manual work or social activities. Progression into frailty appears to be associated with a decline in non-family support, changing traditional roles within family support networks, and lower baseline activity levels. Frail older adults perceive exercise as incidental to more purposeful activities rather than an endpoint in itself. Therefore, exercise programs concentrating on functional outcomes may be more relevant for this population. Strategies that educate and promote social support networks may also benefit frail older adults.

Survival expectations of the obese: Is excess mortality reflected in perceptions?

OBJECTIVE: This study compared self-reported subjective life expectancy (i.e., probability of living to age 75) for normal-weight, overweight, and obese weight groups to examine whether individuals are internalizing information about the health risks due to excessive weight. RESEARCH METHODS AND PROCEDURES: Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, a total of 9035 individuals 51 to 61 years old were analyzed by BMI category. The primary outcome measure was individuals' reports about their own expectations of survival to age 75. Absolute and relative risks of survival were compared with published estimates of survival to age 75. RESULTS: Consistently, higher levels of BMI were associated with lower self-estimated survival probabilities. Differences relative to normal weight ranged from 4.9% (p < 0.01) for male nonsmokers to 8.8% (p < 0.001) for female nonsmokers. However, these differences were substantially less than those obtained from published survival curve estimates, suggesting that obese individuals tended to underestimate mortality risks. DISCUSSION: Individuals appeared to underestimate the mortality risks of excessive weight; thus, knowledge campaigns about the risks of obesity should remain a top priority.