A Review of Theories and Models of Design

This paper intends to provide an overview of the rich legacy of models and theories that have emerged in the last fifty years of the relatively young discipline of design research, and identifies some of the major areas of further research. It addresses the following questions: What are the major theories and models of design? How are design theory and model defined, and what is their purpose? What are the criteria they must satisfy to be considered a design theory or model? How should a theory or model of design be evaluated or validated? What are the major directions for further research?

Elasticity, yielding and episodicity in simple models of mantle convection

We explore the implications of refinements in the mechanical description of planetary constituents on the convection modes predicted by finite-element simulations. The refinements consist in the inclusion of incremental elasticity, plasticity (yielding) and multiple simultaneous creep mechanisms in addition to the usual visco-plastic models employed in the context of unified plate-mantle models. The main emphasis of this paper rests on the constitutive and computational formulation of the model. We apply a consistent incremental formulation of the non-linear governing equations avoiding the computationally expensive iterations that are otherwise necessary to handle the onset of plastic yield. In connection with episodic convection simulations, we point out the strong dependency of the results on the choice of the initial temperature distribution. Our results also indicate that the inclusion of elasticity in the constitutive relationships lowers the mechanical energy associated with subduction events.

Poisson, Poisson-gamma and zero-inflated regression models of motor vehicle crashes: balancing statistical fit and theory

There has been considerable research conducted over the last 20 years focused on predicting motor vehicle crashes on transportation facilities. The range of statistical models commonly applied includes binomial, Poisson, Poisson-gamma (or negative binomial), zero-inflated Poisson and negative binomial models (ZIP and ZINB), and multinomial probability models. Given the range of possible modeling approaches and the host of assumptions with each modeling approach, making an intelligent choice for modeling motor vehicle crash data is difficult. There is little discussion in the literature comparing different statistical modeling approaches, identifying which statistical models are most appropriate for modeling crash data, and providing a strong justification from basic crash principles. In the recent literature, it has been suggested that the motor vehicle crash process can successfully be modeled by assuming a dual-state data-generating process, which implies that entities (e.g., intersections, road segments, pedestrian crossings, etc.) exist in one of two states—perfectly safe and unsafe. As a result, the ZIP and ZINB are two models that have been applied to account for the preponderance of “excess” zeros frequently observed in crash count data. The objective of this study is to provide defensible guidance on how to appropriate model crash data. We first examine the motor vehicle crash process using theoretical principles and a basic understanding of the crash process. It is shown that the fundamental crash process follows a Bernoulli trial with unequal probability of independent events, also known as Poisson trials. We examine the evolution of statistical models as they apply to the motor vehicle crash process, and indicate how well they statistically approximate the crash process. We also present the theory behind dual-state process count models, and note why they have become popular for modeling crash data. A simulation experiment is then conducted to demonstrate how crash data give rise to “excess” zeros frequently observed in crash data. It is shown that the Poisson and other mixed probabilistic structures are approximations assumed for modeling the motor vehicle crash process. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that under certain (fairly common) circumstances excess zeros are observed—and that these circumstances arise from low exposure and/or inappropriate selection of time/space scales and not an underlying dual state process. In conclusion, carefully selecting the time/space scales for analysis, including an improved set of explanatory variables and/or unobserved heterogeneity effects in count regression models, or applying small-area statistical methods (observations with low exposure) represent the most defensible modeling approaches for datasets with a preponderance of zeros

Brivanib alaninate, a dual inhibitor of vascular endothelial growth factor receptor and fibroblast growth factor receptor tyrosine kinases, induces growth inhibition in mouse models of human hepatocellular carcinoma

PURPOSE: Hreceptor (VEGFR) and FGF receptor (FGFR) signaling pathways. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Six different s.c. patient-derived HCC xenografts were implanted into mice. Tumor growth was evaluated in mice treated with brivanib compared with control. The effects of brivanib on apoptosis and cell proliferation were evaluated by immunohistochemistry. The SK-HEP1 and HepG2 cells were used to investigate the effects of brivanib on the VEGFR-2 and FGFR-1 signaling pathways in vitro. Western blotting was used to determine changes in proteins in these xenografts and cell lines. RESULTS: Brivanib significantly suppressed tumor growth in five of six xenograft lines. Furthermore, brivanib-induced growth inhibition was associated with a decrease in phosphorylated VEGFR-2 at Tyr(1054/1059), increased apoptosis, reduced microvessel density, inhibition of cell proliferation, and down-regulation of cell cycle regulators. The levels of FGFR-1 and FGFR-2 expression in these xenograft lines were positively correlated with its sensitivity to brivanib-induced growth inhibition. In VEGF-stimulated and basic FGF stimulated SK-HEP1 cells, brivanib significantly inhibited VEGFR-2, FGFR-1, extracellular signal-regulated kinase 1/2, and Akt phosphorylation. CONCLUSION: This study provides a strong rationale for clinical investigation of brivanib in patients with HCC.

A simulation study of unified GPS and roadside ranging technologies for vehicle positioning

The future vehicle navigation for safety applications requires seamless positioning at the accuracy of sub-meter or better. However, standalone Global Positioning System (GPS) or Differential GPS (DGPS) suffer from solution outages while being used in restricted areas such as high-rise urban areas and tunnels due to the blockages of satellite signals. Smoothed DGPS can provide sub-meter positioning accuracy, but not the seamless requirement. A disadvantage of the traditional navigation aids such as Dead Reckoning and Inertial Measurement Unit onboard vehicles are either not accurate enough due to error accumulation or too expensive to be acceptable by the mass market vehicle users. One of the alternative technologies is to use the wireless infrastructure installed in roadside to locate vehicles in regions where the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) signals are not available (for example: inside tunnels, urban canyons and large indoor car parks). The examples of roadside infrastructure which can be potentially used for positioning purposes could include Wireless Local Area Network (WLAN)/Wireless Personal Area Network (WPAN) based positioning systems, Ultra-wide band (UWB) based positioning systems, Dedicated Short Range Communication (DSRC) devices, Locata’s positioning technology, and accurate road surface height information over selected road segments such as tunnels. This research reviews and compares the possible wireless technologies that could possibly be installed along roadside for positioning purposes. Models and algorithms of integrating different positioning technologies are also presented. Various simulation schemes are designed to examine the performance benefits of united GNSS and roadside infrastructure for vehicle positioning. The results from these experimental studies have shown a number of useful findings. It is clear that in the open road environment where sufficient satellite signals can be obtained, the roadside wireless measurements contribute very little to the improvement of positioning accuracy at the sub-meter level, especially in the dual constellation cases. In the restricted outdoor environments where only a few GPS satellites, such as those with 45 elevations, can be received, the roadside distance measurements can help improve both positioning accuracy and availability to the sub-meter level. When the vehicle is travelling in tunnels with known heights of tunnel surfaces and roadside distance measurements, the sub-meter horizontal positioning accuracy is also achievable. Overall, simulation results have demonstrated that roadside infrastructure indeed has the potential to provide sub-meter vehicle position solutions for certain road safety applications if the properly deployed roadside measurements are obtainable.

Survival models of community tenure and length of hospital stay for the seriously mentally ill : a 10-year perspective

Objective: To examine the effects of personal and community characteristics, specifically race and rurality, on lengths of state psychiatric hospital and community stays using maximum likelihood survival analysis with a special emphasis on change over a ten year period of time. Data Sources: We used the administrative data of the Virginia Department of Mental Health, Mental Retardation, and Substance Abuse Services (DMHMRSAS) from 1982-1991 and the Area Resources File (ARF). Given these two sources, we constructed a history file for each individual who entered the state psychiatric system over the ten year period. Histories included demographic, treatment, and community characteristics. Study Design: We used a longitudinal, population-based design with maximum likelihood estimation of survival models. We presented a random effects model with unobserved heterogeneity that was independent of observed covariates. The key dependent variables were lengths of inpatient stay and subsequent length of community stay. Explanatory variables measured personal, diagnostic, and community characteristics, as well as controls for calendar time. Data Collection: This study used secondary, administrative, and health planning data. Principal Findings: African-American clients leave the community more quickly than whites. After controlling for other characteristics, however, race does not affect hospital length of stay. Rurality does not affect length of community stays once other personal and community characteristics are controlled for. However, people from rural areas have longer hospital stays even after controlling for personal and community characteristics. The effects of time are significantly smaller than expected. Diagnostic composition effects and a decrease in the rate of first inpatient admissions explain part of this reduced impact of time. We also find strong evidence for the existence of unobserved heterogeneity in both types of stays and adjust for this in our final models. Conclusions: Our results show that information on client characteristics available from inpatient stay records is useful in predicting not only the length of inpatient stay but also the length of the subsequent community stay. This information can be used to target increased discharge planning for those at risk of more rapid readmission to inpatient care. Correlation across observed and unobserved factors affecting length of stay has significant effects on the measurement of relationships between individual factors and lengths of stay. Thus, it is important to control for both observed and unobserved factors in estimation.

Magnetic superconductors: Model theories and experimental properties of rare-earth compounds

Superconducting and magnetically long-range ordered states were believed to be mutually exclusive phenomena. The discovery of rare-earth compounds in recent years, which exhibit both superconductivity and magnetic ordering (ferromagnetic, antiferromagnetic or sinusoidal), has led to considerable theoretical and experimental work on such systems. In the present article, we give a review of various theoretical models and important experimental results. In the theoretical sections, we start with the Abrikosov-Gorkov pair breaking theory for dilute alloys and discuss its improvement in the work of Müller-Hartmann and Zittartz. Then, in the context of magnetic superconductors, various microscopic theories that have been advanced are presented. These predict re-entrant behaviour in some systems (ferromagnetic superconductors) and coexistence regions in others (particularly antiferromagnetic superconductors). Following this, phenomenological generalized Ginzburg-Landau theories for two kinds of orders (superconducting and magnetic) are presented. A section dealing with renormalization group analysis of phase diagrams in magnetic superconductors is given. In experimental sections, the properties of each rare-earth compounds (ternary as well as some tetranery) are reviewed. These involve susceptibility, heat capacity, resistivity, upper critical field, neutron scattering and magnetic resonance measurements. The anomalous behaviour of the upper critical field of antiferromagnetic superconductors near the Néel temperature is discussed both in theory sections and experimental section for various systems.

Comparison of Various Adhesion Contact Theories and the Influence of Dimensionless Load Parameter

Three models, JKR (Johnson, Kendall and Roberts), DMT (Derjaguin, Muller, and Toporov) andMD (Maugis-Dugdale),are compared with the Hertz model in dealing with nano-contact problems. It has been shown that both the dimensionless load parameter, P D P=.1/4

Three-dimensional models of mantle convection : influence of phase transitions and temperature-dependent viscosity

Two of the most important questions in mantle dynamics are investigated in three separate studies: the influence of phase transitions (studies 1 and 2), and the influence of temperature-dependent viscosity (study 3).

(1) Numerical modeling of mantle convection in a three-dimensional spherical shell incorporating the two major mantle phase transitions reveals an inherently three-dimensional flow pattern characterized by accumulation of cold downwellings above the 670 km discontinuity, and cylindrical 'avalanches' of upper mantle material into the lower mantle. The exothermic phase transition at 400 km depth reduces the degree of layering. A region of strongly-depressed temperature occurs at the base of the mantle. The temperature field is strongly modulated by this partial layering, both locally and in globally-averaged diagnostics. Flow penetration is strongly wavelength-dependent, with easy penetration at long wavelengths but strong inhibition at short wavelengths. The amplitude of the geoid is not significantly affected.

(2) Using a simple criterion for the deflection of an upwelling or downwelling by an endothermic phase transition, the scaling of the critical phase buoyancy parameter with the important lengthscales is obtained. The derived trends match those observed in numerical simulations, i.e., deflection is enhanced by (a) shorter wavelengths, (b) narrower up/downwellings (c) internal heating and (d) narrower phase loops.

(3) A systematic investigation into the effects of temperature-dependent viscosity on mantle convection has been performed in three-dimensional Cartesian geometry, with a factor of 1000-2500 viscosity variation, and Rayleigh numbers of 10^5-10^7. Enormous differences in model behavior are found, depending on the details of rheology, heating mode, compressibility and boundary conditions. Stress-free boundaries, compressibility, and temperature-dependent viscosity all favor long-wavelength flows, even in internally heated cases. However, small cells are obtained with some parameter combinations. Downwelling plumes and upwelling sheets are possible when viscosity is dependent solely on temperature. Viscous dissipation becomes important with temperature-dependent viscosity.

The sensitivity of mantle flow and structure to these various complexities illustrates the importance of performing mantle convection calculations with rheological and thermodynamic properties matching as closely as possible those of the Earth.

A theory of strong and weak scintillations with applications to astrophysics

The propagation of waves in an extended, irregular medium is studied under the "quasi-optics" and the "Markov random process" approximations. Under these assumptions, a Fokker-Planck equation satisfied by the characteristic functional of the random wave field is derived. A complete set of the moment equations with different transverse coordinates and different wavenumbers is then obtained from the characteristic functional. The derivation does not require Gaussian statistics of the random medium and the result can be applied to the time-dependent problem. We then solve the moment equations for the phase correlation function, angular broadening, temporal pulse smearing, intensity correlation function, and the probability distribution of the random waves. The necessary and sufficient conditions for strong scintillation are also given.

We also consider the problem of diffraction of waves by a random, phase-changing screen. The intensity correlation function is solved in the whole Fresnel diffraction region and the temporal pulse broadening function is derived rigorously from the wave equation.

The method of smooth perturbations is applied to interplanetary scintillations. We formulate and calculate the effects of the solar-wind velocity fluctuations on the observed intensity power spectrum and on the ratio of the observed "pattern" velocity and the true velocity of the solar wind in the three-dimensional spherical model. The r.m.s. solar-wind velocity fluctuations are found to be ~200 km/sec in the region about 20 solar radii from the Sun.

We then interpret the observed interstellar scintillation data using the theories derived under the Markov approximation, which are also valid for the strong scintillation. We find that the Kolmogorov power-law spectrum with an outer scale of 10 to 100 pc fits the scintillation data and that the ambient averaged electron density in the interstellar medium is about 0.025 cm^-3. It is also found that there exists a region of strong electron density fluctuation with thickness ~10 pc and mean electron density ~7 cm^-3 between the PSR 0833-45 pulsar and the earth.

Unified modelling in support of organization design and change

The aim of this research is to provide a unified modelling-based method to help with the evaluation of organization design and change decisions. Relevant literature regarding model-driven organization design and change is described. This helps identify the requirements for a new modelling methodology. Such a methodology is developed and described. The three phases of the developed method include the following. First, the use of CIMOSA-based multi-perspective enterprise modelling to understand and capture the most enduring characteristics of process-oriented organizations and externalize various types of requirement knowledge about any target organization. Second, the use of causal loop diagrams to identify dynamic causal impacts and effects related to the issues and constraints on the organization under study. Third, the use of simulation modelling to quantify the effects of each issue in terms of organizational performance. The design and case study application of a unified modelling method based on CIMOSA (computer integrated manufacturing open systems architecture) enterprise modelling, causal loop diagrams, and simulation modelling, is explored to illustrate its potential to support systematic organization design and change. Further application of the proposed methodology in various company and industry sectors, especially in manufacturing sectors, would be helpful to illustrate complementary uses and relative benefits and drawbacks of the methodology in different types of organization. The proposed unified modelling-based method provides a systematic way of enabling key aspects of organization design and change. The case company, its relevant data, and developed models help to explore and validate the proposed method. The application of CIMOSA-based unified modelling method and integrated application of these three modelling techniques within a single solution space constitutes an advance on previous best practice. Also, the purpose and application domain of the proposed method offers an addition to knowledge. © IMechE 2009.

Differential and numerical models of hysteretic systems with stochastic and deterministic inputs

Many deterministic models with hysteresis have been developed in the areas of economics, finance, terrestrial hydrology and biology. These models lack any stochastic element which can often have a strong effect in these areas. In this work stochastically driven closed loop systems with hysteresis type memory are studied. This type of system is presented as a possible stochastic counterpart to deterministic models in the areas of economics, finance, terrestrial hydrology and biology. Some price dynamics models are presented as a motivation for the development of this type of model. Numerical schemes for solving this class of stochastic differential equation are developed in order to examine the prototype models presented. As a means of further testing the developed numerical schemes, numerical examination is made of the behaviour near equilibrium of coupled ordinary differential equations where the time derivative of the Preisach operator is included in one of the equations. A model of two phenotype bacteria is also presented. This model is examined to explore memory effects and related hysteresis effects in the area of biology. The memory effects found in this model are similar to that found in the non-ideal relay. This non-ideal relay type behaviour is used to model a colony of bacteria with multiple switching thresholds. This model contains a Preisach type memory with a variable Preisach weight function. Shown numerically for this multi-threshold model is a pattern formation for the distribution of the phenotypes among the available thresholds.