分布式水文模型的误差分析

分布式水文模型以其具有明确物理意义的参数结构和对空间分异性的全面反映,能够准确详尽地描述和模拟流域内真实的降水径流过程而被广泛需求和关注。在模拟土地利用、土地覆盖、水土流失等各种变化过程的水文响应,面源污染、陆面过程、气候变化影响评价等诸多领域都有广泛的应用。模型的预报精度和误差至关重要,决定了模型的应用和推广。在分析分布式水文模型建立和验证过程的基础上,提出了模型的4类误差来源:被排除在外的因素引起的误差,实测历史记录资料的随机或系统误差,参数误差和模型结构误差,讨论了各类误差的分析与计算方法,为模型的发展和成长提供了依据。

青藏高原东部混农季节性放牧及其对高山林线格局的影响

混农季节性放牧（agropastoral transhumance）通过作物种植和畜牧生产相结合的方式对不同海拔高度带上的资源进行相互补充利用，在亚洲兴都库什地区、青藏高原、横断山、东部及南部非洲、南美安第斯地区等具有悠久的历史。这种传统的生计系统几千年以来一直是居住在该地区的人类社会和自然生态系统相互作用的主要形式之一。这种传统的资源利用方式与山地自然植被以及特殊的山地人类文化和社会特征具有密切的协同演变关系。认识和理解这一关系，是山地生态学和人类学的核心科学问题之一。近年来，山地生态系统的多重功能性及动态演变对山区社会经济可持续发展的重要意义受到人们的不断关注。本文通过对云南省德钦县的12个自然村的混农季节性放牧以及对云南德钦、四川壤塘等山地植被格局特别是高海拔地带植被格局的的详细调查，探讨青藏高原东缘地区混农季节性放牧的主要特征、系统构成及相互关系，及其在全球变化、经济全球化和市场化及现代化过程中的变化趋势，分析混农季节性放牧与高山林线格局及生态系统的互动关系，旨在探讨山地地区人类活动与自然生态系统之间的互动关系，从而为山区社会经济可持续发展、环境建设和生物多样性保护等国家战略提供理论依据。 调查结果表明，混农季节性放牧是一种适应青藏高原东部高山峡谷地区环境因子及自然资源呈明显的垂直分布、资源数量稀少而时空分布异质性极高的生存环境的一种传统经济形式。这种传统的畜牧业的主要生产目的仍然是提供当地基本生存所需的产品，饲养牲口的种类和数量取决于农户的当地需求并且受资源的限制，因而维持在比较低的水平的。分布在不同海拔高度的放牧资源在一年中被牲口利用的时间也不同，互为补充，共同构成混农季节性放牧的资源基础。根据各社区永久居住点的位置和该村的土地资源特别是牧草地资源的分布范围，牲口迁移的距离和格局有较大的差异。。天然牧场仍然是最主要的畜牧业生产资源。混农季节性放牧中的农业系统和牧业系统互为补充，共同构成调查地区完整的的生计系统，农耕活动为放牧活动提供精饲料如粮食等和冬季饲料如秸秆， 其数量往往成为家庭畜牧业生产规模的主要决定因子之一。 通过对牲口数量和结构、牲口的时空迁移格局、牧业活动在整个经济活动中的相对重要性以及牧业活动和作物种植的关系方面的研究分析，混农季节性放牧在近几十年发生了深刻的变化。主要表现在牲口数量总体下降，牲口组成发生变化，牲口移动性降低、牧业活动的经济重要性下降以及牧业活动和种植活动之间的相互依存度降低等。上述变化的根本驱动力是发生在当地、地区及全球尺度上的环境、政治、社会经济、技术和文化等的变化，从而造成当地群众畜牧生产目标、土地利用和劳动力的分布等发生了变化。当地生计系统发生的改变可能会带来对方面而深刻的政治、社会经济、文化和生态影响。 混农季节性放牧这种古老的传统生计策略面临着许多挑战，如冬季饲料短缺、草场退化、缺乏市场竞争力、经济重要性降低、对年轻人缺乏吸引力、国家缺乏专门的政策指导等。与此同时，经济全球化、市场经济、新技术的应用、替代生计机会的增加、国家对于山地生态系统的作用的重新定位等也为传统生计系统转型、实现社会与生态共赢创造了机遇。 混农季节性放牧活动对亚高山及树线交错带生态系统系统的互动方式主要体现在以下几个方面：（1）牲口啃食、践踏等影响森林群落更新，改变森林群落的组成和结构，从而影响森林群落的演替进程和植被格局。林线边缘是搭建夏棚的首选地点，因此林线及树线交错地带就成了牲口活动的主要场所之一；（2）利用火烧开辟、维持和改良高山牧场； 3）在亚高山火灾迹地的放牧活动能够阻止火烧迹地的顺向演替； 4）牧民在林线附近获取建材和薪材等活动影响高山林线附近森林的结构和功能。 在调查区域，梅里雪山、白马雪山、甲午雪山的林线海拔高度在4200-4300m之间； 四川雅江、理塘一线，林线位置多在4300-4400m；四川壤塘二林场一带的林线主体在4100-4200m，在个别地区达到4300m； 在贡嘎山的南坡和东坡一带，林线位置在3600-3700m；而在四川松潘一带，林线位置主体在3700-3800米左右。树线高度的分布趋势和林线一致。混农季节性放牧及其有关人类利用活动使研究地区很多地方高山林线降低、树线交错带宽变窄或消失。在研究地区，总体情况是，阳坡和半阳坡（南坡、西南坡等）的林线和树线比阴坡和半阴坡（北坡、东北坡等）低，变化幅度达20-200m。这种差异主要是为了开辟牧场而人为清除了南向坡自然林线及其以上的植被从而使林线位置下降所致。在南坡自然林线保留得比较好的地方，林线和树线依然可以达到甚至超过北坡林线和树线的高度。放牧活动抑制了高山林线带火烧迹地的天然更新，从而使林线位置保持在目前的位置。 放牧活动对高山林线带森林群落更新的影响是显著的。自然林线内的乔木个体密度特别是新生苗和幼苗的密度大大高于非自然林线。没有放牧的自然林线及树线交错带内的I级个体（新生苗）密度达到725-2917株/公顷，而与之相对的处理样地内I级个体的密度只有0-228株/公顷；II级个体（高度10-50cm）也表现出类似的趋势，在没有放牧的自然林线及树线交错带样方内，其密度达到550-5208株/，而在放牧处理样方内只有14-321株/公顷。在非自然林线带样地内，在有正常放牧的样地内，完全缺乏I级个体。 从相对比例来看，没有放牧的样方内的I、II级个体在全部个体中所占的比例显著高于有放牧活动的样方。放牧使林线交错带的乔木幼苗数量显著减少，从而影响林线及树线交错带森林群落的天然更新过程。林线和树线交错带的灌木对乔木幼苗具有重要的保护作用，能够为树线树种如冷杉等幼苗的定居体提供有利的微气候环境，同时保护苗免受牲口的啃食和践踏。火烧以后接着进行放牧能够100%地抑制高山林线带的幼苗更新。 高山牧场放牧强度降低、使用时间缩短而低海拔地带放牧强度增加是研究地区混农季节性放牧系统的一个显著变化。这种变化也必然会引起各海拔带上的生态系统的变化。放牧强度的降低、生产性用火的停止将导致原来通过人工火烧而降低并通过进一步的火烧和放牧活动来维持的林线及其以上地带的灌木盖度和高度的增加，从而为林线森林群落的扩张创造条件。 青藏高原东部高山峡谷地区是我国重要的山地生态系统，在我国的生物多样性保护、生态环境建设、社会经济可持续发展战略中具有举足轻重的作用。正确认识人类特别是当地传统的生计系统与生态环境系统的互动关系是实现上述战略目标的前提。决策者必须以综合、系统的的视角协调促进社会经济可持续发展、保护生物及文化多样性和维持人、牲口和生态系统之间的平衡的多重目标。 Agropastoral transhumance, which makes a complementary exploitation of the natural resources at different altitudinal belts through a combination of migratory animal husbandry and crop cultivation, has a long history in Hindu-Kush Himalaya, Tibet Plateau, Hengduan Ranges, eastern and southern Africa and the Andes region of south America.For millennia, this traditional livelihood strategy has been one of the main forms of interaction between human societies inhabiting in these regions and their natural ecocystems. A close co-evolutionary relationship has been developed between this indigenous resources management systems and the mountain vegetation systems on the one hand and a unique set of cultural values and social features on the other. Understanding this relationship has been one of the core scientific issues in mountain ecology and anthropology. In recent years, the importance of the multiple functions of the mountain ecosystems and their dynamic changes in the sustainable socio-economic development of the mountain regions has gained increasing attention. This paper, which is based on a detailed study on the agropastoral practices of the 12 natural villages in Deqin County of Yunnan, and the mountainnn vegetation patterns in Deqin of Yunnan and Rangtang County of Sichuan, intends to reveal the major characteristics, system composition and the inter-relations of the subsystems of the agropastoral transhumance in Eastern Tibetan Plateau as well as the trends of changes of the system within the context of global changes, economic globalization and modernity process of China and analyze the relations between agropastoral transhumance and alpine ecosystem, ao as to understand the interactions between human activities and natural ecosystems of the mountains and provide theoretical basis for the national strategies in eocioeconomic development, environmental reconstruction and biodiversity conservation in the mountain regions. Results of the survey indicate that agropastoral transhumance in the investigated area is a traditional economic form that is highly adapted to the eastern Tibet Plateau where the topography features high peaks and deep gorges and where the highly variable environmental parameters and scanty natural resources exhibit a distinct vertical spectrum of distribution and great temporal and spatial heterogeneity. The main objective of pastoral management is still aimed at the production of basic goods and services of local people and thus the type and size of animals raised for each household mainly depend on local needs and are limited by the availability of natural resources. The scale of production is relatively low. Pastoral resources at different altidudinal belts are complementarily used at different seasons of a year and thus form the resources basis for agropastoral production of the study area. Migration distances and patterns vary with the location of the permanent settlements, the elevational distribution range of the resources of the villages concerned. Natural pastures (rangelands) are the main fodder resources and sumplement feedings only account for less than 5% of the total fodder consumption. Crop cultivation and pastoral activities support each other to form a complete livelihood system. The ability of the farmig lands (crop cultivation) to provide the pastoral activities with concentrates and sumplements often becomes a main factor limiting the scale of livestock production at household level. Agropastoral transhumance is experiencing drastic changes in recent decades as is reflected in the size and composition of animals, the seasonal migration pattern, the relative importance of pastoralism in the household economy and the interplays of agricultural and pastoral elements of the system. In general, there is a decline in animal population and mobility, a shift in animal composition to meet new needs arising from changed macro-economic situation, a decrease in the relative importance in the household economy and an increasing decoupling of agro&pastoral relations. The fundamental divers of these changes can be traced to environmental, social, economic, technological and cultural changes from local to global levels and such changes have further caused local changes in livestock management objectives, land use and distribution of labor forces. Changes in local livelihood systems could have profound political, socioeconomic, cultural and ecological conseuquences. Agropastoral transhumance, as an age-old traditional livelihood strategy, is facing multifacet challenges, such as winter fodder shortage, rangeland degradation, lack of market competitiveness, decrease in economic importance, lack of appreciation among the young generation and adequate policies from the government. At the same time, economic globalization, market economy, intrdoctution of new technologies, increase of alternative income generating opportunities and the national re-oreitation of policies on mountain ecosystems have all brought about new opportunities for the transformation of the traditional livelihood system and the synchronized development of local society and the environment. Agropastoral transhumance interacts with the ecosystems at the timberline and treeline ecotone mainly through the following aspects: 1)Animal browsing and stamping affect the regeneration process of the forest communities and alters the composition and structure of the forest which in turn affect the succession process and vegetation pattern of the forest communities. Forest edges are the priority locations for summer houses and therefore the timeline and treeline area becomes the major venues of aninal activities; （2）herders create, maintain and improve pastures through burning that remove the forest communities at the timeline and treeline ecotone; 3）immediate grazing on the fire sites can significantly prevent the fire sites from perogressive succession; and 4）herders harvesting of construction timber and firewoods affects the structure and functions of the forest communities at the timberline and treeline zone. Timberline position in the survey region shows geographical variations. It is around 4200-4300m in Meilixueshan, Baimaxueshan and Jiawuxueshan in Northwest of Yunnan and rises to 4300-4400m in Yajiang County and Litang County of Sichuan. In Rangtang of Sichuan, it is between 4100-4200m, though reaching 4300m in localized sites. In the southern and eastern slopes of Gongga Mountain, the timberline is only between 3600m and 3700m and in Songpan County at the upper reach of the Minjiang River the timberline is around 3700-3800m.Treeline pattern follows similar trend. In many places, agropastoral transhumance and related human activities have lowered the timberline and treeline and narrowed or removed the treeline ecotone. In the area of survey, generally speaking, timberlines and treelines are lower on the southern slopes than on the northern slopes, with a difference between 20 and 200m. This is mainly because that the use of fires to crerate pastures has removed the forest vegetation at the previous timberline and above. In fact, in many places, well-preserved forests on the south slopes have even high timberline position that the corresponding northern slopes. At subalpine zone, grazing activities could have prohibited the natural regeneration of many forest fire sites and maintained the forest position at the present level. Grazing has a significant impact on the regernation process of forest communities at the timberline zone. Natural timberline and treeline ecotone has much higher density of treeline species individuals especially the emergents and seedlings than the timberlines that are maintained by human activities. In natural timberline and treelien ecotone without grazing interference, the density of the I Class seedlings (less than 10cm in height) ranges 725-2917 /hm2; while that in the treatment plots (with grazing disturbance) is only 0-228//hm2；II Class seedlings (10-50cm）exhibit similar density trends, reaching 550-5208//hm2 in natural timberline without grazing but only 14-321//hm2 in the plots with grazing treatment. In the man-created timberlines, there is no I Class seedling at all in plots with normal grazing activities. In relative terms, in plots without grazing activities, the propotion of I Class and II Class seedlings is much higher than that in plots with grazing. Grazing activities have significantly reduced the number of seedlings in the timberline ane treeline ecotone, and thus affect the natural regeneration process of the forests. Shrubs at the timberline and treeline ecotone can effectively protect the seedlings from severe climate and animal tramping, thus increasing the survival rate of the seedlings. Grazing following fires can completely inhibit forest regeneration process at timberline. Changes in agropastoral transhumance will have great impact on the timberline and treeline pattern of the studied area. The decrease in grazing intensity on alpine pastrues and the cessation of the use of fires will result an increase in the cover and height of shrubs above the present human-maintained treeline, which will create further condition for the expansion of timberline forest communities. Eastern Tibet Plateau harbors some most important mountain ecosystems of China that are of vital importance to the country’s strategy in biodiversity conservation, environmental construction and sustainable sociaoeconomic development. A proper knowledge of the interactions between traditional livelihood systems and the ecosystems in the region is a precondition to the realization of the above strategic goals. Therefore, the decision-makers must have a holistic and systemic perspective so as to integrate the multiple objectives of promoting sustainable socioeconomic development, conserving biological and cultural diversity and maintaining the balances among people, animal population and the ecosystems.

Coupling of seagrass (Cymodocea nodosa) patch dynamics to subaqueous dune migratio

The coupling between patch dynamics - described by the patch growth (horizontal and vertical), patch mortality, and life-history of Cymodocea nodosa (Ucria) Aschers., and the disturbance caused by the migration of subaqueous dunes over the plants was examined in a shallow NW Mediterranean bay (Alfacs Bay) where this species maintains a patchy cover. C. nodosa shoots survived substantial burial rates (up to 2.4 mm/day) by growing vertically at rates proportional to, albeit four-fold slower than, burial rates. Patch death was caused by erosion as large subaqueous dunes migrated pass the plant patch. Patch growth was fastest over the progressing slope of the dunes ( similar to 2.5 m year super(-1)) and flowering was also stimulated by sand accretion. The time interval between the passage of consecutive dunes, which sets the time window available for patch development, ranged between 2 and 6 years. This time interval allowed C. nodosa to recolonize bare substrata, with patch formation occurring about half a year after the disturbance, and also allowed established shoots to complete their life-cycle and produce seeds and thus enable subsequent recolonization. The time windows available for patch development also set an upper limit to patch size of about 26 m. Significant cross correlations between dune topography and patch dynamics and plant flowering frequency provide evidence that the spatial heterogeneity in the vegetation is closely associated with the disturbance imposed by the migration of sand dunes. The migration of subaqueous dunes maintains C. nodosa in a continuous state of colonization involving spatially asynchronous patch growth and subsequent mortality, which is ultimately responsible for the characteristic patchy landscape of this Bay. 

Fine-scale vertical distribution of bacteria in the East Pacific deep-sea sediments determined via 16S rRNA gene T-RFLP and clone library analyses

Although the deep-sea sediments harbor diverse and novel bacteria with important ecological and environmental functions, a comprehensive view of their community characteristics is still lacking, considering the vast area and volume of the deep-sea sedimentary environments. Sediment bacteria vertical distribution and community structure were studied of the E272 site in the East Pacific Ocean with the molecular methods of 16S rRNA gene T-RFLP (terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism) and clone library analyses. Layered distribution of the bacterial assemblages was detected by both methods, indicating that the shallow sediments (40 cm in depth) harbored a diverse and distinct bacterial composition with fine-scale spatial heterogeneity. Substantial bacterial diversity was detected and nine major bacterial lineages were obtained, including Acidobacteria, Actinobacteria, Bacteroidetes, Chloroflexi, Nitrospirae, Planctomycetes, Proteobacteria, and the candidate divisions OP8 and TM6. Three subdivisions of the Proteobacteria presented in our libraries, including the alpha-, gamma- and delta-Proteobacteria. Most of our sequences have low similarity with known bacterial 16S rRNA genes, indicating that these sequences may represent as-yet-uncultivated novel bacteria. Most of our sequences were related to the GenBank nearest neighboring sequences retrieved from marine sediments, especially from deep-sea methane seep, gas hydrate or mud volcano environments. Several sequences were related to the sequences recovered from the deep-sea hydrothermal vent or basalt glasses-bearing sediments, indicating that our deep-sea sampling site might be influenced to certain degree by the nearby hydrothermal field of the East Pacific Rise at 13A degrees N.

Effect of long-term grazing on soil organic carbon content in semiarid steppes in Inner Mongolia

To clarify the response of soil organic carbon (SOC) content to season-long grazing in the semiarid typical steppes of Inner Mongolia, we examined the aboveground biomass and SOC in both grazing (G-site) and no grazing (NG-site) sites in two typical steppes dominated by Leymus chinensis and Stipa grandis, as well as one seriously degraded L. chinensis grassland dominated by Artemisia frigida. The NG-sites had been fenced for 20 years in L. chinensis and S. grandis grasslands and for 10 years in A. frigida grassland. Above-ground biomass at G-sites was 21-35% of that at NG-sites in L. chinensis and S. grandis grasslands. The SOC, however, showed no significant difference between G-site and NG-site in both grasslands. In the NG-sites, aboveground biomass was significantly lower in A. frigida grassland than in the other two grasslands. The SOC in A. frigida grassland was about 70% of that in L. chinensis grassland. In A. frigida grassland, aboveground biomass in the G-site was 68-82% of that in the NG-site, whereas SOC was significantly lower in the G-site than in the NG-site. Grazing elevated the surface soil pH in L. chinensis and A. frigida communities. A spatial heterogeneity in SOC and pH in the topsoil was not detected the G-site within the minimal sampling distance of 10 m. The results suggested that compensatory growth may account for the relative stability of SOC in G-sites in typical steppes. The SOC was sensitive to heavy grazing and difficult to recover after a significant decline caused by overgrazing in semiarid steppes.

Temporal and Spatial Distributions of Rotifers in Xiangxi Bay of the Three Gorges Reservoir, China

From July 2003 to June 2005, investigations of rotifer temporal and spatial distributions were carried out in a bay of the Three Gorges Reservoir, Xiangxi Bay, which is the downstream segment of the Xiangxi River and the nearest bay to the Three Gorges Reservoir dam in Hubei Province, China. Thirteen sampling sites were selected. The results revealed a high species diversity, with 76 species, and 14 dominant species; i.e., Polyarthra vulgaris, Keratella cochlearis, Keratella valga, Synchaeta tremula, Synchaeta stylata, Trichocerca lophoessa, Trichocerca pusilla, Brachionus angularis, Brachionus calyciflorus, Brachionus forficula forficula, Ascomorpha ovalis, Conochilus unicornis, Ploesoma truncatum and Anuraeopsis fissa. After the first year of the reservoir impoundment, the rotifer community was dominated by ten species; one year later it was dominated by eight species. The community in 2003/2004 was dissimilar to that in 2004/2005, which resulted from the succession of the dominant species. The rotifer community exhibited a patchy distribution, with significant heterogeneity observed along the longitudinal axis. All rotifer communities could be divided into three groups, corresponding to the riverine, the transition and the lacustrine zone, respectively.

Spatial analysis for spring bloom and nutrient limitation in Xiangxi bay of three Gorges Reservoir

The spatial and temporal dynamics of physical variables, inorganic nutrients and phytoplankton chlorophyll a were investigated in Xiangxi Bay from 23 Feb. to 28 Apr. every six days, including one daily sampling site and one bidaily sampling site. The concentrations of nutrient variables showed ranges of 0.02-3.20 mg/L for dissolved silicate (Si); 0.06-2.40 mg/L for DIN (NH4N + NO2N + NO3N); 0.03-0.56 mg/L for PO4P and 0.22-193.37 mu g/L for chlorophyll a, respectively. The concentration of chlorophyll a and inorganic nutrients were interpolated using GIS techniques. The results indicated that the spring bloom was occurred twice in space during the whole monitoring period (The first one: 26 Feb.-23 Mar.; the second one: 23 Mar.-28 Apr.). The concentration of DIN was always high in the mouth of Xiangxi Bay, and PO4P was high in the upstream of Xiangxi Bay during the whole bloom period. Si seems no obvious difference in space in the beginning of the spring bloom, but showed high heterogeneity in space and time with the development of spring bloom. By comparing the interpolated maps of chlorophyll a and inorganic variables, obvious consumptions of Si and DIN were found when the bloom status was serious. However, no obvious depletion of PO4P was found. Spatial regression analysis could explained most variation of Chl-a except at the begin of the first and second bloom. The result indicated that Si was the factor limiting Chl-a in space before achieved the max area of hypertrophic in the first and second bloom period. When Si was obviously exhausted, DIN became the factor limiting the Chl-a in space. Daily and bidaily monitoring of Site A and B, representing for high DIN: PO4P ratio and low DIN:PO4P ratio, indicated that the concentration of Si was decreased with times at both site A and B, and the dramatically drop of DIN was found in the end monitoring at site B. Multiple stepwise regression analysis indicated that Si was the most important factor affect the development of spring bloom both at site A and B in time series.

Effect of spatial variation on areal evapotranspiration simulation in Haibei, Tibet plateau, China

Quantification of areal evapotranspiration from remote sensing data requires the determination of surface energy balance components with support of field observations. Much attention should be given to spatial resolution sensitivity to the physics of surface heterogeneity. Using the Priestley-Taylor model, we generated evapotranspiration maps at several spatial resolutions for a heterogeneous area at Haibei, and validated the evapotranspiration maps with the flux tower data. The results suggested that the mean values for all evapotranspiration maps were quite similar but their standard deviations decreased with the coarsening of spatial resolution. When the resolution transcended about 480 m, the standard deviations drastically decreased, indicating a loss of spatial structure information of the original resolution evapotranspiration map. The absolute values of relative errors of the points for evapotranspiration maps showed a fluctuant trend as spatial resolution of input parameter data layers coarsening, and the absolute value of relative errors reached minimum when pixel size of map matched up to measuring scale of eddy covariance system. Finally, based on the analyses of the semi-variogram of the original resolution evapotranspiration map and the shapes of spatial autocorrelation indices of Moran and Geary for evapotranspiration maps at different resolutions, an appropriate resolution was suggested for the areal evapotranspiration simulation in this study area.

Effects of Microstructural Heterogeneity on the Spallation Behavior of Materials

It is of utmost importance to understand the spallation behaviour of heterogeneous materials. In this paper, a driven nonlinear threshold model with stress fluctuation is presented to study the effects of microstructural heterogeneity on continuum damage evolution. The spallation behavior of heterogeneity material is analyzed with this model. The heterogeniety of mesoscopic units is characterized in terms of Weibull modulus m of strength distibution and stress fluctuation parameter k. At high stress, the maximum damage increases with m; while at low stress, the maximum damage decreases. In addition, for low stress, severe stress fluctuation causes higher damage; while for high stress, causes lower damage.

Weak Zone Related Seismic Cycles in Progressive Failure Leading to Collapse in Brittle Crust

Until quite recently our understanding of the basic mechanical process responsible for earthquakes and faulting was not well known. It can be argued that this was partly a consequence of the complex nature of fracture in crust and in part because evidence of brittle phenomena in the natural laboratory of the earth is often obliterated or obscured by other geological processes. While it is well understood that the spatial and temporal complexity of earthquakes and the fault structures emerge from geometrical and material built-in heterogeneities, one important open question is how the shearing becomes localized into a band of intense fractures. Here the authors address these questions through a numerical approach of a tectonic plate by considering rockmass heterogeneity both in microscopic scale and in mesoscopic scale. Numerical simulations of the progressive failure leading to collapse under long-range slow driving forces in the far-field show earthquake-like rupture behavior. $En Echelon$ crack-arrays are reproduced in the numerical simulation. It is demonstrated that the underlying fracturing induced acoustic emissions (or seismic events) display self-organized criticality------from disorder to order. The seismic cycles and the geometric structures of the fracture faces, which are found greatly depending on the material heterogeneity (especially on the macroscopic scale), agree with that observed experimentally in real brittle materials. It is concluded that in order to predict a main shock, one must have extremely detailed knowledge on very minor features of the earth's crust far from the place where the earthquake originated. If correct, the model proposed here seemingly provides an explanation as to why earthquakes to date are not predicted so successfully. The reason is not that the authors do not understand earthquake mechanisms very well but that they still know little about our earth's crust.

Critical Sensitivity and Trans-Scale Fluctuations in Catastrophic Rupture

Rupture in the heterogeneous crust appears to be a catastrophe transition. Catastrophic rupture sensitively depends on the details of heterogeneity and stress transfer on multiple scales. These are difficult to identify and deal with. As a result, the threshold of earthquake-like rupture presents uncertainty. This may be the root of the difficulty of earthquake prediction. Based on a coupled pattern mapping model, we represent critical sensitivity and trans-scale fluctuations associated with catastrophic rupture. Critical sensitivity means that a system may become significantly sensitive near catastrophe transition. Trans-scale fluctuations mean that the level of stress fluctuations increases strongly and the spatial scale of stress and damage fluctuations evolves from the mesoscopic heterogeneity scale to the macroscopic scale as the catastrophe regime is approached. The underlying mechanism behind critical sensitivity and trans-scale fluctuations is the coupling effect between heterogeneity and dynamical nonlinearity. Such features may provide clues for prediction of catastrophic rupture, like material failure and great earthquakes. Critical sensitivity may be the physical mechanism underlying a promising earthquake forecasting method, the load-unload response ratio (LURR).

Thermal fatigue on pistons induced by shaped high power laser. Part II: Design of spatial intensity distribution via numerical simulation

In the laser induced thermal fatigue simulation test on pistons, the high power laser was transformed from the incident Gaussian beam into a concentric multi-circular pattern with specific intensity ratio. The spatial intensity distribution of the shaped beam, which determines the temperature field in the piston, must be designed before a diffractive optical element (DOE) can be manufactured. In this paper, a reverse method based on finite element model (FEM) was proposed to design the intensity distribution in order to simulate the thermal loadings on pistons. Temperature fields were obtained by solving a transient three-dimensional heat conduction equation with convective boundary conditions at the surfaces of the piston workpiece. The numerical model then was validated by approaching the computational results to the experimental data. During the process, some important parameters including laser absorptivity, convective heat transfer coefficient, thermal conductivity and Biot number were also validated. Then, optimization procedure was processed to find favorable spatial intensity distribution for the shaped beam, with the aid of the validated FEM. The analysis shows that the reverse method incorporated with numerical simulation can reduce design cycle and design expense efficiently. This method can serve as a kind of virtual experimental vehicle as well, which makes the thermal fatigue simulation test more controllable and predictable. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The vector fields admitting one-parameter spatial symmetry group and their reduction

For a n-dimensional vector fields preserving some n-form, the following conclusion is reached by the method of Lie group. That is, if it admits an one-parameter, n-form preserving symmetry group, a transformation independent of the vector field is constructed explicitly, which can reduce not only dimesion of the vector field by one, but also make the reduced vector field preserve the corresponding ( n - 1)-form. In partic ular, while n = 3, an important result can be directly got which is given by Me,ie and Wiggins in 1994.

Coupling effects of heterogeneity and stress fluctuation on rupture

The coupling of mesoscopic strength distribution and stress fluctuation on damage evolution and rupture are examined. The numerical simulations show that there is only weak stress fluctuation at the initial damage stage when the mean field approximation is in effect. As the damage fraction becomes larger than the threshold value, the fluctuation is amplified significantly, and damage localization appears. The coupling between stress fluctuation, disordered heterogeneity and the damage localization may play an essential role in catastrophic rupture. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Numerical analysis of spatial evolution of the small signal gain in a chemical oxygen-iodine laser operating without primary buffer gas

A chemical oxygen iodine laser (COIL) that operates without primary buffer gas has become a new way of facilitating the compact integration of laser systems. To clarify the properties of spatial gain distribution, three-dimensional (3-D) computational fluid dynamics (CFD) technology was used to study the mixing and reactive flow in a COIL nozzle with an interleaving jet configuration in the supersonic section. The results show that the molecular iodine fraction in the secondary flow has a notable effect on the spatial distribution of the small signal gain. The rich iodine condition produces some negative gain regions along the jet trajectory, while the lean iodine condition slows down the development of the gain in the streamwise direction. It is also found that the new configuration of an interleaving jet helps form a reasonable gain field under appropriate operation conditions. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.