What Belongs Where? Variable Selection for Zero-Inflated Count Models with an Application to the Demand for Health Care

This paper develops stochastic search variable selection (SSVS) for zero-inflated count models which are commonly used in health economics. This allows for either model averaging or model selection in situations with many potential regressors. The proposed techniques are applied to a data set from Germany considering the demand for health care. A package for the free statistical software environment R is provided.

First study of the radiation-amplitude zero in W gamma production and limits on anomalous WW gamma couplings at root s=1.96 TeV

We present results from a study of p (p) over bar -> W gamma+X events utilizing data corresponding to 0.7 fb(-1) of integrated luminosity at root s = 1.96 TeV collected by the D0 detector at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider. We set limits on anomalous WW gamma couplings at the 95% C.L. The one-dimensional 95% C.L. limits are 0.49 ation-amplitude zero in the W gamma system.

First study of the radiation-amplitude zero in W gamma production and limits on anomalous WW gamma couplings at root s=1.96 TeV

We present results from a study of pp̄→Wγ+X events utilizing data corresponding to 0.7fb-1 of integrated luminosity at s=1.96TeV collected by the D0 detector at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider. We set limits on anomalous WWγ couplings at the 95% C.L. The one-dimensional 95% C.L. limits are 0.49<κγ<1.51 and -0.12<λγ<0.13. We make the first study of the charge-signed rapidity difference between the lepton and the photon and find it to be indicative of the standard model radiation-amplitude zero in the Wγ system. © 2008 The American Physical Society.

Zero-rating in emerging mobile markets: Free Basics and Wikipedia Zero in Ghana

Despite widespread controversy surrounding zero-rating—that is, the practice of subsidizing mobile data—the field suffers from a lack of inquiry into user understanding of and experience with zero-rated services. This paper explores how Ghanaian mobile users interact with zero-rated mobile applications Free Basics and Wikipedia Zero. Based on semi-structured interviews with users and non-users of the applications, I discuss how mobile phone users perceive Free Basics and Wikipedia Zero, what motivates them to use or not use the applications, and how the availability of the applications influences their data-buying strategies. Findings suggest that respondents, including those who did not actively use the applications, understood and experienced Free Basics and Wikipedia Zero in ways divergent from the providers’ aim of expanding access to online content and services.

Problemas elípticos com potencial que pode tender a zero no in?nito

Pós-graduação em Matemática - IBILCE

Time variation of some selected topics in bioethical publications

Objective: To analyse the time variation of topics in bioethical publications as a proxy of the relative importance. Methods: We searched the Medline database for bioethics publications using the words ""ethics or bioethics'', and for 360 specific topics publications, associating Medical Subject Heading topic descriptors to those words. We calculated the ratio of bioethics publications to the total publications of Medline, and the ratio of each topic publications to the total bioethics publications, for five-year intervals, from 1970 to 2004. We calculated the time variation of ratios, dividing the difference between the highest and lowest ratio of each topic by its highest ratio. Four topics were described, selected to illustrate different patterns of variation: ""Induced Abortion'', ""Conflict of Interest'', ""Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome'', ""Medical Education.'' Results: The ratio of bioethics publications to total Medline publications increased from 0.003 to 0.012. The variation of the topic's ratios was higher than 0.7 for 68% of the topics. The Induced Abortion ratios decreased from 0.12 to 0.02. Conflict of Interest ratios increased from zero to 0.07. The Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome ratios were nearly zero in the first three intervals, had a peak of 0.06 during 1985-9, followed by a decrease to 0.01. Medical Education ratios varied few, from 0.04 to 0.03. Conclusions: There was an increase of bioethical publications in the Medline database. The topics in bioethics literature have an important time variation. Some factors were suggested to explain this variation: current legal cases, resolution of the issue, saturation of a discussion and epidemiologic importance.

Outbreak of vancomycin-resistant enterococci in a tertiary hospital: The lack of effect of measures directed mainly by surveillance cultures and differences in response between Enterococcus faecium and Enterococcus faecalis

To describe the effect of active surveillance to control vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE) after an outbreak, 549 surveillance rectal cultures were performed in 308 patients (35% positive). An educational intervention to prevent transmission was implemented. Infection and colonization by VR-Enterococcus faecalis decreased, but Enterococcus faecium persisted despite control measures. Infections by VR-E faecalis fell to zero in 2008. We observed difficulties in controlling colonization with measures directed mainly by surveillance cultures and differences between responses of E faecium and E faecalis.

Testing the TASP: An Experimental Investigation of Learning in Games with Unstable Equilibria

We report experiments designed to test between Nash equilibria that are stable and unstable under learning. The “TASP” (Time Average of the Shapley Polygon) gives a precise prediction about what happens when there is divergence from equilibrium under fictitious play like learning processes. We use two 4 x 4 games each with a unique mixed Nash equilibrium; one is stable and one is unstable under learning. Both games are versions of Rock-Paper-Scissors with the addition of a fourth strategy, Dumb. Nash equilibrium places a weight of 1/2 on Dumb in both games, but the TASP places no weight on Dumb when the equilibrium is unstable. We also vary the level of monetary payoffs with higher payoffs predicted to increase instability. We find that the high payoff unstable treatment differs from the others. Frequency of Dumb is lower and play is further from Nash than in the other treatments. That is, we find support for the comparative statics prediction of learning theory, although the frequency of Dumb is substantially greater than zero in the unstable treatments.

Model Switching and Model Averaging in Time- Varying Parameter Regression Models

This paper investigates the usefulness of switching Gaussian state space models as a tool for implementing dynamic model selecting (DMS) or averaging (DMA) in time-varying parameter regression models. DMS methods allow for model switching, where a different model can be chosen at each point in time. Thus, they allow for the explanatory variables in the time-varying parameter regression model to change over time. DMA will carry out model averaging in a time-varying manner. We compare our exact approach to DMA/DMS to a popular existing procedure which relies on the use of forgetting factor approximations. In an application, we use DMS to select different predictors in an in ation forecasting application. We also compare different ways of implementing DMA/DMS and investigate whether they lead to similar results.

Effects of enteral carbohydrates on de novo lipogenesis in critically ill patients.

BACKGROUND: Conversion of glucose into lipid (de novo lipogenesis; DNL) is a possible fate of carbohydrate administered during nutritional support. It cannot be detected by conventional methods such as indirect calorimetry if it does not exceed lipid oxidation. OBJECTIVE: The objective was to evaluate the effects of carbohydrate administered as part of continuous enteral nutrition in critically ill patients. DESIGN: This was a prospective, open study including 25 patients nonconsecutively admitted to a medicosurgical intensive care unit. Glucose metabolism and hepatic DNL were measured in the fasting state or after 3 d of continuous isoenergetic enteral feeding providing 28%, 53%, or 75% carbohydrate. RESULTS: DNL increased with increasing carbohydrate intake (f1.gif" BORDER="0"> +/- SEM: 7.5 +/- 1.2% with 28% carbohydrate, 9.2 +/- 1.5% with 53% carbohydrate, and 19.4 +/- 3.8% with 75% carbohydrate) and was nearly zero in a group of patients who had fasted for an average of 28 h (1.0 +/- 0.2%). In multiple regression analysis, DNL was correlated with carbohydrate intake, but not with body weight or plasma insulin concentrations. Endogenous glucose production, assessed with a dual-isotope technique, was not significantly different between the 3 groups of patients (13.7-15.3 micromol * kg(-1) * min(-1)), indicating impaired suppression by carbohydrate feeding. Gluconeogenesis was measured with [(13)C]bicarbonate, and increased as the carbohydrate intake increased (from 2.1 +/- 0.5 micromol * kg(-1) * min(-1) with 28% carbohydrate intake to 3.7 +/- 0.3 micromol * kg(-1) * min(-1) with 75% carbohydrate intake, P: < 0. 05). CONCLUSION: Carbohydrate feeding fails to suppress endogenous glucose production and gluconeogenesis, but stimulates DNL in critically ill patients.

Population genetic structure in the native and introduced range of the Argentine ant/

SUMMARY : The evolution of animal societies, where some individuals forego their own reproductive opportunities to help others to reproduce, poses an evolutionary paradox that can be traced back to Darwin. Altruism may evolve through kin selection when the donor and recipient of altruistic acts are related to each other. In social insects, workers are generally highly related to the brood they rear when colonies are headed by a single queen. Yet some ants have an extraordinary social organization, called unicoloniality, whereby individuals from separate nests mix freely to form large supercolonies, which in some cases extend over hundreds of km. These supercolonies are characterised by a high number of queens (polygyny) and an absence of clear colony boundaries. This type of social organization represents an evolutionary paradox because relatedness between nestmates is effectively zero. In such conditions, kin selection cannot account for the evolution of reproductive altruism. Moreover, unicoloniality is thought to be unstable over time, because workers that can no longer aid close relatives may evolve more selfish strategies. The Argentine ant (Linepithema humile) is a highly invasive species listed among the hundred world's worst invaders by the UICN. Native from South America, L. humile has been accidentally introduced throughout the world. Native populations have been described as noninvasive with a family-based organization. In contrast, within its introduction range, they form unicolonial supercolonies that contain numerous nests without intraspecific aggression. The development of such unicolonial populations has been explained as a direct consequence of the ant's introduction into a new habitat, favouring a transition from family-based to open colonies. To determine if the social structure of the Argentine ant is fundamentally different between the native and the introduced range, we studied genetically and behaviourally native and introduced populations of L. humile over different geographic scales. Our results clearly indicated that there are no fundamental differences in the social organisation of the Argentine ant between the two ranges. Our investigations revealed that, contrary to previous claims, native populations have a unicolonial social organisation very similar to that observed in the introduced range. Consequently, the unicolonial social structure of the Argentine ant does not stem from a shift in social organization associated with introduction into new habitats but evolved in the native range and is likely a stable, evolutionarily ancient adaptation to the local environment. Our study on native populations of L. humile also gave important insight in the comprehension of the evolution of unicoloniality in the Argentine ant. Native supercolonies are relatively small compared to introduced ones and may co-habit in a same population. These supercolonies are genetically highly differentiated leading to a significant relatedness among nestmate workers when the different supercolonies of a population are taken as a reference population. This provides the necessary conditions for loin selection to operate. Furthermore, we examined a native population over time, which revealed a high supercolony extinction rate. If more competitive supercolonies are more likely to survive or replace other supercolonies, a subtle dynamical process between the spread of selfish traits within supercolony and the selective elimination of supercolonies with such traits may allow a stable equilibrium and the persistence of unicoloniality over time. Finally, a worldwide study of the Argentine ant showed that the introduced supercolonies originate from numerous independent introduction events. In conclusion, the success of the Argentine ant does not stem from a shift in social organization associated with its introduction into new habitats, but is most probably explained by the intrinsic characteristics developed in its native range. RESUME : L'altruisme de reproduction où certains individus renoncent à leur propre reproduction pour aider d'autres individus à se reproduire constitue l'un des plus grand paradoxe de l'évolution. En effet, comment expliquer l'évolution de comportements qui tendent à augmenter les chances de survie et le succès reproductif d'autres individus, alors que ces actes diminuent l'aptitude de leurs auteurs ? La théorie de la sélection de parentèle permet de résoudre ce problème. Cette théorie stipule qu'en aidant de proches parents à se reproduire, les individus peuvent promouvoir indirectement la transmission de copies de leurs propres gènes à la génération suivante. Chez les insectes sociaux, l'altruisme des ouvrières s'explique par la théorie de sélection de parentèle lorsque les colonies sont monogynes (constituées d'une seule reine) puisque les ouvrières sont fortement apparentées aux couvains dont elles s'occupent. Par contre, les espèces dites unicoloniales, dont les colonies forment des réseaux de nids appelés supercolonies, représentent toujours un paradoxe pour les théories de l'évolution puisque l'apparentement entre les différents individus d'un nid est nulle. De plus, l'unicolonialité ne devrait pas être stable sur le long terme parce que les ouvrières qui ne s'occupent plus de leur apparentés devraient développer des stratégies plus égoïstes au cours du temps. La fourmi d'Argentine (Linepithema humile) est une espèce invasive ayant un impact considérable sur son environnement. Originaire d'Amérique du Sud, elle a été introduite dans pratiquement toutes les régions du monde dont le climat est de type méditerranéen. Son incroyable succès invasif s'explique par sa structure sociale unicoloniale observée dans chacun des pays où elle a été introduite. Par contre, les rares études effectuées en Argentine ont suggéré que la fourmi d'Argentine n'était pas unicoloniale dans son aire native. L'unicolonialité chez la fourmi d'Argentine était donc considéré comme une conséquence de son introduction dans de nouveaux environnements. Durant cette thèse, nous avons vérifié si la structure sociale de cette espèce différait fondamentalement entre l'aire native et introduite. Pour cela, nous avons étudié, à différentes échelles géographiques, des populations introduites et argentines avec une approche génétique et comportementale. L'ensemble de nos résultats montrent que les différences entre les deux structure sociales ne sont pas aussi importantes que ce que l'on imaginait. Les populations natives sont aussi constituées de réseaux de nids coopérants. La taille de ses supercolonies est toutefois bien moins importante en Argentine et il n'est pas rare de trouver plusieurs supercolonies cohabitantes dans une même population. Nous avons démontré que ces réseaux de nids étaient constitués d'individus qui sont plus apparentés entre eux qu'ils ne le sont avec les individus d'autres supercolonies, ainsi l'unicolonialité dans son aire d'origine ne représente pas un réel paradoxe pour les théories de l'évolution. Finalement nous avons étudié la même population en Argentine à six ans d'intervalle et avons constaté que les supercolonies avaient un taux de survie très faible ce qui pourrait expliquer la stabilité de l'unicolonialité au cours du temps. Si les supercolonies les plus compétitives survivent mieux que les supercolonies dans lesquelles apparaissent des traits égoïstes, on devrait alors observer une dynamique entre l'apparition de traits égoïstes et l'élimination des supercolonies dans lesquelles ces traits égoïstes évolueraient. Finalement, une étude mondiale nous a montré que les supercolonies étaient originaires de nombreux événements d'introductions indépendants. En conclusion, le succès invasif de la fourmi d'Argentine n'est donc pas dû à un changement de comportement associé à son introduction mais est lié aux caractéristiques qu'elle a développées en Argentine.

Evaluation of two 99mTc-DTPA radioaerosols with different characteristics in lung ventilation studies

Two radioaerosol preparations, TechneScan®-DTPA (99mTc-DTPA, 40 mCi/3 ml; IPEN-CNEN, São Paulo, SP, Brazil) and TechneScan®-DTPA/AEROSOL (99mTc-DTPA/A, 15 mCi/1.5 ml with 0.5 ml ethanol; Mallinckrodt Medical, St. Louis, MO, USA), were compared in pulmonary ventilation studies in terms of total radiocounts and clearance after inhalation. An aerosol with ethanol is supposed to better distribute the radioparticles in the lungs. Twenty normal nonsmoking volunteers (10 men and 10 women), mean age of 23.2 years (range: 20 to 35 years), were studied. Images were obtained immediately and 30, 60 and 90 min after inhalation. Total and regional counts were obtained and the clearance half-lives of both lungs were determined. There was no difference in total counts between the two types of radioaerosol at any time (mean of ~188,000 cpm for male and female subjects at time zero in both aerosols). The highest count was obtained in the middle region of both lungs (P<0.001) with both preparations. The clearance half-life did not differ between aerosols (mean of ~80-88 min for male and female subjects for both aerosols). Small nonsignificant regional differences were observed. No differences between genders or between right and left lung were observed. 99mTc-DTPA/A generated the highest output of radioaerosol. 99mTc-DTPA with alcohol costs approximately five times more than the aerosol without alcohol. The present results show that either kind of aerosol may be adopted routinely for use in pulmonary examinations without affecting diagnosis. We suggest that the amount of 740 mBq (20 mCi) of 99mTc-DTPA in 1.5 ml saline can be used for routine examinations resulting in reduction of costs in pulmonary ventilation studies without diagnostic impairment.

Pricing inefficiencies in private real estate markets using total return swaps

Efficient markets should guarantee the existence of zero spreads for total return swaps. However, real estate markets have recorded values that are significantly different from zero in both directions. Possible explanations might suggest non-rational behaviour by inexperienced market players or unusual features of the underlying asset market. We find that institutional characteristics in the underlying market lead to market inefficiencies and, hence, to the creation of a rational trading window with upper and lower bounds within which transactions do not offer arbitrage opportunities. Given the existence of this rational trading window, we also argue that the observed spreads can substantially be explained by trading imbalances due to the limited liquidity of a newly formed market and/or to the effect of market sentiment, complementing explanations based on the lag between underlying market returns and index returns.

Effect of abomasal glucose infusion on plasma concentrations of gut peptides in periparturient dairy cows

Six Holstein cows fitted with ruminal cannulas and permanent indwelling catheters in the portal vein, hepatic vein, mesenteric vein, and an artery were used to study the effects of abomasal glucose infusion on splanchnic plasma concentrations of gut peptides. The experimental design was a randomized block design with repeated measurements. Cows were assigned to one of 2 treatments: control or infusion of 1,500 g of glucose/d into the abomasum from the day of parturition to 29 d in milk. Cows were sampled 12 ± 6 d prepartum and at 4, 15, and 29 d in milk. Concentrations of glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide, glucagon-like peptide 1(7–36) amide, and oxyntomodulin were measured in pooled samples within cow and sampling day, whereas active ghrelin was measured in samples obtained 30 min before and after feeding at 0800 h. Postpartum, dry matter intake increased at a lower rate with infusion compared with the control. Arterial, portal venous, and hepatic venous plasma concentrations of the measured gut peptides were unaffected by abomasal glucose infusion. The arterial, portal venous, and hepatic venous plasma concentrations of glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide and glucagon-like peptide 1(7–36) amide increased linearly from 12 d prepartum to 29 d postpartum. Plasma concentrations of oxyntomodulin were unaffected by day relative to parturition. Arterial and portal venous plasma concentrations of ghrelin were lower postfeeding compared with prefeeding concentrations. Arterial plasma concentrations of ghrelin were greatest prepartum and lowest at 4 d postpartum, giving a quadratic pattern of change over the transition period. Positive portal venous-arterial and hepatic venous–arterial concentration differences were observed for glucagon-like peptide 1(7–36) amide. A negative portal venous–arterial concentration difference was observed for ghrelin pre-feeding. The remaining portal venous–arterial and hepatic venous–arterial concentration differences of gut peptides did not differ from zero. In conclusion, increased postruminal glucose supply to postpartum transition dairy cows reduced feed intake relative to control cows, but did not affect arterial, portal venous, or hepatic venous plasma concentrations of gut peptide hormones. Instead, gut peptide plasma concentrations increased as lactation progressed. Thus, the lower feed intake of postpartum dairy cows receiving abomasal glucose infusion was not attributable to changes in gut peptide concentrations.

Issues in the assimilation of the sources of a trace gas by inverse modelling

The problem of reconstructing the (otherwise unknown) source and sink field of a tracer in a fluid is studied by developing and testing a simple tracer transport model of a single-level global atmosphere and a dynamic data assimilation system. The source/sink field (taken to be constant over a 10-day assimilation window) and initial tracer field are analysed together by assimilating imperfect tracer observations over the window. Experiments show that useful information about the source/sink field may be determined from relatively few observations when the initial tracer field is known very accurately a-priori, even when a-priori source/sink information is biased (the source/sink a-priori is set to zero). In this case each observation provides information about the source/sink field at positions upstream and the assimilation of many observations together can reasonably determine the location and strength of a test source.