Constraints on the carbon cycle and climate during the early evolution of animals

One of the greatest challenges in science lies in disentangling causality in complex, coupled systems. This is illustrated no better than in the dynamic interplay between the Earth and life. The early evolution and diversification of animals occurred within a backdrop of global change, yet reconstructing the potential role of the environment in this evolutionary transition is challenging. In the 200 million years from the end-Cryogenian to the Ordovician, enigmatic Ediacaran fauna explored body plans, animals diversified and began to biomineralize, forever changing the ocean's chemical cycles, and the biological community in shallow marine ecosystems transitioned from a microbial one to an animal one.

In the following dissertation, a multi-faceted approach combining macro- and micro-scale analyses is presented that draws on the sedimentology, geochemistry and paleontology of the rocks that span this transition to better constrain the potential environmental changes during this interval.

In Chapter 1, the potential of clumped isotope thermometry in deep time is explored by assessing the importance of burial and diagenesis on the thermometer. Eocene- to Precambrian-aged carbonates from the Sultanate of Oman were analyzed from current burial depths of 350-5850 meters. Two end-member styles of diagenesis independent of burial depth were observed.

Chapters 2, 3 and 4 explore the fallibility of the Ediacaran carbon isotope record and aspects of the sedimentology and geochemistry of the rocks preserving the largest negative carbon isotope excursion on record---the Shuram Excursion. Chapter 2 documents the importance of temperature, fluid composition and mineralogy on the delta 18-O min record and interrogates the bulk trace metal signal. Chapter 3 explores the spatial variability in delta 13-C recorded in the transgressive Johnnie Oolite and finds a north-to-south trend recording the onset of the excursion. Chapter 4 investigates the nature of seafloor precipitation during this excursion and more broadly. We document the potential importance of microbial respiratory reactions on the carbonate chemistry of the sediment-water interface through time.

Chapter 5 investigates the latest Precambrian sedimentary record in carbonates from the Sultanate of Oman, including how delta 13-C and delta 34-S CAS vary across depositional and depth gradients. A new model for the correlation of the Buah and Ara formations across Oman is presented. Isotopic results indicate delta 13-C varies with relative eustatic change and delta 34-S CAS may vary in absolute magnitude across Oman.

Chapter 6 investigates the secular rise in delta 18-Omin in the early Paleozoic by using clumped isotope geochemistry on calcitic and phosphatic fossils from the Cambrian and Ordovician. Results do not indicate extreme delta 18-O seawater depletion and instead suggest warmer equatorial temperatures across the early Paleozoic.

Spinal cord injury therapy through active learning

Therapy employing epidural electrostimulation holds great potential for improving therapy for patients with spinal cord injury (SCI) (Harkema et al., 2011). Further promising results from combined therapies using electrostimulation have also been recently obtained (e.g., van den Brand et al., 2012). The devices being developed to deliver the stimulation are highly flexible, capable of delivering any individual stimulus among a combinatorially large set of stimuli (Gad et al., 2013). While this extreme flexibility is very useful for ensuring that the device can deliver an appropriate stimulus, the challenge of choosing good stimuli is quite substantial, even for expert human experimenters. To develop a fully implantable, autonomous device which can provide useful therapy, it is necessary to design an algorithmic method for choosing the stimulus parameters. Such a method can be used in a clinical setting, by caregivers who are not experts in the neurostimulator's use, and to allow the system to adapt autonomously between visits to the clinic. To create such an algorithm, this dissertation pursues the general class of active learning algorithms that includes Gaussian Process Upper Confidence Bound (GP-UCB, Srinivas et al., 2010), developing the Gaussian Process Batch Upper Confidence Bound (GP-BUCB, Desautels et al., 2012) and Gaussian Process Adaptive Upper Confidence Bound (GP-AUCB) algorithms. This dissertation develops new theoretical bounds for the performance of these and similar algorithms, empirically assesses these algorithms against a number of competitors in simulation, and applies a variant of the GP-BUCB algorithm in closed-loop to control SCI therapy via epidural electrostimulation in four live rats. The algorithm was tasked with maximizing the amplitude of evoked potentials in the rats' left tibialis anterior muscle. These experiments show that the algorithm is capable of directing these experiments sensibly, finding effective stimuli in all four animals. Further, in direct competition with an expert human experimenter, the algorithm produced superior performance in terms of average reward and comparable or superior performance in terms of maximum reward. These results indicate that variants of GP-BUCB may be suitable for autonomously directing SCI therapy.

Storm track response to perturbations in climate

This thesis advances our understanding of midlatitude storm tracks and how they respond to perturbations in the climate system. The midlatitude storm tracks are regions of maximal turbulent kinetic energy in the atmosphere. Through them, the bulk of the atmospheric transport of energy, water vapor, and angular momentum occurs in midlatitudes. Therefore, they are important regulators of climate, controlling basic features such as the distribution of surface temperatures, precipitation, and winds in midlatitudes. Storm tracks are robustly projected to shift poleward in global-warming simulations with current climate models. Yet the reasons for this shift have remained unclear. Here we show that this shift occurs even in extremely idealized (but still three-dimensional) simulations of dry atmospheres. We use these simulations to develop an understanding of the processes responsible for the shift and develop a conceptual model that accounts for it.

We demonstrate that changes in the convective static stability in the deep tropics alone can drive remote shifts in the midlatitude storm tracks. Through simulations with a dry idealized general circulation model (GCM), midlatitude storm tracks are shown to be located where the mean available potential energy (MAPE, a measure of the potential energy available to be converted into kinetic energy) is maximal. As the climate varies, even if only driven by tropical static stability changes, the MAPE maximum shifts primarily because of shifts of the maximum of near-surface meridional temperature gradients. The temperature gradients shift in response to changes in the width of the tropical Hadley circulation, whose width is affected by the tropical static stability. Storm tracks generally shift in tandem with shifts of the subtropical terminus of the Hadley circulation.

We develop a one-dimensional diffusive energy-balance model that links changes in the Hadley circulation to midlatitude temperature gradients and so to the storm tracks. It is the first conceptual model to incorporate a dynamical coupling between the tropical Hadley circulation and midlatitude turbulent energy transport. Numerical and analytical solutions of the model elucidate the circumstances of when and how the storm tracks shift in tandem with the terminus of the Hadley circulation. They illustrate how an increase of only the convective static stability in the deep tropics can lead to an expansion of the Hadley circulation and a poleward shift of storm tracks.

The simulations with the idealized GCM and the conceptual energy-balance model demonstrate a clear link between Hadley circulation dynamics and midlatitude storm track position. With the help of the hierarchy of models presented in this thesis, we obtain a closed theory of storm track shifts in dry climates. The relevance of this theory for more realistic moist climates is discussed.

Simulations and mechanisms of subtropical low-cloud response to climate change

This thesis focuses on improving the simulation skills and the theoretical understanding of the subtropical low cloud response to climate change.

First, an energetically consistent forcing framework is designed and implemented for the large eddy simulation (LES) of the low-cloud response to climate change. The three representative current-day subtropical low cloud regimes of cumulus (Cu), cumulus-over-stratocumulus, and stratocumulus (Sc) are all well simulated with this framework, and results are comparable to the conventional fixed-SST approach. However, the cumulus response to climate warming subject to energetic constraints differs significantly from the conventional approach with fixed SST. Under the energetic constraint, the subtropics warm less than the tropics, since longwave (LW) cooling is more efficient with the drier subtropical free troposphere. The surface latent heat flux (LHF) also increases only weakly subject to the surface energetic constraint. Both factors contribute to an increased estimated inversion strength (EIS), and decreased inversion height. The decreased Cu-depth contributes to a decrease of liquid water path (LWP) and weak positive cloud feedback. The conventional fixed-SST approach instead simulates a strong increase in LHF and deepening of the Cu layer, leading to a weakly negative cloud feedback. This illustrates the importance of energetic constraints to the simulation and understanding of the sign and magnitude of low-cloud feedback.

Second, an extended eddy-diffusivity mass-flux (EDMF) closure for the unified representation of sub-grid scale (SGS) turbulence and convection processes in general circulation models (GCM) is presented. The inclusion of prognostic terms and the elimination of the infinitesimal updraft fraction assumption makes it more flexible for implementation in models across different scales. This framework can be consistently extended to formulate multiple updrafts and downdrafts, as well as variances and covariances. It has been verified with LES in different boundary layer regimes in the current climate, and further development and implementation of this closure may help to improve our simulation skills and understanding of low-cloud feedback through GCMs.

Stationary Eddies and Zonal Variations of the Global Hydrological Cycle in a Changing Climate

This thesis advances our physical understanding of the sensitivity of the hydrological cycle to global warming. Specifically, it focuses on changes in the longitudinal (zonal) variation of precipitation minus evaporation (P - E), which is predominantly controlled by planetary-scale stationary eddies. By studying idealized general circulation model (GCM) experiments with zonally varying boundary conditions, this thesis examines the mechanisms controlling the strength of stationary-eddy circulations and their role in the hydrological cycle. The overarching goal of this research is to understand the cause of changes in regional P - E with global warming. An understanding of such changes can be useful for impact studies focusing on water availability, ecosystem management, and flood risk.

Based on a moisture-budget analysis of ERA-Interim data, we establish an approximation for zonally anomalous P - E in terms of surface moisture content and stationary-eddy vertical motion in the lower troposphere. Part of the success of this approximation comes from our finding that transient-eddy moisture fluxes partially cancel the effect of stationary-eddy moisture advection, allowing divergent circulations to dominate the moisture budget. The lower-tropospheric vertical motion is related to horizontal motion in stationary eddies by Sverdrup and Ekman balance. These moisture- and vorticity-budget balances also hold in idealized and comprehensive GCM simulations across a range of climates.

By examining climate changes in the idealized and comprehensive GCM simulations, we are able to show the utility of the vertical motion P - E approximation for splitting changes in zonally anomalous P - E into thermodynamic and dynamic components. Shifts in divergent stationary-eddy circulations dominate changes in zonally anomalous P - E. This limits the local utility of the "wet gets wetter, dry gets drier” idea, where existing P - E patterns are amplified with warming by the increase in atmospheric moisture content, with atmospheric circulations held fixed. The increase in atmospheric moisture content manifests instead in an increase in the amplitude of the zonally anomalous hydrological cycle as measured by the zonal variance of P - E. However, dynamic changes, particularly the slowdown of divergent stationary-eddy circulations, limit the strengthening of the zonally anomalous hydrological cycle. In certain idealized cases, dynamic changes are even strong enough to reverse the tendency towards "wet gets wetter, dry gets drier” with warming.

Motivated by the importance of stationary-eddy vertical velocities in the moisture budget analysis, we examine controls on the amplitude of stationary eddies across a wide range of climates in an idealized GCM with simple topographic and ocean-heating zonal asymmetries. An analysis of the thermodynamic equation in the vicinity of topographic forcing reveals the importance of on-slope surface winds, the midlatitude isentropic slope, and latent heating in setting the amplitude of stationary waves. The response of stationary eddies to climate change is determined primarily by the strength of zonal surface winds hitting the mountain. The sensitivity of stationary-eddies to this surface forcing increases with climate change as the slope of midlatitude isentropes decreases. However, latent heating also plays an important role in damping the stationary-eddy response, and this damping becomes stronger with warming as the atmospheric moisture content increases. We find that the response of tropical overturning circulations forced by ocean heat-flux convergence is described by changes in the vertical structure of moist static energy and deep convection. This is used to derive simple scalings for the Walker circulation strength that capture the monotonic decrease with warming found in our idealized simulations.

Through the work of this thesis, the advances made in understanding the amplitude of stationary-waves in a changing climate can be directly applied to better understand and predict changes in the zonally anomalous hydrological cycle.