Real-Time Bayesian Analysis of Ground Motion Envelopes for Earthquake Early Warning

Current earthquake early warning systems usually make magnitude and location predictions and send out a warning to the users based on those predictions. We describe an algorithm that assesses the validity of the predictions in real-time. Our algorithm monitors the envelopes of horizontal and vertical acceleration, velocity, and displacement. We compare the observed envelopes with the ones predicted by Cua & Heaton's envelope ground motion prediction equations (Cua 2005). We define a "test function" as the logarithm of the ratio between observed and predicted envelopes at every second in real-time. Once the envelopes deviate beyond an acceptable threshold, we declare a misfit. Kurtosis and skewness of a time evolving test function are used to rapidly identify a misfit. Real-time kurtosis and skewness calculations are also inputs to both probabilistic (Logistic Regression and Bayesian Logistic Regression) and nonprobabilistic (Least Squares and Linear Discriminant Analysis) models that ultimately decide if there is an unacceptable level of misfit. This algorithm is designed to work at a wide range of amplitude scales. When tested with synthetic and actual seismic signals from past events, it works for both small and large events.

I. Quantum mechanics of one-dimensional two-particle models. II. A quantum mechanical treatment of inelastic collisions

Part I

Solutions of Schrödinger’s equation for system of two particles bound in various stationary one-dimensional potential wells and repelling each other with a Coulomb force are obtained by the method of finite differences. The general properties of such systems are worked out in detail for the case of two electrons in an infinite square well. For small well widths (1-10 a.u.) the energy levels lie above those of the noninteresting particle model by as much as a factor of 4, although excitation energies are only half again as great. The analytical form of the solutions is obtained and it is shown that every eigenstate is doubly degenerate due to the “pathological” nature of the one-dimensional Coulomb potential. This degeneracy is verified numerically by the finite-difference method. The properties of the square-well system are compared with those of the free-electron and hard-sphere models; perturbation and variational treatments are also carried out using the hard-sphere Hamiltonian as a zeroth-order approximation. The lowest several finite-difference eigenvalues converge from below with decreasing mesh size to energies below those of the “best” linear variational function consisting of hard-sphere eigenfunctions. The finite-difference solutions in general yield expectation values and matrix elements as accurate as those obtained using the “best” variational function.

The system of two electrons in a parabolic well is also treated by finite differences. In this system it is possible to separate the center-of-mass motion and hence to effect a considerable numerical simplification. It is shown that the pathological one-dimensional Coulomb potential gives rise to doubly degenerate eigenstates for the parabolic well in exactly the same manner as for the infinite square well.

Part II

A general method of treating inelastic collisions quantum mechanically is developed and applied to several one-dimensional models. The formalism is first developed for nonreactive “vibrational” excitations of a bound system by an incident free particle. It is then extended to treat simple exchange reactions of the form A + BC →AB + C. The method consists essentially of finding a set of linearly independent solutions of the Schrödinger equation such that each solution of the set satisfies a distinct, yet arbitrary boundary condition specified in the asymptotic region. These linearly independent solutions are then combined to form a total scattering wavefunction having the correct asymptotic form. The method of finite differences is used to determine the linearly independent functions.

The theory is applied to the impulsive collision of a free particle with a particle bound in (1) an infinite square well and (2) a parabolic well. Calculated transition probabilities agree well with previously obtained values.

Several models for the exchange reaction involving three identical particles are also treated: (1) infinite-square-well potential surface, in which all three particles interact as hard spheres and each two-particle subsystem (i.e. BC and AB) is bound by an attractive infinite-square-well potential; (2) truncated parabolic potential surface, in which the two-particle subsystems are bound by a harmonic oscillator potential which becomes infinite for interparticle separations greater than a certain value; (3) parabolic (untruncated) surface. Although there are no published values with which to compare our reaction probabilities, several independent checks on internal consistency indicate that the results are reliable.

Projections in a normed linear space and a generalization of the pseudo-inverse

The concept of a "projection function" in a finite-dimensional real or complex normed linear space H (the function P_M which carries every element into the closest element of a given subspace M) is set forth and examined.

If dim M = dim H - 1, then P_M is linear. If P_N is linear for all k-dimensional subspaces N, where 1 ≤ k < dim M, then P_M is linear.

The projective bound Q, defined to be the supremum of the operator norm of P_M for all subspaces, is in the range 1 ≤ Q < 2, and these limits are the best possible. For norms with Q = 1, P_M is always linear, and a characterization of those norms is given.

If H also has an inner product (defined independently of the norm), so that a dual norm can be defined, then when P_M is linear its adjoint P_M^H is the projection on (kernel P_M)^⊥ by the dual norm. The projective bounds of a norm and its dual are equal.

The notion of a pseudo-inverse F⁺ of a linear transformation F is extended to non-Euclidean norms. The distance from F to the set of linear transformations G of lower rank (in the sense of the operator norm ∥F - G∥) is c/∥F⁺∥, where c = 1 if the range of F fills its space, and 1 ≤ c < Q otherwise. The norms on both domain and range spaces have Q = 1 if and only if (F⁺)⁺ = F for every F. This condition is also sufficient to prove that we have (F⁺)^H = (F^H)⁺, where the latter pseudo-inverse is taken using dual norms.

In all results, the real and complex cases are handled in a completely parallel fashion.

Edge function method applied to thin plates resting on Winkler foundation

The Edge Function method formerly developed by Quinlan⁽²⁵⁾ is applied to solve the problem of thin elastic plates resting on spring supported foundations subjected to lateral loads the method can be applied to plates of any convex polygonal shapes, however, since most plates are rectangular in shape, this specific class is investigated in this thesis. The method discussed can also be applied easily to other kinds of foundation models (e.g. springs connected to each other by a membrane) as long as the resulting differential equation is linear. In chapter VII, solution of a specific problem is compared with a known solution from literature. In chapter VIII, further comparisons are given. The problems of concentrated load on an edge and later on a corner of a plate as long as they are far away from other boundaries are also given in the chapter and generalized to other loading intensities and/or plates springs constants for Poisson's ratio equal to 0.2

Studies on the role of histones in the structure and function of chromatin

Studies on the dissociation of histones from chromatin by increasing concentrations of sodium deoxycholate (DOC) have shown that histrone II is removed at lowest concentrations of DOC, while slightly higher concentrations remove histones III and IV. Still higher concentrations remove histone I.

The complete separation of chromatin and ¹⁴C-DOC by sucrose sedimentation indicated that the binding of DOC to chromatin is readily and completely reversible.

The dissociation of histones from chromatin by increasing concentrations of related cholanic acids and some of their conjugated derivatives were studied. The results suggested that the driving force for the interaction between the cholanic acid anion and histones is the lowering of the activity coefficient of the cholanic acid anion which occurs when it is partially removed from solution by interaction with hydrophobic regions of the positively charged histones.

The role of histones in the structure of chromatin has been studied by comparing the effects of selective removal of histones from chromatin by increasing concentrations of DOC with those caused by NaCl (removes histone I at lowest concentrations, while higher concentrations remove histones II, III, and IV). Properties studied included thermal denaturation, sedimentation velocity, flow dichroism, relaxation times of molecules oriented in a flow field, and the irreversible disruption of a 130 S, cross-linked component of sheared chromatin. The data indicated that none of the structural or chemical parameters with which these properties are correlated show a dependence on the presence of one particular histone fraction.

The template activity (ability to prime a 0.2 M KC1 DNA-dependent RNA synthesis system catalyzed by E. coli RNA polymerase) increases from that of native chromatin (approximately 25 per cent of that pure DNA) to that of pure DNA in a fashion which shows a nearly linear relationship to the amount of histone coverage of the template. The precipitability of partially dehistonized chromatin samples in 0.15 M NaCl shows a large dependence on the presence of histone I.

Some generalizations of commutativity for linear transformations on a finite dimensional vector space

Let L be the algebra of all linear transformations on an n-dimensional vector space V over a field F and let A, B, ƐL. Let A_i+1 = A_iB - BA_i, i = 0, 1, 2,…, with A = A_o. Let f_k (A, B; σ) = A_2K+1 - ^σ1^A2K-1 ^{+ σ}2^A2K-3 -… +(-1)^Kσ_KA₁ where σ = (σ₁, σ₂,…, σ_K), σ_i belong to F and K = k(k-1)/2. Taussky and Wielandt [Proc. Amer. Math. Soc., 13(1962), 732-735] showed that f_n(A, B; σ) = 0 if σ_i is the i^th elementary symmetric function of (β₄- β_s)², 1 ≤ r ˂ s ≤ n, i = 1, 2, …, N, with N = n(n-1)/2, where β₄ are the characteristic roots of B. In this thesis we discuss relations involving f_k(X, Y; σ) where X, Y Ɛ L and 1 ≤ k ˂ n. We show: 1. If F is infinite and if for each X Ɛ L there exists σ so that f_k(A, X; σ) = 0 where 1 ≤ k ˂ n, then A is a scalar transformation. 2. If F is algebraically closed, a necessary and sufficient condition that there exists a basis of V with respect to which the matrices of A and B are both in block upper triangular form, where the blocks on the diagonals are either one- or two-dimensional, is that certain products X₁, X₂…X_r belong to the radical of the algebra generated by A and B over F, where X_i has the form f₂(A, P(A,B); σ), for all polynomials P(x, y). We partially generalize this to the case where the blocks have dimensions ≤ k. 3. If A and B generate L, if the characteristic of F does not divide n and if there exists σ so that f_k(A, B; σ) = 0, for some k with 1 ≤ k ˂ n, then the characteristic roots of B belong to the splitting field of g_k(w; σ) = w^2K+1 - σ₁w^2K-1 + σ₂w^2K-3 - …. +(-1)^K σ_Kw over F. We use this result to prove a theorem involving a generalized form of property L [cf. Motzkin and Taussky, Trans. Amer. Math. Soc., 73(1952), 108-114]. 4. Also we give mild generalizations of results of McCoy [Amer. Math. Soc. Bull., 42(1936), 592-600] and Drazin [Proc. London Math. Soc., 1(1951), 222-231].

Spectral density of first order Piecewise linear systems excited by white noise

The Fokker-Planck (FP) equation is used to develop a general method for finding the spectral density for a class of randomly excited first order systems. This class consists of systems satisfying stochastic differential equations of form ẋ + f(x) = m/Ʃ/j = 1 h_j(x)n_j(t) where f and the h_j are piecewise linear functions (not necessarily continuous), and the n_j are stationary Gaussian white noise. For such systems, it is shown how the Laplace-transformed FP equation can be solved for the transformed transition probability density. By manipulation of the FP equation and its adjoint, a formula is derived for the transformed autocorrelation function in terms of the transformed transition density. From this, the spectral density is readily obtained. The method generalizes that of Caughey and Dienes, J. Appl. Phys., 32.11.

This method is applied to 4 subclasses: (1) m = 1, h₁ = const. (forcing function excitation); (2) m = 1, h₁ = f (parametric excitation); (3) m = 2, h₁ = const., h₂ = f, n₁ and n₂ correlated; (4) the same, uncorrelated. Many special cases, especially in subclass (1), are worked through to obtain explicit formulas for the spectral density, most of which have not been obtained before. Some results are graphed.

Dealing with parametrically excited first order systems leads to two complications. There is some controversy concerning the form of the FP equation involved (see Gray and Caughey, J. Math. Phys., 44.3); and the conditions which apply at irregular points, where the second order coefficient of the FP equation vanishes, are not obvious but require use of the mathematical theory of diffusion processes developed by Feller and others. These points are discussed in the first chapter, relevant results from various sources being summarized and applied. Also discussed is the steady-state density (the limit of the transition density as t → ∞).

I. Non-linear effects in a self-consistent calculation of SU_3 symmetry breaking in strong interaction coupling constants. II. Direct-channel reggeization of strong interaction scattering amplitudes

The thesis is divided into two parts. Part I generalizes a self-consistent calculation of residue shifts from SU₃ symmetry, originally performed by Dashen, Dothan, Frautschi, and Sharp, to include the effects of non-linear terms. Residue factorizability is used to transform an overdetermined set of equations into a variational problem, which is designed to take advantage of the redundancy of the mathematical system. The solution of this problem automatically satisfies the requirement of factorizability and comes close to satisfying all the original equations.

Part II investigates some consequences of direct channel Regge poles and treats the problem of relating Reggeized partial wave expansions made in different reaction channels. An analytic method is introduced which can be used to determine the crossed-channel discontinuity for a large class of direct-channel Regge representations, and this method is applied to some specific representations.

It is demonstrated that the multi-sheeted analytic structure of the Regge trajectory function can be used to resolve apparent difficulties arising from infinitely rising Regge trajectories. Also discussed are the implications of large collections of "daughter trajectories."

Two things are of particular interest: first, the threshold behavior in direct and crossed channels; second, the potentialities of Reggeized representations for us in self-consistent calculations. A new representation is introduced which surpasses previous formulations in these two areas, automatically satisfying direct-channel threshold constraints while being capable of reproducing a reasonable crossed channel discontinuity. A scalar model is investigated for low energies, and a relation is obtained between the mass of the lowest bound state and the slope of the Regge trajectory.