939 resultados para data reduction by factor analysis


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The mouse and human malarial parasites, Plasmodium berghei and Plasmodium falciparum, respectively, synthesize heme de novo following the standard pathway observed in animals despite the availability of large amounts of heme, derived from red cell hemoglobin, which is stored as hemozoin pigment, The enzymes, delta-aminolevulinate dehydrase (ALAD), coproporphyrinogen oxidase, and ferrochelatase are present at strikingly high levels in the P, berghei infected mouse red cell in vivo, The isolated parasite has low levels of ALAD and the data clearly indicate it to be of red cell origin. The purified enzyme preparations from the uninfected red cell and the parasite are identical in kinetic properties, subunit molecular weight, cross-reaction with antibodies to the human enzyme, and N-terminal amino acid sequence. Immunogold electron microscopy of the infected culture indicates that the enzyme is present inside the parasite and, therefore, is not a contaminant, The parasite derives functional ALAD from the host and the enzyme binds specifically to isolated parasite membrane in vitro, suggestive of the involvement of a receptor in its translocation into the parasite, While, ALAD, coproporphyrinogen oxidase, and ferrochelatase from the parasite and the uninfected red cell supernatant have identical subunit molecular weights on SDS-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis and show immunological cross-reaction with antibodies to the human enzymes, as revealed by Western analysis, the first enzyme of the pathway, namely, delta-aminolevulinate synthase (ALAS) in the parasite, unlike that of the red cell host, does not cross-react with antibodies to the human enzyme, However, ALAS enzyme activity in the parasite is higher than that of the infected red cell supernatant. We therefore conclude that the parasite, while making its own ALAS, imports ALAD and perhaps most of the other enzymes of the pathway from the host to synthesize heme de novo, and this would enable it to segregate this heme from the heme derived from red cell hemoglobin degradation, ALAS of the parasite and the receptor(s) involved in the translocation of the host enzymes into the parasite would be unique drug targets.

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We believe the Babcock-Leighton process of poloidal field generation to be the main source of irregularity in the solar cycle. The random nature of this process may make the poloidal field in one hemisphere stronger than that in the other hemisphere at the end of a cycle. We expect this to induce an asymmetry in the next sunspot cycle. We look for evidence of this in the observational data and then model it theoretically with our dynamo code. Since actual polar field measurements exist only from the 1970s, we use the polar faculae number data recorded by Sheeley (1991, 2008) as a proxy of the polar field and estimate the hemispheric asymmetry of the polar field in different solar minima during the major part of the twentieth century. This asymmetry is found to have a reasonable correlation with the asymmetry of the next cycle. We then run our dynamo code by feeding information about this asymmetry at the successive minima and compare the results with observational data. We find that the theoretically computed asymmetries of different cycles compare favorably with the observational data, with the correlation coefficient being 0.73. Due to the coupling between the two hemispheres, any hemispheric asymmetry tends to get attenuated with time. The hemispheric asymmetry of a cycle either from observational data or from theoretical calculations statistically tends to be less than the asymmetry in the polar field (as inferred from the faculae data) in the preceding minimum. This reduction factor turns out to be 0.43 and 0.51 respectively in observational data and theoretical simulations.

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Reaction of the title compound (1a) with anhydrous MeOH-HCl gave 2-endo-(2,6-dimethoxyphenyl)-2-exo-methyl-5-methylbicyclo[3.2.1]octane-6,8-dione (3a), 1,5,14-timethoxy-5,8-seco-6,7-dinorestra-1,3,5(10),9(11)-tetraen-17-one (4), 1,5-dimethoxy-5,8-seco-6,7-dinorestra-1,3,5(10),8,14-pentaen-17-one (5), and 3,4,5,6-tetrahydro-2,7-dimethoxy-3,6-dimethyl-3,2,6-(13-oxopropan[1]yI[3]ylidene)-2H-1-benzoxocin (6). Structures assigned to compounds (3a), (4), and (6) are based on spectral data. The exo-tricyclic acetal structure (6) was further confirmed by the analysis of the 1H n.m.r. spectra of the isomeric alcohols (11) and (12), obtained by sodium borohydride reduction of (6).

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This thesis is a preliminary phonological description of the Tibetan-related Denjongka language of Sikkim, India. Because the language has not been much researched and the previous studies have focused on other issues than phonology, the present paper is the first of its kind. The data for this thesis was gathered in Gangtok, the capital of Sikkim, from March to May 2004. I had four language informants from four different locations in Sikkim who spoke different dialects of Denjongka. One of the informants, from whom I recorded c. 900 words and 530 sentences, was used as the main data source for the analysis. First, I will give some ethnographic background information on the people who speak Denjongka. Next, I will discuss first the segmental and then the suprasegmental phonology of the language, which were analysed much in line with American structuralism. I also used acoustic analysis enabled by the Praat-program. Eight vowel phonemes were found. The phonemic status of /E/, however, is still suspect. I present some preliminary evidence for roundedness, frontness and height assimilation among the vowels. In the interpretation adopted in this analysis, there are no diphthongs in Denjongka. Forty consonant phonemes were found: 17 plosives, 7 affricates, 5 fricatives, 5 nasals, 4 liquids and 2 approximants. Denjongka plosives and affricates have four-way aspiration/voicing distinction: voiceless aspirated, voiceless unaspirated, voiceless slightly aspirated (devoiced), and voiced unaspirated. Two voiceless nasals and two voiceless liquids were found. Two phonation types were found to be contrastive, lax/breathy and tense/creaky. Nasalisation and length in vowels are phonemic. Denjongka is an incipient tone language. Tonal phenomena, which involve mainly pitch and phonation type, are complex. Pitch is most of the time predictable from the initial consonant and the phonation type. In some cases, however, pitch is the only contrastive feature between words. The description of Denjongka in this paper differs from the traditional four-tone system, which has been used in many descriptions of Tibetan-related languages. In the four-tone system, pitch is contrastive both in the high and low register, whereas in the present analysis pitch has been established to contrast only in the high register. Lastly, the appendices include a comparative word list of the four Denjongka dialects studied in this thesis.

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The development of innovative methods of stock assessment is a priority for State and Commonwealth fisheries agencies. It is driven by the need to facilitate sustainable exploitation of naturally occurring fisheries resources for the current and future economic, social and environmental well being of Australia. This project was initiated in this context and took advantage of considerable recent achievements in genomics that are shaping our comprehension of the DNA of humans and animals. The basic idea behind this project was that genetic estimates of effective population size, which can be made from empirical measurements of genetic drift, were equivalent to estimates of the successful number of spawners that is an important parameter in process of fisheries stock assessment. The broad objectives of this study were to 1. Critically evaluate a variety of mathematical methods of calculating effective spawner numbers (Ne) by a. conducting comprehensive computer simulations, and by b. analysis of empirical data collected from the Moreton Bay population of tiger prawns (P. esculentus). 2. Lay the groundwork for the application of the technology in the northern prawn fishery (NPF). 3. Produce software for the calculation of Ne, and to make it widely available. The project pulled together a range of mathematical models for estimating current effective population size from diverse sources. Some of them had been recently implemented with the latest statistical methods (eg. Bayesian framework Berthier, Beaumont et al. 2002), while others had lower profiles (eg. Pudovkin, Zaykin et al. 1996; Rousset and Raymond 1995). Computer code and later software with a user-friendly interface (NeEstimator) was produced to implement the methods. This was used as a basis for simulation experiments to evaluate the performance of the methods with an individual-based model of a prawn population. Following the guidelines suggested by computer simulations, the tiger prawn population in Moreton Bay (south-east Queensland) was sampled for genetic analysis with eight microsatellite loci in three successive spring spawning seasons in 2001, 2002 and 2003. As predicted by the simulations, the estimates had non-infinite upper confidence limits, which is a major achievement for the application of the method to a naturally-occurring, short generation, highly fecund invertebrate species. The genetic estimate of the number of successful spawners was around 1000 individuals in two consecutive years. This contrasts with about 500,000 prawns participating in spawning. It is not possible to distinguish successful from non-successful spawners so we suggest a high level of protection for the entire spawning population. We interpret the difference in numbers between successful and non-successful spawners as a large variation in the number of offspring per family that survive – a large number of families have no surviving offspring, while a few have a large number. We explored various ways in which Ne can be useful in fisheries management. It can be a surrogate for spawning population size, assuming the ratio between Ne and spawning population size has been previously calculated for that species. Alternatively, it can be a surrogate for recruitment, again assuming that the ratio between Ne and recruitment has been previously determined. The number of species that can be analysed in this way, however, is likely to be small because of species-specific life history requirements that need to be satisfied for accuracy. The most universal approach would be to integrate Ne with spawning stock-recruitment models, so that these models are more accurate when applied to fisheries populations. A pathway to achieve this was established in this project, which we predict will significantly improve fisheries sustainability in the future. Regardless of the success of integrating Ne into spawning stock-recruitment models, Ne could be used as a fisheries monitoring tool. Declines in spawning stock size or increases in natural or harvest mortality would be reflected by a decline in Ne. This would be good for data-poor fisheries and provides fishery independent information, however, we suggest a species-by-species approach. Some species may be too numerous or experiencing too much migration for the method to work. During the project two important theoretical studies of the simultaneous estimation of effective population size and migration were published (Vitalis and Couvet 2001b; Wang and Whitlock 2003). These methods, combined with collection of preliminary genetic data from the tiger prawn population in southern Gulf of Carpentaria population and a computer simulation study that evaluated the effect of differing reproductive strategies on genetic estimates, suggest that this technology could make an important contribution to the stock assessment process in the northern prawn fishery (NPF). Advances in the genomics world are rapid and already a cheaper, more reliable substitute for microsatellite loci in this technology is available. Digital data from single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are likely to super cede ‘analogue’ microsatellite data, making it cheaper and easier to apply the method to species with large population sizes.

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Knowledge of drag force is an important design parameter in aerodynamics. Measurement of aerodynamic forces at hypersonic speed is a challenge and usually ground test facilities like shock tunnels are used to carry out such tests. Accelerometer based force balances are commonly employed for measuring aerodynamic drag around bodies in hypersonic shock tunnels. In this study, we present an analysis of the effect of model material on the performance of an accelerometer balance used for measurement of drag in impulse facilities. From the experimental studies performed on models constructed out of Bakelite HYLEM and Aluminum, it is clear that the rigid body assumption does not hold good during the short testing duration available in shock tunnels. This is notwithstanding the fact that the rubber bush used for supporting the model allows unconstrained motion of the model during the short testing time available in the shock tunnel. The vibrations induced in the model on impact loading in the shock tunnel are damped out in metallic model, resulting in a smooth acceleration signal, while the signal become noisy and non-linear when we use non-isotropic materials like Bakelite HYLEM. This also implies that careful analysis and proper data reduction methodologies are necessary for measuring aerodynamic drag for non-metallic models in shock tunnels. The results from the drag measurements carried out using a 60 degrees half angle blunt cone is given in the present analysis.

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Seat belts are effective safety devices used to protect car occupants from severe injuries and fatalities during road vehicle accidents. Despite the proven effectiveness of seat belts, seat belt use rates are quite low, especially in developing countries, such as Turkey. The general aim of the present study was to investigate a large variety of factors related to seat belt use among Turkish car occupants using different perspectives and methods and therefore, to contribute to the design of effective seat belt use interventions for increasing seat belt use rates in Turkey. Five sub-studies were conducted within the present study. In the first sub-study, environmental (e.g., road type) and psycho-social factors (e.g., belt use by other car occupants) related to the seat belt use of front-seat occupants were investigated using observation techniques. Being male, of a young age, and traveling on city roads were the main factors negatively related to seat belt use. Furthermore, seat belt use by the drivers and front-seat passengers was highly correlated and a significant predictors of each other. In the second sub-study, the motivations of the car occupants for seat belt use and non-use were investigated using interview techniques. Situational conditions, such as traveling on city roads and for short distances, and not believing in the effectiveness and relevance of seat belt use for safety, were the most frequently reported reasons for not using a seat belt. Safety, habit and avoiding punishment were among the most frequently reported reasons for using a seat belt. In the third sub-study, the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) and the Health Belief Model (HBM) were applied to seat belt use using Structural Equation Modeling techniques. The TPB model showed a good fit to the data, whereas the HBM showed a poor fit to the data. Within the TPB model, attitude and subjective norm were significant predictors of intentions to use a seat belt on both urban and rural roads. In the fourth sub-study, seat belt use frequency and motivations for seat belt use among taxi drivers were investigated and compared between free-time and work-time driving using a survey. The results showed that taxi drivers used seat belts more when driving a private car in their free-times compared to when driving a taxi during their work-times. The lack of a legal obligation to use a seat belt in city traffic and fear of being attacked or robbed by the passengers were found as two specific reasons for not using a seat belt when driving a taxi. Lastly, in the fifth sub-study, the relationship of seat belt use to driver and health behaviors was investigated using a survey. Although seat belt use was related both to health and driver behaviors, factor analysis results showed that it grouped with driver behaviors. Based on the results of the sub-studies, a tentative empirical model showing different predictors of seat belt use was proposed. According to the model, safety and normative motivations and perceived physical barriers related to seat belt use are the three important predictors of seat belt use. Keywords: Seat belt use; environmental factors; psycho-social factors; safety and normative motivations; the Theory of Planned Behavior; the Health Belief Model; health behaviors; driver behaviors; front-seat occupants; taxi drivers; Turkey.

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We study the constraints arising on the expansion parameters c and d of the pion electromagnetic form factor from the inclusion of pure spacelike data and the phase of timelike data along with one spacelike datum, using as input the first derivative of the QCD polarization amplitude Pi'(-Q(2)). These constraints when combined with other analyses, provide a valuable check on a determination of c due to Guo et al. and on our previous work where pionic contribution to the (g - 2) of the muon was used as the input. This work further illustrates the power of analyticity techniques in form factor analysis.

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To protect terrestrial ecosystems and humans from contaminants many countries and jurisdictions have developed soil quality guidelines (SQGs). This study proposes a new framework to derive SQGs and guidelines for amended soils and uses a case study based on phytotoxicity data of copper (Cu) and zinc (Zn) from field studies to illustrate how the framework could be applied. The proposed framework uses normalisation relationships to account for the effects of soil properties on toxicity data followed by a species sensitivity distribution (SSD) method to calculate a soil added contaminant limit (soil ACL) for a standard soil. The normalisation equations are then used to calculate soil ACLs for other soils. A soil amendment availability factor (SAAF) is then calculated as the toxicity and bioavailability of pure contaminants and contaminants in amendments can be different. The SAAF is used to modify soil ACLs to ACLs for amended soils. The framework was then used to calculate soil ACLs for copper (Cu) and zinc (Zn). For soils with pH of 4-8 and OC content of 1-6%, the ACLs range from 8 mg/kg to 970 mg/kg added Cu. The SAAF for Cu was pH dependant and varied from 1.44 at pH 4 to 2.15 at pH 8. For soils with pH of 4-8 and OC content of 1-6%, the ACLs for amended soils range from 11 mg/kg to 2080 mg/kg added Cu. For soils with pH of 4-8 and a CEC from 5-60, the ACLs for Zn ranged from 21 to 1470 mg/kg added Zn. A SAAF of one was used for Zn as it concentrations in plant tissue and soil to water partitioning showed no difference between biosolids and soluble Zn salt treatments, indicating that Zn from biosolids and Zn salts are equally bioavailable to plants.

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The objective of the study was to explore the dimensions of group identity in the guilds of World of Warcraft. Previous research shows that social interaction has an important role in playing games for many players. Social identities are an important aspect of self-concept and since group related cues are more salient than personal clues in computer-mediated communication, the social gaming experience was approached through group identity. In the study a new scale will be developed to measure the group identity in games. Secondary goal is to study how different guild attributes affect the group identity and third goal is to explore the connection between group identity and gaming experience and amount of play. Subjects were 1203 guild members and 106 players not in a guild. The data was gathered by an Internet survey which measured group identity with nine scales, gaming experience with three scales and guild attributes with four scales. Also various background data was gathered. The construct of group identity was analyzed with explorative factor analysis. The typical experiences of group identity was analyzed with cluster analysis and effects of guild attributes with multivariate analysis of covariance. As a result of the study a new scale was developed which measured group identity on six dimensions: self-stereotyping, public and private evaluation, importance, interconnection of self and others and awareness of content. Group identity was experienced strongest in elder middle-sized guilds that had formal rules and that emphasized social interaction. The players with strong group identity had more positive gaming experience and played World of Warcraft more per week than the players who were not in a guild or identified to guild weakly. This result encourages game developers to produce environments that enhance group identity as it seems to increase the enjoyment in games. As a whole this study proposes that group identity in guilds is constructed from the same elements as in traditional groups. If this is truly the case, guild membership may have similar positive effects on individual’s mental well-being as traditional positively evaluated group memberships have.

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The highly variable flagellin-encoding flaA gene has long been used for genotyping Campylobacter jejuni and Campylobacter coli. High-resolution melting (HRM) analysis is emerging as an efficient and robust method for discriminating DNA sequence variants. The objective of this study was to apply HRM analysis to flaA-based genotyping. The initial aim was to identify a suitable flaA fragment. It was found that the PCR primers commonly used to amplify the flaA short variable repeat (SVR) yielded a mixed PCR product unsuitable for HRM analysis. However, a PCR primer set composed of the upstream primer used to amplify the fragment used for flaA restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) analysis and the downstream primer used for flaA SVR amplification generated a very pure PCR product, and this primer set was used for the remainder of the study. Eighty-seven C. jejuni and 15 C. coli isolates were analyzed by flaA HRM and also partial flaA sequencing. There were 47 flaA sequence variants, and all were resolved by HRM analysis. The isolates used had previously also been genotyped using single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), binary markers, CRISPR HRM, and flaA RFLP.flaA HRM analysis provided resolving power multiplicative to the SNPs, binary markers, and CRISPR HRM and largely concordant with the flaA RFLP. It was concluded that HRM analysis is a promising approach to genotyping based on highly variable genes.

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Red light cameras were introduced in Victoria in August 1983, with the intention of reducing the number of accidents that result from motorists disobeying red traffic signals at signalised intersections. Accident data from 46 treated and 46 control sites from 1981 to 1986 were analysed. The analysis indicated that red light camera use resulted in a reduction in the incidence of right angle accidents, and in the number of accident casualties. Legislation was introduced in March 1986 to place the onus for red light camera offences onto the vehicle owner. This legislation was intended to improve Police efficiency and therefore increase the number of red light cameras in operation. Data supplied by the Police indicated that these aims have beneficial road safety effects.

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The aim of the present research was to examine the validity of the RAND-36 measure of health-related quality of life among the working age rehabilitation clients. The research included two cross-sectional studies and one follow-up study. The subjects of the first study (n = 794) participated in the first period of the five following types of rehabilitation: occupationally oriented medical rehabilitation, musculoskeletal rehabilitation, medical rehabilitation for job burnout, rehabilitation for supporting the work ability and capacity of disabled subjects (vocational rehabilitation) and individualized rehabilitation between October 2000 and October 2001. The subjects of the second study (n = 990) participated in the same rehabilitation during their first rehabilitation period between May 2007 and May 2008. The first subjects participated in a follow-up period no later than May 2003 with the exception of the individual rehabilitation clients (n = 588). Based on the ICF classification, the RAND-36 provides a diverse measure of the health-related quality of life and of the capacity for subjective, perceived physical and psycho-social functioning. The construct properties of the RAND-36 measure proved to be very consistent on the basis of both the cluster and confirmatory factor analyses. At the group level, the RAND-36 measure was shown to be illustrative and sensitive in differentiating the clients’ rehabilitation needs. The results of cluster analyses with the two cross-sectional data indicated a consistent five-cluster solution of rehabilitation groups on the basis of the eight subscales of health-related quality of life. Each of these clusters represented a clear difference in their need for rehabilitation. The RAND-36 measure proved to be sensitive to change. The changes observed in the pre- and post-conditions in relation to all the subscales of quality of life were statistically significant. Depending on the rehabilitation type, different changes in the subscales of the measure were observed, and these changes corresponded to the different emphasis and goals of the specific type of rehabilitation intervention. Similarly, changes in the subscales of the measure were observed in relation to the RAND groups formed by cluster analysis, which were logical and corresponded to the problem profiles of these groups. The confirmatory factor analysis indicated a two-factor solution: an index of the capacity for physical functioning (self-rated general health, bodily pain, physical functioning, physical role functioning) and an index of the capacity for psycho-social functioning (psychological well-being, social functioning, psychological role functioning and energy). These two indices describing functional capacity proved also to be sensitive to change. This two-factor solution seems to be usable for group level analyses when assessing the effects of rehabilitation. The moderately strong correlation between the RAND-36 and work ability index suggests that they partly measure the same phenomenon: perceived health-related quality of life, subjective capacity for activity and perceived work ability have strong links. As expected, the capacity for physical functioning had a stronger correlation with work ability index than with the capacity for psycho-social functioning. According to the present research, the RAND-36 measure can be considered as a screening method for rehabilitation orientation in relation to rehabilitation needs and as a follow-up measure for the health-related quality of life among the working age clients. The RAND-36 measure is also shown to be a useful instrument in estimating the benefits of rehabilitation as well as in effectiveness research.

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Germline mutations in fumarate hydratase (FH) cause hereditary leiomyomatosis and renal cell cancer (HLRCC). FH is a nuclear encoded enzyme which functions in the Krebs tricarboxylic acid cycle, and homozygous mutation in FH lead to severe developmental defects. Both uterine and cutaneous leiomyomas are components of the HLRCC phenotype. Most of these tumours show loss of the wild-type allele and, also, the mutations reduce FH enzyme activity, which indicate that FH is a tumour suppressor gene. The renal cell cancers associated with HLRCC are of rare papillary type 2 histology. Other genes involved in the Krebs cycle, which are also implicated in neoplasia are 3 of the 4 subunits encoding succinate dehydrogenase (SDH); mutations in SHDB, SDHC, and SDHD predispose to paraganglioma and phaeochromocytoma. Although uterine leiomyomas (or fibroids) are very common, the estimations of affected women ranging from 25% to 77%, not much is known about their genetic background. Cytogenetic studies have revealed that rearrangements involving chromosomes 6, 7, 12 and 14 are most commonly seen in fibroids. Deletions on the long arm of chromosome 7 have been reported to be involved in about 17 to 34 % of leiomyomas and the small commonly deleted region on 7q22 suggests that there might be an underlying tumour suppressor gene in that region. The purpose of this study was to investigate the genetic mechanisms behind the development of tumours associated with HLRCC, both renal cell cancer and uterine fibroids. Firstly, a database search at the Finnish cancer registry was conducted in order to identify new families with early-onset RCC and to test if the family history was compatible with HLRCC. Secondly, sporadic uterine fibroids were tested for deletions on 7q in order to define the minimal deleted 7q-region, followed by mutation analysis of the candidate genes. Thirdly, oligonucleotide chips were utilised to study the global gene expression profiles of uterine fibroids in order to test whether 7q-deletions and FH mutations significantly affected fibroid biology. In the screen for early-onset RCC, 214 families were identified. Subsequently, the pedigrees were constructed and clinical data obtained. One of the index cases (RCC at the age of 28) had a mother who had been diagnosed with a heart tumour, which in further investigation turned out to be a paraganglioma. This lead to an alternative hypothesis that SDH, instead of FH, could be involved. SDHA, SDHB, SDHC and SDHD were sequenced from these individuals; a germline SDHB R27X mutation was detected with loss of the wild-type allele in both tumours. These results suggest that germline mutations in the SDHB gene predispose to early-onset RCC establishing a novel form of hereditary RCC. This has immediate clinical implications in the surveillance of patients suffering from early-onset RCC and phaeochromocytoma/paraganglioma. For the studies on sporadic uterine fibroids, a set of 166 fibroids from 51 individuals were collected. The 7q LOH mapping defined a commonly deleted region of about 3.2 mega bases in 11 of the 166 tumours. The deletion was consistent with previously reported allelotyping studies of leiomyomas and it therefore suggested the presence of a tumour suppressor gene in the deleted region. Furthermore, the high-resolution aCGH-chip analysis refined the deleted region to only 2.79Mb. When combined with previous data, the commonly deleted region was only 2.3Mb. The mutation screening of the known genes within the commonly deleted region did not reveal pathogenic mutations, however. The expression microarray analysis revealed that FH-deficient fibroids, both sporadic and familial, had their distinct gene expression profile as they formed their own group in the unsupervised clustering. On the other hand, the presence or absence of 7q-deletions did not significantly alter the global gene expression pattern of fibroids, suggesting that these two groups do not have different biological backgrounds. Multiple differentially expressed genes were identified between FH wild-type and FH-mutant fibroids, and the most significant increase was seen in the expression of carbohydrate metabolism-related and hypoxia inducible factor (HIF) target genes.

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Predicting which species are likely to cause serious impacts in the future is crucial for targeting management efforts, but the characteristics of such species remain largely unconfirmed. We use data and expert opinion on tropical and subtropical grasses naturalised in Australia since European settlement to identify naturalised and high-impact species and subsequently to test whether high-impact species are predictable. High-impact species for the three main affected sectors (environment, pastoral and agriculture) were determined by assessing evidence against pre-defined criteria. Twenty-one of the 155 naturalised species (14%) were classified as high-impact, including four that affected more than one sector. High-impact species were more likely to have faster spread rates (regions invaded per decade) and to be semi-aquatic. Spread rate was best explained by whether species had been actively spread (as pasture), and time since naturalisation, but may not be explanatory as it was tightly correlated with range size and incidence rate. Giving more weight to minimising the chance of overlooking high-impact species, a priority for biosecurity, meant a wider range of predictors was required to identify high-impact species, and the predictive power of the models was reduced. By-sector analysis of predictors of high impact species was limited by their relative rarity, but showed sector differences, including to the universal predictors (spread rate and habitat) and life history. Furthermore, species causing high impact to agriculture have changed in the past 10 years with changes in farming practice, highlighting the importance of context in determining impact. A rationale for invasion ecology is to improve the prediction and response to future threats. Although our study identifies some universal predictors, it suggests improved prediction will require a far greater emphasis on impact rather than invasiveness, and will need to account for the individual circumstances of affected sectors and the relative rarity of high-impact species.