Early warnings of heart rate deterioration

Hospitals can experience difficulty in detecting and responding to early signs of patient deterioration leading to late intensive care referrals, excess mortality and morbidity, and increased hospital costs. Our study aims to explore potential indicators of physiological deterioration by the analysis of vital-signs. The dataset used comprises heart rate (HR) measurements from MIMIC II waveform database, taken from six patients admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) and diagnosed with severe sepsis. Different indicators were considered: 1) generic early warning indicators used in ecosystems analysis (autocorrelation at-1-lag (ACF1), standard deviation (SD), skewness, kurtosis and heteroskedasticity) and 2) entropy analysis (kernel entropy and multi scale entropy). Our preliminary findings suggest that when a critical transition is approaching, the equilibrium state changes what is visible in the ACF1 and SD values, but also by the analysis of the entropy. Entropy allows to characterize the complexity of the time series during the hospital stay and can be used as an indicator of regime shifts in a patient’s condition. One of the main problems is its dependency of the scale used. Our results demonstrate that different entropy scales should be used depending of the level of entropy verified.

Enforceability of leasehold covenants and the landlord and tenant (Covenants) Act 1995

Describes the impact of the English Landlord and Tenant (Covenants) Act 1995, reforming liability in the context of new leases, extending the 'touching and concerning' requirement so all covenants 'run with the land' (with some exceptions), and abolishing the enduring liability of the original tenants and landlords. Explains that landlords will have more freedom to prescribe in advance the circumstances in which they consent to an assignment, referring also to changes in default notices requiring an 'early warning' to defaulters, and overriding leases, with a remedy for former tenants. Expects future leases to be shorter as landlords realize they cannot hold original tenants liable any more.

Measuring water activity of aviation fuel using a polymer optical fiber Bragg grating

Poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) based polymer optical fiber Bragg gratings have been used for measuring water activity of aviation fuel. Jet A-1 samples with water content ranging from 100% ERH (wet fuel) to 10 ppm (dried fuel), have been conditioned and calibrated for measurement. The PMMA based optical fiber grating exhibits consistent response and a good sensitivity of 59±3pm/ppm (water content in mass). This water activity measurement allows PMMA based optical fiber gratings to detect very tiny amounts of water in fuels that have a low water saturation point, potentially giving early warning of unsafe operation of a fuel system. © 2014 SPIE.

Reviewing the evidence base for the Children and Young People Safety Thermometer (CYPST):a mixed studies review

The objective was to identify evidence to support use of specific harms for the development of a children and young people's safety thermometer (CYPST). We searched PubMed, Web of Knowledge, and Cochrane Library post-1999 for studies in pediatric settings about pain, skin integrity, extravasation injury, and use of pediatric early warning scores (PEWS). Following screening, nine relevant articles were included. Convergent synthesis methods were used drawing on thematic analysis to combine findings from studies using a range of methods (qualitative, quantitative, and mixed methods). A review of PEWS was identified so other studies on this issue were excluded. No relevant studies about extravasation injury were identified. The synthesized results therefore focused on pain and skin integrity. Measurement and perception of pain were complex and not always carried out according to best practice. Skin abrasions were common and mostly associated with device related injuries. The findings demonstrate a need for further work on perceptions of pain and effective communication of concerns about pain between parents and nursing staff. Strategies for reducing device-related injuries warrant further research focusing on prevention. Together with the review of PEWS, these synthesized findings support the inclusion of pain, skin integrity, and PEWS in the CYPST.

WASOP, a qualitative methodology for waste minimization: systems thinking, HAZOP principles and nuclear waste

Purpose – The international nuclear community continues to face the challenge of managing both the legacy waste and the new wastes that emerge from ongoing energy production. The UK is in the early stages of proposing a new convention for its nuclear industry, that is: waste minimisation through closely managing the radioactive source which creates the waste. This paper proposes a new technique (called waste and source material operability study (WASOP)) to qualitatively analyse a complex, waste-producing system to minimise avoidable waste and thus increase the protection to the public and the environment. Design/methodology/approach – WASOP critically considers the systemic impact of up and downstream facilities on the minimisation of nuclear waste in a facility. Based on the principles of HAZOP, the technique structures managers' thinking on the impact of mal-operations in interlinking facilities in order to identify preventative actions to reduce the impact on waste production of those mal-operations.' Findings – WASOP was tested with a small group of experienced nuclear regulators and was found to support their qualitative examination of waste minimisation and help them to work towards developing a plan of action. Originality/value – Given the newness of this convention, the wider methodology in which WASOP sits is still in development. However, this paper communicates the latest thinking from nuclear regulators on decision-making methodology for supporting waste minimisation and is hoped to form part of future regulatory guidance. WASOP is believed to have widespread potential application to the minimisation of many other forms of waste, including that from other energy sectors and household/general waste.

The properties of advanced alumimium alloy systems

2XXX and 7XXX series aluminium alloys have been the accepted materials for airframe construction for many decades. However, only minor improvements in properties have been possible by the development of these alloys since the early 1970's. The constant need to reduce weight in aircraft has therefore led to a resurgence in the research for higher performance aluminium alloys. The reason for this investigation was to evaluate possible alternatives for the existing conventional aluminium alloy 2014 for aircraft wheel applications. Three new technologies in alloy development were considered: a metal matrix composite, an aluminium-lithium alloy and a powder metallurgical alloy. The basic mechanical properties of these advanced materials have already been established to an extent, but their fatigue behaviour has yet to be fully understood. The purpose of this work was to investigate the fatigue properties of the materials concerned, in both air and an aerated 3.5% NaCl solution, and compare these properties to 2014-T6. As well as the basic mechanical properties, fatigue crack propagation data is presented for all of the materials concerned. Additionally, fatigue crack initiation data is presented for the aluminium-lithium alloy and 2014. The D.C. electrical potential method was used to monitor crack growth. Of the materials investigated, the most promising was the aluminium-lithium alloy. However, short transverse properties need to be increased and the commercial cost of the material needs to be decreased before it can be considered as a direct replacement for 2014 for aircraft structural applications. It was considered that the cost of the powder metallurgical alloy would limit its further use. The metal matrix composite material proved to be unsuitable for most ambient temperature applications

Numerically optimized implementations, mitigation and simulations of polarisation mode dispersion in real-time transmission systems

The aim of this thesis is to present numerical investigations of the polarisation mode dispersion (PMD) effect. Outstanding issues on the side of the numerical implementations of PMD are resolved and the proposed methods are further optimized for computational efficiency and physical accuracy. Methods for the mitigation of the PMD effect are taken into account and simulations of transmission system with added PMD are presented. The basic outline of the work focusing on PMD can be divided as follows. At first the widely-used coarse-step method for simulating the PMD phenomenon as well as a method derived from the Manakov-PMD equation are implemented and investigated separately through the distribution of a state of polarisation on the Poincaré sphere, and the evolution of the dispersion of a signal. Next these two methods are statistically examined and compared to well-known analytical models of the probability distribution function (PDF) and the autocorrelation function (ACF) of the PMD phenomenon. Important optimisations are achieved, for each of the aforementioned implementations in the computational level. In addition the ACF of the coarse-step method is considered separately, based on the result which indicates that the numerically produced ACF, exaggerates the value of the correlation between different frequencies. Moreover the mitigation of the PMD phenomenon is considered, in the form of numerically implementing Low-PMD spun fibres. Finally, all the above are combined in simulations that demonstrate the impact of the PMD on the quality factor (Q=factor) of different transmission systems. For this a numerical solver based on the coupled nonlinear Schrödinger equation is created which is otherwise tested against the most important transmission impairments in the early chapters of this thesis.

Development of real-time process control systems using formal techniques

A major application of computers has been to control physical processes in which the computer is embedded within some large physical process and is required to control concurrent physical processes. The main difficulty with these systems is their event-driven characteristics, which complicate their modelling and analysis. Although a number of researchers in the process system community have approached the problems of modelling and analysis of such systems, there is still a lack of standardised software development formalisms for the system (controller) development, particular at early stage of the system design cycle. This research forms part of a larger research programme which is concerned with the development of real-time process-control systems in which software is used to control concurrent physical processes. The general objective of the research in this thesis is to investigate the use of formal techniques in the analysis of such systems at their early stages of development, with a particular bias towards an application to high speed machinery. Specifically, the research aims to generate a standardised software development formalism for real-time process-control systems, particularly for software controller synthesis. In this research, a graphical modelling formalism called Sequential Function Chart (SFC), a variant of Grafcet, is examined. SFC, which is defined in the international standard IEC1131 as a graphical description language, has been used widely in industry and has achieved an acceptable level of maturity and acceptance. A comparative study between SFC and Petri nets is presented in this thesis. To overcome identified inaccuracies in the SFC, a formal definition of the firing rules for SFC is given. To provide a framework in which SFC models can be analysed formally, an extended time-related Petri net model for SFC is proposed and the transformation method is defined. The SFC notation lacks a systematic way of synthesising system models from the real world systems. Thus a standardised approach to the development of real-time process control systems is required such that the system (software) functional requirements can be identified, captured, analysed. A rule-based approach and a method called system behaviour driven method (SBDM) are proposed as a development formalism for real-time process-control systems.

A comparison of integrated biomass to electricity systems

This thesis presents a comparison of integrated biomass to electricity systems on the basis of their efficiency, capital cost and electricity production cost. Four systems are evaluated: combustion to raise steam for a steam cycle; atmospheric gasification to produce fuel gas for a dual fuel diesel engine; pressurised gasification to produce fuel gas for a gas turbine combined cycle; and fast pyrolysis to produce pyrolysis liquid for a dual fuel diesel engine. The feedstock in all cases is wood in chipped form. This is the first time that all three thermochemical conversion technologies have been compared in a single, consistent evaluation.The systems have been modelled from the transportation of the wood chips through pretreatment, thermochemical conversion and electricity generation. Equipment requirements during pretreatment are comprehensively modelled and include reception, storage, drying and communication. The de-coupling of the fast pyrolysis system is examined, where the fast pyrolysis and engine stages are carried out at separate locations. Relationships are also included to allow learning effects to be studied. The modelling is achieved through the use of multiple spreadsheets where each spreadsheet models part of the system in isolation and the spreadsheets are combined to give the cost and performance of a whole system.The use of the models has shown that on current costs the combustion system remains the most cost-effective generating route, despite its low efficiency. The novel systems only produce lower cost electricity if learning effects are included, implying that some sort of subsidy will be required during the early development of the gasification and fast pyrolysis systems to make them competitive with the established combustion approach. The use of decoupling in fast pyrolysis systems is a useful way of reducing system costs if electricity is required at several sites because• a single pyrolysis site can be used to supply all the generators, offering economies of scale at the conversion step. Overall, costs are much higher than conventional electricity generating costs for fossil fuels, due mainly to the small scales used. Biomass to electricity opportunities remain restricted to niche markets where electricity prices are high or feed costs are very low. It is highly recommended that further work examines possibilities for combined beat and power which is suitable for small scale systems and could increase revenues that could reduce electricity prices.

Reactive processing of polyolefins using antioxidant systems

Various monoacrylic compounds containing a hindered phenol function (e.g.3,5-di-tert.-butyl-4-hydroxy benzyl alcohol, DBBA and vinyl-3-[3',5'-di-tert.-butyl-4-hydroxy phenyl] propionate, VDBP), and a benzophenone function (2-hydroxy-4-[beta hydroxy ethoxy] benzophenone, HAEB) were synthesised and used as reactive antioxidants (AO's) for polypropylene (PP). These compounds were reacted with PP melt in the presence of low concentration of a free radical generator such a peroxide (reactive processing) to produce bound-antioxidant concentrates. The binding reaction of these AO's onto PP was found to be low and this was shown to be mainly due to competing reactions such as homopolymerisation of the antioxidant. At high concentrations of peroxide, higher binding efficiency resulted, but, this was accompanied by melt degradation of the polymer. In a special reactive processing procedure, a di- or a trifunctional reactant (referred to as coagent), e.g.tri-methylol propane tri-acrylate, Tris, and Divinyl benzene, DVB, were used with the antioxidant and this has led to an enhanced efficiency of the grating reaction of antioxidants on the polymer in the melt. The evidence suggests that this is due to copolymerisation of the antioxidants with the coagent as well as grafting of the copolymers onto the polymer backbone. Although the 'bound' AO's containing a UV stabilising function showed lower overall stabilisation effect than the unbound analogues before extraction, they were still much more effective when subjected to exhaustive solvent extraction. Furthermore, a very effective synergistic stabilising activity when two reactive AO's containing thermal and UV stabilising functions e.g. DBBA and HAEB, were reactively processed with PP in the presence of a coagent. The stabilising effectiveness of such a synergist was much higher than that of the unbound analogues both before and after extraction. Analysis using the GPC technique of concentrates containing bound-DBBA processed in the presence of Tris coagent showed higher molecular weight (Mn), compared to that of a polymer processed without the coagent, but was still lower than that of the control processed PP with no additives. This indicates that Tris coagent may inhibit further melt degradation of the polymer. Model reactions of DBBA in liquid hydrocarbon (decalin) and analysis of the products using FTIR and NMR spectroscopy showed the formation of grafted DBBA onto decalin molecules as well as homopolymerisation of the AO. In the presence of Tris coagent, copolymerisation of DBBA with the Tris inevitably occured; which was followed by grafting of the copolymer onto the decalin, FTIR and NMR results of the polymer concentrates containing bound-DBBA processed with and without Tris, showed similar behaviour as the above model reactions. This evidence supports the effect of Tris in enhancing the efficiency of the reaction of DBBA in the polymer melt. Reactive procesing of HAEB in polymer melts exhibited crosslinking formation In the early stages of the reaction, however, in the final stage, the crosslinked structure was 'broken down' or rearranged to give an almost gel free polymer with high antioxidant binding efficiency.

A study of adaptive load balancing algorithms for distributed systems

With the advent of distributed computer systems with a largely transparent user interface, new questions have arisen regarding the management of such an environment by an operating system. One fertile area of research is that of load balancing, which attempts to improve system performance by redistributing the workload submitted to the system by the users. Early work in this field concentrated on static placement of computational objects to improve performance, given prior knowledge of process behaviour. More recently this has evolved into studying dynamic load balancing with process migration, thus allowing the system to adapt to varying loads. In this thesis, we describe a simulated system which facilitates experimentation with various load balancing algorithms. The system runs under UNIX and provides functions for user processes to communicate through software ports; processes reside on simulated homogeneous processors, connected by a user-specified topology, and a mechanism is included to allow migration of a process from one processor to another. We present the results of a study of adaptive load balancing algorithms, conducted using the aforementioned simulated system, under varying conditions; these results show the relative merits of different approaches to the load balancing problem, and we analyse the trade-offs between them. Following from this study, we present further novel modifications to suggested algorithms, and show their effects on system performance.

An Exploration of parametric software cost estimating models for Jackson Systems Development

Most parametric software cost estimation models used today evolved in the late 70's and early 80's. At that time, the dominant software development techniques being used were the early 'structured methods'. Since then, several new systems development paradigms and methods have emerged, one being Jackson Systems Development (JSD). As current cost estimating methods do not take account of these developments, their non-universality means they cannot provide adequate estimates of effort and hence cost. In order to address these shortcomings two new estimation methods have been developed for JSD projects. One of these methods JSD-FPA, is a top-down estimating method, based on the existing MKII function point method. The other method, JSD-COCOMO, is a sizing technique which sizes a project, in terms of lines of code, from the process structure diagrams and thus provides an input to the traditional COCOMO method.The JSD-FPA method allows JSD projects in both the real-time and scientific application areas to be costed, as well as the commercial information systems applications to which FPA is usually applied. The method is based upon a three-dimensional view of a system specification as opposed to the largely data-oriented view traditionally used by FPA. The method uses counts of various attributes of a JSD specification to develop a metric which provides an indication of the size of the system to be developed. This size metric is then transformed into an estimate of effort by calculating past project productivity and utilising this figure to predict the effort and hence cost of a future project. The effort estimates produced were validated by comparing them against the effort figures for six actual projects.The JSD-COCOMO method uses counts of the levels in a process structure chart as the input to an empirically derived model which transforms them into an estimate of delivered source code instructions.

Development of performance models for co-operative information systems in an organisational context

The thesis reports of a study into the effect upon organisations of co-operative information systems (CIS) incorporating flexible communications, group support and group working technologies. A review of the literature leads to the development of a model of effect based upon co-operative business tasks. CIS have the potential to change how co-operative business tasks are carried out and their principal effect (or performance) may therefore be evaluated by determining to what extent they are being employed to perform these tasks. A significant feature of CIS use identified is the extent to which they may be designed to fulfil particular tasks, or by contrast, may be applied creatively by users in an emergent fashion to perform tasks. A research instrument is developed using a survey questionnaire to elicit users judgements of the extent to which a CIS is employed to fulfil a range of co-operative tasks. This research instrument is applied to a longitudinal study of Novell GroupWise introduction at Northamptonshire County Council during which qualitative as well as quantitative data were gathered. A method of analysis of questionnaire results using principles from fuzzy mathematics and artificial intelligence is developed and demonstrated. Conclusions from the longitudinal study include the importance of early experiences in setting patterns for use for CIS, the persistence of patterns of use over time and the dominance of designed usage of the technology over emergent use.

A contingency framework for information systems development

This research concerns information systems and information systems development. The thesis describes an approach to information systems development called Multiview. This is a methodology which seeks to combine the strengths of a number of different, existing approaches in a coherent manner. Many of these approaches are radically different in terms of concepts, philosophy, assumptions, methods, techniques and tools. Three case studies are described presenting Multiview 'in action'. The first is used mainly to expose the strengths and weaknesses of an early version of the approach discussed in the thesis. Tools and techniques are described in the thesis which aim to strengthen the approach. Two further case studies are presented to illustrate the use of this second version of Multiview. This is not put forward as an 'ideal methodology' and the case studies expose some of the difficulties and practical problems of information systems work and the use of the methodology. A more contingency based approach to information systems development is advocated using Multiview as a framework rather than a prescriptive tool. Each information systems project and the use of the framework is unique, contingent on the particular problem situation. The skills of different analysts, the backgrounds of users and the situations in which they are constrained to work have always to be taken into account in any project. The realities of the situation will cause departure from the 'ideal methodology' in order to allow for the exigencies of the real world. Multiview can therefore be said to be an approach used to explore the application area in order to develop an information system.

A systems approach to public sector budgeting: the case of the planning, programming, budgeting system for the health and personal social services

The aim of this thesis is to examine the specific contextual factors affecting the applicability and development of the planning, programming, budgeting system (P.P.B.S.) as a systems approach to public sector budgeting. The concept of P.P.B.S. as a systems approach to public sector budgeting will first be developed and the preliminary hypothesis that general contextual factors may be classified under political, structural and cognitive headings will be put forward. This preliminary hypothesis will be developed and refined using American and early British experience. The refined hypothesis will then be tested in detail in the case of the English health and personal social services (H.P.S.S.), The reasons for this focus are that it is the most recent, the sole remaining, and the most significant example in British central government outside of defence, and is fairly representative of non-defence government programme areas. The method of data collection relies on the examination of unpublished and difficult to obtain central government, health and local authority documents, and interviews with senior civil servants and public officials. The conclusion will be that the political constraints on, or factors affecting P.P.B.S., vary with product characteristics and cultural imperatives on pluralistic decision-making; that structural constraints vary with the degree of coincidence of programme and organisation structure and with the degree of controllability of the organisation; and finally, that cognitive constraints vary according to product characteristics, organisational responsibilities, and analytical effort.