Effect of temperature and precipitation on salmonellosis cases in South-East Queensland, Australia: An observational study

Objective Foodborne illnesses in Australia, including salmonellosis, are estimated to cost over $A1.25 billion annually. The weather has been identified as being influential on salmonellosis incidence, as cases increase during summer, however time series modelling of salmonellosis is challenging because outbreaks cause strong autocorrelation. This study assesses whether switching models is an improved method of estimating weather–salmonellosis associations. Design We analysed weather and salmonellosis in South-East Queensland between 2004 and 2013 using 2 common regression models and a switching model, each with 21-day lags for temperature and precipitation. Results The switching model best fit the data, as judged by its substantial improvement in deviance information criterion over the regression models, less autocorrelated residuals and control of seasonality. The switching model estimated a 5°C increase in mean temperature and 10 mm precipitation were associated with increases in salmonellosis cases of 45.4% (95% CrI 40.4%, 50.5%) and 24.1% (95% CrI 17.0%, 31.6%), respectively. Conclusions Switching models improve on traditional time series models in quantifying weather–salmonellosis associations. A better understanding of how temperature and precipitation influence salmonellosis may identify where interventions can be made to lower the health and economic costs of salmonellosis.

Editorial: In 2035, will all bacteria be multidrug-resistant? No

The spread of multidrug-resistant (MDR) bacteria has reached a threatening level. Extended-spectrum betalactamase- producing enterobacteriaceae (ESBLE) are now endemic in many hospitals worldwide as well as in the community, while resistance rates continue to rise steadily in Acinetobacter baumannii and Pseudomonas aeruginosa [1]. Even more alarming is the dissemination of carbapenemase-producing enterobacteriaceae (CPE), causing therapeutic and organizational problems in hospitals facing outbreaks or endemicity. This context could elicit serious concerns for the coming two decades; nevertheless, effective measures exist to stop the amplification of the problem and several axes of prevention remain to be fully exploited, leaving room for realistic hopes, at least for many parts of the world...