Co-movements between US and UK stock prices: the roles of macroeconomic information and time-series varying conditional correlations

This paper provides evidence on the sources of co-movement in monthly US and UK stock price movements by investigating the role of macroeconomic and financial variables in a bivariate system with time-varying conditional correlations. Crosscountry communality in response is uncovered, with changes in the US Federal Funds rate, UK bond yields and oil prices having similar negative effects in both markets. Other variables also play a role, especially for the UK market. These effects do not, however, explain the marked increase in cross-market correlations observed from around 2000, which we attribute to time variation in the correlations of shocks to these markets. A regime-switching smooth transition model captures this time variation well and shows the correlations increase dramatically around 1999-2000. JEL classifications: C32, C51, G15 Keywords: international stock returns, DCC-GARCH model, smooth transition conditional correlation GARCH model, model evaluation.

Time Variation in the Dynamics of Worker Flows: Evidence from the US and Canada

VAR methods have been used to model the inter-relationships between inflows and outfl ows into unemployment and vacancies using tools such as impulse response analysis. In order to investigate whether such impulse responses change over the course of the business cycle or or over time, this paper uses TVP-VARs for US and Canadian data. For the US, we find interesting differences between the most recent recession and earlier recessions and expansions. In particular, we find the immediate effect of a negative shock on both in ow and out flow hazards to be larger in 2008 than in earlier times. Furthermore, the effect of this shock takes longer to decay. For Canada, we fi nd less evidence of time-variation in impulse responses.

Osteoporotic fracture risk in elderly women: estimation with quantitative heel US and clinical risk factors

PURPOSE: To derive a prediction rule by using prospectively obtained clinical and bone ultrasonographic (US) data to identify elderly women at risk for osteoporotic fractures. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study was approved by the Swiss Ethics Committee. A prediction rule was computed by using data from a 3-year prospective multicenter study to assess the predictive value of heel-bone quantitative US in 6174 Swiss women aged 70-85 years. A quantitative US device to calculate the stiffness index at the heel was used. Baseline characteristics, known risk factors for osteoporosis and fall, and the quantitative US stiffness index were used to elaborate a predictive rule for osteoporotic fracture. Predictive values were determined by using a univariate Cox model and were adjusted with multivariate analysis. RESULTS: There were five risk factors for the incidence of osteoporotic fracture: older age (>75 years) (P < .001), low heel quantitative US stiffness index (<78%) (P < .001), history of fracture (P = .001), recent fall (P = .001), and a failed chair test (P = .029). The score points assigned to these risk factors were as follows: age, 2 (3 if age > 80 years); low quantitative US stiffness index, 5 (7.5 if stiffness index < 60%); history of fracture, 1; recent fall, 1.5; and failed chair test, 1. The cutoff value to obtain a high sensitivity (90%) was 4.5. With this cutoff, 1464 women were at lower risk (score, <4.5) and 4710 were at higher risk (score, >or=4.5) for fracture. Among the higher-risk women, 6.1% had an osteoporotic fracture, versus 1.8% of women at lower risk. Among the women who had a hip fracture, 90% were in the higher-risk group. CONCLUSION: A prediction rule obtained by using quantitative US stiffness index and four clinical risk factors helped discriminate, with high sensitivity, women at higher versus those at lower risk for osteoporotic fracture.

Comparison of foetal US and MRI in the characterisation of congenital lung anomalies.

OBJECTIVES: To compare the accuracy of prenatal ultrasonography (US) to magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in the characterisation of congenital lung anomalies, and to assess their agreement with final diagnosis. To evaluate the influence of additional MRI information on therapeutic management. METHODS: 26 prenatal congenital lung anomalies detected consecutively between 2006 and 2012 were retrospectively evaluated. Lesions were initially observed at prenatal US and further investigated with MRI. Prenatal US and MRI imaging findings, and suggested diagnosis were compared with the final diagnosis, obtained from autopsies (4), pathological evaluation following surgical resection (15) and postnatal imaging studies (7). RESULTS: Postnatal diagnoses included 7 congenital pulmonary airway malformations, 8 complex lesions, 7 overinflations, 1 sequestration, 1 bronchogenic cyst, 1 blastoma and 1 bilateral lymphangioma. Suggested prenatal US and MRI diagnosis was correct in 34.6% and 46.2% of patients, respectively, mainly isolated lung lesions with typical imaging findings. Nonspecific imaging findings at US and MRI studies were observed in 38.4% of cases. In 42% of the operated anomalies, pathological dissection revealed the presence of complex anomalies. MRI changed the US diagnosis, but not the further management in 9.7% of the lesions. CONCLUSIONS: Prenatal US and MRI showed a high accuracy in the diagnosis of isolated congenital lung lesions with typical imaging findings. However, overall characterisation rates were low, because of both a high percentage of complex lesions and of lesions with nonspecific imaging findings. MRI was better than US in characterising complex lesions, but its additional information did not influence therapy decisions.

Evaluation of peripheral arterial bypass grafts with multi-detector row CT angiography: comparison with duplex US and digital subtraction angiography.

PURPOSE: To assess the technical feasibility of multi-detector row computed tomographic (CT) angiography in the assessment of peripheral arterial bypass grafts and to evaluate its accuracy and reliability in the detection of graft-related complications, including graft stenosis, aneurysmal changes, and arteriovenous fistulas. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Four-channel multi-detector row CT angiography was performed in 65 consecutive patients with 85 peripheral arterial bypass grafts. Each bypass graft was divided into three segments (proximal anastomosis, course of the graft body, and distal anastomosis), resulting in 255 segments. Two readers evaluated all CT angiograms with regard to image quality and the presence of bypass graft-related abnormalities, including graft stenosis, aneurysmal changes, and arteriovenous fistulas. The results were compared with McNemar test with Bonferroni correction. CT attenuation values were recorded at five different locations from the inflow artery to the outflow artery of the bypass graft. These findings were compared with the findings at duplex ultrasonography (US) in 65 patients and the findings at conventional digital subtraction angiography (DSA) in 27. RESULTS: Image quality was rated as good or excellent in 250 (98%) and in 252 (99%) of 255 bypass segments, respectively. There was excellent agreement both between readers and between CT angiography and duplex US in the detection of graft stenosis, aneurysmal changes, and arteriovenous fistulas (kappa = 0.86-0.99). CT angiography and duplex US were compared with conventional DSA, and there was no statistically significant difference (P >.25) in sensitivity or specificity between CT angiography and duplex US for both readers for detection of hemodynamically significant bypass stenosis or occlusion, aneurysmal changes, or arteriovenous fistulas. Mean CT attenuation values ranged from 232 HU in the inflow artery to 281 HU in the outflow artery of the bypass graft. CONCLUSION: Multi-detector row CT angiography may be an accurate and reliable technique after duplex US in the assessment of peripheral arterial bypass grafts and detection of graft-related complications, including stenosis, aneurysmal changes, and arteriovenous fistulas.

Estimation of age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions using US and Catalan survival data

Background: During the last part of the 1990s the chance of surviving breast cancer increased. Changes in survival functions reflect a mixture of effects. Both, the introduction of adjuvant treatments and early screening with mammography played a role in the decline in mortality. Evaluating the contribution of these interventions using mathematical models requires survival functions before and after their introduction. Furthermore, required survival functions may be different by age groups and are related to disease stage at diagnosis. Sometimes detailed information is not available, as was the case for the region of Catalonia (Spain). Then one may derive the functions using information from other geographical areas. This work presents the methodology used to estimate age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions from scarce Catalan survival data by adapting the age- and stage-specific US functions. Methods: Cubic splines were used to smooth data and obtain continuous hazard rate functions. After, we fitted a Poisson model to derive hazard ratios. The model included time as a covariate. Then the hazard ratios were applied to US survival functions detailed by age and stage to obtain Catalan estimations. Results: We started estimating the hazard ratios for Catalonia versus the USA before and after the introduction of screening. The hazard ratios were then multiplied by the age- and stage-specific breast cancer hazard rates from the USA to obtain the Catalan hazard rates. We also compared breast cancer survival in Catalonia and the USA in two time periods, before cancer control interventions (USA 1975–79, Catalonia 1980–89) and after (USA and Catalonia 1990–2001). Survival in Catalonia in the 1980–89 period was worse than in the USA during 1975–79, but the differences disappeared in 1990–2001. Conclusion: Our results suggest that access to better treatments and quality of care contributed to large improvements in survival in Catalonia. On the other hand, we obtained detailed breast cancer survival functions that will be used for modeling the effect of screening and adjuvant treatments in Catalonia.

Estimation of age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions using US and Catalan survival data

During the last part of the 1990s the chance of surviving breast cancer increased. Changes in survival functions reflect a mixture of effects. Both, the introduction of adjuvant treatments and early screening with mammography played a role in the decline in mortality. Evaluating the contribution of these interventions using mathematical models requires survival functions before and after their introduction. Furthermore, required survival functions may be different by age groups and are related to disease stage at diagnosis. Sometimes detailed information is not available, as was the case for the region of Catalonia (Spain). Then one may derive the functions using information from other geographical areas. This work presents the methodology used to estimate age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions from scarce Catalan survival data by adapting the age- and stage-specific US functions. Methods: Cubic splines were used to smooth data and obtain continuous hazard rate functions. After, we fitted a Poisson model to derive hazard ratios. The model included time as a covariate. Then the hazard ratios were applied to US survival functions detailed by age and stage to obtain Catalan estimations. Results: We started estimating the hazard ratios for Catalonia versus the USA before and after the introduction of screening. The hazard ratios were then multiplied by the age- and stage-specific breast cancer hazard rates from the USA to obtain the Catalan hazard rates. We also compared breast cancer survival in Catalonia and the USA in two time periods, before cancer control interventions (USA 1975–79, Catalonia 1980–89) and after (USA and Catalonia 1990–2001). Survival in Catalonia in the 1980–89 period was worse than in the USA during 1975–79, but the differences disappeared in 1990–2001. Conclusion: Our results suggest that access to better treatments and quality of care contributed to large improvements in survival in Catalonia. On the other hand, we obtained detailed breast cancer survival functions that will be used for modeling the effect of screening and adjuvant treatments in Catalonia

Marginal/minority popular music : the concept of the "third space" and the case for "hybridities" of cultures/identities /

The topic of this thesis is marginaVminority popular music and the question of identity; the term "marginaVminority" specifically refers to members of racial and cultural minorities who are socially and politically marginalized. The thesis argument is that popular music produced by members of cultural and racial minorities establishes cultural identity and resists racist discourse. Three marginaVminority popular music artists and their songs have been chosen for analysis in support of the argument: Gil Scott-Heron's "Gun," Tracy Chapman's "Fast Car" and Robbie Robertson's "Sacrifice." The thesis will draw from two fields of study; popular music and postcolonialism. Within the area of popular music, Theodor Adorno's "Standardization" theory is the focus. Within the area of postcolonialism, this thesis concentrates on two specific topics; 1) Stuart Hall's and Homi Bhabha's overlapping perspectives that identity is a process of cultural signification, and 2) Homi Bhabha's concept of the "Third Space." For Bhabha (1995a), the Third Space defines cultures in the moment of their use, at the moment of their exchange. The idea of identities arising out of cultural struggle suggests that identity is a process as opposed to a fixed center, an enclosed totality. Cultures arise from historical memory and memory has no center. Historical memory is de-centered and thus cultures are also de-centered, they are not enclosed totalities. This is what Bhabha means by "hybridity" of culture - that cultures are not unitary totalities, they are ways of knowing and speaking about a reality that is in constant flux. In this regard, the language of "Otherness" depends on suppressing or marginalizing the productive capacity of culture in the act of enunciation. The Third Space represents a strategy of enunciation that disrupts, interrupts and dislocates the dominant discursive construction of US and THEM, (a construction explained by Hall's concept of binary oppositions, detailed in Chapter 2). Bhabha uses the term "enunciation" as a linguistic metaphor for how cultural differences are articulated through discourse and thus how differences are discursively produced. Like Hall, Bhabha views culture as a process of understanding and of signification because Bhabha sees traditional cultures' struggle against colonizing cultures as transforming them. Adorno's theory of Standardization will be understood as a theoretical position of Western authority. The thesis will argue that Adorno's theory rests on the assumption that there is an "essence" to music, an essence that Adorno rationalizes as structure/form. The thesis will demonstrate that constructing music as possessing an essence is connected to ideology and power and in this regard, Adorno's Standardization theory is a discourse of White Western power. It will be argued that "essentialism" is at the root of Western "rationalization" of music, and that the definition of what constitutes music is an extension of Western racist "discourses" of the Other. The methodological framework of the thesis entails a) applying semiotics to each of the three songs examined and b) also applying Bhabha's model of the Third Space to each of the songs. In this thesis, semiotics specifically refers to Stuart Hall's retheorized semiotics, which recognizes the dual function of semiotics in the analysis of marginal racial/cultural identities, i.e., simultaneously represent embedded racial/cultural stereotypes, and the marginal raciaVcultural first person voice that disavows and thus reinscribes stereotyped identities. (Here, and throughout this thesis, "first person voice" is used not to denote the voice of the songwriter, but rather the collective voice of a marginal racial/cultural group). This dual function fits with Hall's and Bhabha's idea that cultural identity emerges out of cultural antagonism, cultural struggle. Bhabha's Third Space is also applied to each of the songs to show that cultural "struggle" between colonizers and colonized produces cultural hybridities, musically expressed as fusions of styles/sounds. The purpose of combining semiotics and postcolonialism in the three songs to be analyzed is to show that marginal popular music, produced by members of cultural and racial minorities, establishes cultural identity and resists racist discourse by overwriting identities of racial/cultural stereotypes with identities shaped by the first person voice enunciated in the Third Space, to produce identities of cultural hybridities. Semiotic codes of embedded "Black" and "Indian" stereotypes in each song's musical and lyrical text will be read and shown to be overwritten by the semiotic codes of the first person voice, which are decoded with the aid of postcolonial concepts such as "ambivalence," "hybridity" and "enunciation."

Estimating and Forecasting the Term Structure of Interest Rates:US and Colombia Analysis

In this paper we use the most representative models that exist in the literature on term structure of interest rates. In particular, we explore affine one factor models and polynomial-type approximations such as Nelson and Siegel. Our empirical application considers monthly data of USA and Colombia for estimation and forecasting. We find that affine models do not provide adequate performance either in-sample or out-of-sample. On the contrary, parsimonious models such as Nelson and Siegel have adequate results in-sample, however out-of-sample they are not able to systematically improve upon random walk base forecast.

Estimation of age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions using US and Catalan survival data

During the last part of the 1990s the chance of surviving breast cancer increased. Changes in survival functions reflect a mixture of effects. Both, the introduction of adjuvant treatments and early screening with mammography played a role in the decline in mortality. Evaluating the contribution of these interventions using mathematical models requires survival functions before and after their introduction. Furthermore, required survival functions may be different by age groups and are related to disease stage at diagnosis. Sometimes detailed information is not available, as was the case for the region of Catalonia (Spain). Then one may derive the functions using information from other geographical areas. This work presents the methodology used to estimate age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions from scarce Catalan survival data by adapting the age- and stage-specific US functions. Methods: Cubic splines were used to smooth data and obtain continuous hazard rate functions. After, we fitted a Poisson model to derive hazard ratios. The model included time as a covariate. Then the hazard ratios were applied to US survival functions detailed by age and stage to obtain Catalan estimations. Results: We started estimating the hazard ratios for Catalonia versus the USA before and after the introduction of screening. The hazard ratios were then multiplied by the age- and stage-specific breast cancer hazard rates from the USA to obtain the Catalan hazard rates. We also compared breast cancer survival in Catalonia and the USA in two time periods, before cancer control interventions (USA 1975–79, Catalonia 1980–89) and after (USA and Catalonia 1990–2001). Survival in Catalonia in the 1980–89 period was worse than in the USA during 1975–79, but the differences disappeared in 1990–2001. Conclusion: Our results suggest that access to better treatments and quality of care contributed to large improvements in survival in Catalonia. On the other hand, we obtained detailed breast cancer survival functions that will be used for modeling the effect of screening and adjuvant treatments in Catalonia

The inflation hedging characteristics of US and UK investments: a multi-factor error correction approach

Historic analysis of the inflation hedging properties of stocks produced anomalous results, with equities often appearing to offer a perverse hedge against inflation. This has been attributed to the impact of real and monetary shocks to the economy, which influence both inflation and asset returns. It has been argued that real estate should provide a better hedge: however, empirical results have been mixed. This paper explores the relationship between commercial real estate returns (from both private and public markets) and economic, fiscal and monetary factors and inflation for US and UK markets. Comparative analysis of general equity and small capitalisation stock returns in both markets is carried out. Inflation is subdivided into expected and unexpected components using different estimation techniques. The analyses are undertaken using long-run error correction techniques. In the long-run, once real and monetary variables are included, asset returns are positively linked to anticipated inflation but not to inflation shocks. Adjustment processes are, however, gradual and not within period. Real estate returns, particularly direct market returns, exhibit characteristics that differ from equities.