Dynamics and Thermodynamics of the Arabian Sea Warm Pool

The present study examines the importance of low saline waters and resulting barrier layer in the dynamics of the ASWP using observational data.The oceanic general circulation models (OGCM) are very useful for exploring the processes responsible for the ASWP and their variability. The circulation and thermohaline structure stimulated by an OGCM changes a lot when the resolution is increased from mesoscale to macro scale. For a reasonable simulation of the ASWP, we must include the mesoscale turbulence in numerical models. Especially the SEAS is an eddy prominent region with a horizontal dimension of 100 to 500 km and vertical extent of hundred meters. These eddies may have an important role on the evolution of ASWP, which has not been explored so far.Most of the earlier studies in the SEAS showed that the heat buildup in the mixed layer during the pre-monsoon (March-May) is primarily driven by the surface heat flux through the ocean-atmosphere interface, while the 3-dimensional heat budget of the ML physical processes that are responsible for the formation of the ASWP are unknown. With this background the present thesis also examines the relative importance of mixed layer processes that lead to the formation of warm pool in the SEAS.

Characteristics of Arabian Sea mini warm pool and Indian summer monsoon

Arabian Sea Mini Warm Pool (ASMWP) is a part of the Indian Ocean Warm Pool and formed in the eastern Arabian Sea prior to the onset of the summer monsoon season. This warm pool attained its maximum intensity during the pre-monsoon season and dissipated with the commencement of summer monsoon. The main focus of the present work was on the triggering of the dissipation of this warm pool and its relation to the onset of summer monsoon over Kerala. This phenomenon was studied utilizing NCEP/NCAR (National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric and Research) re-analysis data, TRMM Micro wave Imager (TMI) and observational data. To define the ASMWP, sea surface temperature exceeding 30.25 C was taken as the criteria. The warm pool attained its maximum dimension and intensity nearly 2 weeks prior to the onset of summer monsoon over Kerala. Interestingly, the warm pool started its dissipation immediately after attaining its maximum core temperature. This information can be included in the present numerical models to enhance the prediction capability. It was also found that the extent and intensity of the ASMWP varied depending on the type of monsoon i.e., excess, normal, and deficient monsoon. Maximum core temperature and wide coverage of the warm pool observed during the excess monsoon years compared to normal and deficient monsoon years. The study also revealed a strong relationship between the salinity in the eastern Arabian Sea and the nature of the monsoon

Processes driving intraseasonal displacements of the eastern edge of the warm pool: the contribution of westerly wind events

We investigate the processes responsible for the intraseasonal displacements of the eastern edge of the western Pacific warm pool (WPEE), which appear to play a role in the onset and development of El Niño events. We use 25 years of output from an ocean general circulation model experiment that is able to accurately capture the observed displacements of the WPEE, sea level anomalies, and upper ocean zonal currents at intraseasonal time scales in the western and central Pacific Ocean. Our results confirm that WPEE displacements driven by westerly wind events (WWEs) are largely controlled by zonal advection. This paper has also two novel findings: first, the zonal current anomalies responsible for the WPEE advection are driven primarily by local wind stress anomalies and not by intraseasonal wind-forced Kelvin waves as has been shown in most previous studies. Second, we find that intraseasonal WPEE fluctuations that are not related to WWEs are generally caused by intraseasonal variations in net heat flux, in contrast to interannual WPEE displacements that are largely driven by zonal advection. This study hence raises an interesting question: can surface heat flux-induced zonal WPEE motions contribute to El Niño–Southern Oscillation evolution, as WWEs have been shown to be able to do?

Late Miocene development of the western Pacific warm pool: Planktonic foraminifer and oxygen isotopic evidence

The disappearance at ~10 Ma of the deep dwelling planktonic foraminifer Globoquadrina dehiscens from the western Pacific including the South China Sea was about 3 Myr earlier than its final extinction elsewhere. Accompanying this event at ~10 Ma was a series of faunal turnover characterized by increase in mixed layer, warm-water species and decrease to a minimum in deepwater species. Paleobiological and isotopic evidence indicates sea surface warming and a deepened local thermocline that we interpret as related to the development of an early western Pacific warm pool. The stepwise decline of G. dehiscens and other deep dwelling species from the NW and SW Pacific suggests more intensive warm water pileup than equatorial localities where surface bypass flow through the narrowing Indonesia seaway appears to remain efficient during the late Miocene. Planktonic delta18O values from the South China Sea consistently lighter than the tropical western Pacific during the Miocene also suggest, similar to today, more variable hydrologic conditions along the periphery than in the core of the warm pool. Stronger hydrologic variability affected mainly by monsoons and increased thermal gradient along the western margin of the late Miocene warm pool may have contributed to the decline of deep dwelling planktonic species including the early extinction of G. dehiscens from the South China Sea region. The late Miocene warm pool became influential and paleobiologically detectable from ~10 Ma, but the modern warm pool did not appear until about 4 Ma, in the middle Pliocene.

Chronology and stable carbon isotopic ratios of sediments from the Western Pacific Warm Pool region

Instrumental data suggest that major shifts in tropical Pacific atmospheric dynamics and hydrology have occurred within the past century, potentially in response to anthropogenic warming. To better understand these trends, we use the hydrogen isotopic ratios of terrestrial higher plant leaf waxes (DDwax) in marine sediments from southwest Sulawesi, Indonesia, to compile a detailed reconstruction of central Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) hydrologic variability spanning most of the last two millennia. Our paleodata are highly correlated with a monsoon reconstruction from Southeast Asia, indicating that intervals of strong East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) activity are associated with a weaker Indonesian monsoon (IM). Furthermore, the centennial-scale oscillations in our data follow known changes in Northern Hemisphere climate (e.g., the Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Period) implying a dynamic link between Northern Hemisphere temperatures and IPWP hydrology. The inverse relationship between the EASM and IM suggests that migrations of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and associated changes in monsoon strength caused synoptic hydrologic shifts in the IPWP throughout most of the past two millennia.

Registre isotòpic d'alquenones i lípids terrestres en sediment marí: una reconstrucció paleoclimàtica a l'oceà Índic

Projecte de recerca elaborat a partir d’una estada a la Institute of mineralogy and geochemistry de la University of Lausanne, Suïssa, entre 2007 i 2009. Durant l’última dècada, la comunitat científica ha reconegut que les zones tropicals juguen un paper clau en els processos dinàmics que controlen el canvi climàtic global, probablement com a desencadenant dels canvis succeïts en altes latituds. A més a més, els sediments dels oceans tropicals, en trobar-se fora de l’impacte directe de les plaques de gel continentals creades durant les glaciacions, proporcionen un registre continu de les variacions climàtiques del planeta. Malgrat tot, encara hi ha moltes incògnites sobre el paper específic de les zones tropicals, especialment pel que fa a les variacions brusques suborbitals, degut als pocs registres d’alta resolució estudiats en aquestes àrees que abastin varis cicles glacial/interglacial. Per tal d’ajudar a clarificar el paper de les zones tropicals de l’hemisferi sud en el control del clima a escala mil•lenària s’ha estudiat la distribució i la composició isotòpica de biomarcadors moleculars marins i terrestres, a baixa resolució, en el testimoni MD98-2165 (9º39’S, 118º20’E, 2100 m de profunditat d’aigua, 42.3 m de llarg) està situat al sud-oest d’Indonèsia, on s’enregistren les temperatures superficials del mar més elevades del planeta i una elevada activitat convectiva, que té una influència en la distribució de la humitat atmosfèrica en una extensa superfície de la Terra. Les distribucions observades de biomarcadors terrígens (C23-C33 n-alcans i C20-C32 n-alcan-1-ols) són típiques del lipids de plantes superiors que arriben a l’oceà principalment per via eòlica. L’alcà de 31 àtoms de carboni i els alcohols de 28 o 32 àtoms de carboni són els homòlegs més abundants en ambdós testimonis. Cal destacar l’alcohol C32 com a homòleg principal durant les èpoques glacials, tot suggerint una expansió de les plantes tropicals C4 associada a unes condicions més àrides. La procedència d’aquests lipids queda corroborada mitjançant la seva composició isotòpica de carboni, que ens permet diferenciar la ruta fotosintètica emprada i per tant, entre el tipus de plantes.

A Diagnostic and Modeling Study on the Onset of Summer Monsoon over South Asia

This study focuses on the onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala. India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been using a semi-objective method to define monsoon onset. The main objectives of the study are to understand the monsoon onset processes, to simulate monsoon onset in a GCM using as input the atmospheric conditions and Sea Surface Temperature, 10 days earlier to the onset, to develop a method for medium range prediction of the date of onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala and to examine the possibility of objectively defining the date of Monsoon Onset over Kerala (MOK). It gives a broad description of regional monsoon systems and monsoon onsets over Asia and Australia. Asian monsoon includes two separate subsystems, Indain monsoon and East Asian monsoon. It is seen from this study that the duration of the different phases of the onset process are dependent on the period of ISO. Based on the study of the monsoon onset process, modeling studies can be done for better understanding of the ocean-atmosphere interaction especially those associated with the warm pool in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea.

Salient Features of the North Indian Ocean Associated with the Indian summer Monsoon

This study deals with the salient features of the north Indian ocean associated with the summer monsoon. The focus is given on the Arabian sea mini warm pool, which is a part of the Indian ocean. It primarily study the certain aspects of the atmosphere and ocean variability in the north Indian ocean. The attempt were made to understand various aspects of time –scale variability of major features occurring in the Indian summer monsoon. The result from the thesis can be utilized as an input for model studies for prediction of monsoon, understanding ocean dynamics, radar tracking and ranging etc.

Salient Features of the North Indian Ocean Associated with the Indian summer Monsoon

This study deals with the salient features of the north Indian ocean associated with the summer monsoon. The focus is given on the Arabian sea mini warm pool, which is a part of the Indian ocean. It primarily study the certain aspects of the atmosphere and ocean variability in the north Indian ocean. The attempt were made to understand various aspects of time –scale variability of major features occurring in the Indian summer monsoon. The result from the thesis can be utilized as an input for model studies for prediction of monsoon, understanding ocean dynamics, radar tracking and ranging etc.

Sea Surface Temperature-Convection Relationship in Tropical Oceans with Special Emphasis to Intraseasonal Variability of Indian Summer Monsoon

The SST convection relation over tropical ocean and its impact on the South Asian monsoon is the first part of this thesis. Understanding the complicated relation between SST and convection is important for better prediction of the variability of the Indian monsoon in subseasonal, seasonal, interannual, and longer time scales. Improved global data sets from satellite scatterometer observations of SST, precipitation and refined reanalysis of global wind fields have made it possible to do a comprehensive study of the SST convection relation. Interaction of the monsoon and Indian ocean has been discussed. A coupled feedback process between SST and the Active-Break cycle of the Asian summer monsoon is a central theme of the thesis. The relation between SST and convection is very important in the field of numerical modeling of tropical rainfall. It is well known that models generally do very well simulating rainfall in areas of tropical convergence zones but are found unable to do satisfactory simulation in the monsoon areas. Thus in this study we critically examined the different mechanisms of generation of deep convection over these two distinct regions.The study reported in chapter 3 has shown that SST - convection relation over the warm pool regions of Indian and west Pacific oceans (monsoon areas) is in such a way that convection increases with SST in the SST range 26-29 C and for SST higher than 29-30 C convection decreases with increase of SST (it is called Waliser type). It is found that convection is induced in areas with SST gradients in the warm pool areas of Indian and west Pacific oceans. Once deep convection is initiated in the south of the warmest region of warm pool, the deep tropospheric heating by the latent heat released in the convective clouds produces strong low level wind fields (Low level Jet - LLJ) on the equatorward side of the warm pool and both the convection and wind are found to grow through a positive feedback process. Thus SST through its gradient acts only as an initiator of convection. The central region of the warm pool has very small SST gradients and large values of convection are associated with the cyclonic vorticity of the LLJ in the atmospheric boundary layer. The conditionally unstable atmosphere in the tropics is favorable for the production of deep convective clouds.

Characteristics of SST over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal

Evolution of mini warm pool in the Arabian Sea just before the onset of southwest monsoon and behavior of SST in the vicinity of weather systems formed during the premonsoon, southwest monsoon and post monsoon seasons were studied using TMI SST data. The Arabian Sea mini warm pool is formed about three weeks ahead of onset of southwest monsoon. Maximum SST is found about one week ahead of monsoon onset and then the warm pool gradually dissipated. Generally, a low-pressure system is formed when the SST exceeds a certain threshold value for the formation of the system. Daily SST values are examined both in Arabian sea and Bay of Bengal to bring out the quantity of increase in SST just before the formation of the system, quantity of rapid decrease in SST during the formation of the system and the number of days required for returning to normal SST. Many cases were examined for pre-monsoon, southwest monsoon and post monsoon seasons to understand the behavior of SST pattern. It is found that the SST increases about 3° C just before the formation of the system and decreases about 4° C during the formation within 2 to 3 days and takes about 4 to 6 days to return to normal SST pattern. However, the SST pattern depends on the weather system

SST–convection relation over tropical oceans

According to current knowledge, convection over the tropical oceans increases with sea surface temperature (SST) from 26 to 29 °C, and at SSTs above 29 °C, it sharply decreases. Our research shows that it is only over the summer warm pool areas of Indian and west Pacific Oceans (monsoon areas) where the zone of maximum SST is away from the equator that this kind of SST-convection relationship exists. In these areas (1) convection is related to the SST gradient that generates low-level moisture convergence and upward vertical motion in the atmosphere. This has modelling support. Regions of SST maxima have low SST gradients and therefore feeble convection. (2) Convection initiated by SST gradient produces strong wind fields particularly cross-equatorial low-level jetstreams (LLJs) on the equator-ward side of the warm pool and both the convection and LLJ grow through a positive feedback process. Thus, large values of convection are associated with the cyclonic vorticity of the LLJ in the atmospheric boundary layer. In the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) over the east Pacific Ocean and the south Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) over the west Pacific Ocean, low-level winds from north and south hemisphere converge in the zone of maximum SST, which lies close to the equator producing there elongated bands of deep convection, where we find that convection increases with SST for the full range of SSTs unlike in the warm pool regions. The low-level wind divergence computed using QuikSCAT winds has large and significant linear correlation with convection in both the warm pool and ITCZ/SPCZ areas. But the linear correlation between SST and convection is large only for the ITCZ/SPCZ. These findings have important implications for the modelling of largescale atmospheric circulations and the associated convective rainfall over the tropical oceans

Enhancement of ENSO variability by a weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation in a coupled GCM

A coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model is used to investigate the modulation of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability due to a weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). The THC weakening is induced by freshwater perturbations in the North Atlantic, and leads to a well-known sea surface temperature dipole and a southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in the tropical Atlantic. Through atmospheric teleconnections and local coupled air–sea feedbacks, a meridionally asymmetric mean state change is generated in the eastern equatorial Pacific, corresponding to a weakened annual cycle, and westerly anomalies develop over the central Pacific. The westerly anomalies are associated with anomalous warming of SST, causing an eastward extension of the west Pacific warm pool particularly in August–February, and enhanced precipitation. These and other changes in the mean state lead in turn to an eastward shift of the zonal wind anomalies associated with El Niño events, and a significant increase in ENSO variability. In response to a 1-Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) freshwater input in the North Atlantic, the THC slows down rapidly and it weakens by 86% over years 50–100. The Niño-3 index standard deviation increases by 36% during the first 100-yr simulation relative to the control simulation. Further analysis indicates that the weakened THC not only leads to a stronger ENSO variability, but also leads to a stronger asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña events. This study suggests a role for an atmospheric bridge that rapidly conveys the influence of the Atlantic Ocean to the tropical Pacific and indicates that fluctuations of the THC can mediate not only mean climate globally but also modulate interannual variability. The results may contribute to understanding both the multidecadal variability of ENSO activity during the twentieth century and longer time-scale variability of ENSO, as suggested by some paleoclimate records.

The role of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the El Nino and Indian drought of 2002

In 2002 India experienced a severe drought, one among the five worst droughts since records began in 1871, notable for its countrywide influence. The drought was primarily due to an unprecedented break in the monsoon during July, which persisted for almost the whole month and affected most of the sub-continent. The failure of the monsoon in 2002 was not predicted and India was not prepared for the devastating impacts on, for example, agriculture. This paper documents the evolution of the 2002 Indian summer monsoon and considers the possible factors that contributed to the drought and the failure of the forecasts. The development of the 2002/2003 El Nino and the unusually high levels of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity during the monsoon season are identified as the central players. The 2002/2003 El Nino was characterised by very high sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central Pacific that developed rapidly during the monsoon season. It is suggested that the unusual character of the developing El Nino was associated with the MJO and was a consequence of the eastward extension of the West Pacific Warm Pool, brought about primarily by a series of westerly wind events (WWEs) as part of the eastward movement of the active phase of the MJO. During the boreal summer, the MJO is usually characterised by northward movement, but in 2002 the northward component of the MJO was weak and the MJO was dominated by a strong eastward component, probably driven by the abnormally high SSTs in the central Pacific. It is suggested that a positive feedback existed between the developing El Nino and the eastward component of the MJO, which weakened the active phases of the monsoon. In particular, the unprecedented monsoon break in July could be associated with the juxtaposition of strong MJO activity with a developing El Nino, both of which interfered constructively with each other to produce major perturbations to the distribution of tropical heating. Subsequently, the main impact of the developing El Nino was a modulation of the Walker circulation that led to the overall suppression of the Indian monsoon during thess latter part of the season. It is argued that the unique combination of a rapidly developing El Nino and strong MJO activity, which was timed within the seasonal cycle to have maximum impact on the Indian summer monsoon, meant that prediction of the prolonged break in July and the seasonally deficient rainfall was a challenge for both the empirical and dynamical forecasting systems. Copyright (C) 2006 Royal Meteorological Society.

A model study of oceanic mechanisms affecting Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature during the 1997-98 El Niño

In this study, the processes affecting sea surface temperature variability over the 1992–98 period, encompassing the very strong 1997–98 El Niño event, are analyzed. A tropical Pacific Ocean general circulation model, forced by a combination of weekly ERS1–2 and TAO wind stresses, and climatological heat and freshwater fluxes, is first validated against observations. The model reproduces the main features of the tropical Pacific mean state, despite a weaker than observed thermal stratification, a 0.1 m s−1 too strong (weak) South Equatorial Current (North Equatorial Countercurrent), and a slight underestimate of the Equatorial Undercurrent. Good agreement is found between the model dynamic height and TOPEX/Poseidon sea level variability, with correlation/rms differences of 0.80/4.7 cm on average in the 10°N–10°S band. The model sea surface temperature variability is a bit weak, but reproduces the main features of interannual variability during the 1992–98 period. The model compares well with the TAO current variability at the equator, with correlation/rms differences of 0.81/0.23 m s−1 for surface currents. The model therefore reproduces well the observed interannual variability, with wind stress as the only interannually varying forcing. This good agreement with observations provides confidence in the comprehensive three-dimensional circulation and thermal structure of the model. A close examination of mixed layer heat balance is thus undertaken, contrasting the mean seasonal cycle of the 1993–96 period and the 1997–98 El Niño. In the eastern Pacific, cooling by exchanges with the subsurface (vertical advection, mixing, and entrainment), the atmospheric forcing, and the eddies (mainly the tropical instability waves) are the three main contributors to the heat budget. In the central–western Pacific, the zonal advection by low-frequency currents becomes the main contributor. Westerly wind bursts (in December 1996 and March and June 1997) were found to play a decisive role in the onset of the 1997–98 El Niño. They contributed to the early warming in the eastern Pacific because the downwelling Kelvin waves that they excited diminished subsurface cooling there. But it is mainly through eastward advection of the warm pool that they generated temperature anomalies in the central Pacific. The end of El Niño can be linked to the large-scale easterly anomalies that developed in the western Pacific and spread eastward, from the end of 1997 onward. In the far-western Pacific, because of the shallower than normal thermocline, these easterlies cooled the SST by vertical processes. In the central Pacific, easterlies pushed the warm pool back to the west. In the east, they led to a shallower thermocline, which ultimately allowed subsurface cooling to resume and to quickly cool the surface layer.