Three-dimensional models of mantle convection : influence of phase transitions and temperature-dependent viscosity

Two of the most important questions in mantle dynamics are investigated in three separate studies: the influence of phase transitions (studies 1 and 2), and the influence of temperature-dependent viscosity (study 3).

(1) Numerical modeling of mantle convection in a three-dimensional spherical shell incorporating the two major mantle phase transitions reveals an inherently three-dimensional flow pattern characterized by accumulation of cold downwellings above the 670 km discontinuity, and cylindrical 'avalanches' of upper mantle material into the lower mantle. The exothermic phase transition at 400 km depth reduces the degree of layering. A region of strongly-depressed temperature occurs at the base of the mantle. The temperature field is strongly modulated by this partial layering, both locally and in globally-averaged diagnostics. Flow penetration is strongly wavelength-dependent, with easy penetration at long wavelengths but strong inhibition at short wavelengths. The amplitude of the geoid is not significantly affected.

(2) Using a simple criterion for the deflection of an upwelling or downwelling by an endothermic phase transition, the scaling of the critical phase buoyancy parameter with the important lengthscales is obtained. The derived trends match those observed in numerical simulations, i.e., deflection is enhanced by (a) shorter wavelengths, (b) narrower up/downwellings (c) internal heating and (d) narrower phase loops.

(3) A systematic investigation into the effects of temperature-dependent viscosity on mantle convection has been performed in three-dimensional Cartesian geometry, with a factor of 1000-2500 viscosity variation, and Rayleigh numbers of 10^5-10^7. Enormous differences in model behavior are found, depending on the details of rheology, heating mode, compressibility and boundary conditions. Stress-free boundaries, compressibility, and temperature-dependent viscosity all favor long-wavelength flows, even in internally heated cases. However, small cells are obtained with some parameter combinations. Downwelling plumes and upwelling sheets are possible when viscosity is dependent solely on temperature. Viscous dissipation becomes important with temperature-dependent viscosity.

The sensitivity of mantle flow and structure to these various complexities illustrates the importance of performing mantle convection calculations with rheological and thermodynamic properties matching as closely as possible those of the Earth.

Earthquakes of the Nepal Himalaya : towards a physical model of the seismic cycle

Home to hundreds of millions of souls and land of excessiveness, the Himalaya is also the locus of a unique seismicity whose scope and peculiarities still remain to this day somewhat mysterious. Having claimed the lives of kings, or turned ancient timeworn cities into heaps of rubbles and ruins, earthquakes eerily inhabit Nepalese folk tales with the fatalistic message that nothing lasts forever. From a scientific point of view as much as from a human perspective, solving the mysteries of Himalayan seismicity thus represents a challenge of prime importance. Documenting geodetic strain across the Nepal Himalaya with various GPS and leveling data, we show that unlike other subduction zones that exhibit a heterogeneous and patchy coupling pattern along strike, the last hundred kilometers of the Main Himalayan Thrust fault, or MHT, appear to be uniformly locked, devoid of any of the “creeping barriers” that traditionally ward off the propagation of large events. The approximately 20 mm/yr of reckoned convergence across the Himalaya matching previously established estimates of the secular deformation at the front of the arc, the slip accumulated at depth has to somehow elastically propagate all the way to the surface at some point. And yet, neither large events from the past nor currently recorded microseismicity nearly compensate for the massive moment deficit that quietly builds up under the giant mountains. Along with this large unbalanced moment deficit, the uncommonly homogeneous coupling pattern on the MHT raises the question of whether or not the locked portion of the MHT can rupture all at once in a giant earthquake. Univocally answering this question appears contingent on the still elusive estimate of the magnitude of the largest possible earthquake in the Himalaya, and requires tight constraints on local fault properties. What makes the Himalaya enigmatic also makes it the potential source of an incredible wealth of information, and we exploit some of the oddities of Himalayan seismicity in an effort to improve the understanding of earthquake physics and cipher out the properties of the MHT. Thanks to the Himalaya, the Indo-Gangetic plain is deluged each year under a tremendous amount of water during the annual summer monsoon that collects and bears down on the Indian plate enough to pull it away from the Eurasian plate slightly, temporarily relieving a small portion of the stress mounting on the MHT. As the rainwater evaporates in the dry winter season, the plate rebounds and tension is increased back on the fault. Interestingly, the mild waggle of stress induced by the monsoon rains is about the same size as that from solid-Earth tides which gently tug at the planets solid layers, but whereas changes in earthquake frequency correspond with the annually occurring monsoon, there is no such correlation with Earth tides, which oscillate back-and-forth twice a day. We therefore investigate the general response of the creeping and seismogenic parts of MHT to periodic stresses in order to link these observations to physical parameters. First, the response of the creeping part of the MHT is analyzed with a simple spring-and-slider system bearing rate-strengthening rheology, and we show that at the transition with the locked zone, where the friction becomes near velocity neutral, the response of the slip rate may be amplified at some periods, which values are analytically related to the physical parameters of the problem. Such predictions therefore hold the potential of constraining fault properties on the MHT, but still await observational counterparts to be applied, as nothing indicates that the variations of seismicity rate on the locked part of the MHT are the direct expressions of variations of the slip rate on its creeping part, and no variations of the slip rate have been singled out from the GPS measurements to this day. When shifting to the locked seismogenic part of the MHT, spring-and-slider models with rate-weakening rheology are insufficient to explain the contrasted responses of the seismicity to the periodic loads that tides and monsoon both place on the MHT. Instead, we resort to numerical simulations using the Boundary Integral CYCLes of Earthquakes algorithm and examine the response of a 2D finite fault embedded with a rate-weakening patch to harmonic stress perturbations of various periods. We show that such simulations are able to reproduce results consistent with a gradual amplification of sensitivity as the perturbing period get larger, up to a critical period corresponding to the characteristic time of evolution of the seismicity in response to a step-like perturbation of stress. This increase of sensitivity was not reproduced by simple 1D-spring-slider systems, probably because of the complexity of the nucleation process, reproduced only by 2D-fault models. When the nucleation zone is close to its critical unstable size, its growth becomes highly sensitive to any external perturbations and the timings of produced events may therefore find themselves highly affected. A fully analytical framework has yet to be developed and further work is needed to fully describe the behavior of the fault in terms of physical parameters, which will likely provide the keys to deduce constitutive properties of the MHT from seismological observations.

Aseismic deformation in subduction megathrusts : central Andes and north-east Japan

We aim to characterize fault slip behavior during all stages of the seismic cycle in subduction megathrust environments with the eventual goal of understanding temporal and spatial variations of fault zone rheology, and to infer possible causal relationships between inter-, co- and post-seismic slip, as well as implications for earthquake and tsunami hazard. In particular we focus on analyzing aseismic deformation occurring during inter-seismic and post-seismic periods of the seismic cycle. We approach the problem using both Bayesian and optimization techniques. The Bayesian approach allows us to completely characterize the model parameter space by searching a posteriori estimates of the range of allowable models, to easily implement any kind of physically plausible a priori information and to perform the inversion without regularization other than that imposed by the parameterization of the model. However, the Bayesian approach computational expensive and not currently viable for quick response scenarios. Therefore, we also pursue improvements in the optimization inference scheme. We present a novel, robust and yet simple regularization technique that allows us to infer robust and somewhat more detailed models of slip on faults. We apply such methodologies, using simple quasi-static elastic models, to perform studies of inter- seismic deformation in the Central Andes subduction zone, and post-seismic deformation induced by the occurrence of the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in Japan. For the Central Andes, we present estimates of apparent coupling probability of the subduction interface and analyze its relationship to past earthquakes in the region. For Japan, we infer high spatial variability in material properties of the megathrust offshore Tohoku. We discuss the potential for a large earthquake just south of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake where our inferences suggest dominantly aseismic behavior.

Dynamical models for the Earth's geoid

The Earth's largest geoid anomalies occur at the lowest spherical harmonic degrees, or longest wavelengths, and are primarily the result of mantle convection. Thermal density contrasts due to convection are partially compensated by boundary deformations due to viscous flow whose effects must be included in order to obtain a dynamically consistent model for the geoid. These deformations occur rapidly with respect to the timescale for convection, and we have analytically calculated geoid response kernels for steady-state, viscous, incompressible, self-gravitating, layered Earth models which include the deformation of boundaries due to internal loads. Both the sign and magnitude of geoid anomalies depend strongly upon the viscosity structure of the mantle as well as the possible presence of chemical layering.

Correlations of various global geophysical data sets with the observed geoid can be used to construct theoretical geoid models which constrain the dynamics of mantle convection. Surface features such as topography and plate velocities are not obviously related to the low-degree geoid, with the exception of subduction zones which are characterized by geoid highs (degrees 4-9). Recent models for seismic heterogeneity in the mantle provide additional constraints, and much of the low-degree (2-3) geoid can be attributed to seismically inferred density anomalies in the lower mantle. The Earth's largest geoid highs are underlain by low density material in the lower mantle, thus requiring compensating deformations of the Earth's surface. A dynamical model for whole mantle convection with a low viscosity upper mantle can explain these observations and successfully predicts more than 80% of the observed geoid variance.

Temperature variations associated with density anomalies in the man tie cause lateral viscosity variations whose effects are not included in the analytical models. However, perturbation theory and numerical tests show that broad-scale lateral viscosity variations are much less important than radial variations; in this respect, geoid models, which depend upon steady-state surface deformations, may provide more reliable constraints on mantle structure than inferences from transient phenomena such as postglacial rebound. Stronger, smaller-scale viscosity variations associated with mantle plumes and subducting slabs may be more important. On the basis of numerical modelling of low viscosity plumes, we conclude that the global association of geoid highs (after slab effects are removed) with hotspots and, perhaps, mantle plumes, is the result of hot, upwelling material in the lower mantle; this conclusion does not depend strongly upon plume rheology. The global distribution of hotspots and the dominant, low-degree geoid highs may correspond to a dominant mode of convection stabilized by the ancient Pangean continental assemblage.