Development of environmental and natural vulnerability maps for Brazilian coastal at Sao Sebastiao in São Paulo State

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Proposta de zoneamento ambiental visando a proteção dos recursos hídricos de uma bacia hidrográfica

One of the most important natural resources for sustaining human life, water, has been losing the basic requirements of quality and quantity sufficient enough to attend the population due to water contamination'problems, often caused by human beings themselves. Because of this, the sources of this resource are often located in remote places of the natural environment to ensure the quality of the water. However, when urban expansion began to occupy these areas, which were once regarded as distant, environmental pollution problems began to occur due to occupation of the land without planning. Based on this occurrence, this study aims to propose environmental zoning for the Maxaranguape river watershed in order to protect its water resources. This is important because this river can serve as a source of supply for the metropolitan area of Natal, the capital of Rio Grande do Norte. In accordance to this proposition, the model of natural soil loss vulnerability (CREPANI et al., 2001), the model of aquifer pollution vulnerability (FOSTER et al., 2006), and the legal incompatibility map (CREPANI et al., 2001) were used to delimit the zones. All this was done with Geographic Information System (GIS) and also created a geographic database update of the basin. The results of the first model mentioned indicated that 63.67% of the basin was classified as moderately stable / vulnerable, 35.66% as moderately vulnerable, and 0.67% as vulnerable. The areas with high vulnerability degree correspond with sand dunes and river channels areas. The second model indicated that 2.84% of the basin has low vulnerability, 70.27%) has median vulnerability, and 26.76% and 0.13% has high vulnerability and extreme vulnerability, respectively. The areas with the highest vulnerability values also refer to part of the sand dunes and river channels besides other areas such as Pureza urban area. The legal incompatibility map indicated that the basin has 85.02 km2 of Permanent Protection Area (PPA) and 14.62% of this area has some incongruity of use. Based on these results it was possible to draw three main zones: Protection and Sustainable Use Zone (PSUZ), Protection and Environmental Restoration Zone (PERZ) and Environmental Control Zone, which are divided into A, B and C. The PSUZ refer to the coastal areas of the basin, where the sand dunes are located. These sites should be areas of environmental protection and of sustainable urban expansion. The ZPRA refer to river channels, which are in high need of rehabilitation. The third zone corresponds to the rest of the basin which should have, in general, the mapping of possible sources of contamination for further control on the use and occupation of the river

Análise multitemporal dos elementos geoambientais da região da Ponta do Tubarão, área de influência dos campos petrolíferos de Macau e Serra, município de Macau/RN

The study area is inserted in Ponta do Tubarão region, Macau City, setentrional littoral of Rio Grande do Norte State, composed of Tertiary and Quatemary sedimentary rocks and sediments. This region is characterized for the intense action of the coastal processes, causing the morphologic instability in part of the area, beyond the interference of human activities, as the Petroliferous Industrial Polo, salt companies and shrimp farms. This justifies the integration of multidisciplinary and multitemporal detailed scientific studies dealing with the evaluation of the changing behavior of this coastal environment by geoenvironments elements characterization, identifying protected and recuperation areas, mainly those under socioeconomic intervention. The main objective was the coastal monitoring using geoprocessing techniques to prepare thematic maps useful for oil spilling environment risk areas survey. The methodology was based on multitemporal interpretation of remote sensing images and field checking, integrated in a Geographical Information System (GIS). The Geologic, Geomorphologic, Vegetation, Soil and Land Use maps were prepared, and later on they allowed the generation of the Natural Vulnerability and Environmental Vulnerability maps. These maps had been classified in accordance with vulnerability degrees: very low, low, medi um, high and very high. Beyond these maps the GIS allowed the analysis of the shoreline evolution for 10 distinct dates, using Landsat 5 TM and 7 ETM+ and SPOT-HRVIR images. This analysis made possible the attendance of the coastal morphodynamic evolution, where the results had been represented by areasof erosion and accretion (or deposition) of sediments, pointing critical areas under erosive process to the petroliferous industry (Macau and Serra fields). The GIS also provided to prepare the Environmental Sensitivity Maps of Oil Spill (SAO Maps) in operational scale (1: 10.000), according to the norms ofthe Ministério do Meio Ambiente (MMA 2002). The SAO Map in operational scale was based on IKONOS images mosaic where the ESI (Environmental Sensitivity Index) was represented according with two tides phases of theregion. Therewere recognizedfiveESI (3, 4,7,9, 1O) for the low tide; to the high tide the ESI number increased to seven (3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10). All these information are necessary to the decisions making about oi! spill and its derivatives containment. These techniques application makes possible the optimization and implantation ofnew socioeconomics activities of low environmental impact, indicates areas for better productivity and security exploration, and benefits local communities with fauna and flora preservation. The development of these activities is inserted in the scope of Monitoramento Ambiental de Áreas de Risco a Derrames de Petróleo e Seus Derivados Cooperation Project (Rede 05/01 - PETRORISCO, FINEP/CTPETRO/PETROBRAS) of multidisciplinary and interinstitucional characteristics dealing with subjects involving the environmental monitoring and the petroliferous activity

Desenvolvimento de um sistema computacional para geração automática de mapas de vulnerabilidade como ferramenta de auxílio às ações de prevenção ao derramamento de óleo em áreas costeiras

The northern portion of the Rio Grande do Norte State is characterized by intense coastal dynamics affecting areas with ecosystems of moderate to high environmental sensitivity. In this region are installed the main socioeconomic activities of RN State: salt industry, shrimp farm, fruit industry and oil industry. The oil industry suffers the effects of coastal dynamic action promoting problems such as erosion and exposure of wells and pipelines along the shore. Thus came the improvement of such modifications, in search of understanding of the changes which causes environmental impacts with the purpose of detecting and assessing areas with greater vulnerability to variations. Coastal areas under influence oil industry are highly vulnerable and sensitive in case of accidents involving oil spill in the vicinity. Therefore, it was established the geoenvironmental monitoring of the region with the aim of evaluating the entire coastal area evolution and check the sensitivity of the site on the presence of oil. The goal of this work was the implementation of a computer system that combines the needs of insertion and visualization of thematic maps for the generation of Environmental Vulnerability maps, using techniques of Business Intelligence (BI), from vector information previously stored in the database. The fundamental design interest was to implement a more scalable system that meets the diverse fields of study and make the appropriate system for generating online vulnerability maps, automating the methodology so as to facilitate data manipulation and fast results in cases of real time operational decision-making. In database development a geographic area was established the conceptual model of the selected data and Web system was done using the template database PostgreSQL, PostGis spatial extension, Glassfish Web server and the viewer maps Web environment, the GeoServer. To develop a geographic database it was necessary to generate the conceptual model of the selected data and the Web system development was done using the PostgreSQL database system, its spatial extension PostGIS, the web server Glassfish and GeoServer to display maps in Web

Vulnerabilidade ambiental da zona costeira de Pititinga, Rio do Fogo, Rio Grande do Norte

This work presents a study on the environmental vulnerability of the coastal region of Pititinga, Rio do Fogo/RN. The coastal erosion of Pititinga beach was analyzed and considerated as one more process that produces environmental vulnerability in the area of study, taking into account its human and natural environment and establishing the relation between them, to understand the arrangement that produced its spatial configuration. The natural environment was expressed by thematics maps with geology, geomorphology, vegetation and soil themes, while the human environment was expressed by the use and occupation of the soil map. The coastal erosion was put in an erosion vulnerability map. The methodological procedure to generate the thematics maps, vulnerability maps and of the erosion coastal involved the bibliographic research, field visits with check-list form fill, collect and analysis of sediment sample, photo-interpretation techniques, integration of the information in a database, data store and spatial analysis in a Geographic Information System (GIS) ambient. The natural vulnerability map shows a predominancy of environments with low (29,6%) or medium (42,4%) vulnerability, pointed the frontal and mobile dune as the areas with the highest vulnerability. The environmental vulnerability map, presents a predominancy of environments with low vulnerability (53,8%), with the high vulnerability concentrated on Pititinga community. The coastal erosion vulnerability presented distinct behaviors on three sections among the coastal line according each one characteristics. Where there are frontal and transgressive dunes, vulnerability are, generally, medium or low, respectively, and in the absence of them, as what occurs in Pititinga community, the vulnerability is predominately very high

Avaliação da vulnerabilidade natural à contaminação do sistema aquífero Bauru, na região centro-sul do estado de São Paulo

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Mapa de vulnerabilidade ambiental ao óleo e cartas SAO: trecho Praia Grande - Ilha Comprida, litoral paulista

Pós-graduação em Geociências e Meio Ambiente - IGCE

LCA-GIS Integrated approach for a Sustainable Land Use Under Energy Crops

In genere, negli studi di vocazionalità delle colture, vengono presi in considerazione solo variabili ambientali pedo-climatiche. La coltivazione di una coltura comporta anche un impatto ambientale derivante dalle pratiche agronomiche ed il territorio può essere più o meno sensibile a questi impatti in base alla sua vulnerabilità. In questo studio si vuole sviluppare una metodologia per relazionare spazialmente l’impatto delle colture con le caratteristiche sito specifiche del territorio in modo da considerare anche questo aspetto nell’allocazione negli studi di vocazionalità. LCA è stato utilizzato per quantificare diversi impatti di alcune colture erbacee alimentari e da energia, relazionati a mappe di vulnerabilità costruite con l’utilizzo di GIS, attraverso il calcolo di coefficienti di rischio di allocazione per ogni combinazione coltura-area vulnerabile. Le colture energetiche sono state considerate come un uso alternativo del suolo per diminuire l’impatto ambientale. Il caso studio ha mostrato che l’allocazione delle colture può essere diversa in base al tipo e al numero di impatti considerati. Il risultato sono delle mappe in cui sono riportate le distribuzioni ottimali delle colture al fine di minimizzare gli impatti, rispetto a mais e grano, due colture alimentari importanti nell’area di studio. Le colture con l’impatto più alto dovrebbero essere coltivate nelle aree a vulnerabilità bassa, e viceversa. Se il rischio ambientale è la priorità, mais, colza, grano, girasole, e sorgo da fibra dovrebbero essere coltivate solo nelle aree a vulnerabilità bassa o moderata, mentre, le colture energetiche erbacee perenni, come il panico, potrebbero essere coltivate anche nelle aree a vulnerabilità alta, rappresentando cosi una opportunità per aumentare la sostenibilità di uso del suolo rurale. Lo strumento LCA-GIS inoltre, integrato con mappe di uso attuale del suolo, può aiutare a valutarne il suo grado di sostenibilità ambientale.

Estrategias innovadoras para la gestión del riesgo de sequía en sistemas ganaderos extensivos

La vulnerabilidad de los sistemas ganaderos de pastoreo pone en evidencia la necesidad de herramientas para evaluar y mitigar los efectos de la sequía. El avance en la teledetección ha despertado el interés por explotar potenciales aplicaciones, y está dando lugar a un intenso desarrollo de innovaciones en distintos campos. Una de estas áreas es la gestión del riesgo climático, en donde la utilización de índices de vegetación permite la evaluación de la sequía. En esta investigación, se analiza el impacto de la sequía y se evalúa el potencial de nuevas tecnologías como la teledetección para la gestión del riesgo de sequía en sistemas de ganadería extensiva. Para ello, se desarrollan tres aplicaciones: (i) evaluar el impacto económico de la sequía en una explotación ganadera extensiva de la dehesa de Andalucía, (ii) elaborar mapas de vulnerabilidad a la sequía en pastos de Chile y (iii) diseñar y evaluar el potencial de un seguro indexado para sequía en pastos en la región de Coquimbo en Chile. En la primera aplicación, se diseña un modelo dinámico y estocástico que integra aspectos climáticos, ecológicos, agronómicos y socioeconómicos para evaluar el riesgo de sequía. El modelo simula una explotación ganadera tipo de la dehesa de Andalucía para el período 1999-2010. El método de Análisis Histórico y la simulación de MonteCarlo se utilizan para identificar los principales factores de riesgo de la explotación, entre los que destacan, los periodos de inicios del verano e inicios de invierno. Los resultados muestran la existencia de un desfase temporal entre el riesgo climático y riesgo económico, teniendo este último un periodo de duración más extenso en el tiempo. También, revelan que la intensidad, frecuencia y duración son tres atributos cruciales que determinan el impacto económico de la sequía. La estrategia de reducción de la carga ganadera permite aminorar el riesgo, pero conlleva una disminución en el margen bruto de la explotación. La segunda aplicación está dedicada a la elaboración de mapas de vulnerabilidad a la sequia en pastos de Chile. Para ello, se propone y desarrolla un índice de riesgo económico (IRESP) sencillo de interpretar y replicable, que integra factores de riesgo y estrategias de adaptación para obtener una medida del Valor en Riesgo, es decir, la máxima pérdida esperada en un año con un nivel de significación del 5%.La representación espacial del IRESP pone en evidencia patrones espaciales y diferencias significativas en la vulnerabilidad a la sequía a lo largo de Chile. Además, refleja que la vulnerabilidad no siempre esta correlacionada con el riesgo climático y demuestra la importancia de considerar las estrategias de adaptación. Las medidas de autocorrelación espacial revelan que el riesgo sistémico es considerablemente mayor en el sur que en el resto de zonas. Los resultados demuestran que el IRESP transmite información pertinente y, que los mapas de vulnerabilidad pueden ser una herramienta útil en el diseño de políticas y toma de decisiones para la gestión del riesgo de sequía. La tercera aplicación evalúa el potencial de un seguro indexado para sequía en pastos en la región de Coquimbo en Chile. Para lo cual, se desarrolla un modelo estocástico para estimar la prima actuarialmente justa del seguro y se proponen y evalúan pautas alternativas para mejorar el diseño del contrato. Se aborda el riesgo base, el principal problema de los seguros indexados identificado en la literatura y, que está referido a la correlación imperfecta del índice con las pérdidas de la explotación. Para ello, se sigue un enfoque bayesiano que permite evaluar el impacto en el riesgo base de las pautas de diseño propuestas: i) una zonificación por clúster que considera aspectos espacio-temporales, ii) un período de garantía acotado a los ciclos fenológicos del pasto y iii) umbral de garantía. Los resultados muestran que tanto la zonificación como el periodo de garantía reducen el riesgo base considerablemente. Sin embargo, el umbral de garantía tiene un efecto ambiguo sobre el riesgo base. Por otra parte, la zonificación por clúster contribuye a aminorar el riesgo sistémico que enfrentan las aseguradoras. Estos resultados han puesto de manifiesto que un buen diseño de contrato puede tener un doble dividendo, por un lado aumentar su utilidad y, por otro, reducir el coste del seguro. Un diseño de contrato eficiente junto con los avances en la teledetección y un adecuado marco institucional son los pilares básicos para el buen funcionamiento de un programa de seguro. Las nuevas tecnologías ofrecen un importante potencial para la innovación en la gestión del riesgo climático. Los avances en este campo pueden proporcionar importantes beneficios sociales en los países en desarrollo y regiones vulnerables, donde las herramientas para gestionar eficazmente los riesgos sistémicos como la sequía pueden ser de gran ayuda para el desarrollo. The vulnerability of grazing livestock systems highlights the need for tools to assess and mitigate the adverse impact of drought. The recent and rapid progress in remote sensing has awakened an interest for tapping into potential applications, triggering intensive efforts to develop innovations in a number of spheres. One of these areas is climate risk management, where the use of vegetation indices facilitates assessment of drought. This research analyzes drought impacts and evaluates the potential of new technologies such as remote sensing to manage drought risk in extensive livestock systems. Three essays in drought risk management are developed to: (i) assess the economic impact of drought on a livestock farm in the Andalusian Dehesa, (ii) build drought vulnerability maps in Chilean grazing lands, and (iii) design and evaluate the potential of an index insurance policy to address the risk of drought in grazing lands in Coquimbo, Chile. In the first essay, a dynamic and stochastic farm model is designed combining climate, agronomic, socio-economic and ecological aspects to assess drought risk. The model is developed to simulate a representative livestock farm in the Dehesa of Andalusia for the time period 1999-2010. Burn analysis and MonteCarlo simulation methods are used to identify the significance of various risk sources at the farm. Most notably, early summer and early winter are identified as periods of peak risk. Moreover, there is a significant time lag between climate and economic risk and this later last longer than the former. It is shown that intensity, frequency and duration of the drought are three crucial attributes that shape the economic impact of drought. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to assess the sustainability of farm management strategies and demonstrates that lowering the stocking rate reduces farmer exposure to drought risk but entails a reduction in the expected gross margin. The second essay, mapping drought vulnerability in Chilean grazing lands, proposes and builds an index of economic risk (IRESP) that is replicable and simple to interpret. This methodology integrates risk factors and adaptation strategies to deliver information on Value at Risk, maximum expected losses at 5% significance level. Mapping IRESP provides evidence about spatial patterns and significant differences in drought vulnerability across Chilean grazing lands. Spatial autocorrelation measures reveal that systemic risk is considerably larger in the South as compared to Northern or Central Regions. Furthermore, it is shown that vulnerability is not necessarily correlated with climate risk and that adaptation strategies do matter. These results show that IRESP conveys relevant information and that vulnerability maps may be useful tools to assess policy design and decision-making in drought risk management. The third essay develops a stochastic model to estimate the actuarially fair premium and evaluates the potential of an indexed insurance policy to manage drought risk in Coquimbo, a relevant livestock farming region of Chile. Basis risk refers to the imperfect correlation of the index and farmer loses and is identified in the literature as a main limitation of index insurance. A Bayesian approach is proposed to assess the impact on basis risk of alternative guidelines in contract design: i) A cluster zoning that considers space-time aspects, ii) A guarantee period bounded to fit phenological cycles, and iii) the triggering index threshold. Results show that both the proposed zoning and guarantee period considerably reduces basis risk. However, the triggering index threshold has an ambiguous effect on basis risk. On the other hand, cluster zoning contributes to ameliorate systemic risk faced by the insurer. These results highlighted that adequate contract design is important and may result in double dividend. On the one hand, increasing farmers’ utility and, secondly, reducing the cost of insurance. An efficient contract design coupled with advances in remote sensing and an appropriate institutional framework are the basis for an efficient operation of an insurance program. The new technologies offer significant potential for innovation in climate risk managements. Progress in this field is capturing increasing attention and may provide important social gains in developing countries and vulnerable regions where the tools to efficiently manage systemic risks, such as drought, may be a means to foster development.

Delineating environmental groundwater vulnerability and protection zones mapping in fractured rock masses

Hard‐rock watersheds commonly exhibit complex geological bedrock and morphological features. Hydromineral resources have relevant economic value for the thermal spas industry. The present study aims to develop a groundwater vulnerability approach in Caldas da Cavaca hydromineral system (Aguiar da Beira, Central Portugal) which has a thermal tradition that dates back to the late 19th century, and contribute to a better understanding of the hydrogeological conceptual site model. In this work different layers were overlaid, generating several thematic maps to arrive at an integrated framework of several key‐sectors in Caldas da Cavaca site. Thus, to accomplish a comprehensive analysis and conceptualization of the site, a multi‐technical approach was used, such as, field and laboratory techniques, where several data was collected, like geotectonics, hydrology and hydrogeology, hydrogeomorphology, hydrogeophysical and hydrogeomechanical zoning aiming the application of the so‐called DISCO method. All these techniques were successfully performed and a groundwater vulnerability to contamination assessment, based on GOD‐S, DRASTIC‐Fm, SINTACS, SI and DISCO indexes methodology, was delineated. Geographical Information Systems (GIS) technology was on the basis to organise and integrate the geodatabases and to produce all the thematic maps. This multi‐technical approach highlights the importance of groundwater vulnerability to contamination mapping as a tool to support hydrogeological conceptualisation, contributing to better decision‐making of water resources management and sustainability.

Maps as risk mitigation tools. Adaptation of the Swiss hazard assessment and mapping methodology to a Moroccan site: Beni Mellal

Dans le contexte climatique actuel, les régions méditerranéennes connaissent une intensification des phénomènes hydrométéorologiques extrêmes. Au Maroc, le risque lié aux inondations est devenu problématique, les communautés étant vulnérables aux événements extrêmes. En effet, le développement économique et urbain rapide et mal maîtrisé augmente l'exposition aux phénomènes extrêmes. La Direction du Développement et de la Coopération suisse (DDC) s'implique activement dans la réduction des risques naturels au Maroc. La cartographie des dangers et son intégration dans l'aménagement du territoire représentent une méthode efficace afin de réduire la vulnérabilité spatiale. Ainsi, la DDC a mandaté ce projet d'adaptation de la méthode suisse de cartographie des dangers à un cas d'étude marocain (la ville de Beni Mellal, région de Tadla-Azilal, Maroc). La méthode suisse a été adaptée aux contraintes spécifiques du terrain (environnement semi-aride, morphologie de piémont) et au contexte de transfert de connaissances (caractéristiques socio-économiques et pratiques). Une carte des phénomènes d'inondations a été produite. Elle contient les témoins morphologiques et les éléments anthropiques pertinents pour le développement et l'aggravation des inondations. La modélisation de la relation pluie-débit pour des événements de référence, et le routage des hydrogrammes de crue ainsi obtenus ont permis d'estimer quantitativement l'aléa inondation. Des données obtenues sur le terrain (estimations de débit, extension de crues connues) ont permis de vérifier les résultats des modèles. Des cartes d'intensité et de probabilité ont été obtenues. Enfin, une carte indicative du danger d'inondation a été produite sur la base de la matrice suisse du danger qui croise l'intensité et la probabilité d'occurrence d'un événement pour obtenir des degrés de danger assignables au territoire étudié. En vue de l'implémentation des cartes de danger dans les documents de l'aménagement du territoire, nous nous intéressons au fonctionnement actuel de la gestion institutionnelle du risque à Beni Mellal, en étudiant le degré d'intégration de la gestion et la manière dont les connaissances sur les risques influencent le processus de gestion. L'analyse montre que la gestion est marquée par une logique de gestion hiérarchique et la priorité des mesures de protection par rapport aux mesures passives d'aménagement du territoire. Les connaissances sur le risque restent sectorielles, souvent déconnectées. L'innovation dans le domaine de la gestion du risque résulte de collaborations horizontales entre les acteurs ou avec des sources de connaissances externes (par exemple les universités). Des recommandations méthodologiques et institutionnelles issues de cette étude ont été adressées aux gestionnaires en vue de l'implémentation des cartes de danger. Plus que des outils de réduction du risque, les cartes de danger aident à transmettre des connaissances vers le public et contribuent ainsi à établir une culture du risque. - Severe rainfall events are thought to be occurring more frequently in semi-arid areas. In Morocco, flood hazard has become an important topic, notably as rapid economic development and high urbanization rates have increased the exposure of people and assets in hazard-prone areas. The Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SADC) is active in natural hazard mitigation in Morocco. As hazard mapping for urban planning is thought to be a sound tool for vulnerability reduction, the SADC has financed a project aimed at adapting the Swiss approach for hazard assessment and mapping to the case of Morocco. In a knowledge transfer context, the Swiss method was adapted to the semi-arid environment, the specific piedmont morphology and to socio-economic constraints particular to the study site. Following the Swiss guidelines, a hydro-geomorphological map was established, containing all geomorphic elements related to known past floods. Next, rainfall / runoff modeling for reference events and hydraulic routing of the obtained hydrographs were carried out in order to assess hazard quantitatively. Field-collected discharge estimations and flood extent for known floods were used to verify the model results. Flood hazard intensity and probability maps were obtained. Finally, an indicative danger map as defined within the Swiss hazard assessment terminology was calculated using the Swiss hazard matrix that convolves flood intensity with its recurrence probability in order to assign flood danger degrees to the concerned territory. Danger maps become effective, as risk mitigation tools, when implemented in urban planning. We focus on how local authorities are involved in the risk management process and how knowledge about risk impacts the management. An institutional vulnerability "map" was established based on individual interviews held with the main institutional actors in flood management. Results show that flood hazard management is defined by uneven actions and relationships, it is based on top-down decision-making patterns, and focus is maintained on active mitigation measures. The institutional actors embody sectorial, often disconnected risk knowledge pools, whose relationships are dictated by the institutional hierarchy. Results show that innovation in the risk management process emerges when actors collaborate despite the established hierarchy or when they open to outer knowledge pools (e.g. the academia). Several methodological and institutional recommendations were addressed to risk management stakeholders in view of potential map implementation to planning. Hazard assessment and mapping is essential to an integrated risk management approach: more than a mitigation tool, danger maps represent tools that allow communicating on hazards and establishing a risk culture.

Assessing alpine plant vulnerability to climate change: A modeling perspective

The potential ecological impact of ongoing climate change has been much discussed. High mountain ecosystems were identified early on as potentially very sensitive areas. Scenarios of upward species movement and vegetation shift are commonly discussed in the literature. Mountains being characteristically conic in shape, impact scenarios usually assume that a smaller surface area will be available as species move up. However, as the frequency distribution of additional physiographic factors (e.g., slope angle) changes with increasing elevation (e.g., with few gentle slopes available at higher elevation), species migrating upslope may encounter increasingly unsuitable conditions. As a result, many species could suffer severe reduction of their habitat surface, which could in turn affect patterns of biodiversity. In this paper, results from static plant distribution modeling are used to derive climate change impact scenarios in a high mountain environment. Models are adjusted with presence/absence of species. Environmental predictors used are: annual mean air temperature, slope, indices of topographic position, geology, rock cover, modeled permafrost and several indices of solar radiation and snow cover duration. Potential Habitat Distribution maps were drawn for 62 higher plant species, from which three separate climate change impact scenarios were derived. These scenarios show a great range of response, depending on the species and the degree of warming. Alpine species would be at greatest risk of local extinction, whereas species with a large elevation range would run the lowest risk. Limitations of the models and scenarios are further discussed.

Integrated assessment for establishing an oil environmental vulnerability map: Case study for the Santos Basin region, Brazil

The growth of maritime transport and oil exploitation activities may increase the risk of oil spills. Thus, plans and actions to prevent or mitigate impacts are needed to minimize the effects caused by oil. However, tools used worldwide to support contingency plans have not been integrated, thus leading to failure in establishing priority areas. This investigation aimed to develop indices of environmental vulnerability to oil (IEVO), by combining information about environmental sensibility to oil and results of numerical modeling of spilled oil. To achieve that, a case study concerning to oil spills scenarios in a subtropical coastal area was designed, and IEVOs were calculated and presented in maps, in order to make the information about the areas' vulnerability more easily visualized. For summer, the extension of coastline potentially affected by oil was approximately 150. km, and most of the coastline presented medium to high vulnerability. For winter, 230. km coastline would be affected, from which 75% were classified as medium to high vulnerability. Thus, IEVO maps allowed a rapid and clearer interpretation of the vulnerability of the mapped region, facilitating the planning process and the actions in response to an oil spill. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Spatial analysis of the social vulnerability of adolescent pregnancy

The purpose of this study was to present a spatial analysis of the social vulnerability of teenage pregnancy by geoprocessing data on births and deaths present on the Brazilian Ministry of Health databases in order to support intersectoral management actions and strategies based on spatial analysis in neighborhood areas. The thematic maps of the educational, occupational, birth and marital status of mothers, from all births and deaths in the city, presented a spatial correlation with teenage pregnancy. These maps were superimposed to produce social vulnerability map of adolescent pregnancy and women in general. This process presents itself as a powerful tool for the study of social vulnerability.

[lay Agency And Healthcare: Producing Healthcare Maps].

This study aimed to characterize which regulatory logics (other than government regulation) result in healthcare output, using a two-stage qualitative study in two municipalities in the ABCD Paulista region in São Paulo State, Brazil. The first stage included interviews with strategic actors (managers and policymakers) and key health professionals. The second phase collected life histories from 18 individuals with high health-services utilization rates. An analysis of the researchers' involvement in the field allowed a better understanding of the narratives. Four regulatory systems were characterized (governmental, professional, clientelistic, and lay), indicating that regulation is a field in constant dispute, a social production. Users' action produces healthcare maps that reveal the existence of other possible health system arrangements, calling on us to test shared management of healthcare between health teams and users as a promising path to the urgent need to reinvent health.