The Effect of Four-Lane to Three-Lane Conversion on the Number of Crashes and Crash Rates in Iowa Roads, June 2005

We analyze crash data collected by the Iowa Department of Transportation using Bayesian methods. The data set includes monthly crash numbers, estimated monthly traffic volumes, site length and other information collected at 30 paired sites in Iowa over more than 20 years during which an intervention experiment was set up. The intervention consisted in transforming 15 undivided road segments from four-lane to three lanes, while an additional 15 segments, thought to be comparable in terms of traffic safety-related characteristics were not converted. The main objective of this work is to find out whether the intervention reduces the number of crashes and the crash rates at the treated sites. We fitted a hierarchical Poisson regression model with a change-point to the number of monthly crashes per mile at each of the sites. Explanatory variables in the model included estimated monthly traffic volume, time, an indicator for intervention reflecting whether the site was a “treatment” or a “control” site, and various interactions. We accounted for seasonal effects in the number of crashes at a site by including smooth trigonometric functions with three different periods to reflect the four seasons of the year. A change-point at the month and year in which the intervention was completed for treated sites was also included. The number of crashes at a site can be thought to follow a Poisson distribution. To estimate the association between crashes and the explanatory variables, we used a log link function and added a random effect to account for overdispersion and for autocorrelation among observations obtained at the same site. We used proper but non-informative priors for all parameters in the model, and carried out all calculations using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods implemented in WinBUGS. We evaluated the effect of the four to three-lane conversion by comparing the expected number of crashes per year per mile during the years preceding the conversion and following the conversion for treatment and control sites. We estimated this difference using the observed traffic volumes at each site and also on a per 100,000,000 vehicles. We also conducted a prospective analysis to forecast the expected number of crashes per mile at each site in the study one year, three years and five years following the four to three-lane conversion. Posterior predictive distributions of the number of crashes, the crash rate and the percent reduction in crashes per mile were obtained for each site for the months of January and June one, three and five years after completion of the intervention. The model appears to fit the data well. We found that in most sites, the intervention was effective and reduced the number of crashes. Overall, and for the observed traffic volumes, the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year and mile at converted sites was 32.3% (31.4% to 33.5% with 95% probability) while at the control sites, the reduction was estimated to be 7.1% (5.7% to 8.2% with 95% probability). When the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year, mile and 100,000,000 AADT was computed, the estimates were 44.3% (43.9% to 44.6%) and 25.5% (24.6% to 26.0%) for converted and control sites, respectively. In both cases, the difference in the percent reduction in the expected number of crashes during the years following the conversion was significantly larger at converted sites than at control sites, even though the number of crashes appears to decline over time at all sites. Results indicate that the reduction in the expected number of sites per mile has a steeper negative slope at converted than at control sites. Consistent with this, the forecasted reduction in the number of crashes per year and mile during the years after completion of the conversion at converted sites is more pronounced than at control sites. Seasonal effects on the number of crashes have been well-documented. In this dataset, we found that, as expected, the expected number of monthly crashes per mile tends to be higher during winter months than during the rest of the year. Perhaps more interestingly, we found that there is an interaction between the four to three-lane conversion and season; the reduction in the number of crashes appears to be more pronounced during months, when the weather is nice than during other times of the year, even though a reduction was estimated for the entire year. Thus, it appears that the four to three-lane conversion, while effective year-round, is particularly effective in reducing the expected number of crashes in nice weather.

Using stochastic dynamic programming to determine optimal fire management for Banksia ornata

1. A model of the population dynamics of Banksia ornata was developed, using stochastic dynamic programming (a state-dependent decision-making tool), to determine optimal fire management strategies that incorporate trade-offs between biodiversity conservation and fuel reduction. 2. The modelled population of B. ornata was described by its age and density, and was exposed to the risk of unplanned fires and stochastic variation in germination success. 3. For a given population in each year, three management strategies were considered: (i) lighting a prescribed fire; (ii) controlling the incidence of unplanned fire; (iii) doing nothing. 4. The optimal management strategy depended on the state of the B. ornata population, with the time since the last fire (age of the population) being the most important variable. Lighting a prescribed fire at an age of less than 30 years was only optimal when the density of seedlings after a fire was low (< 100 plants ha(-1)) or when there were benefits of maintaining a low fuel load by using more frequent fire. 5. Because the cost of management was assumed to be negligible (relative to the value of the persistence of the population), the do-nothing option was never the optimal strategy, although lighting prescribed fires had only marginal benefits when the mean interval between unplanned fires was less than 20-30 years.

Variabilidade espacial e temporal de atributos químicos do solo em povoamento de eucalipto

Nos anos mais recentes, observa-se aumento na adoção das técnicas de silvicultura de precisão em florestas plantadas no Brasil. Os plantios de eucalipto ocorrem preferencialmente em áreas com baixa fertilidade de solo e consequentemente baixa produtividade. Logo, para otimizar ao máximo a produção, é necessário saber o quanto essa cultura pode produzir em cada local (sítio). Objetivou-se aplicar uma metodologia que utiliza técnicas de estatística, geoestatística e geoprocessamento, no mapeamento da variabilidade espacial e temporal de atributos químicos do solo cultivado com eucalipto, em área de 10,09 ha, situada no sul do estado do Espírito Santo. Os atributos químicos da fertilidade do solo estudados foram: fósforo (P), potássio (K), cálcio (Ca) e magnésio (Mg), no ano da implantação do povoamento do eucalipto, em 2008, e três anos após, em 2011. O solo foi amostrado em duas profundidades, 0-0,2 m e 0,2-0,4 m, nos 94 pontos de uma malha regular, com extensão de 33 x 33 m. Os dados foram analisados pela estatística descritiva e, em seguida, pela geoestatística, por meio do ajuste de semivariogramas. Diferentes métodos de interpolação foram testados para produzir mapas temáticos mais precisos e facilitar as operações algébricas utilizadas. Com o auxílio de índices quantitativos, realizou-se uma análise geral da fertilidade do solo, por meio da álgebra de mapas. A metodologia utilizada neste estudo possibilitou mapear a variabilidade espacial e temporal de atributos químicos do solo. A análise variográfica mostrou que todos os atributos estudados apresentaram-se estruturados espacialmente, exceto para o atributo P, no Ano Zero (camada 0-0,2 m) e no Ano Três (ambas as camadas). Os melhores métodos de interpolação para o mapeamento de cada atributo químico do solo foram identificados com a ajuda gráfica do Diagrama de Taylor. Mereceram destaque, os modelos esférico e exponencial nas interpolações para a maioria dos atributos químicos do solo avaliados. Apesar de a variação espacial e temporal dos atributos estudados apresentar-se, em média, com pequena variação negativa, a metodologia usada mostrou variações positivas na fertilidade do solo em várias partes da área de estudo. Além disso, os resultados demonstram que os efeitos observados são majoritariamente em função da cultura, uma vez que não foram coletadas amostras de solo em locais adubados. A produtividade do sítio florestal apresentou-se com tendências semelhantes às variações ocorridas na fertilidade do solo, exceto para o magnésio, que se mostrou com tendências espaciais para suporte de elevadas produtividades, de até 50 m3 ha-1 ano-1. Além de mostrar claramente as tendências observadas para as variações na fertilidade do solo, a metodologia utilizada confirma um caminho operacional acessível para empresas e produtores florestais para o manejo nutricional em florestas plantadas. O uso dos mapas facilita a mobilização de recursos para melhorar a aplicação de fertilizantes e corretivos necessários.

Primeira abordagem para a sistematização do estudo de percussão em crianças entre os 3-6 anos: relatório de estágio

Resumo secção I – Prática Pedagógica - Este relatório de estágio foi realizado no âmbito da disciplina de Estágio de Ensino Especializado (EEE), do mestrado em Ensino da Música, frequentado na Escola Superior de Música de Lisboa (ESML), ramo de especialização – Percussão. O estágio decorreu nas instalações da Academia de Música de Óbidos, no ano letivo 2013/2014, com a orientação do professor de EEE, Richard Buckley. Durante o ano letivo foram lecionadas aulas a três alunos de diferentes idades que estavam inscritos nas turmas de iniciação I (1.º ano), de ensino básico (6.º ano/2.º grau) e de ensino secundário (10.º ano/6.º grau). A primeira secção deste trabalho, designada Prática Pedagógica compreende a descrição da Academia e dos alunos que dela fizeram parte. O presente relatório também expõem as práticas pedagógicas desenvolvidas com os três alunos, que serviram de amostra para o presente estudo, e que retratam o trabalho desenvolvido. Na última parte desta secção é feita uma análise crítica da atividade docente assim como uma pequena conclusão.

Traumatic Brain Injury in Iowa: An Analysis of Core Surveillance Data 2006-2008, July 15, 2011

Termed the “silent epidemic”, traumatic brain injury is the most debilitating outcome of injury characterized by the irreversibility of its damages, long-term effects on quality of life, and healthcare costs. The latest data available from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimate that nationally 50,000 people with traumatic brain injury (TBI) die each year; three times as many are hospitalized and more than twenty times as many are released from emergency room departments (ED) (CDC, 2008)1. The purpose of this report is to describe the epidemiology of TBI in Iowa to help guide policy and programming. TBI is a result of an external force which transfers energy to the brain. Stroke is caused by a disruption of blood flow in the brain that leads to brain injury. Though stroke is recognized as the 3rd leading cause of death nationally2, and is an injury that affects the brain it does not meet the definition a traumatic brain injury and is not included in this report.

Traumatic Brain Injury in Iowa Inpatient Hospital Data, 2003-2005

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, unintentional injury is the fifth leading cause of death for all age groups and the first leading cause of death for people from 1 to 44 years of age in the United States, while homicide remains the 2nd leading cause of death for 15 to 24 years old (CDC, 2006). In 2004, there were approximately 144,000 deaths due to unintentional injuries in the US; 53% of which represent people over 45 years of age (CDC, 2004). With 20,322 suicidal deaths and 13,170 homicidal deaths, intentional injury deaths affect mostly people under 45 years old. On average, there are 1,150 unintentional deaths per year in Iowa. In 2004, 37% of unintentional deaths were due to motor vehicle accidents (MTVCC) occurring across all age ranges and 30% were due to falls involving persons over 65 years of age 82% of the time (IDPH Health Stat Div., 2004). The most debilitating outcome of injury is traumatic brain injury, which is characterized by the irreversibility of its damages, long-term effects on quality of life, and healthcare costs. The latest data available from the CDC estimated that, nationally, 50,000 traumatic brain injured (TBI) people die each year; three times as many are hospitalized and more than twenty times as many are released from emergency room (ER) departments (CDC, 2006). Besides the TBI registry, brain injury data is also captured through three other data sources: 1) death certificates; 2) hospital inpatient data; and, 3) hospital outpatient data. The inpatient and outpatient hospital data are managed by the Iowa Hospital Association, which provides to Iowa Department of Public Health the hospital data without personal identifiers. (The hospitals send reports to the Agency of Health Care Research and Quality, which developed the Health Care Utilization Project and its product, the National Inpatient Sample).

Comparació entre dos mètodes d'estiraments ; estàtic i dinàmic, realitzats en l'escalfament de curses i entrenaments de 60, 100 i 110 metres tanques

Aquest estudi es basa en l'idea de que l'escurçament de la cadena musuclar posterior és una causa important del mal d'esquena en nens. És per aquest motiu que es planteja un tractament per a prevenir l'escurçament de la cadena muscular posterior i el mal d'esquena en forma de sessions de Stretching Global Actiu, mètode basat en la Reeducació Postural Global del mateix Ph.E. Souchard, que es posarà en pràctica en 3 escoles diferents de la comarca d'Osona. L'estudi té una durada de 3 cursos escolars (3r, 4t i 5è de primària) en el qual els nens seleccionats per al grup experimental (n=30) realitzaran classes de Stretching Global Actiu dues vegades a la setmana durant 3 mesos en cada curs escolar. Tres escoles més formaran el grup control (n=30) i s'espera que els nens que formen part del grup experimental millorin la flexibilitat de la cadena musuclar posterior (això es podrà observar a través dels resultats del test "sit and reach") i que no presentin mal d'esquena en el transcurs de 3 anys (durada de l'estudi).

Detection of clusters using space-time scan statistics

This paper aims at detecting spatio-temporal clustering in fire sequences using space?time scan statistics, a powerful statistical framework for the analysis of point processes. The methodology is applied to active fire detection in the state of Florida (US) identified by MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) during the period 2003?06. Results of the present study show that statistically significant clusters can be detected and localized in specific areas and periods of the year. Three out of the five most likely clusters detected for the entire frame period are localized in the north of the state, and they cover forest areas; the other two clusters cover a large zone in the south, corresponding to agricultural land and the prairies in the Everglades. In order to analyze if the wildfires recur each year during the same period, the analyses have been performed separately for the 4 years: it emerges that clusters of forest fires are more frequent in hot seasons (spring and summer), while in the southern areas, they are widely present during the whole year. The recognition of overdensities of events and the ability to locate them in space and in time can help in supporting fire management and focussing on prevention measures.

Pojkar kan visst skriva! : skrivkompetenser på nationellt prov i svenska i årskurs tre i Sverige

10-year old boys are writing texts in a National Test in the spring of 2009. The aim of this study is to increase knowledge in and understanding of boys’ writing skills through description, analysis and interpretation of the texts produced by the boys in the National Test in Swedish for junior level year three, taken in Sweden in 2009. The material consists of texts produced by boys and is focused on their ability to write. Through avoiding relating to texts produced by girls, it is possible to search, review, interpret and observe without simultaneously comparing the two genders. The aim of the test is to measure writing proficiency from a normative perspective, while I am investigating content, reception, awareness, and other aspects relevant when producing text. Genres are described through the instruction given in the test, which defines the work that takes place in the classroom and thereby my approach to the analysis. The latter is focused on finding patterns in the competence of the students rather than looking for flaws and limitations. When competence is searched for beyond the relationship to syllabi or the demands of the test in itself, the boys’ texts from the test provide a general foundation for investigating writing proficiency. Person, place and social group have been removed from the texts thereby avoiding aspects of social positioning. The texts are seen from the perspective of 10-year old boys who write texts in a National Test. The theoretical basis as provided by Ivaničs (2004; 2012) offers models for theory on writing. A socio-cultural viewpoint (Smidt, 2009; Säljö, 2000) including literacy and a holistic view on writing is found throughout. By the use of abdicative logic (see 4.4) material and theory work in mutual cooperation. The primary method hermeneutics (Gadamer 1997) and analytical closereading (Gustavsson, 1999) are used dependent on the requirements of the texts. The thesis builds its foundation through the analysis from theoretically diverse areas of science. Central to the thesis is the result that boys who write texts in the National Test, are able to write in two separate genres without conversion or the creating hybrids between the two. Furthermore, the boys inhibit extensive knowledge about other types of texts, gained from TV, film, computers, books, games, and magazines even in such a culturally bound context as a test. Texts the boy has knowledge of through other situations can implicitly be inserted in his own text, or be explicitly written with a name of the main character, title, as well as other signifiers. These texts are written to express and describe what is required in the topic heading of the test. In addition other visible results of the boys’ ability to write well occur though the multitude of methods for analysis throughout the thesis which both search, and find writing competence in the texts written by the boys.

Perfil hormonal anual de machos e fêmeas adultos de saguis (callithrix jacchus)

Many behavioral and biological variables of animals are expressed in the form of biological rhytms, down by the Circadian Timing System, that synchronize them with the environment from external stimuli such as light. One of them is the secretion profile of most circulating hormones regulated by the hypothalamuspirtuitary axis, which controls functions essential for the survival and reproduction of organisms. The sagüi, Callithrix jacchus, one of the most studied species about their endocrine physiology, is an appropriate subject for evaluating the profile of plasma prolactin and cortisol of adult males and females born in captivity throughout the year. Three male and two adult femelas were housed individually and subjected to natural environmental conditions over two years. Blood samples were used to measure the circulating levels of both hormones by methods radioimmunoassay (RIA) and immunoassay (ELISA), respectively. The analysis during the year of the plasmatic values of both hormones test was performed by ANOVA for repeated measures, the correlation of Spearman, and the test of Friedman and Student's t-test. The levels of prolactin in plasma were higher during the months in which there is a greater incidence of births of baby in the colony, possibly serving for modulating the expression of the behavior of parental care in both sexes. The plasma cortisol showed a lift in anticipation of the station with the highest birth rate and may be associated with the preparation of individual participation in caring for the baby, and also with the establishment of emotional bond between reproductive partners. Thus, this study shows that, despite the variations observed in the environment in which the animals live, plasma levels of prolactin and cortisol vary little throughout the year.

Etnobotânica de plantas antimaláricas em Barcelos, Amazonas

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Horticultura) - FCA

Efeito do espaçamento de plantio na biomassa do fuste de um clone híbrido interespecífico de Eucalyptus grandis e Eucalyptus urophylla

Pós-graduação em Ciência Florestal - FCA

Sistema plantio direto: população de plantas de milho e velocidade de semeadura em consórcio com braquiárias

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Ciência do Solo) - FCAV