Real-Time Bayesian Analysis of Ground Motion Envelopes for Earthquake Early Warning

Current earthquake early warning systems usually make magnitude and location predictions and send out a warning to the users based on those predictions. We describe an algorithm that assesses the validity of the predictions in real-time. Our algorithm monitors the envelopes of horizontal and vertical acceleration, velocity, and displacement. We compare the observed envelopes with the ones predicted by Cua & Heaton's envelope ground motion prediction equations (Cua 2005). We define a "test function" as the logarithm of the ratio between observed and predicted envelopes at every second in real-time. Once the envelopes deviate beyond an acceptable threshold, we declare a misfit. Kurtosis and skewness of a time evolving test function are used to rapidly identify a misfit. Real-time kurtosis and skewness calculations are also inputs to both probabilistic (Logistic Regression and Bayesian Logistic Regression) and nonprobabilistic (Least Squares and Linear Discriminant Analysis) models that ultimately decide if there is an unacceptable level of misfit. This algorithm is designed to work at a wide range of amplitude scales. When tested with synthetic and actual seismic signals from past events, it works for both small and large events.

Future of earthquake early warning : quantifying uncertainty and making fast automated decisions for applications

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems have been rapidly developing over the past decade. Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has an EEW system that was operating during the 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake in Japan, and this increased the awareness of EEW systems around the world. While longer-time earthquake prediction still faces many challenges to be practical, the availability of shorter-time EEW opens up a new door for earthquake loss mitigation. After an earthquake fault begins rupturing, an EEW system utilizes the first few seconds of recorded seismic waveform data to quickly predict the hypocenter location, magnitude, origin time and the expected shaking intensity level around the region. This early warning information is broadcast to different sites before the strong shaking arrives. The warning lead time of such a system is short, typically a few seconds to a minute or so, and the information is uncertain. These factors limit human intervention to activate mitigation actions and this must be addressed for engineering applications of EEW. This study applies a Bayesian probabilistic approach along with machine learning techniques and decision theories from economics to improve different aspects of EEW operation, including extending it to engineering applications.

Existing EEW systems are often based on a deterministic approach. Often, they assume that only a single event occurs within a short period of time, which led to many false alarms after the Tohoku earthquake in Japan. This study develops a probability-based EEW algorithm based on an existing deterministic model to extend the EEW system to the case of concurrent events, which are often observed during the aftershock sequence after a large earthquake.

To overcome the challenge of uncertain information and short lead time of EEW, this study also develops an earthquake probability-based automated decision-making (ePAD) framework to make robust decision for EEW mitigation applications. A cost-benefit model that can capture the uncertainties in EEW information and the decision process is used. This approach is called the Performance-Based Earthquake Early Warning, which is based on the PEER Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering method. Use of surrogate models is suggested to improve computational efficiency. Also, new models are proposed to add the influence of lead time into the cost-benefit analysis. For example, a value of information model is used to quantify the potential value of delaying the activation of a mitigation action for a possible reduction of the uncertainty of EEW information in the next update. Two practical examples, evacuation alert and elevator control, are studied to illustrate the ePAD framework. Potential advanced EEW applications, such as the case of multiple-action decisions and the synergy of EEW and structural health monitoring systems, are also discussed.

New applications that come from extending seismic networks into buildings

This thesis describes engineering applications that come from extending seismic networks into building structures. The proposed applications will benefit the data from the newly developed crowd-sourced seismic networks which are composed of low-cost accelerometers. An overview of the Community Seismic Network and the earthquake detection method are addressed. In the structural array components of crowd-sourced seismic networks, there may be instances in which a single seismometer is the only data source that is available from a building. A simple prismatic Timoshenko beam model with soil-structure interaction (SSI) is developed to approximate mode shapes of buildings using natural frequency ratios. A closed form solution with complete vibration modes is derived. In addition, a new method to rapidly estimate total displacement response of a building based on limited observational data, in some cases from a single seismometer, is presented. The total response of a building is modeled by the combination of the initial vibrating motion due to an upward traveling wave, and the subsequent motion as the low-frequency resonant mode response. Furthermore, the expected shaking intensities in tall buildings will be significantly different from that on the ground during earthquakes. Examples are included to estimate the characteristics of shaking that can be expected in mid-rise to high-rise buildings. Development of engineering applications (e.g., human comfort prediction and automated elevator control) for earthquake early warning system using probabilistic framework and statistical learning technique is addressed.

Synthetic, kinetic and mechanistic studies in early transition metal systems. I. α- and β-hydrogen elimination reactions in derivatives of permethyltitanocene, -zirconocene, and -hafnocene. II. The reactions of aluminum alkyls with derivatives of permethylniobocene

The thermal decomposition of Cp*Ti(CH_3)_2 (Cp*≡ ƞ^5-C_5Me_5) toluene solution follows cleanly first-order kinetics and produces a single titanium product Cp*(C_5Me_4CH_2)Ti(CH_3) concurrent with the evolution of one equivalent of methane. Labeling studies using Cp*_2Ti- (CD_3)_2 and (Cp*-d_(15))_2Ti(CH_3)_2 show the decomposition to be intramolecular and the methane to be produced by the coupling of a methyl group with a hydrogen from the other TiCH_3 group. Activation parameters, ΔH^‡ and ΔS^‡, and kinetic deuterium isotope effects have been measured. The alternative decomposition pathways of α-hydrogen abstraction and a-hydrogen elimination, both leading to a titanium-methylidene intermediate, are discussed.

The insertion of unactivated acetylenes into the metal-hydride bonds of Cp*_2MH_2 (M = Zr, Hf) proceeds rapidly at low temperature to form monoand/ or bisinsertion products, dependent upon the steric bulk of the acetylene substituents. Cp*_2M(H)(C(Me)=CHMe), Cp*_2M(H)(CH=CHCMe_3), Cp*_2M(H)-(CH=CHPh), Cp*_2M(CH=CHPh)_2, Cp*_2M(CH=CHCH_3)_2 and Cp*_2Zr- (CH=CHCH_2CH_3)_2 have been isolated and characterized. To extend the study of unsaturated-carbon ligands, Cp*_2M(C≡CCH_3)_2 have been prepared by treating Cp*_2MCl_2 with LiC≡CCH_3. The reactivity of many of these complexes with carbon monoxide and dihydrogen is surveyed. The mono(2- butenyl) complexes Cp*_2M(H)(C(Me)=CHMe) rearrange at room temperature, forming the crotyl-hydride species Cp*_2M(H)(ƞ^3-C_4H_7). The bis(propenyl) and bis(l-butenyl) zirconium complexes Cp*_2Zr(CH=CHR)_2 (R = CH_3, CH_2CH_3) also rearrange, forming zirconacyclopentenes. Labeling studies, reaction chemistry, and kinetic measurements, including deuterium isotope effects, demonstrate that the unusual 6-hydrogen elimination from an sp^2-hybridized carbon is the first step in these latter rearrangements but is not observed in the former. Details of these mechanisms and the differences in reactivity of the zirconium and hafnium complexes are discussed.

The reactions of hydride- and alkyl-carbonyl derivatives of permethylniobocene with equimolar amounts of trialkylaluminum reagents occur rapidly producing the carbonyl adducts Cp*_2Nb(R)(COAlR'_3) (R = H, CH_3, CH_2CH_3, CH_2CH_2Ph, C(Me)=CHMe; R' = Me, Et). The hydride adduct Cp*_2NbH_3•AlEt_3 has also been formed. In solution, each of these compounds exists in equilibrium with the uncomplexed species. The formation constants for Cp*_2Nb(H)(COA1R'_R) have been measured. They indicate the steric bulk of the Cp* ligands plays a deciding factor in the isolation of the first example of an aluminum Lewis acid bound to a carbonyl-oxygen in preference to a metalhydride. Reactions of Cp*_2Nb(H)CO with other Lewis acids and of the one:one adducts with H_2, CO and C_2H_4 are also discussed.

Cp*_2Nb(H)(C_2H_4) also reacts with equimolar amounts of trialkylaluminum reagents, forming a one:one complex that ^1H NMR spectroscopy indicates contains a Nb-CH_2CH_2-Al bridge. This adduct also exists in equilibrium with the uncomplexed species in solution. The formation constant for Cp*_2N+/b(H)(CH_2CH_2ĀlEt_3) has been measured. Reactions of Cp*_2Nb(H)(C_2H_4) with other Lewis acids and the reactions of Cp*_2N+b(H)- (CH_2CH_2ĀlEt_3) with CO and C_2H_4 are described, as are the reactions of Cp_*2Nb(H)(CH_2=CHR) (R = Me, Ph), Cp*_2Nb(H)(CH_3C≡CCH_3) and Cp*_2Ti-(C_2H_4) with AlEt_3.

Constraints on the carbon cycle and climate during the early evolution of animals

One of the greatest challenges in science lies in disentangling causality in complex, coupled systems. This is illustrated no better than in the dynamic interplay between the Earth and life. The early evolution and diversification of animals occurred within a backdrop of global change, yet reconstructing the potential role of the environment in this evolutionary transition is challenging. In the 200 million years from the end-Cryogenian to the Ordovician, enigmatic Ediacaran fauna explored body plans, animals diversified and began to biomineralize, forever changing the ocean's chemical cycles, and the biological community in shallow marine ecosystems transitioned from a microbial one to an animal one.

In the following dissertation, a multi-faceted approach combining macro- and micro-scale analyses is presented that draws on the sedimentology, geochemistry and paleontology of the rocks that span this transition to better constrain the potential environmental changes during this interval.

In Chapter 1, the potential of clumped isotope thermometry in deep time is explored by assessing the importance of burial and diagenesis on the thermometer. Eocene- to Precambrian-aged carbonates from the Sultanate of Oman were analyzed from current burial depths of 350-5850 meters. Two end-member styles of diagenesis independent of burial depth were observed.

Chapters 2, 3 and 4 explore the fallibility of the Ediacaran carbon isotope record and aspects of the sedimentology and geochemistry of the rocks preserving the largest negative carbon isotope excursion on record---the Shuram Excursion. Chapter 2 documents the importance of temperature, fluid composition and mineralogy on the delta 18-O min record and interrogates the bulk trace metal signal. Chapter 3 explores the spatial variability in delta 13-C recorded in the transgressive Johnnie Oolite and finds a north-to-south trend recording the onset of the excursion. Chapter 4 investigates the nature of seafloor precipitation during this excursion and more broadly. We document the potential importance of microbial respiratory reactions on the carbonate chemistry of the sediment-water interface through time.

Chapter 5 investigates the latest Precambrian sedimentary record in carbonates from the Sultanate of Oman, including how delta 13-C and delta 34-S CAS vary across depositional and depth gradients. A new model for the correlation of the Buah and Ara formations across Oman is presented. Isotopic results indicate delta 13-C varies with relative eustatic change and delta 34-S CAS may vary in absolute magnitude across Oman.

Chapter 6 investigates the secular rise in delta 18-Omin in the early Paleozoic by using clumped isotope geochemistry on calcitic and phosphatic fossils from the Cambrian and Ordovician. Results do not indicate extreme delta 18-O seawater depletion and instead suggest warmer equatorial temperatures across the early Paleozoic.

Bis(thiophenolate)pyridine pincer ligands and trivalent zirconocene complexes relevant to early transition metal polymerization catalysts

Two major topics are covered: the first chapter is focused on the development of post-metallocene complexes for propylene polymerization. The second and third chapters investigate the consequences of diisobutylaluminum hydride (HAlⁱBu₂) additives in zirconocene based polymerization systems.

The synthesis, structure, and solution behavior of early metal complexes with a new tridentate LX₂ type ligand, bis(thiophenolate)pyridine ((SNS) = (2-C₆H₄S)₂-2,6-C₅H₃N) are investigated. SNS complexes of Ti, Zr, and Ta having dialkylamido coligands were synthesized and structurally characterized. The zirconium complex, (SNS)Zr(NMe₂)₂, displays C₂ symmetry in the solid state. Solid-state structures of tantalum complexes (SNS)Ta(NMe₂)₃ and (SNS)TaCl(NEt₂)₂ also display pronounced C₂ twisting of the SNS ligand. 1D and 2D NMR experiments show that (SNS)Ta(NMe₂)₃ is fluxional with rotation about the Ta N(amide) bonds occurring on the NMR timescale. The fluxional behavior of (SNS)TaCl(NEt₂)₂ in solution was also studied by variable temperature ¹H NMR. Observation of separate signals for the diastereotopic protons of the methylene unit of the diethylamide indicates that the complex remains locked on the NMR timescale in one diastereomeric conformation at temperatures below -50 °C.

Reduction of Zr(IV) metallocenium cations with sodium amalgam (NaHg) produces EPR signals assignable to Zr(III) metallocene complexes. Thus, chloro-bridged heterobinuclear ansa-zirconocenium cation [((SBI))Zr(μ-Cl)₂AlMe₂]⁺B(C₆F₅)_4¯ (SBI = rac-dimethylsilylbis(1-indenyl)), gives rise to an EPR signal assignable to the complex (SBI)Zr^III(μ-Cl)₂AlMe₂, while (SBI)Zr^III-Me and (SBI)Zr^III(-H)2AlⁱBu₂ are formed by reduction of [(SBI)Zr(μ-Me)₂AlMe₂]⁺B(C₆F₅)_4¯ and [(SBI)Zr(μ-H)₃(AlⁱBu₂)₂]⁺B(C₆F₅)4¯, respectively. These products are also formed, along with (SBI)Zr^III-ⁱBu and [(SBI)Zr^III]⁺ AlR4¯ when (SBI)ZrMe₂ reacts with HAlⁱBu₂, eliminating isobutane en route to the Zr(III) complex. Studies concerning the interconversion reactions between these and other (SBI)Zr(III) complexes and reaction mechanisms involved in their formation are also reported.

The addition of HAlⁱBu₂ to precatalyst [(SBI)Zr(µ-H)₃(AlⁱBu₂)₂]⁺ significantly slows the polymerization of propylene and changes the kinetics of polymerization from 1st to 2nd order with respect to propylene. This is likely due to competitive inhibition by HAlⁱBu₂. When the same reaction is investigated using [(ⁿBuCp)₂Zr(μ-H)₃(AlⁱBu₂)₂]⁺, hydroalumination between propylene and HAlⁱBu₂ is observed instead of propylene polymerization.

The astrophysics of strongly interacting systems

This thesis presents investigations in four areas of theoretical astrophysics: the production of sterile neutrino dark matter in the early Universe, the evolution of small-scale baryon perturbations during the epoch of cosmological recombination, the effect of primordial magnetic fields on the redshifted 21-cm emission from the pre-reionization era, and the nonlinear stability of tidally deformed neutron stars.

In the first part of the thesis, we study the asymmetry-driven resonant production of 7 keV-scale sterile neutrino dark matter in the primordial Universe at temperatures T >~ 100 MeV. We report final DM phase space densities that are robust to uncertainties in the nature of the quark-hadron transition. We give transfer functions for cosmological density fluctuations that are useful for N-body simulations. We also provide a public code for the production calculation.

In the second part of the thesis, we study the instability of small-scale baryon pressure sound waves during cosmological recombination. We show that for relevant wavenumbers, inhomogenous recombination is driven by the transport of ionizing continuum and Lyman-alpha photons. We find a maximum growth factor less than ≈ 1.2 in 10⁷ random realizations of initial conditions. The low growth factors are due to the relatively short duration of the recombination epoch.

In the third part of the thesis, we propose a method of measuring weak magnetic fields, of order 10^-19 G (or 10^-21 G if scaled to the present day), with large coherence lengths in the inter galactic medium prior to and during the epoch of cosmic reionization. The method utilizes the Larmor precession of spin-polarized neutral hydrogen in the triplet state of the hyperfine transition. We perform detailed calculations of the microphysics behind this effect, and take into account all the processes that affect the hyperfine transition, including radiative decays, collisions, and optical pumping by Lyman-alpha photons.

In the final part of the thesis, we study the non-linear effects of tidal deformations of neutron stars (NS) in a compact binary. We compute the largest three- and four-mode couplings among the tidal mode and high-order p- and g-modes of similar radial wavenumber. We demonstrate the near-exact cancellation of their effects, and resolve the question of the stability of the tidally deformed NS to leading order. This result is significant for the extraction of binary parameters from gravitational wave observations.

Deep near-infrared spectroscopy of high-redshift galaxies: the physical growth of passive systems

The assembly history of massive galaxies is one of the most important aspects of galaxy formation and evolution. Although we have a broad idea of what physical processes govern the early phases of galaxy evolution, there are still many open questions. In this thesis I demonstrate the crucial role that spectroscopy can play in a physical understanding of galaxy evolution. I present deep near-infrared spectroscopy for a sample of high-redshift galaxies, from which I derive important physical properties and their evolution with cosmic time. I take advantage of the recent arrival of efficient near-infrared detectors to target the rest-frame optical spectra of z > 1 galaxies, from which many physical quantities can be derived. After illustrating the applications of near-infrared deep spectroscopy with a study of star-forming galaxies, I focus on the evolution of massive quiescent systems.

Most of this thesis is based on two samples collected at the W. M. Keck Observatory that represent a significant step forward in the spectroscopic study of z > 1 quiescent galaxies. All previous spectroscopic samples at this redshift were either limited to a few objects, or much shallower in terms of depth. Our first sample is composed of 56 quiescent galaxies at 1 < z < 1.6 collected using the upgraded red arm of the Low Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (LRIS). The second consists of 24 deep spectra of 1.5 < z < 2.5 quiescent objects observed with the Multi-Object Spectrometer For Infra-Red Exploration (MOSFIRE). Together, these spectra span the critical epoch 1 < z < 2.5, where most of the red sequence is formed, and where the sizes of quiescent systems are observed to increase significantly.

We measure stellar velocity dispersions and dynamical masses for the largest number of z > 1 quiescent galaxies to date. By assuming that the velocity dispersion of a massive galaxy does not change throughout its lifetime, as suggested by theoretical studies, we match galaxies in the local universe with their high-redshift progenitors. This allows us to derive the physical growth in mass and size experienced by individual systems, which represents a substantial advance over photometric inferences based on the overall galaxy population. We find a significant physical growth among quiescent galaxies over 0 < z < 2.5 and, by comparing the slope of growth in the mass-size plane dlogR_e/dlogM_∗ with the results of numerical simulations, we can constrain the physical process responsible for the evolution. Our results show that the slope of growth becomes steeper at higher redshifts, yet is broadly consistent with minor mergers being the main process by which individual objects evolve in mass and size.

By fitting stellar population models to the observed spectroscopy and photometry we derive reliable ages and other stellar population properties. We show that the addition of the spectroscopic data helps break the degeneracy between age and dust extinction, and yields significantly more robust results compared to fitting models to the photometry alone. We detect a clear relation between size and age, where larger galaxies are younger. Therefore, over time the average size of the quiescent population will increase because of the contribution of large galaxies recently arrived to the red sequence. This effect, called progenitor bias, is different from the physical size growth discussed above, but represents another contribution to the observed difference between the typical sizes of low- and high-redshift quiescent galaxies. By reconstructing the evolution of the red sequence starting at z ∼ 1.25 and using our stellar population histories to infer the past behavior to z ∼ 2, we demonstrate that progenitor bias accounts for only half of the observed growth of the population. The remaining size evolution must be due to physical growth of individual systems, in agreement with our dynamical study.

Finally, we use the stellar population properties to explore the earliest periods which led to the formation of massive quiescent galaxies. We find tentative evidence for two channels of star formation quenching, which suggests the existence of two independent physical mechanisms. We also detect a mass downsizing, where more massive galaxies form at higher redshift, and then evolve passively. By analyzing in depth the star formation history of the brightest object at z > 2 in our sample, we are able to put constraints on the quenching timescale and on the properties of its progenitor.

A consistent picture emerges from our analyses: massive galaxies form at very early epochs, are quenched on short timescales, and then evolve passively. The evolution is passive in the sense that no new stars are formed, but significant mass and size growth is achieved by accreting smaller, gas-poor systems. At the same time the population of quiescent galaxies grows in number due to the quenching of larger star-forming galaxies. This picture is in agreement with other observational studies, such as measurements of the merger rate and analyses of galaxy evolution at fixed number density.

Thermopower in Two-Dimensional Electron Systems

The subject of this thesis is the measurement and interpretation of thermopower in high-mobility two-dimensional electron systems (2DESs). These 2DESs are realized within state-of-the-art GaAs/AlGaAs heterostructures that are cooled to temperatures as low as T = 20 mK. Much of this work takes place within strong magnetic fields where the single-particle density of states quantizes into discrete Landau levels (LLs), a regime best known for the quantum Hall effect (QHE). In addition, we review a novel hot-electron technique for measuring thermopower of 2DESs that dramatically reduces the influence of phonon drag.

Early chapters concentrate on experimental materials and methods. A brief overview of GaAs/AlGaAs heterostructures and device fabrication is followed by details of our cryogenic setup. Next, we provide a primer on thermopower that focuses on 2DESs at low temperatures. We then review our experimental devices, temperature calibration methods, as well as measurement circuits and protocols.

Latter chapters focus on the physics and thermopower results in the QHE regime. After reviewing the basic phenomena associated with the QHE, we discuss thermopower in this regime. Emphasis is given to the relationship between diffusion thermopower and entropy. Experimental results demonstrate this relationship persists well into the fractional quantum Hall (FQH) regime.

Several experimental results are reviewed. Unprecedented observations of the diffusion thermopower of a high-mobility 2DES at temperatures as high as T = 2 K are achieved using our hot-electron technique. The composite fermion (CF) effective mass is extracted from measurements of thermopower at LL filling factor ν = 3/2. The thermopower versus magnetic field in the FQH regime is shown to be qualitatively consistent with a simple entropic model of CFs. The thermopower at ν = 5/2 is shown to be quantitatively consistent with the presence of non-Abelian anyons. An abrupt collapse of thermopower is observed at the onset of the reentrant integer quantum Hall effect (RIQHE). And the thermopower at temperatures just above the RIQHE transition suggests the existence of an unconventional conducting phase.

Dynamics of non-Abelian Aharonov-Bohm systems

This thesis examines several examples of systems in which non-Abelian magnetic flux and non-Abelian forms of the Aharonov-Bohm effect play a role. We consider the dynamical consequences in these systems of some of the exotic phenomena associated with non-Abelian flux, such as Cheshire charge holonomy interactions and non-Abelian braid statistics. First, we use a mean-field approximation to study a model of U(2) non-Abelian anyons near its free-fermion limit. Some self-consistent states are constructed which show a small SU(2)-breaking charge density that vanishes in the fermionic limit. This is contrasted with the bosonic limit where the SU(2) asymmetry of the ground state can be maximal. Second, a global analogue of Chesire charge is described, raising the possibility of observing Cheshire charge in condensedmatter systems. A potential realization in superfluid He-3 is discussed. Finally, we describe in some detail a method for numerically simulating the evolution of a network of non-Abelian (S₃) cosmic strings, keeping careful track of all magnetic fluxes and taking full account of their non-commutative nature. I present some preliminary results from this simulation, which is still in progress. The early results are suggestive of a qualitatively new, non-scaling behavior.

Cosmic Explosions: Observations Of Infant Hydrogen-Free Supernovae Towards An Understanding Of Their Parent Systems

Radiation in the first days of supernova explosions contains rich information about physical properties of the exploding stars. In the past three years, I used the intermediate Palomar Transient Factory to conduct one-day cadence surveys, in order to systematically search for infant supernovae. I show that the one-day cadences in these surveys were strictly controlled, that the realtime image subtraction pipeline managed to deliver transient candidates within ten minutes of images being taken, and that we were able to undertake follow-up observations with a variety of telescopes within hours of transients being discovered. So far iPTF has discovered over a hundred supernovae within a few days of explosions, forty-nine of which were spectroscopically classified within twenty-four hours of discovery.

Our observations of infant Type Ia supernovae provide evidence for both the single-degenerate and double-degenerate progenitor channels. On the one hand, a low-velocity Type Ia supernova iPTF14atg revealed a strong ultraviolet pulse within four days of its explosion. I show that the pulse is consistent with the expected emission produced by collision between the supernova ejecta and a companion star, providing direct evidence for the single degenerate channel. By comparing the distinct early-phase light curves of iPTF14atg to an otherwise similar event iPTF14dpk, I show that the viewing angle dependence of the supernova-companion collision signature is probably responsible to the difference of the early light curves. I also show evidence for a dark period between the supernova explosion and the first light of the radioactively-powered light curve. On the other hand, a peculiar Type Ia supernova iPTF13asv revealed strong near-UV emission and absence of iron in the spectra within the first two weeks of explosion, suggesting a stratified ejecta structure with iron group elements confined to the slow-moving part of the ejecta. With its total ejecta mass estimated to exceed the Chandrasekhar limit, I show that the stratification and large mass of the ejecta favor the double-degenerate channel.

In a separate approach, iPTF found the first progenitor system of a Type Ib supernova iPTF13bvn in the pre-explosion HST archival mages. Independently, I used the early-phase optical observations of this supernova to constrain its progenitor radius to be no larger than several solar radii. I also used its early radio detections to derive a mass loss rate of 3e-5 solar mass per year for the progenitor right before the supernova explosion. These constraints on the physical properties of the iPTF13bvn progenitor provide a comprehensive data set to test Type Ib supernova theories. A recent HST revisit to the iPTF13bvn site two years after the supernova explosion has confirmed the progenitor system.

Moving forward, the next frontier in this area is to extend these single-object analyses to a large sample of infant supernovae. The upcoming Zwicky Transient Facility with its fast survey speed, which is expected to find one infant supernova every night, is well positioned to carry out this task.