Getting lost in the field : the unpredictable nature of fieldwork with young people

This chapter focuses on the unpredictable nature of fieldwork with young offenders, specifically with those in a marginalised context. We begin by recounting our experiences working with young people who have had contact with criminal justice processes, particularly those who are the subject of extreme levels of official social control. We then turn to a discussion of the challenges associated with the unpredictable nature of fieldwork, specifically the difficulties associated with negotiating access with gatekeepers and negotiating with young people. We also discuss specific challenges with the research ethics governance of ethically sensitive research in this context (e.g. interviewing young people about offending behaviour). Finally, we recount our experiences in working these young people, with a focus on ‘the grunt’: that is, drawing out young peoples’ stories in interviews. We conclude with some reflections on the need to develop systematic instruction in qualitative work in this specific context.

Detecting drift from event streams of unpredictable business processes

Existing business process drift detection methods do not work with event streams. As such, they are designed to detect inter-trace drifts only, i.e. drifts that occur between complete process executions (traces), as recorded in event logs. However, process drift may also occur during the execution of a process, and may impact ongoing executions. Existing methods either do not detect such intra-trace drifts, or detect them with a long delay. Moreover, they do not perform well with unpredictable processes, i.e. processes whose logs exhibit a high number of distinct executions to the total number of executions. We address these two issues by proposing a fully automated and scalable method for online detection of process drift from event streams. We perform statistical tests over distributions of behavioral relations between events, as observed in two adjacent windows of adaptive size, sliding along with the stream. An extensive evaluation on synthetic and real-life logs shows that our method is fast and accurate in the detection of typical change patterns, and performs significantly better than the state of the art.

Learning optimal adaptation strategies in unpredictable motor tasks.

Picking up an empty milk carton that we believe to be full is a familiar example of adaptive control, because the adaptation process of estimating the carton's weight must proceed simultaneously with the control process of moving the carton to a desired location. Here we show that the motor system initially generates highly variable behavior in such unpredictable tasks but eventually converges to stereotyped patterns of adaptive responses predicted by a simple optimality principle. These results suggest that adaptation can become specifically tuned to identify task-specific parameters in an optimal manner.

Unpredictable Cases of Complicated Ovarian Hyperstimulation in IVF

Objective-To characterize a subpopulation of complicated cases of ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome (OHSS). Method-Descriptive retrospective study. Results-0.75% of our IVF-ET population suffered from OHSS. Among this group, 33% did not exhibit any recognized risk criteria of OHSS in terms of infertility characteristics and ovarian response to exogenous gonadotrophins. Only severe (ascites) OHSS cases were considered (n = 5) in this study. Previous IVF-ET attempts had been uneventful and during the complicated trial, estradiol peak levels and numbers of oocytes retrieved remained below 2,500 pg/mL (conversion factor to SI unit, 3.671) and 10, respectively. In all cases, the luteal phase was supplemented by hCG and all patients became pregnant. A threshold level of exogenous and/or endogenous hCG seems to be responsible for the occurrence of OHSS. Conclusion-One-third of the patients developing an ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome after IVF-ET had not previously shown risk criteria. A causal role of exogenous and/or endogenous hCG is suggested.

Violent, caring, unpredictable: Public views on survivors of brain injury

The purpose of the present work was to investigate how members of the public perceived survivors of brain injury. A twenty-item list of attributes that could be used to describe characteristics of survivors of brain injury were given to three hundred and twenty-three participants. One hundred and sixty-nine psychology students and one hundred and fifty-four members of the public agreed to take part in the study. The effects of group (student and public), gender and socioeconomic status (low, moderate and high) on the attributes were assessed. Multivariate analysis of variance showed a statistically significant difference between the two groups with students holding more positive perceptions on 15 out of the 20 attributes. No effects of gender or socioeconomic status were found. The research suggests that members of the public hold less positive views on survivors of brain injury in respect to intellectual competency, ability to care and trustworthiness when compared to students.

Notating the Unpredictable

Notation can be seen to sit comfortably between theory and practice as it symbolizes practice, generates and implements theory, and produces practice. Historically, its presence changes in significance across the development of activities such as music or architecture. From design tool to canonic text, notational artefacts both solidify and formalize practice, as will be expanded below. How, then, does the role and function of notation change with specific contemporary practices, which are by definition ill-defined and feed off fluidity and change? What is the nature of notation in distributed and collaborative practices such as improvised music or network music performance?

Repeated predictable or unpredictable stress: effects on cocaine-induced locomotion and cyclic AMP-dependent protein kinase activity

Stressful experiences appear to have a strong influence on susceptibility to drug taking behavior. Cross-sensitization between stress and drug-induced locomotor response has been found. Locomotor response to novelty or cocaine (10 mg/kg, i.p.), cyclic AMP-dependent protein kinase (PKA) activity in the nucleus accumbens and basal corticosterone levels were evaluated in male adult rats exposed to acute and chronic predictable or unpredictable stress. Rats exposed to a 14-day predictable stress showed increased locomotor response to novelty and to cocaine, whereas rats exposed to chronic unpredictable stress demonstrated increased cyclic AMP-dependent PKA activity in the nucleus accumbens. Both predictable and unpredictable stress increased basal corticosterone plasma levels. These experiments demonstrated that stress-induced early cocaine sensitization depends on the stress regime and is apparently dissociated from stress-induced changes in cyclic AMP-dependent PKA activity and corticosterone levels. (C) 2002 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

Temporal stability for unpredictable annual climatic variability for Hevea genotype selection

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Crotacetin, a novel snake venom C-type lectin homolog of convulxin, exhibits an unpredictable antimicrobial activity

Snake venom (sv) C-type lectins encompass a group of hemorrhagic toxins that are capable of interfering with blood stasis. A very well-studied svC-type lectin is the heterodimeric toxin, convulxin (CVX), from the venom of South American rattlesnake Crotalus durissus terrificus. CVX is able to activate platelets and induce their aggregation by acting via p62/GPVI collagen receptor. By using polymerase chain reaction homology screening, we have cloned several cDNA precursors of CVX subunit homologs. One of them, named crotacetin (CTC) beta-subunit, predicts a polypeptide with a topology very similar to the tridimensional conformations of other subunits of CVX-like snake toxins, as determined by computational analysis. Using gel permeation and reverse-phase high-performance liquid chromatography, CTC was purified from C. durissus venoms. CTC can be isolated from the venom of several C. durissus subspecies, but its quantitative predominance is in the venom of C. durissus cascavella. Functional analysis indicates that CTC induces platelet aggregation, and, importantly, exhibits an antimicrobial activity against Gram-positive and -negative bacteria, comparable with CVX.

Unpredictable chronic mild stress exerts anxiogenic-like effects and activates neurons in the dorsal and caudal region and in the lateral wings of the dorsal raphe nucleus

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Chronic unpredictable mild stress alters an anxiety-related defensive response, Fos immunoreactivity and hippocampal adult neurogenesis

Previous results show that elevated T-maze (ETM) avoidance responses are facilitated by acute restraint. Escape, on the other hand, was unaltered. To examine if the magnitude of the stressor is an important factor influencing these results, we investigated the effects of unpredictable chronic mild stress (UCMS) on ETM avoidance and escape measurements. Analysis of Fos protein immunoreactivity (Fos-ir) was used to map areas activated by stress exposure in response to ETM avoidance and escape performance. Additionally, the effects of the UCMS protocol on the number of cells expressing the marker of migrating neuroblasts doublecortin (DCX) in the hippocampus were investigated. Corticosterone serum levels were also measured. Results showed that UCMS facilitates ETM avoidance, not altering escape. In unstressed animals, avoidance performance increases Fos-ir in the cingulate cortex, hippocampus (dentate gyrus) and basomedial amygdala, and escape increases Fos-ir in the dorsolateral periaqueductal gray and locus ceruleus. In stressed animals submitted to ETM avoidance, increases in Fos-ir were observed in the cingulate cortex, ventrolateral septum, hippocampus, hypothalamus, amygdala, dorsal and median raphe nuclei. In stressed animals submitted to ETM escape, increases in Fos-ir were observed in the cingulate cortex, periaqueductal gray and locus ceruleus. Also, UCMS exposure decreased the number of DCX-positive cells in the dorsal and ventral hippocampus and increased corticosterone serum levels. These data suggest that the anxiogenic effects of UCMS are related to the activation of specific neurobiological circuits that modulate anxiety and confirm that this stress protocol activates the hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal axis and decreases hippocampal adult neurogenesis.

Valuation of ecosystem goods and services. Part 2: Implications of unpredictable novel change

This is the second part of a two-part paper which offers a new approach to the valuation of ecosystem goods and services. In the first part a simple pre-industrial model was introduced to show how the interdependencies between the three subsystems, society, economy and nature, influence values, and how values change over time. In this second part the assumption of perfect foresight is dropped. I argue that due to novelty and complexity ex ante unpredictable change occurs within the three subsystems society, economy and nature. Again the simple pre-industrial model, which was introduced in part 1, serves as a simple paradigm to show how unpredictable novel change limits the possibility to derive accurate estimates of values.

Retrospective analysis of a nonforecasted rain-on-snow flood in the Alps – a matter of model limitations or unpredictable nature?

A rain-on-snow flood occurred in the Bernese Alps, Switzerland, on 10 October 2011, and caused significant damage. As the flood peak was unpredicted by the flood forecast system, questions were raised concerning the causes and the predictability of the event. Here, we aimed to reconstruct the anatomy of this rain-on-snow flood in the Lötschen Valley (160 km2) by analyzing meteorological data from the synoptic to the local scale and by reproducing the flood peak with the hydrological model WaSiM-ETH (Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model). This in order to gain process understanding and to evaluate the predictability. The atmospheric drivers of this rain-on-snow flood were (i) sustained snowfall followed by (ii) the passage of an atmospheric river bringing warm and moist air towards the Alps. As a result, intensive rainfall (average of 100 mm day-1) was accompanied by a temperature increase that shifted the 0° line from 1500 to 3200 m a.s.l. (meters above sea level) in 24 h with a maximum increase of 9 K in 9 h. The south-facing slope of the valley received significantly more precipitation than the north-facing slope, leading to flooding only in tributaries along the south-facing slope. We hypothesized that the reason for this very local rainfall distribution was a cavity circulation combined with a seeder-feeder-cloud system enhancing local rainfall and snowmelt along the south-facing slope. By applying and considerably recalibrating the standard hydrological model setup, we proved that both latent and sensible heat fluxes were needed to reconstruct the snow cover dynamic, and that locally high-precipitation sums (160 mm in 12 h) were required to produce the estimated flood peak. However, to reproduce the rapid runoff responses during the event, we conceptually represent likely lateral flow dynamics within the snow cover causing the model to react "oversensitively" to meltwater. Driving the optimized model with COSMO (Consortium for Small-scale Modeling)-2 forecast data, we still failed to simulate the flood because COSMO-2 forecast data underestimated both the local precipitation peak and the temperature increase. Thus we conclude that this rain-on-snow flood was, in general, predictable, but requires a special hydrological model setup and extensive and locally precise meteorological input data. Although, this data quality may not be achieved with forecast data, an additional model with a specific rain-on-snow configuration can provide useful information when rain-on-snow events are likely to occur.

The threat of predictable and unpredictable pain: Differential effects on central nervous system processing?

Central nervous system performance is disrupted by pain and by the threat of pain. It is not known whether disruption caused by the threat of pain is dependent on the likelihood of pain occurring. We hypothesised that when a painful stimulus is possible but unpredictable central nervous system performance is reduced, but when the pain is predictable and unavoidable it is not. Sixteen healthy subjects performed a reaction time task during predictable and unpredictable conditions (100% and 50% probability of pain, respectively). Group data showed increased reaction time with the threat of pain by 50 ms (95% Cl 16 to 83 ms) for the predictable condition and 46 ms (95% CI 12 to 80 ms) for the unpredictable condition (p < 0.01 for both), but there was no difference between predictable and unpredictable conditions (p = 0.41). However, individual data showed that there was a differential effect in 75% of subjects (p < 0.05 for all) and that there was a greater effect of predictable pain for some subjects and a greater effect of unpredictable pain for others. Reaction time was related to reported anxiety (r = 0.49, p = 0.02 for both conditions). The predictability of a painful stimulus may have a differential effect on central nervous system performance within individuals, but anxiety about the impending pain appears to be important in determining this effect.