Development and Validation of Decision Rules to Guide Frequency of Monitoring CD4 Cell Count in HIV-1 Infection before Starting Antiretroviral Therapy.

Background: Although CD4 cell count monitoring is used to decide when to start antiretroviral therapy in patients with HIV-1 infection, there are no evidence-based recommendations regarding its optimal frequency. It is common practice to monitor every 3 to 6 months, often coupled with viral load monitoring. We developed rules to guide frequency of CD4 cell count monitoring in HIV infection before starting antiretroviral therapy, which we validated retrospectively in patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.Methodology/Principal Findings: We built up two prediction rules ("Snap-shot rule" for a single sample and "Track-shot rule" for multiple determinations) based on a systematic review of published longitudinal analyses of CD4 cell count trajectories. We applied the rules in 2608 untreated patients to classify their 18 061 CD4 counts as either justifiable or superfluous, according to their prior >= 5% or < 5% chance of meeting predetermined thresholds for starting treatment. The percentage of measurements that both rules falsely deemed superfluous never exceeded 5%. Superfluous CD4 determinations represented 4%, 11%, and 39% of all actual determinations for treatment thresholds of 500, 350, and 200x10(6)/L, respectively. The Track-shot rule was only marginally superior to the Snap-shot rule. Both rules lose usefulness for CD4 counts coming near to treatment threshold.Conclusions/Significance: Frequent CD4 count monitoring of patients with CD4 counts well above the threshold for initiating therapy is unlikely to identify patients who require therapy. It appears sufficient to measure CD4 cell count 1 year after a count > 650 for a threshold of 200, > 900 for 350, or > 1150 for 500x10(6)/L, respectively. When CD4 counts fall below these limits, increased monitoring frequency becomes advisable. These rules offer guidance for efficient CD4 monitoring, particularly in resource-limited settings.

MEPDG Work Plan Task No. 8: Validation of Pavement Performance Curves for the Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide, 2009

The objective of this research is to determine whether the nationally calibrated performance models used in the Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) provide a reasonable prediction of actual field performance, and if the desired accuracy or correspondence exists between predicted and monitored performance for Iowa conditions. A comprehensive literature review was conducted to identify the MEPDG input parameters and the MEPDG verification/calibration process. Sensitivities of MEPDG input parameters to predictions were studied using different versions of the MEPDG software. Based on literature review and sensitivity analysis, a detailed verification procedure was developed. A total of sixteen different types of pavement sections across Iowa, not used for national calibration in NCHRP 1-47A, were selected. A database of MEPDG inputs and the actual pavement performance measures for the selected pavement sites were prepared for verification. The accuracy of the MEPDG performance models for Iowa conditions was statistically evaluated. The verification testing showed promising results in terms of MEPDG’s performance prediction accuracy for Iowa conditions. Recalibrating the MEPDG performance models for Iowa conditions is recommended to improve the accuracy of predictions. ****************** Large File**************************

Contribution à l’élaboration d’un guide alimentaire béninois : approche par la programmation linéaire et validation sur le terrain

Contexte: Le Bénin est atteint par le double fardeau nutritionnel : dans le même pays, et parfois dans le même ménage, il y a des personnes malnutries et d’autres aux prises avec des maladies chroniques. Ces conditions, au moins pour partie, peuvent être prévenues si la population est sensibilisée à de bonnes habitudes alimentaires. Pour ce faire, les professionnels de la santé ont besoin d’outils comme un guide alimentaire (GA) pour faciliter l’apprentissage de bonnes pratiques alimentaires. Ce dernier nécessite plusieurs étapes à son élaboration, dont la définition des groupes alimentaires, la présentation visuelle et la quantification des portions d'aliments. Objectif : Ce travail a eu pour but de proposer et d’homologuer des portions quotidiennes d’aliments dans chaque groupe alimentaire pour différents groupes d’âge de Béninois. Méthode : Elle consiste à : 1) Caractériser la consommation alimentaire locale; 2) Optimiser le profil moyen de consommation alimentaire quotidienne à l’aide de la programmation linéaire (PL); 3) Traduire les résultats en termes de nombre et taille de portions d’aliments de chaque groupe à consommer quotidiennement; 4) Illustrer les recommandations au moyen d’exemples de menus journaliers; 5) Homologuer le prototype du GA avec des experts béninois. La PL a permis de déterminer les choix d’aliments et quantités optimales à recommander à partir des enquêtes transversales récentes et des recommandations nutritionnelles de l’OMS. Résultats : Les quantités et portions d'aliments recommandées à la consommation ont été déterminées. Les résultats ont été partagés avec les personnes-ressources en nutrition au Bénin. Le premier prototype du GA a été développé pour restitution subséquente aux autorités du Bénin.

A practical guide for operational validation of discrete simulation models

As the number of simulation experiments increases, the necessity for validation and verification of these models demands special attention on the part of the simulation practitioners. By analyzing the current scientific literature, it is observed that the operational validation description presented in many papers does not agree on the importance designated to this process and about its applied techniques, subjective or objective. With the expectation of orienting professionals, researchers and students in simulation, this article aims to elaborate a practical guide through the compilation of statistical techniques in the operational validation of discrete simulation models. Finally, the guide's applicability was evaluated by using two study objects, which represent two manufacturing cells, one from the automobile industry and the other from a Brazilian tech company. For each application, the guide identified distinct steps, due to the different aspects that characterize the analyzed distributions. © 2011 Brazilian Operations Research Society.

Development and validation of decision rules to guide frequency of monitoring CD4 cell count in HIV-1 infection before starting antiretroviral therapy

Background Although CD4 cell count monitoring is used to decide when to start antiretroviral therapy in patients with HIV-1 infection, there are no evidence-based recommendations regarding its optimal frequency. It is common practice to monitor every 3 to 6 months, often coupled with viral load monitoring. We developed rules to guide frequency of CD4 cell count monitoring in HIV infection before starting antiretroviral therapy, which we validated retrospectively in patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. Methodology/Principal Findings We built up two prediction rules (“Snap-shot rule” for a single sample and “Track-shot rule” for multiple determinations) based on a systematic review of published longitudinal analyses of CD4 cell count trajectories. We applied the rules in 2608 untreated patients to classify their 18 061 CD4 counts as either justifiable or superfluous, according to their prior ≥5% or <5% chance of meeting predetermined thresholds for starting treatment. The percentage of measurements that both rules falsely deemed superfluous never exceeded 5%. Superfluous CD4 determinations represented 4%, 11%, and 39% of all actual determinations for treatment thresholds of 500, 350, and 200×106/L, respectively. The Track-shot rule was only marginally superior to the Snap-shot rule. Both rules lose usefulness for CD4 counts coming near to treatment threshold. Conclusions/Significance Frequent CD4 count monitoring of patients with CD4 counts well above the threshold for initiating therapy is unlikely to identify patients who require therapy. It appears sufficient to measure CD4 cell count 1 year after a count >650 for a threshold of 200, >900 for 350, or >1150 for 500×106/L, respectively. When CD4 counts fall below these limits, increased monitoring frequency becomes advisable. These rules offer guidance for efficient CD4 monitoring, particularly in resource-limited settings.

Risk charts to guide targeted HIV-1 viral load monitoring of ART: development and validation in patients from resource-limited settings.

BACKGROUND HIV-1 RNA viral load (VL) testing is recommended to monitor antiretroviral therapy (ART) but not available in many resource-limited settings. We developed and validated CD4-based risk charts to guide targeted VL testing. METHODS We modeled the probability of virologic failure up to 5 years of ART based on current and baseline CD4 counts, developed decision rules for targeted VL testing of 10%, 20% or 40% of patients in seven cohorts of patients starting ART in South Africa, and plotted cut-offs for VL testing on colour-coded risk charts. We assessed the accuracy of risk chart-guided VL testing to detect virologic failure in validation cohorts from South Africa, Zambia and the Asia-Pacific. FINDINGS 31,450 adult patients were included in the derivation and 25,294 patients in the validation cohorts. Positive predictive values increased with the percentage of patients tested: from 79% (10% tested) to 98% (40% tested) in the South African, from 64% to 93% in the Zambian and from 73% to 96% in the Asia-Pacific cohorts. Corresponding increases in sensitivity were from 35% to 68% in South Africa, from 55% to 82% in Zambia and from 37% to 71% in Asia-Pacific. The area under the receiver-operating curve increased from 0.75 to 0.91 in South Africa, from 0.76 to 0.91 in Zambia and from 0.77 to 0.92 in Asia Pacific. INTERPRETATION CD4-based risk charts with optimal cut-offs for targeted VL testing may be useful to monitor ART in settings where VL capacity is limited.

Implementation and Operational Research: Risk Charts to Guide Targeted HIV-1 Viral Load Monitoring of ART: Development and Validation in Patients From Resource-Limited Settings.

BACKGROUND HIV-1 RNA viral load (VL) testing is recommended to monitor antiretroviral therapy (ART) but not available in many resource-limited settings. We developed and validated CD4-based risk charts to guide targeted VL testing. METHODS We modeled the probability of virologic failure up to 5 years of ART based on current and baseline CD4 counts, developed decision rules for targeted VL testing of 10%, 20%, or 40% of patients in 7 cohorts of patients starting ART in South Africa, and plotted cutoffs for VL testing on colour-coded risk charts. We assessed the accuracy of risk chart-guided VL testing to detect virologic failure in validation cohorts from South Africa, Zambia, and the Asia-Pacific. RESULTS In total, 31,450 adult patients were included in the derivation and 25,294 patients in the validation cohorts. Positive predictive values increased with the percentage of patients tested: from 79% (10% tested) to 98% (40% tested) in the South African cohort, from 64% to 93% in the Zambian cohort, and from 73% to 96% in the Asia-Pacific cohort. Corresponding increases in sensitivity were from 35% to 68% in South Africa, from 55% to 82% in Zambia, and from 37% to 71% in Asia-Pacific. The area under the receiver operating curve increased from 0.75 to 0.91 in South Africa, from 0.76 to 0.91 in Zambia, and from 0.77 to 0.92 in Asia-Pacific. CONCLUSIONS CD4-based risk charts with optimal cutoffs for targeted VL testing maybe useful to monitor ART in settings where VL capacity is limited.

Technical assistance guide for JTPA follow-up and validation /

"June 1990"--Cover.

Development and validation of a psychometric scale for assessing PA chest image quality: a pilot study

Purpose - To develop and validate a psychometric scale for assessing image quality perception for chest X-ray images. Methods - Bandura's theory was used to guide scale development. A review of the literature was undertaken to identify items/factors which could be used to evaluate image quality using a perceptual approach. A draft scale was then created (22 items) and presented to a focus group (student and qualified radiographers). Within the focus group the draft scale was discussed and modified. A series of seven postero-anterior chest images were generated using a phantom with a range of image qualities. Image quality perception was confirmed for the seven images using signal-to-noise ratio (SNR 17.2–36.5). Participants (student and qualified radiographers and radiology trainees) were then invited to independently score each of the seven images using the draft image quality perception scale. Cronbach alpha was used to test interval reliability. Results - Fifty three participants used the scale to grade image quality perception on each of the seven images. Aggregated mean scale score increased with increasing SNR from 42.1 to 87.7 (r = 0.98, P < 0.001). For each of the 22 individual scale items there was clear differentiation of low, mid and high quality images. A Cronbach alpha coefficient of >0.7 was obtained across each of the seven images. Conclusion - This study represents the first development of a chest image quality perception scale based on Bandura's theory. There was excellent correlation between the image quality perception scores derived using the scale and the SNR. Further research will involve a more detailed item and factor analysis.

Development and validation of a clinical decision rule for the diagnosis of influenza.

INTRODUCTION: A clinical decision rule to improve the accuracy of a diagnosis of influenza could help clinicians avoid unnecessary use of diagnostic tests and treatments. Our objective was to develop and validate a simple clinical decision rule for diagnosis of influenza. METHODS: We combined data from 2 studies of influenza diagnosis in adult outpatients with suspected influenza: one set in California and one in Switzerland. Patients in both studies underwent a structured history and physical examination and had a reference standard test for influenza (polymerase chain reaction or culture). We randomly divided the dataset into derivation and validation groups and then evaluated simple heuristics and decision rules from previous studies and 3 rules based on our own multivariate analysis. Cutpoints for stratification of risk groups in each model were determined using the derivation group before evaluating them in the validation group. For each decision rule, the positive predictive value and likelihood ratio for influenza in low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups, and the percentage of patients allocated to each risk group, were reported. RESULTS: The simple heuristics (fever and cough; fever, cough, and acute onset) were helpful when positive but not when negative. The most useful and accurate clinical rule assigned 2 points for fever plus cough, 2 points for myalgias, and 1 point each for duration <48 hours and chills or sweats. The risk of influenza was 8% for 0 to 2 points, 30% for 3 points, and 59% for 4 to 6 points; the rule performed similarly in derivation and validation groups. Approximately two-thirds of patients fell into the low- or high-risk group and would not require further diagnostic testing. CONCLUSION: A simple, valid clinical rule can be used to guide point-of-care testing and empiric therapy for patients with suspected influenza.

Design Guide for Precast UHPC Waffle Deck Panel System, including Connections, June 2013

Abstract: As a part of an innovation project funded by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) Highways for LIFE program, a full-depth precast, ultra-high-performance concrete (UHPC) waffle deck panel and appropriate connections suitable for field implementation of waffle decks were developed. Following a successful full-scale validation test on a unit consisting of two panels with various types of connections under laboratory conditions, the waffle deck was installed successfully on a replacement bridge in Wapello County, Iowa. The subsequent load testing confirmed the desirable performance of the UHPC waffle deck bridge. Using the lessons from the completed project and outcomes from a series of simple and detailed finite element analyses of waffle decks, this report was developed to serve as a guide for broadening the design and installation of the UHPC waffle deck panel in new and existing bridges. Following an introduction to UHPC and waffle deck panels and a summary of completed work, this document presents information on waffle deck design, design of connections, redecking using waffle deck panels, and guidance on precast fabrication, construction, and installation of UHPC waffle deck panels.

Ruling out coronary heart disease in primary care: external validation of a clinical prediction rule.

BACKGROUND: The Marburg Heart Score (MHS) aims to assist GPs in safely ruling out coronary heart disease (CHD) in patients presenting with chest pain, and to guide management decisions. AIM: To investigate the diagnostic accuracy of the MHS in an independent sample and to evaluate the generalisability to new patients. DESIGN AND SETTING: Cross-sectional diagnostic study with delayed-type reference standard in general practice in Hesse, Germany. METHOD: Fifty-six German GPs recruited 844 males and females aged ≥ 35 years, presenting between July 2009 and February 2010 with chest pain. Baseline data included the items of the MHS. Data on the subsequent course of chest pain, investigations, hospitalisations, and medication were collected over 6 months and were reviewed by an independent expert panel. CHD was the reference condition. Measures of diagnostic accuracy included the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios, and predictive values. RESULTS: The AUC was 0.84 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.80 to 0.88). For a cut-off value of 3, the MHS showed a sensitivity of 89.1% (95% CI = 81.1% to 94.0%), a specificity of 63.5% (95% CI = 60.0% to 66.9%), a positive predictive value of 23.3% (95% CI = 19.2% to 28.0%), and a negative predictive value of 97.9% (95% CI = 96.2% to 98.9%). CONCLUSION: Considering the diagnostic accuracy of the MHS, its generalisability, and ease of application, its use in clinical practice is recommended.

Derivation and validation of a prognostic model for pulmonary embolism.

RATIONALE: An objective and simple prognostic model for patients with pulmonary embolism could be helpful in guiding initial intensity of treatment. OBJECTIVES: To develop a clinical prediction rule that accurately classifies patients with pulmonary embolism into categories of increasing risk of mortality and other adverse medical outcomes. METHODS: We randomly allocated 15,531 inpatient discharges with pulmonary embolism from 186 Pennsylvania hospitals to derivation (67%) and internal validation (33%) samples. We derived our prediction rule using logistic regression with 30-day mortality as the primary outcome, and patient demographic and clinical data routinely available at presentation as potential predictor variables. We externally validated the rule in 221 inpatients with pulmonary embolism from Switzerland and France. MEASUREMENTS: We compared mortality and nonfatal adverse medical outcomes across the derivation and two validation samples. MAIN RESULTS: The prediction rule is based on 11 simple patient characteristics that were independently associated with mortality and stratifies patients with pulmonary embolism into five severity classes, with 30-day mortality rates of 0-1.6% in class I, 1.7-3.5% in class II, 3.2-7.1% in class III, 4.0-11.4% in class IV, and 10.0-24.5% in class V across the derivation and validation samples. Inpatient death and nonfatal complications were <or= 1.1% among patients in class I and <or= 1.9% among patients in class II. CONCLUSIONS: Our rule accurately classifies patients with pulmonary embolism into classes of increasing risk of mortality and other adverse medical outcomes. Further validation of the rule is important before its implementation as a decision aid to guide the initial management of patients with pulmonary embolism.

Development and validation of a visual grading scale for assessing image quality of AP pelvis radiographic images.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this article was to apply psychometric theory to develop and validate a visual grading scale for assessing the visual perception of digital image quality anteroposterior (AP) pelvis. METHODS: Psychometric theory was used to guide scale development. Seven phantom and seven cadaver images of visually and objectively predetermined quality were used to help assess scale reliability and validity. 151 volunteers scored phantom images, and 184 volunteers scored cadaver images. Factor analysis and Cronbach's alpha were used to assess scale validity and reliability. RESULTS: A 24-item scale was produced. Aggregated mean volunteer scores for each image correlated with the rank order of the visually and objectively predetermined image qualities. Scale items had good interitem correlation (≥0.2) and high factor loadings (≥0.3). Cronbach's alpha (reliability) revealed that the scale has acceptable levels of internal reliability for both phantom and cadaver images (α = 0.8 and 0.9, respectively). Factor analysis suggested that the scale is multidimensional (assessing multiple quality themes). CONCLUSION: This study represents the first full development and validation of a visual image quality scale using psychometric theory. It is likely that this scale will have clinical, training and research applications. ADVANCES IN KNOWLEDGE: This article presents data to create and validate visual grading scales for radiographic examinations. The visual grading scale, for AP pelvis examinations, can act as a validated tool for future research, teaching and clinical evaluations of image quality.