Distributed optimization in power networks and general multi-agent systems

The dissertation studies the general area of complex networked systems that consist of interconnected and active heterogeneous components and usually operate in uncertain environments and with incomplete information. Problems associated with those systems are typically large-scale and computationally intractable, yet they are also very well-structured and have features that can be exploited by appropriate modeling and computational methods. The goal of this thesis is to develop foundational theories and tools to exploit those structures that can lead to computationally-efficient and distributed solutions, and apply them to improve systems operations and architecture.

Specifically, the thesis focuses on two concrete areas. The first one is to design distributed rules to manage distributed energy resources in the power network. The power network is undergoing a fundamental transformation. The future smart grid, especially on the distribution system, will be a large-scale network of distributed energy resources (DERs), each introducing random and rapid fluctuations in power supply, demand, voltage and frequency. These DERs provide a tremendous opportunity for sustainability, efficiency, and power reliability. However, there are daunting technical challenges in managing these DERs and optimizing their operation. The focus of this dissertation is to develop scalable, distributed, and real-time control and optimization to achieve system-wide efficiency, reliability, and robustness for the future power grid. In particular, we will present how to explore the power network structure to design efficient and distributed market and algorithms for the energy management. We will also show how to connect the algorithms with physical dynamics and existing control mechanisms for real-time control in power networks.

The second focus is to develop distributed optimization rules for general multi-agent engineering systems. A central goal in multiagent systems is to design local control laws for the individual agents to ensure that the emergent global behavior is desirable with respect to the given system level objective. Ideally, a system designer seeks to satisfy this goal while conditioning each agent’s control on the least amount of information possible. Our work focused on achieving this goal using the framework of game theory. In particular, we derived a systematic methodology for designing local agent objective functions that guarantees (i) an equivalence between the resulting game-theoretic equilibria and the system level design objective and (ii) that the resulting game possesses an inherent structure that can be exploited for distributed learning, e.g., potential games. The control design can then be completed by applying any distributed learning algorithm that guarantees convergence to the game-theoretic equilibrium. One main advantage of this game theoretic approach is that it provides a hierarchical decomposition between the decomposition of the systemic objective (game design) and the specific local decision rules (distributed learning algorithms). This decomposition provides the system designer with tremendous flexibility to meet the design objectives and constraints inherent in a broad class of multiagent systems. Furthermore, in many settings the resulting controllers will be inherently robust to a host of uncertainties including asynchronous clock rates, delays in information, and component failures.

Efficient methods for empirical tests of behavioral economics theories in laboratory and field experiments

In the quest for a descriptive theory of decision-making, the rational actor model in economics imposes rather unrealistic expectations and abilities on human decision makers. The further we move from idealized scenarios, such as perfectly competitive markets, and ambitiously extend the reach of the theory to describe everyday decision making situations, the less sense these assumptions make. Behavioural economics has instead proposed models based on assumptions that are more psychologically realistic, with the aim of gaining more precision and descriptive power. Increased psychological realism, however, comes at the cost of a greater number of parameters and model complexity. Now there are a plethora of models, based on different assumptions, applicable in differing contextual settings, and selecting the right model to use tends to be an ad-hoc process. In this thesis, we develop optimal experimental design methods and evaluate different behavioral theories against evidence from lab and field experiments.

We look at evidence from controlled laboratory experiments. Subjects are presented with choices between monetary gambles or lotteries. Different decision-making theories evaluate the choices differently and would make distinct predictions about the subjects' choices. Theories whose predictions are inconsistent with the actual choices can be systematically eliminated. Behavioural theories can have multiple parameters requiring complex experimental designs with a very large number of possible choice tests. This imposes computational and economic constraints on using classical experimental design methods. We develop a methodology of adaptive tests: Bayesian Rapid Optimal Adaptive Designs (BROAD) that sequentially chooses the "most informative" test at each stage, and based on the response updates its posterior beliefs over the theories, which informs the next most informative test to run. BROAD utilizes the Equivalent Class Edge Cutting (EC²) criteria to select tests. We prove that the EC² criteria is adaptively submodular, which allows us to prove theoretical guarantees against the Bayes-optimal testing sequence even in the presence of noisy responses. In simulated ground-truth experiments, we find that the EC² criteria recovers the true hypotheses with significantly fewer tests than more widely used criteria such as Information Gain and Generalized Binary Search. We show, theoretically as well as experimentally, that surprisingly these popular criteria can perform poorly in the presence of noise, or subject errors. Furthermore, we use the adaptive submodular property of EC² to implement an accelerated greedy version of BROAD which leads to orders of magnitude speedup over other methods.

We use BROAD to perform two experiments. First, we compare the main classes of theories for decision-making under risk, namely: expected value, prospect theory, constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) and moments models. Subjects are given an initial endowment, and sequentially presented choices between two lotteries, with the possibility of losses. The lotteries are selected using BROAD, and 57 subjects from Caltech and UCLA are incentivized by randomly realizing one of the lotteries chosen. Aggregate posterior probabilities over the theories show limited evidence in favour of CRRA and moments' models. Classifying the subjects into types showed that most subjects are described by prospect theory, followed by expected value. Adaptive experimental design raises the possibility that subjects could engage in strategic manipulation, i.e. subjects could mask their true preferences and choose differently in order to obtain more favourable tests in later rounds thereby increasing their payoffs. We pay close attention to this problem; strategic manipulation is ruled out since it is infeasible in practice, and also since we do not find any signatures of it in our data.

In the second experiment, we compare the main theories of time preference: exponential discounting, hyperbolic discounting, "present bias" models: quasi-hyperbolic (α, β) discounting and fixed cost discounting, and generalized-hyperbolic discounting. 40 subjects from UCLA were given choices between 2 options: a smaller but more immediate payoff versus a larger but later payoff. We found very limited evidence for present bias models and hyperbolic discounting, and most subjects were classified as generalized hyperbolic discounting types, followed by exponential discounting.

In these models the passage of time is linear. We instead consider a psychological model where the perception of time is subjective. We prove that when the biological (subjective) time is positively dependent, it gives rise to hyperbolic discounting and temporal choice inconsistency.

We also test the predictions of behavioral theories in the "wild". We pay attention to prospect theory, which emerged as the dominant theory in our lab experiments of risky choice. Loss aversion and reference dependence predicts that consumers will behave in a uniquely distinct way than the standard rational model predicts. Specifically, loss aversion predicts that when an item is being offered at a discount, the demand for it will be greater than that explained by its price elasticity. Even more importantly, when the item is no longer discounted, demand for its close substitute would increase excessively. We tested this prediction using a discrete choice model with loss-averse utility function on data from a large eCommerce retailer. Not only did we identify loss aversion, but we also found that the effect decreased with consumers' experience. We outline the policy implications that consumer loss aversion entails, and strategies for competitive pricing.

In future work, BROAD can be widely applicable for testing different behavioural models, e.g. in social preference and game theory, and in different contextual settings. Additional measurements beyond choice data, including biological measurements such as skin conductance, can be used to more rapidly eliminate hypothesis and speed up model comparison. Discrete choice models also provide a framework for testing behavioural models with field data, and encourage combined lab-field experiments.

Electrical resistance and thermoelectric power of the metastable phases in tellurium-base alloys

By using techniques of rapid quenching from the melt, metastable phases have been obtained in ternary alloys which contain tellurium as a major component and two of the three noble metals (Cu, Ag, Au) as minor components. The metastable phases found in this investigation are either simple cubic or amorphous. The formation of the simple cubic phase is discussed. The electrical resistance and the thermoelectric power of the simple cubic alloy (Au₃₀Te₇₀) have been measured and interpreted in terms of atomic bondings. The semiconducting properties of a metastable amorphous alloy (Au₅Cu₂₅Te₇₀) have been measured. The experimental results are discussed in connection with a theoretical consideration of the validity of band theory in an amorphous solid. The existence of extrinsic conduction in an amorphous semiconductor is suggested by the result of electrical resistance and thermoelectric power measurements.

Effect of Microstructural Interfaces on the Mechanical Response of Crystalline Metallic Materials

Advances in nano-scale mechanical testing have brought about progress in the understanding of physical phenomena in materials and a measure of control in the fabrication of novel materials. In contrast to bulk materials that display size-invariant mechanical properties, sub-micron metallic samples show a critical dependence on sample size. The strength of nano-scale single crystalline metals is well-described by a power-law function, σαD^-n, where D is a critical sample size and n is a experimentally-fit positive exponent. This relationship is attributed to source-driven plasticity and demonstrates a strengthening as the decreasing sample size begins to limit the size and number of dislocation sources. A full understanding of this size-dependence is complicated by the presence of microstructural features such as interfaces that can compete with the dominant dislocation-based deformation mechanisms. In this thesis, the effects of microstructural features such as grain boundaries and anisotropic crystallinity on nano-scale metals are investigated through uniaxial compression testing. We find that nano-sized Cu covered by a hard coating displays a Bauschinger effect and the emergence of this behavior can be explained through a simple dislocation-based analytic model. Al nano-pillars containing a single vertically-oriented coincident site lattice grain boundary are found to show similar deformation to single-crystalline nano-pillars with slip traces passing through the grain boundary. With increasing tilt angle of the grain boundary from the pillar axis, we observe a transition from dislocation-dominated deformation to grain boundary sliding. Crystallites are observed to shear along the grain boundary and molecular dynamics simulations reveal a mechanism of atomic migration that accommodates boundary sliding. We conclude with an analysis of the effects of inherent crystal anisotropy and alloying on the mechanical behavior of the Mg alloy, AZ31. Through comparison to pure Mg, we show that the size effect dominates the strength of samples below 10 μm, that differences in the size effect between hexagonal slip systems is due to the inherent crystal anisotropy, suggesting that the fundamental mechanism of the size effect in these slip systems is the same.

The Colorado River; a source of water and power for Los Angeles

The rapid growth and development of Los Angeles City and County has been one of the phenomena of the present age. The growth of a city from 50,600 to 576,000, an increase of over 1000% in thirty years is an unprecedented occurrence. It has given rise to a variety of problems of increasing magnitude.

Chief among these are: supply of food, water and shelter development of industry and markets, prevention and removal of downtown congestion and protection of life and property. These, of course, are the problems that any city must face. But in the case of a community which doubles its population every ten years, radical and heroic measures must often be taken.

Response of linear, viscous damped systems to excitations having time-varying frequency

The response of linear, viscous damped systems to excitations having time-varying frequency is the subject of exact and approximate analyses, which are supplemented by an analog computer study of single degree of freedom system response to excitations having frequencies depending linearly and exponentially on time.

The technique of small perturbations and the methods of stationary phase and saddle-point integration, as well as a novel bounding procedure, are utilized to derive approximate expressions characterizing the system response envelope—particularly near resonances—for the general time-varying excitation frequency.

Descriptive measurements of system resonant behavior recorded during the course of the analog study—maximum response, excitation frequency at which maximum response occurs, and the width of the response peak at the half-power level—are investigated to determine dependence upon natural frequency, damping, and the functional form of the excitation frequency.

The laboratory problem of determining the properties of a physical system from records of its response to excitations of this class is considered, and the transient phenomenon known as “ringing” is treated briefly.

It is shown that system resonant behavior, as portrayed by the above measurements and expressions, is relatively insensitive to the specifics of the excitation frequency-time relation and may be described to good order in terms of parameters combining system properties with the time derivative of excitation frequency evaluated at resonance.

One of these parameters is shown useful for predicting whether or not a given excitation having a time-varying frequency will produce strong or subtle changes in the response envelope of a given system relative to the steady-state response envelope. The parameter is shown, additionally, to be useful for predicting whether or not a particular response record will exhibit the “ringing” phenomenon.

SteelConverter and Caltech VirtualShaker: Rapid Nonlinear Cloud-Based Structural Model Conversion and Analysis

STEEL, the Caltech created nonlinear large displacement analysis software, is currently used by a large number of researchers at Caltech. However, due to its complexity, lack of visualization tools (such as pre- and post-processing capabilities) rapid creation and analysis of models using this software was difficult. SteelConverter was created as a means to facilitate model creation through the use of the industry standard finite element solver ETABS. This software allows users to create models in ETABS and intelligently convert model information such as geometry, loading, releases, fixity, etc., into a format that STEEL understands. Models that would take several days to create and verify now take several hours or less. The productivity of the researcher as well as the level of confidence in the model being analyzed is greatly increased.

It has always been a major goal of Caltech to spread the knowledge created here to other universities. However, due to the complexity of STEEL it was difficult for researchers or engineers from other universities to conduct analyses. While SteelConverter did help researchers at Caltech improve their research, sending SteelConverter and its documentation to other universities was less than ideal. Issues of version control, individual computer requirements, and the difficulty of releasing updates made a more centralized solution preferred. This is where the idea for Caltech VirtualShaker was born. Through the creation of a centralized website where users could log in, submit, analyze, and process models in the cloud, all of the major concerns associated with the utilization of SteelConverter were eliminated. Caltech VirtualShaker allows users to create profiles where defaults associated with their most commonly run models are saved, and allows them to submit multiple jobs to an online virtual server to be analyzed and post-processed. The creation of this website not only allowed for more rapid distribution of this tool, but also created a means for engineers and researchers with no access to powerful computer clusters to run computationally intensive analyses without the excessive cost of building and maintaining a computer cluster.

In order to increase confidence in the use of STEEL as an analysis system, as well as verify the conversion tools, a series of comparisons were done between STEEL and ETABS. Six models of increasing complexity, ranging from a cantilever column to a twenty-story moment frame, were analyzed to determine the ability of STEEL to accurately calculate basic model properties such as elastic stiffness and damping through a free vibration analysis as well as more complex structural properties such as overall structural capacity through a pushover analysis. These analyses showed a very strong agreement between the two softwares on every aspect of each analysis. However, these analyses also showed the ability of the STEEL analysis algorithm to converge at significantly larger drifts than ETABS when using the more computationally expensive and structurally realistic fiber hinges. Following the ETABS analysis, it was decided to repeat the comparisons in a software more capable of conducting highly nonlinear analysis, called Perform. These analyses again showed a very strong agreement between the two softwares in every aspect of each analysis through instability. However, due to some limitations in Perform, free vibration analyses for the three story one bay chevron brace frame, two bay chevron brace frame, and twenty story moment frame could not be conducted. With the current trend towards ultimate capacity analysis, the ability to use fiber based models allows engineers to gain a better understanding of a building’s behavior under these extreme load scenarios.

Following this, a final study was done on Hall’s U20 structure [1] where the structure was analyzed in all three softwares and their results compared. The pushover curves from each software were compared and the differences caused by variations in software implementation explained. From this, conclusions can be drawn on the effectiveness of each analysis tool when attempting to analyze structures through the point of geometric instability. The analyses show that while ETABS was capable of accurately determining the elastic stiffness of the model, following the onset of inelastic behavior the analysis tool failed to converge. However, for the small number of time steps the ETABS analysis was converging, its results exactly matched those of STEEL, leading to the conclusion that ETABS is not an appropriate analysis package for analyzing a structure through the point of collapse when using fiber elements throughout the model. The analyses also showed that while Perform was capable of calculating the response of the structure accurately, restrictions in the material model resulted in a pushover curve that did not match that of STEEL exactly, particularly post collapse. However, such problems could be alleviated by choosing a more simplistic material model.

The oculomotor system: (1) Vertical-horizontal interaction and signal recognition, (2) Time delays and power spectra

In the first section of this thesis, two-dimensional properties of the human eye movement control system were studied. The vertical - horizontal interaction was investigated by using a two-dimensional target motion consisting of a sinusoid in one of the directions vertical or horizontal, and low-pass filtered Gaussian random motion of variable bandwidth (and hence information content) in the orthogonal direction. It was found that the random motion reduced the efficiency of the sinusoidal tracking. However, the sinusoidal tracking was only slightly dependent on the bandwidth of the random motion. Thus the system should be thought of as consisting of two independent channels with a small amount of mutual cross-talk.

These target motions were then rotated to discover whether or not the system is capable of recognizing the two-component nature of the target motion. That is, the sinusoid was presented along an oblique line (neither vertical nor horizontal) with the random motion orthogonal to it. The system did not simply track the vertical and horizontal components of motion, but rotated its frame of reference so that its two tracking channels coincided with the directions of the two target motion components. This recognition occurred even when the two orthogonal motions were both random, but with different bandwidths.

In the second section, time delays, prediction and power spectra were examined. Time delays were calculated in response to various periodic signals, various bandwidths of narrow-band Gaussian random motions and sinusoids. It was demonstrated that prediction occurred only when the target motion was periodic, and only if the harmonic content was such that the signal was sufficiently narrow-band. It appears as if general periodic motions are split into predictive and non-predictive components.

For unpredictable motions, the relationship between the time delay and the average speed of the retinal image was linear. Based on this I proposed a model explaining the time delays for both random and periodic motions. My experiments did not prove that the system is sampled data, or that it is continuous. However, the model can be interpreted as representative of a sample data system whose sample interval is a function of the target motion.

It was shown that increasing the bandwidth of the low-pass filtered Gaussian random motion resulted in an increase of the eye movement bandwidth. Some properties of the eyeball-muscle dynamics and the extraocular muscle "active state tension" were derived.