分布式水文模型的误差分析

分布式水文模型以其具有明确物理意义的参数结构和对空间分异性的全面反映,能够准确详尽地描述和模拟流域内真实的降水径流过程而被广泛需求和关注。在模拟土地利用、土地覆盖、水土流失等各种变化过程的水文响应,面源污染、陆面过程、气候变化影响评价等诸多领域都有广泛的应用。模型的预报精度和误差至关重要,决定了模型的应用和推广。在分析分布式水文模型建立和验证过程的基础上,提出了模型的4类误差来源:被排除在外的因素引起的误差,实测历史记录资料的随机或系统误差,参数误差和模型结构误差,讨论了各类误差的分析与计算方法,为模型的发展和成长提供了依据。

With the clear physical meaning of parameter structure and the full reflection of spatial heterogeneity,a distributed hydrological model can describe and simulate the real process of runoff induced by rainfall in a basin,accurately and sufficiently.The model is widely needed and concerned recently.Non-point source pollution,land surface process,and climate change impact assessment have a wide range of applications in the simulation of land use,land cover,soil erosion,and other changes in hydrological respon...