Effect of temperature and precipitation on salmonellosis cases in South-East Queensland, Australia: An observational study


Autoria(s): Stephen, Dimity Maree; Barnett, Adrian Gerard
Data(s)

25/02/2016

Resumo

Objective Foodborne illnesses in Australia, including salmonellosis, are estimated to cost over $A1.25 billion annually. The weather has been identified as being influential on salmonellosis incidence, as cases increase during summer, however time series modelling of salmonellosis is challenging because outbreaks cause strong autocorrelation. This study assesses whether switching models is an improved method of estimating weather–salmonellosis associations. Design We analysed weather and salmonellosis in South-East Queensland between 2004 and 2013 using 2 common regression models and a switching model, each with 21-day lags for temperature and precipitation. Results The switching model best fit the data, as judged by its substantial improvement in deviance information criterion over the regression models, less autocorrelated residuals and control of seasonality. The switching model estimated a 5°C increase in mean temperature and 10 mm precipitation were associated with increases in salmonellosis cases of 45.4% (95% CrI 40.4%, 50.5%) and 24.1% (95% CrI 17.0%, 31.6%), respectively. Conclusions Switching models improve on traditional time series models in quantifying weather–salmonellosis associations. A better understanding of how temperature and precipitation influence salmonellosis may identify where interventions can be made to lower the health and economic costs of salmonellosis.

Formato

application/pdf

Identificador

http://eprints.qut.edu.au/93621/

Publicador

BMJ Publishing Group

Relação

http://eprints.qut.edu.au/93621/3/93621.pdf

DOI:10.1136/bmjopen-2015-010204

Stephen, Dimity Maree & Barnett, Adrian Gerard (2016) Effect of temperature and precipitation on salmonellosis cases in South-East Queensland, Australia: An observational study. BMJ Open, 6(2), Article Number:-e010204.

Direitos

Copyright 2016 The Author(s)

This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/

Fonte

Faculty of Health; Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation; School of Public Health & Social Work

Palavras-Chave #111706 Epidemiology #salmonellosis #temperature #switching models #precipitation #Queensland
Tipo

Journal Article