Case and partnership reproduction numbers for a curable sexually transmitted infection

Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) are, by definition, transmitted between sexual partners. For curable STIs an infected index case can potentially re-infect the same partner multiple times. Thus, R0, the average number of secondary infections one typical infected individual will produce during his or her infectious period is not necessarily the same as the average number of secondary cases (infected persons). Here we introduce the new concept of the case reproduction number (Rc). In addition, we define the partnership reproduction number (Rp) as the average number of secondary partnerships consisting of two infected individuals one typical infected individual will produce over his or her infectious lifetime. Rp takes into account clearance and re-infection within partnerships, which results in a prolongation of the duration of the infectious period. The two new reproduction numbers were derived for a deterministic pair model with serial monogamous partnerships using infection parameters for Chlamydia trachomatis, an example of a curable STI. We showed that re-infection within partnerships means that curable STIs can be sustained endemically even when the average number of secondary cases a person produces during his or her infectious period is below one.

Estimating the Reproduction Number of Ebola Virus (EBOV) During the 2014 Outbreak in West Africa

The 2014 Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreak in West Africa is the largest outbreak of the genus Ebolavirus to date. To better understand the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to know the number of secondary cases generated by an infected index case in the absence and presence of control measures, i.e., the basic and effective reproduction number. In this study, I describe the EBOV epidemic using an SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) model and fit the model to the most recent reported data of infected cases and deaths in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. The maximum likelihood estimates of the basic reproduction number are 1.51 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.50-1.52) for Guinea, 2.53 (95% CI: 2.41-2.67) for Sierra Leone and 1.59 (95% CI: 1.57-1.60) for Liberia. The model indicates that in Guinea and Sierra Leone the effective reproduction number might have dropped to around unity by the end of May and July 2014, respectively. In Liberia, however, the model estimates no decline in the effective reproduction number by end-August 2014. This suggests that control efforts in Liberia need to be improved substantially in order to stop the current outbreak.

Copying, emergence, and digital reproduction

This talk combines concepts of the copying of manuscripts in the age before mechanical reproduction (as described in W. Benjamin’s famous Artwork-essay), of the emergence of non-vertical evolution (as to be found in textual ‘contamination’ and in horizontal gene transfer alike), and of the electronic reproduction of such phenomena (as presented in scholarly digital editions and phylogenetic trees). The guiding idea is that ‘copying’, ‘emergence’, and ‘(digital) reproduction’ enable variation depending on particular physical or biological forms, on contextual or environmental conditions, as well as on user habits or receptive fields. – Is it possible to develop a theory of copying and reproduction on this base? The material of the talk will be drawn from the Parzival-Project, a critical electronic edition of an Arthurian romance, composed by the German poet Wolfram von Eschenbach shortly after 1200 and transmitted in over eighty witnesses.

State of the art: Reproduction and pregnancy in rheumatic diseases

Throughout the last decade, increasing awareness has been raised on issues related to reproduction in rheumatic diseases including basic research to clarify the important role of estrogens in the etiology and pathophysiology of immune/inflammatory diseases. Sub- or infertility is a heterogeneous condition that can be related to immunological mechanisms, to pregnancy loss, to disease burden, to therapy, and to choices in regard to family size. Progress in reproductive medicine has made it possible for more patients with rheumatic disease to have children. Active disease in women with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) affects their children's birth weight and may have long-term effects on their future health status. Pregnancy complications as preeclampsia and intrauterine growth restriction are still increased in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and antiphospholipid syndrome (APS), however, biomarkers can monitor adverse events, and several new therapies may improve outcomes. Pregnancies in women with APS remain a challenge, and better therapies for the obstetric APS are needed. New prospective studies indicate improved outcomes for pregnancies in women with rare diseases like systemic sclerosis and vasculitis. TNF inhibitors hold promise for maintaining remission in rheumatological patients and may be continued at least in the first half of pregnancy. Pre-conceptional counseling and interdisciplinary management of pregnancies are essential for ensuring optimal pregnancy outcomes.

Thiacloprid–Nosema ceranae interactions in honey bees: Host survivorship but not parasite reproduction is dependent on pesticide dose

Interactions between stressors contribute to the recently reported increase in losses of honey bee colonies. Here we demonstrated that a synergistic effect on mortality by the low toxic, commonly used neonicotinoid thiacloprid and the nearly ubiquitous gut parasite Nosemaceranae is dependent on the pesticide dose. Furthermore, thiacloprid had a negative influence on N.ceranae reproduction. Our results highlight that interactions among honey bee health stressors can be dynamic and should be studied across a broader range of combinations.

The effect of nontemporal stimulus size on perceived duration as assessed by the method of reproduction

Perceived duration is assumed to be positively related to nontemporal stimulus magnitude. Most recently, the finding that larger stimuli are perceived to last longer has been challenged to represent a mere decisional bias induced by the use of comparative duration judgments. Therefore, in the present study, the method of temporal reproduction was applied as a psychophysical procedure to quantify perceived duration. Another major goal was to investigate the influence of attention on the effect of visual stimulus size on perceived duration. For this purpose, an additional dual-task paradigm was employed. Our results not only converged with previous findings in demonstrating a functional positive relationship between nontemporal stimulus size and perceived duration, but also showed that the effect of stimulus size on perceived duration was not confined to comparative duration judgments. Furthermore, the effect of stimulus size proved to be independent of attentional resources allocated to stimulus size; nontemporal visual stimulus information does not need to be processed intentionally to influence perceived duration. Finally, the effect of nontemporal stimulus size on perceived duration was effectively modulated by the duration of the target intervals, suggesting a hitherto largely unrecognized role of temporal context for the effect of nontemporal stimulus size to become evident.

Horn Growth and Reproduction in a Long-Lived Male Mammal: No Compensation for Poor Early-Life Horn Growth

Secondary sexual traits in males of polygynous species are important determinants of reproductive success. It is, however, unknown if and how the development of continuously growing traits at different life-stages is related to reproduction in long-lived male mammals. In this study, we evaluated the relationship of early and late horn growth on social status and reproduction in long-lived male Alpine ibex (Capra ibex). For this, we analysed individual horn growth and assessed its effect on dominance and reproduction. No evidence was detected for compensatory horn growth, as late-life horn growth positively depended on early-life horn growth in males. Still, individuals with longer horn segments grown during early adulthood experienced a stronger age-dependent length decline in annual horn growth during the late development. Accordingly, a divergence between individual growth potential and realized horn growth late in life has to be assumed. Residual age-specific horn length and length of early grown horn segments both positively affected dominance and reproductive success, whereas, contrary to our expectation, no significant effect of the length of horn segments grown during the late development was detected. Suspected higher somatic costs incurred by high-quality males during their late development might at least partly be responsible for this finding. Overall, our study suggests that the total length of horns and their early development in long-lived male Alpine ibex is a reliable indicator of reproductive success and that individuals may be unable to compensate for poor early-life growth performance at a later point in life.

Rapid drop in the reproduction number during the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) experienced a confined rural outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) with 69 reported cases from July to October 2014. Understanding the transmission dynamics during the outbreak can provide important information for anticipating and controlling future EVD epidemics. I fitted an EVD transmission model to previously published data of this outbreak and estimated the basic reproduction number R 0 = 5.2 (95% CI [4.0-6.7]). The model suggests that the net reproduction number Rt fell below unity 28 days (95% CI [25-34] days) after the onset of symptoms in the index case. This study adds to previous epidemiological descriptions of the 2014 EVD outbreak in DRC, and is consistent with the notion that a rapid implementation of control interventions helped reduce further spread.