Value at Risk in measuring market risk: Historical simulation

In this study the theoretical part was created to make comparison between different Value at Risk models. Based on that comparison one model was chosen to the empirical part which concentrated to find out whether the model is accurate to measure market risk. The purpose of this study was to test if Volatility-weighted Historical Simulation is accurate in measuring market risk and what improvements does it bring to market risk measurement compared to traditional Historical Simulation. Volatility-weighted method by Hull and White (1998) was chosen In order to improve the traditional methods capability to measure market risk. In this study we found out that result based on Historical Simulation are dependent on chosen time period, confidence level and how samples are weighted. The findings of this study are that we cannot say that the chosen method is fully reliable in measuring market risk because back testing results are changing during the time period of this study.

Utilização de técnicas de análise de agrupamento do risco de geada no Estado do Paraná para a cultura do milho safrinha

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

Applications of remote sensing and geographic information systems in geomorphological studies: Safaga - El Quseir area, Red Sea coast, Egypt as an example

In den letzten drei Jahrzehnten sind Fernerkundung und GIS in den Geowissenschaften zunehmend wichtiger geworden, um die konventionellen Methoden von Datensammlung und zur Herstellung von Landkarten zu verbessern. Die vorliegende Arbeit befasst sich mit der Anwendung von Fernerkundung und geographischen Informationssystemen (GIS) für geomorphologische Untersuchungen. Durch die Kombination beider Techniken ist es vor allem möglich geworden, geomorphologische Formen im Überblick und dennoch detailliert zu erfassen. Als Grundlagen werden in dieser Arbeit topographische und geologische Karten, Satellitenbilder und Klimadaten benutzt. Die Arbeit besteht aus 6 Kapiteln. Das erste Kapitel gibt einen allgemeinen Überblick über den Untersuchungsraum. Dieser umfasst folgende morphologische Einheiten, klimatischen Verhältnisse, insbesondere die Ariditätsindizes der Küsten- und Gebirgslandschaft sowie das Siedlungsmuster beschrieben. Kapitel 2 befasst sich mit der regionalen Geologie und Stratigraphie des Untersuchungsraumes. Es wird versucht, die Hauptformationen mit Hilfe von ETM-Satellitenbildern zu identifizieren. Angewandt werden hierzu folgende Methoden: Colour Band Composite, Image Rationing und die sog. überwachte Klassifikation. Kapitel 3 enthält eine Beschreibung der strukturell bedingten Oberflächenformen, um die Wechselwirkung zwischen Tektonik und geomorphologischen Prozessen aufzuklären. Es geht es um die vielfältigen Methoden, zum Beispiel das sog. Image Processing, um die im Gebirgskörper vorhandenen Lineamente einwandfrei zu deuten. Spezielle Filtermethoden werden angewandt, um die wichtigsten Lineamente zu kartieren. Kapitel 4 stellt den Versuch dar, mit Hilfe von aufbereiteten SRTM-Satellitenbildern eine automatisierte Erfassung des Gewässernetzes. Es wird ausführlich diskutiert, inwieweit bei diesen Arbeitsschritten die Qualität kleinmaßstäbiger SRTM-Satellitenbilder mit großmaßstäbigen topographischen Karten vergleichbar ist. Weiterhin werden hydrologische Parameter über eine qualitative und quantitative Analyse des Abflussregimes einzelner Wadis erfasst. Der Ursprung von Entwässerungssystemen wird auf der Basis geomorphologischer und geologischer Befunde interpretiert. Kapitel 5 befasst sich mit der Abschätzung der Gefahr episodischer Wadifluten. Die Wahrscheinlichkeit ihres jährlichen Auftretens bzw. des Auftretens starker Fluten im Abstand mehrerer Jahre wird in einer historischen Betrachtung bis 1921 zurückverfolgt. Die Bedeutung von Regentiefs, die sich über dem Roten Meer entwickeln, und die für eine Abflussbildung in Frage kommen, wird mit Hilfe der IDW-Methode (Inverse Distance Weighted) untersucht. Betrachtet werden außerdem weitere, regenbringende Wetterlagen mit Hilfe von Meteosat Infrarotbildern. Genauer betrachtet wird die Periode 1990-1997, in der kräftige, Wadifluten auslösende Regenfälle auftraten. Flutereignisse und Fluthöhe werden anhand von hydrographischen Daten (Pegelmessungen) ermittelt. Auch die Landnutzung und Siedlungsstruktur im Einzugsgebiet eines Wadis wird berücksichtigt. In Kapitel 6 geht es um die unterschiedlichen Küstenformen auf der Westseite des Roten Meeres zum Beispiel die Erosionsformen, Aufbauformen, untergetauchte Formen. Im abschließenden Teil geht es um die Stratigraphie und zeitliche Zuordnung von submarinen Terrassen auf Korallenriffen sowie den Vergleich mit anderen solcher Terrassen an der ägyptischen Rotmeerküste westlich und östlich der Sinai-Halbinsel.

On the Efficiency of the Benchmarks Used in the Asset Management

In this work we studied the efficiency of the benchmarks used in the asset management industry. In chapter 2 we analyzed the efficiency of the benchmark used for the government bond markets. We found that for the Emerging Market Bonds an equally weighted index for the country weights is probably the more suited because guarantees maximum diversification of country risk but for the Eurozone government bond market we found a GDP weighted index is better because the most important matter is to avoid a higher weight for highly indebted countries. In chapter 3 we analyzed the efficiency of a Derivatives Index to invest in the European corporate bond market instead of a Cash Index. We can state that the two indexes are similar in terms of returns, but that the Derivatives Index is less risky because it has a lower volatility, has values of skewness and kurtosis closer to those of a normal distribution and is a more liquid instrument, as the autocorrelation is not significant. In chapter 4 it is analyzed the impact of fallen angels on the corporate bond portfolios. Our analysis investigated the impact of the month-end rebalancing of the ML Emu Non Financial Corporate Index for the exit of downgraded bond (the event). We can conclude a flexible approach to the month-end rebalancing is better in order to avoid a loss of valued due to the benchmark construction rules. In chapter 5 we did a comparison between the equally weighted and capitalization weighted method for the European equity market. The benefit which results from reweighting the portfolio into equal weights can be attributed to the fact that EW portfolios implicitly follow a contrarian investment strategy, because they mechanically rebalance away from stocks that increase in price.

Definition of masks related to psychovisual features for video quality assessment

Video Quality Assessment needs to correspond to human perception. Pixel-based metrics (PSNR or MSE) fail in many circumstances for not taking into account the spatio-temporal property of human's visual perception. In this paper we propose a new pixel-weighted method to improve video quality metrics for artifacts evaluation. The method applies a psychovisual model based on motion, level of detail, pixel location and the appearance of human faces, which approximate the quality to the human eye's response. Subjective tests were developed to adjust the psychovisual model for demonstrating the noticeable improvement of an algorithm when weighting the pixels according to the factors analyzed instead of treating them equally. The analysis developed demonstrates the necessity of models adapted to the specific visualization of contents and the model presents an advance in quality to be applied over sequences when a determined artifact is analyzed.

Definition of priority areas for forest conservation through the ordered weighted averaging method

The general objective of this study was to evaluate the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) method, integrated to a geographic information systems (GIS), in the definition of priority areas for forest conservation in a Brazilian river basin, aiming at to increase the regional biodiversity. We demonstrated how one could obtain a range of alternatives by applying OWA, including the one obtained by the weighted linear combination method and, also the use of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to structure the decision problem and to assign the importance to each criterion. The criteria considered important to this study were: proximity to forest patches; proximity among forest patches with larger core area; proximity to surface water; distance from roads: distance from urban areas; and vulnerability to erosion. OWA requires two sets of criteria weights: the weights of relative criterion importance and the order weights. Thus, Participatory Technique was used to define the criteria set and the criterion importance (based in AHP). In order to obtain the second set of weights we considered the influence of each criterion, as well as the importance of each one, on this decision-making process. The sensitivity analysis indicated coherence among the criterion importance weights, the order weights, and the solution. According to this analysis, only the proximity to surface water criterion is not important to identify priority areas for forest conservation. Finally, we can highlight that the OWA method is flexible, easy to be implemented and, mainly, it facilitates a better understanding of the alternative land-use suitability patterns. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A segmentation-based and partial-volume-compensated method for an accurate measurement of lateral ventricular volumes on T-1-weighted magnetic resonance images

Lateral ventricular volumes based on segmented brain MR images can be significantly underestimated if partial volume effects are not considered. This is because a group of voxels in the neighborhood of lateral ventricles is often mis-classified as gray matter voxels due to partial volume effects. This group of voxels is actually a mixture of ventricular cerebro-spinal fluid and the white matter and therefore, a portion of it should be included as part of the lateral ventricular structure. In this note, we describe an automated method for the measurement of lateral ventricular volumes on segmented brain MR images. Image segmentation was carried in combination of intensity correction and thresholding. The method is featured with a procedure for addressing mis-classified voxels in the surrounding of lateral ventricles. A detailed analysis showed that lateral ventricular volumes could be underestimated by 10 to 30% depending upon the size of the lateral ventricular structure, if mis-classified voxels were not included. Validation of the method was done through comparison with the averaged manually traced volumes. Finally, the merit of the method is demonstrated in the evaluation of the rate of lateral ventricular enlargement. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Quantification of endocrine disruptors and pesticides in water by gas chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry. Method validation using weighted linear regression schemes

Amulti-residue methodology based on a solid phase extraction followed by gas chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry was developed for trace analysis of 32 compounds in water matrices, including estrogens and several pesticides from different chemical families, some of them with endocrine disrupting properties. Matrix standard calibration solutions were prepared by adding known amounts of the analytes to a residue-free sample to compensate matrix-induced chromatographic response enhancement observed for certain pesticides. Validation was done mainly according to the International Conference on Harmonisation recommendations, as well as some European and American validation guidelines with specifications for pesticides analysis and/or GC–MS methodology. As the assumption of homoscedasticity was not met for analytical data, weighted least squares linear regression procedure was applied as a simple and effective way to counteract the greater influence of the greater concentrations on the fitted regression line, improving accuracy at the lower end of the calibration curve. The method was considered validated for 31 compounds after consistent evaluation of the key analytical parameters: specificity, linearity, limit of detection and quantification, range, precision, accuracy, extraction efficiency, stability and robustness.

Accurate calculations of intermolecular interaction energies using explicitly correlated coupled cluster wave functions and a dispersion-weighted MP2 method.

Explicitly correlated coupled-cluster calculations of intermolecular interaction energies for the S22 benchmark set of Jurecka, Sponer, Cerny, and Hobza (Chem. Phys. Phys. Chem. 2006, 8, 1985) are presented. Results obtained with the recently proposed CCSD(T)-F12a method and augmented double-zeta basis sets are found to be in very close agreement with basis set extrapolated conventional CCSD(T) results. Furthermore, we propose a dispersion-weighted MP2 (DW-MP2) approximation that combines the good accuracy of MP2 for complexes with predominately electrostatic bonding and SCS-MP2 for dispersion-dominated ones. The MP2-F12 and SCS-MP2-F12 correlation energies are weighted by a switching function that depends on the relative HF and correlation contributions to the interaction energy. For the S22 set, this yields a mean absolute deviation of 0.2 kcal/mol from the CCSD(T)-F12a results. The method, which allows obtaining accurate results at low cost, is also tested for a number of dimers that are not in the training set.

High b-value diffusion-weighted imaging: A sensitive method to reveal white matter differences in schizophrenia.

Over the last 10 years, diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) has become an important tool to investigate white matter (WM) anomalies in schizophrenia. Despite technological improvement and the exponential use of this technique, discrepancies remain and little is known about optimal parameters to apply for diffusion weighting during image acquisition. Specifically, high b-value diffusion-weighted imaging known to be more sensitive to slow diffusion is not widely used, even though subtle myelin alterations as thought to happen in schizophrenia are likely to affect slow-diffusing protons. Schizophrenia patients and healthy controls were scanned with a high b-value (4000s/mm(2)) protocol. Apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) measures turned out to be very sensitive in detecting differences between schizophrenia patients and healthy volunteers even in a relatively small sample. We speculate that this is related to the sensitivity of high b-value imaging to the slow-diffusing compartment believed to reflect mainly the intra-axonal and myelin bound water pool. We also compared these results to a low b-value imaging experiment performed on the same population in the same scanning session. Even though the acquisition protocols are not strictly comparable, we noticed important differences in sensitivities in the favor of high b-value imaging, warranting further exploration.

Method for performing cerebral perfusion-weighted MRI in neonates

Cerebral perfusion-weighted imaging (PWI) in neonates is known to be technically difficult and there are very few published studies on its use in preterm infants. In this paper, we describe one convenient method to perform PWI in neonates, a method only recently used in newborns. A device was used to manually inject gadolinium contrast material intravenously in an easy, quick and reproducible way. We studied 28 newborn infants, with various gestational ages and weights, including both normal infants and those suffering from different brain pathologies. A signal intensity-time curve was obtained for each infant, allowing us to build perfusion maps. This technique offered a fast and easy method to manually inject a bolus gadolinium contrast material, which is essential in performing PWI in neonates. Cerebral PWI is technically feasible and reproducible in neonates of various gestational age and with various pathologies.

High b-value Diffusion-weighted Imaging: A Sensitive Method to Reveal White Matter Changes in Schizophrenia

Background: b-value is the parameter characterizing the intensity of the diffusion weighting during image acquisition. Data acquisition is usually performed with low b value (b~1000 s/mm2). Evidence shows that high b-values (b>2000 s/mm2) are more sensitive to the slow diffusion compartment (SDC) and maybe more sensitive in detecting white matter (WM) anomalies in schizophrenia.Methods: 12 male patients with schizophrenia (mean age 35 +/-3 years) and 16 healthy male controls matched for age were scanned with a low b-value (1000 s/mm2) and a high b-value (4000 s/mm2) protocol. Apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) is a measure of the average diffusion distance of water molecules per time unit (mm2/s). ADC maps were generated for all individuals. 8 region of interests (frontal and parietal region bilaterally, centrum semi-ovale bilaterally and anterior and posterior corpus callosum) were manually traced blind to diagnosis.Results: ADC measures acquired with high b-value imaging were more sensitive in detecting differences between schizophrenia patients and healthy controls than low b-value imaging with a gain in significance by a factor of 20- 100 times despite the lower image Signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). Increased ADC was identified in patient's WM (p=0.00015) with major contributions from left and right centrum semi-ovale and to a lesser extent right parietal region.Conclusions: Our results may be related to the sensitivity of high b-value imaging to the SDC believed to reflect mainly the intra-axonal and myelin bound water pool. High b-value imaging might be more sensitive and specific to WM anomalies in schizophrenia than low b-value imaging

Method validation using weighted linear regression models for quantification of UV filters in water samples

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Solving the multiobjective environmental/economic dispatch problem using weighted sum and ε-constraint strategies and a predictor-corrector primal-dual interior point method

This paper proposes a technique for solving the multiobjective environmental/economic dispatch problem using the weighted sum and ε-constraint strategies, which transform the problem into a set of single-objective problems. In the first strategy, the objective function is a weighted sum of the environmental and economic objective functions. The second strategy considers one of the objective functions: in this case, the environmental function, as a problem constraint, bounded above by a constant. A specific predictor-corrector primal-dual interior point method which uses the modified log barrier is proposed for solving the set of single-objective problems generated by such strategies. The purpose of the modified barrier approach is to solve the problem with relaxation of its original feasible region, enabling the method to be initialized with unfeasible points. The tests involving the proposed solution technique indicate i) the efficiency of the proposed method with respect to the initialization with unfeasible points, and ii) its ability to find a set of efficient solutions for the multiobjective environmental/economic dispatch problem.