Real wage rigidities and the new Keynesian model

Most central banks perceive a trade-off between stabilizing inflation and stabilizing the gap between output and desired output. However, the standard new Keynesian framework implies no such trade-off. In that framework, stabilizing inflation is equivalent to stabilizing the welfare-relevant output gap. In this paper, we argue that this property of the new Keynesian framework, which we call the divine coincidence, is due to a special feature of the model: the absence of non trivial real imperfections.We focus on one such real imperfection, namely, real wage rigidities. When the baseline new Keynesian model is extended to allow for real wage rigidities, the divine coincidence disappears, and central banks indeed face a trade-off between stabilizing inflation and stabilizing the welfare-relevant output gap. We show that not only does the extended model have more realistic normative implications, but it also has appealing positive properties. In particular, it provides a natural interpretation for the dynamic inflation-unemployment relation found in the data.

Structural unemployment

Structural unemployment is due to mismatch between available jobs and workers.We formalize this concept in a simple model of a segmented labor market with searchfrictions within segments. Worker mobility, job mobility and wage bargaining costsacross segments generate structural unemployment. We estimate the contribution ofthese costs to fluctuations in US unemployment, operationalizing segments as statesor industries. Most structural unemployment is due to wage bargaining costs, whichare large but nevertheless contribute little to unemployment fluctuations. Structuralunemployment is as cyclical as overall unemployment and no more persistent, bothin the current and in previous recessions.

The vanishing procyclicality of labor productivity

We document three changes in postwar US macroeconomic dynamics: (i) theprocyclicality of labor productivity has vanished, (ii) the relative volatility of employment has risen, and (iii) the relative (and absolute) volatility of the real wagehas risen. We propose an explanation for all three changes that is based on a common source: a decline in labor market frictions. We develop a simple model withlabor market frictions, variable effort, and endogenous wage rigidities to illustratethe mechanisms underlying our explanation. We show that the reduction in frictionsmay also have contributed to the observed decline in output volatility.

Labor markets and monetary policy: A new-Keynesian model with unemployement

We construct a utility-based model of fluctuations, with nominal rigidities andunemployment, and draw its implications for the unemployment-inflation trade-off and for the conduct of monetary policy.We proceed in two steps. We first leave nominal rigidities aside. We show that,under a standard utility specification, productivity shocks have no effect onunemployment in the constrained efficient allocation. We then focus on theimplications of alternative real wage setting mechanisms for fluctuations in un-employment. We show the role of labor market frictions and real wage rigiditiesin determining the effects of productivity shocks on unemployment.We then introduce nominal rigidities in the form of staggered price setting byfirms. We derive the relation between inflation and unemployment and discusshow it is influenced by the presence of labor market frictions and real wagerigidities. We show the nature of the tradeoff between inflation and unemployment stabilization, and its dependence on labor market characteristics. We draw the implications for optimal monetary policy.

The labor market effects of payroll taxes in a middle-income country: Evidence from Colombia

We use a panel of manufacturing plants from Colombia to analyze how the risein payroll tax rates over the 1980 s and 1990 s affected the labor market.Our estimates indicate that formal wages fall by between 1.4% and 2.3% as aresult of a 10% rise in payroll taxes. This 'less-than-full-shifting' islikely to be the result of weak linkages between benefits and taxes and thepresence of downward wage rigidities induced by a binding minimum wage inColombia. Because the costs of taxation are only partly shifted fromemployers to employees, employment should also fall. Our results indicatethat a 10% increase in payroll taxes lowered formal employment by between4% and 5%. In addition, we find less shifting and larger disemploymenteffects for production than non-production workers. These results suggestthat policies aimed at boosting the relative demand of low-skill workers byreducing social security taxes on those with low earnings may be effectivein a country like Colombia, especially if tax cuts are targeted to indirectbenefits.

Monetary policy and unemployment

Much recent research has focused on the development and analysisof extensions of the New Keynesian framework that model labor marketfrictions and unemployment explicitly. The present paper describessome of the essential ingredients and properties of those models, andtheir implications for monetary policy.

The macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks: Why are the 2000s so different from the 1970s?

We characterize the macroeconomic performance of a set of industrialized economies in the aftermath of the oil price shocks of the 1970s and of the last decade, focusing on the differences across episodes. We examine four different hypotheses for the mild effects on inflation and economic activity of the recent increase in the price of oil: (a) good luck (i.e. lack of concurrent adverse shocks), (b) smaller share of oil in production, (c) more flexible labor markets, and (d) improvements in monetary policy. Weconclude that all four have played an important role.

Notas críticas sobre a macroeconomia novo-Keynesiana

This article shows that, in spite of its great steps towards reality, new-Keynesian macroeconomics seems to be a non-systematic construction with problems originated from "ad hoc" hypothesis required to explain the non neutrality of money and the existence of disequilibria in the short run. In particular, it seems that prices and wages rigidities stand in sandy bases and that the derivation of the IS and LM curves from neoclassical fundamentals is problematic. Even disregarding the apparent difficulties of the neoclassical theory of value and distribution, the new-Keynesian connections between interest rate, money, and output do not seem fully consistent.

Business cycle asymmetries: Loss aversion, sticky prices, and wages

In this chapter, the Smets-Wouters (2003) New Kenesian model is reformulated by introducing the loss aversion utility function developed in chapter two. The purpose of this is to understand how asymmetric real business cycles are linked to asymmetric behavior of agents in a price and wage rigidities set up. The simulations of the model reveal not only that the loss aversion in consumption and leisure is a good mechanism channel for explaining business cycle asymmetries, but also is a good mechanism channel for explaining asymmetric adjustment of prices and wages. Therefore the existence of asymmetries in Phillips Curve. Moreover, loss aversion makes downward rigidities in prices and wages stronger and also reproduces a more severe and persistent fall of the employment. All in all, this model generates asymmetrical real business cycles, asymmetric price and wage adjustment as well as hysteresis.

Understanding the gains from wage flexibility: The exchange rate connection

We study the gains from increased wage flexibility and their dependence on exchange rate policy, using a small open economy model with staggered price andwage setting. Two results stand out: (i) the impact of wage adjustments on employment is smaller the more the central bank seeks to stabilize the exchange rate,and (ii) an increase in wage flexibility often reduces welfare, and more likely so ineconomies under an exchange rate peg or an exchange rate-focused monetary policy.Our findings call into question the common view that wage flexibility is particularlydesirable in a currency union.

The gender wage gap in the public and private sectors in Bangladesh

The gender wage gap is well studied in developed countries; however, recently it has generated much interest in developing countries. This thesis addresses three issues regarding the gender wage gap in Bangladesh. Firstly, it explores the wage determinants for formal public and private sector employees in Bangladesh and examines the gender pay gap. This is the first time different decomposition methods have been used to compare the sources of the gender wage gap as well as any potential discrimination effect in the formal sector of the Bangladeshi labour market. These decomposition methods are: the original Oaxaca (1973) and Blinder (1973) decomposition methods, the Neumark (1988), Cotton (1988), and Reimers (1983) methods, and the extended Oaxaca method including both the employment selection and the double selection correction in the wage equation. In addition to mentioned methods, to quantify the gender wage gap in monetary terms, a recently developed ‘simulated change’ approach by Olsen and Walby (2004) is also applied for the first time to the Bangladeshi data. By using the Labour Force Survey 2005-06, BBS (LFS 2005-06) data results show formal sector female employees earn about 32.1 per cent less than their male counterparts. Without considering the selection correction, a large range of human capital, demographic and labour market related variables are explained less than half of the total gender wage gap (21 to 46 per cent of the total wage gap) and the major part of the wage gap is unexplained (54 to 79 per cent of the total wage gap). This could partly be attributed to discrimination. Using the double selection correction method, the decomposition results changed where a small part of the wage gap was explained by the measured characteristics (only nine per cent of the total wage gap) and a major part is attributed to the discrimination and selection effect. The selection effect also reveals that exclusion of the double selection correction might lead to an overestimation of the gender wage gap in the formal sector of Bangladesh. In addition, results based on the Olsen and Walby (2004) simulation method show that, if the other characteristics of male and female employees were similar, ‘being female’ is sufficient, to generate significantly lower wages than males in the formal sector. If females in the workplace are treated as males, without considering any other endowment increases, females could increase their earnings by 4095.3 Taka1 per year. Results also indicate that not only endowment differences in human capital and work experience related variables were important, but discrimination appears to play a significant role in the total wage gap throughout the formal sector of the Bangladeshi labour market. Secondly, the study investigates whether public sector employees enjoyed a wage premium or not, compared to the private sector and whether the gender wage gap is greater in the public sector. In addition, the research considered whether there was an impact from the inclusion of the different selection correction terms in the wage equation. In Bangladesh, public sector employees have, on average, a 60 per cent wage premium over the private sector. Using both the original Oaxaca and the extended Oaxaca methods, where selection effect is partly captured by both explained and unexplained components, and using the public sector wage structure as the basis of the non-discriminatory wage structure, these methods revealed a considerably larger portion of explained (72 - 93 per cent of the total wage gap) and a smaller portion of unexplained part of the wage gap. However, if the selection correction is considered as another component of the decomposition outcome then the major portion of the total public and private sectors wage gap is justified (explained) by the effect of the selection correction and unexplained factors. Furthermore, a large part of the wage premium exists in favour of public sector female employees compared to males and the gender wage gap is lower in the public sector than the private sector. Finally, this study compares the gender wage gap of five different occupations. The gender wage gap is associated with labour market rigidities where one of the important factors is occupational segregation where females are disproportionately distributed in occupations resulting in lower earnings. The largest gender wage gap was found in agriculture, forestry, fisheries, production and transport labour jobs (56.4 per cent) and the lowest in the professional, technical administrative and managerial jobs (22.1 per cent). Substantial differences are found in the size of the endowment gap across occupations and larger variations occurred in the adjusted wage gap which varied from 21.4 per cent in sales and service occupations, to 100 per cent in professional and technical jobs (the highest). This too can be partly explained by discrimination. A reduction in the gender wage gap is expected not only to increase national income, but also to reduce poverty and lead to better outcomes for future generations. National policy should aim to reduce the gender wage gap and achieve gender wage equality in the formal sector; for example through a targeted program to remove the gender differences in education and to reduce the skill difference, with a better child care policy to encourage labour force retention and increased labour market experience for female employees, with anti-discriminatory policies and the enforcement of existing antidiscrimination policies, and a more equal distribution of males and females across occupations.

Gender wage and productivity differentials in the Portuguese tourism industry

The objective of this paper is to provide empirical evidence on the determinants of gender wage inequality in the Portuguese tourism industry. Relying on firm level wage equations and production functions, gender wage and productivity differentials are estimated and then compared in order to infer whether observed gender disparities are justifiable on the grounds that women are relatively less productive than men, or instead disparities are due to gender wage discrimination. This approach is applied to tourism industry data gathered in the matched employer-employee data set Quadros de Pessoal (Employee Records). The main findings indicate that female employees in the tourism industry in Portugal are less productive than their male colleagues and that gender differences in wages are fully explained by gender differences in productivity.